state of play: 09/23/2020
STATE OF PLAY: Politico Pro on EC's Merger Policy Shift for Orlen, PiS Politician on "Ziobro Cracking," Dąbrowska: PM Passed Kaczyński's Loyalty Test, Karnowski: Ugly Hate Speech Against Szydło
-- WE PREVENTED SOLIDARNA POLSKA FROM OVERSTEPPING ITS BOUNDS - TERLECKI IN THE SEJM, KAMIŃSKI ON MORAWIECKI'S HIGH MORAL STANDING, SOBOLEWSKI ON THE STATE VETERINARY INSPECTION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/09/23/
-- POLITICO PRO REPORTS THAT THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION INITIALLY EXPECTED THE SALE OF THE ENTIRE GDAŃSK REFINERY, BUT FOR ORLEN, THIS WAS A CONDITION THAT MADE THE DEAL IMPOSSIBLE. ORLEN was not inclined towards divestment, and the final remedies negotiated represent an optimal solution for both companies.
-- POLITICO WRITES THAT THE EC CHANGED ITS APPROACH REGARDING ORLEN, DESPITE VESTAGER BLOCKING THE ALSTOM-SIEMENS MERGER IN A SIMILAR SITUATION: "An unusual decision, giving the green light to a transaction that will essentially reduce the number of market players from two to one." Politico writes that the decision opens another stage in the discussion on liberalizing the European Commission's merger and acquisition policy, which has been a hot topic since Vestager blocked the rail sector merger between the French company Alstom and the German conglomerate Siemens last year. Since that decision, Poland, along with France and Germany, has joined the group of countries exerting strong political pressure on Brussels to encourage a more flexible approach to mergers and acquisitions. The aim is to strike a balance between competition in specific markets and the actual national needs to ensure the functioning and development of key energy companies. The approval of the Orlen-Lotos merger could set a precedent for other politically motivated mergers, such as the potential merger of the Italian shipyard Fincantieri and the French shipyard Chantiers de l’Atlantique.
https://pro.politico.eu/news/how-vestager-took-polands-side-in-a-controversial-energy-deal
-- GOWIN TO GET A SEAT ON THE TVP BOARD? - GW REPORT: “Jarosław Kaczyński is getting closer to the Deputy Prime Minister position. Zbigniew Ziobro is voting for statutory "impunity plus." Jarosław Gowin is to get a place for his man on the TVP board – this is how the United Right negotiations are proceeding, according to our sources.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26330102,zrodla-wyborczej-szybka-zgoda-w-zjednoczonej-prawicy-kaczynski.html
-- KRZYSZTOF KARNOWSKI IN GPC ON TRZASKOWSKI'S TRAP THAT IS AFFECTING THE RIGHT: “After the presidential elections, Rafał Trzaskowski's circle fell into wishful thinking and assumed that since their candidate received 10 million votes in the second round, a political force indicated by him in subsequent parliamentary elections could count on similar support. Regardless of whether it would be a movement bearing his name or the old Civic Platform, which has so far been unable to break free from a series of defeats. I have termed this way of thinking for my own use the 'Trzaskowski error.' Recent days show that in the United Right, including PiS itself, there are many people close to falling into a similar trap.”
-- HOWEVER, THIS WOULD NOT MEAN AN EASY VICTORY FOR THE RIGHT - KARNKOWSKI CONTINUES: “However, the dominant prospect is the formation of a minority government, which would precede early elections, as if the coalition were absolutely unsalvageable. The problem is that while neither Porozumienie nor Solidarna Polska have a chance to enter the Sejm on their own, it does not mean (and here we return to the 'Trzaskowski error') that Law and Justice will be able to win the next elections to the extent that would allow them to form a government for the third time. Although the opposition is currently in disarray, in some polls from before the latest turmoil, the combined votes for PO (as a single party or with a separate Trzaskowski movement) are close to outweighing the sympathy for PiS.”
https://m.niezalezna.pl/353420-zjednoczona-prawica-i-blad-trzaskowskiego
-- SURPRISE IN PiS THAT ZIOBRO CRACKED SO QUICKLY - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL “Zbigniew Ziobro wanted to take a hard line over the weekend, but by Monday noon, he was already publicly asking Jarosław Kaczyński for a conversation. There is even surprise in PiS that he 'cracked' so quickly. - If I were in Zbyszek's shoes, I wouldn't give up yet - says a PiS politician well acquainted with Ziobro. However, a Solidarna Polska politician claims that the signal about the possibility of resuming talks came from Nowogrodzka Street, which is why Ziobro softened his tone.”
-- GĄDEK RECONSTRUCTS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL PRESSURE EXERTED BY PiS ON ZIOBRO: “The PiS headquarters ensured the strongest possible pressure on Ziobro. This included organizing a public recruitment for a position to replace the supposedly to be dismissed Zbigniew Ziobro. It also involved generating media narratives that the decision to dismiss Ziobro had already been made. It's not by chance that Małgorzata Wassermann and Arkadiusz Mularczyk – potential successors to the Minister of Justice – were invited to the late Friday meeting of the PiS leadership in Krakow. The name Przemysław Czarnek also quickly emerged in the media as a potential candidate for the head of the ministry. - Czarnek would very much like to be this minister, but if Ziobro remains in the Ministry of Justice, I wouldn't envy Przemek. Zbyszek remembers such things – a PiS politician tells us.”
-- HE COULDN'T HANDLE THE STRESS - GĄDEK QUOTES A PiS POLITICIAN ON ZIOBRO: “The pressure on Ziobro was and continues to be immense. A politician close to the coalition negotiations: - Ziobro carried himself with dignity, but it's evident he couldn't handle the psychological stress. His decision was most influenced by his psychological weakness. He cracks under such stressful situations. The prospect of dismissal from his ministerial post, the removal of all his associates from the government, and his own people and family members – his wife and brother – from State Treasury companies. Additionally, Nowogrodzka would attempt to break up the 19-member 'Ziobrist' group in the Sejm, by drawing at least some of them to their side.”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,26327054,ziobro-chcial-isc-na-ostro-w-pis-az-zdziwienie-ze-pekl.html
-- THE PRIME MINISTER PASSED KACZYŃSKI'S LOYALTY TEST, FOR WHICH KACZYŃSKI IS NOW REWARDING HIM - ANNA DĄBROWSKA IN POLITYKA: “Let's recall that Kaczyński promised the Prime Minister protection, and the passage of this law is one of the conditions now being presented to Ziobro. The Prime Minister passed the loyalty test before the party leader and signed the papers for the May postal elections, even though he was aware that he was not acting in accordance with the law. Now Kaczyński wants to reward him for this loyalty. This is understandable, especially since he has political hopes pinned on Morawiecki.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1972254,1,walka-na-haki-kaczynski-zabierze-ziobrze-prokurature.read?src=mt
-- THE OPPOSITION CLAIMS THAT PLATFORMA IS HELPING ZIOBRO - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “Interestingly, former Platform leader and former Prime Minister Donald Tusk previously stated that the opposition should not 'hinder' the United Right in developing its crisis. Solidarna Polska politicians quickly responded to the Coalition's motion. As Deputy Minister of State Assets Janusz Kowalski wrote on Twitter, 'fear is creeping into the eyes of PO politicians. The day after Zbigniew Ziobro's conference regarding the successes of prosecutors subordinate to him in the Sławomir Nowak case, PO files a motion for dismissal.' Politicians from other opposition parties, reacting to the motion, argue that Platforma has decided to support Zbigniew Ziobro and has made a significant political mistake. There is not much trust within the parliamentary opposition, partly due to the crisis caused by the vote on salary increases in mid-August.”
https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/309229884-Prezes-Kaczynski-postawil-warunki-i-czeka-na-Ziobre.html
-- PiS IS BEST PREPARED FOR ELECTIONS - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “In conversations, PiS politicians point out that, firstly, after the hypothetical removal of SP from the United Right, PiS will still be able to block a potential motion for self-dissolution of the Sejm, which requires 307 deputies. Thus, it will not lose its fundamental control over political developments. Secondly, the example of the animal protection act shows that the opposition is ready to support laws that are popular with their electorate. After the crisis caused by the price increases, politicians – especially from Civic Coalition – fear a revolt from their own voters, especially since they now have an alternative – Szymon Hołownia's movement. In this way, the government could continue to implement parts of its agenda, especially that which leads PiS in a new direction (like '5 for Animals'). There is also no doubt that a year after the parliamentary elections, PiS is the best prepared for the next ones, especially in terms of structures, socio-research apparatus, and know-how. The same cannot be said about the opposition. PO has not yet rebuilt its support base, Trzaskowski's movement has not yet launched, Hołownia continues his grassroots work, but – as we hear – the first internal tensions have already appeared in building its structures.”
https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/309229892-Michal-Kolanko-Jak-rzadzic--bez-wiekszosci.html
-- WHAT THE MEDIA OF THE THIRD POLISH REPUBLIC ARE DOING TO SZYDŁO IS A DISGRACE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “It must be said again that what the media of the Third Polish Republic are doing to Prime Minister Szydło is a disgrace. But the silence of her colleagues is also a great shame. Many of them owe a lot to the former Prime Minister, and Poland also owes a lot to her. And yet, not a single word is uttered to say that this is unacceptable, that such actions against a woman of class are hate speech. No, they rush to the same media to praise each other and to be seen in supposedly chance encounters. There is no need for repolonization here; what is needed is a little ordinary decency. If politics has an ugly side, then in this tacit acceptance of hate speech towards Prime Minister Szydło, we see one of its ugliest manifestations. And all because she remains one of the most popular politicians and has never, ever fawned over the elites of the Third Polish Republic, remaining faithful to her relationship with the voters. At least let us, those who observe politics from the sidelines, protest.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/518705-to-co-media-iii-rp-robia-premier-szydlo-jest-hanba
-- IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY POSITIVE CONSEQUENCES FROM THE OFFENSIVE AGAINST LGBT PEOPLE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “But it is also worth considering who started this offensive. No one forced President Duda to scare people with LGBT ideology. No one forced MP Przemysław Czarnek to say that homosexuals are not equal to normal people. And finally, who forced local governments to adopt resolutions? It is therefore worth considering the balance sheet of this campaign, which the Polish right has launched. What good has come of it? What benefits have local governments gained from adopting these resolutions? And what consequences has it brought for the image of the Polish right, the ruling camp, the Church, or even for the image of Poland? It is truly difficult to find any positive outcomes.”
-- MINDLESSLY SERVING TRADITIONALISM WITH A HOMOPHOBIC SAUCE - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “This does not mean that Poland should change its laws for this reason alone and introduce, for example, same-sex marriages with the right to adopt children. Poland is a sovereign state that makes its own decisions regarding its legislation. Poland has the right to maintain its traditionalist legislation concerning family matters. The question is whether it makes sense to mindlessly serve one's traditionalism with a homophobic sauce and use discriminatory language in the process. In my opinion, no.”
https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/200929821-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Bilans-uchwal-o-ideologii-LGBT.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Jach, Katarzyna Piekarska, Jakub Górnicki, Michał Sznajder
Mirosława Nykiel, Elżbieta Stępień.
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