state of play: 09/21/2020
STATE OF PLAY: Is the Opposition Ready for Elections? Matyja: Have Mercy! Stankiewicz on Szydło's Absence from Retoryka, PiS Politician at Makowski's: It Cannot Be That a Group of Young ZZ Acolytes Sets Our Agenda on TVN
-- ORTYL REMOVES ZIOBRO AND GOWIN REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE PODKARPACIE REGIONAL ASSEMBLY BOARD - GW: “- On Friday, Marshal Władysław Ortyl informed me that I might be dismissed from the board. It will depend on whether PiS formally dissolves the coalition with Porozumienie and Solidarna Polska,” says Stanisław Kruczek, a member of the provincial board associated with Porozumienie. Besides him, Anna Huk from Solidarna Polska received similar information. The motion to dismiss the coalition partners will be presented at the regional assembly session, which will take place on September 28. - The draft resolutions must be included in the agenda 7 days before the session. I believe the resolutions to dismiss us from the board are already prepared,” adds Kruczek. https://rzeszow.wyborcza.pl/rzeszow/7,34962,26321895,podkarpacie-pis-usuwa-z-zarzadu-wojewodztwa-koalicjantow-z.html
-- ABOUT KACZYŃSKI'S TRUE INTENTIONS, 4-5 PEOPLE KNOW - RAFAŁ MATYJA IN CONVERSATION WITH AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO: “Sometimes Kaczyński says things intended to provoke us, calculated for a reaction from commentators, like the words about a worse sort. But this is not the case. It's not about the satisfaction that we, commentators, don't know what he's getting at. Ziobro and Gowin are also unsure of what will happen. Although they might assume this game has some purpose. Even someone with access to PiS sources might be misled. If someone is at odds with Kaczyński, they also might not know what's going on. I don't know the intention here. Perhaps four or five people in Kaczyński's inner circle know?”
-- GAMES CALCULATED TO MISLEAD THE OPPONENT - MATYJA FURTHER IN OKO: “Kaczyński is a good tactician. But he is not infallible, and above all, he operates in an environment that is constantly learning to interpret his actions. And it's doing it better and better. This was already evident in Gowin's spring victory. It's evident in the game Ziobro is playing. Kaczyński likes risk; he is not a politician who only takes on challenges where victory is almost certain. But I emphasize: many of the actions he takes are games calculated to mislead the opponent.”
-- KACZYŃSKI IS TOO GOOD A PLAYER TO SAY THAT IF HE LOST SOMETHING ONCE, HE WOULDN'T CONSIDER IT AGAIN - MATYJA FURTHER: “It's quite popular to claim that Kaczyński lost early elections once, and therefore he won't do it again. But Kaczyński is too good a player to say that just because he lost something once, he won't consider it again. He will. But he will be more cautious. Frankly speaking: we don't know what will happen. However, I wouldn't rule out elections, although it seems less likely to me than solidifying the current arrangement on Kaczyński's terms. This signal that he is ready to go for elections was not only directed at Ziobro and Gowin, who likely had to dismiss it. It was primarily directed at his own parliamentary club. It was an attempt to see who would take a risk within their own party. If only the Gowinites and Ziobrists opposed him, the matter would be clear. And Kaczyński saw that even with the threat of 'you will definitely not be on the election lists,' some part of his own people let him down. Why did Henryk Kowalczyk behave like that? It's very interesting. He is a very important person for PiS in the previous term.”
-- HAVE MERCY! - MATYJA IN RESPONSE TO SZCZĘŚNIAK'S QUESTION: “Is the opposition prepared for elections?
- Have mercy!”
-- PERHAPS THE CIVIC PLATFORM IS PREPARED FOR ELECTIONS WITHIN THE PLATFORM… - MATYJA FURTHER AT SZCZĘŚNIAK'S: “Perhaps the Civic Platform is prepared for elections within the Platform, but not nationwide. It didn't capitalize on the advantage given by Trzaskowski's good result. It was a very good moment to start thinking and behaving differently, to improve relations within the opposition, and to set the agenda for PiS. But then the number of gaffes, mistakes, and wrong moves exceeded my expectations. The Civic Platform has efficiently returned to the situation from April. These elections would still be held in the old style. The dynamics of transformation, both on the side of the government and the opposition, will begin if there are no elections.”
-- A STRANGE SOCIAL MOVEMENT, THE CIVIC PLATFORM'S POSITION IS STILL VERY WEAK - MATYJA FURTHER: “People from the Civic Platform will wonder where this party is heading. There is disappointment there. The July maneuver with a grand coalition to raise politicians' salaries was an absolute catastrophe for the opposition and trust in its common sense. One cannot defend democracy against PiS for five years and then say, 'As for our income, PiS is quite a good partner, and we will come to an agreement.' If there is anyone there who thinks about a good result and regaining a position that allows for taking power, they should draw conclusions. This path will certainly not lead to victory. Nor will it come from counting on Borys Budka as a leader to restore the PO to the glory it had under Tusk. That's completely unbelievable. One will not win through the path Trzaskowski took: a strange social movement, with very unclear relationships and with existing social entities, and with the Civic Platform. The Civic Platform's proposal is still very weak, and the new quality that Trzaskowski was supposed to represent also doesn't make a big impression. I'm not talking about his slip-ups; I don't see any interesting ideas there.”
-- PEOPLE AREN'T TALKING ABOUT TRZASKOWSKI'S MOVEMENT - MATYJA AGAIN: “Here, Janusz Palikot's measure can be applied: important things happen in politics when the street, the average person, talks about them. Hołownia's appearance is already such a fact; the presidential election results showed this. Trzaskowski's movement has not become such a thing and will find it very difficult to do so.” https://oko.press/ten-konflikt-wzial-sie-z-glowy-kaczynskiego-rozmowa-z-prof-matyja/
-- JACEK KARNOWSKI APPEALS FOR MUTUAL RESPECT ON THE RIGHT: “It is no accident that the United Right wins. It wins because it has good leadership and is a construct that appeals to various voter groups. It is a construct rooted in patriotism, Christianity, and the desire to change the Third Polish Republic, yet it knows how to translate these attitudes or slogans into a concrete program that is effectively implemented. A new proposal might play, but it truly doesn't have to. That would be a new era, however. So far, nothing has happened that would prevent a return to talks and finding an agreement acceptable to all. Therefore, we must appeal for mutual respect, reason, and humility. Because not only will voters not forgive right-wing politicians for the fall – suicide? – of this government; history will also not forgive it. Because if the Third Polish Republic returns to power, it will not let go of it quickly again. The price Poland will pay will be very high.”
-- KARNOWSKI ON THE EXCITEMENT OF THE III RP MEDIA: “It is characteristic that the left-liberal media, the media of the Third Polish Republic, are most excited about the conflict within the United Right. Oh, how they delve into every detail, how they celebrate every announcement of escalation, how they rejoice at the vision of unhealable wounds from the perspective of the fall of a political construct built and led by Jarosław Kaczyński. It's hard to be surprised: after a series of four election defeats, they might get a chance for a rematch out of nothing, with high chances of success. Right-wing, conservative media have nothing to celebrate; a head-on collision will bring nothing good, even if some participants in this game think so. It is a great illusion.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/518462-nie-tylko-wyborcy-nie-wybacza-liderom-upadku-tej-wladzy
-- IT HASN'T BEEN THIS BAD BETWEEN KACZYŃSKI AND ZIOBRO SINCE 2014 - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONE: “The relations between Ziobro and Kaczyński haven't been this bad since 2014 when they began their cooperation anew. Earlier, for a decade, Ziobro worked in PiS and rose to the position of vice-chairman, but in 2011, he provoked his expulsion and created his own party, Solidarna Polska. On Friday, at the PiS leadership meeting in Krakow, Beata Szydło was absent – the most sympathetic to Ziobro among the party leaders. This was interpreted unequivocally: Kaczyński does not want to hear the arguments of Ziobro's defenders.”
-- STANKIEWICZ ON PURGES IN COMPANIES: “It is possible that in the coming days, Kaczyński will expel Ziobro from the coalition and the government, and perhaps also Jarosław Gowin, who indeed fell out of favor with the leader in the spring when he blocked the postal presidential elections. Consequently, Gowin's people, and especially the Ziobrists – led by Ziobro's wife and brother – would be removed from state-owned companies. This would be an impressive revenge by Kaczyński and a humiliation for the leaders of Solidarna Polska and Porozumienie.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/kryzys-w-zjednoczonej-prawicy-andrzej-stankiewicz-zp-grozi-rozpad-co-zrobi-kaczynski/twxkg81,79cfc278
-- REGARDLESS OF THE NUMBER OF MEDIA APPEARANCES, THEY DON'T EXIST AS AN AUTONOMOUS FORCE - MARCIN MAKOWSKI ON WP: “Regardless of the number of media appearances, organized press conferences, taking over the conservative agenda on one hand, and the pro-business agenda on the other – Law and Justice's coalition partners have, over five years of joint government, blended so much into the image of the ruling party that they practically do not exist in voters' consciousness as autonomous entities.”
-- THE ABSENCE OF COALITION PARTNERS MAY ENABLE GOVERNANCE - MAKOWSKI FURTHER: “Even if it's true that 'the tail wags the dog,' and Gowin and Ziobro have overestimated their position – in reality shining with borrowed light from Law and Justice – their absence from the coalition may effectively prevent them from governing independently.”
-- IT CANNOT BE THAT A GROUP OF HIS YOUNG ACOLYTES SETS OUR AGENDA ON TVN - A PiS POLITICIAN QUOTED BY MAKOWSKI: “Today, we all ask ourselves if Ziobro will cool down. If necessary, we will go to elections because it cannot be that a group of his young acolytes sets our political agenda on TVN, but that is a last resort,” says a politician from Nowogrodzka. “Our poll shows that the game will indeed continue until the end, and its outcome is a great unknown today. Perhaps too great to go in this direction blindly. For now, at least until the end of Sunday, it's a political calm before the storm.” https://opinie.wp.pl/makowski-solidarna-polska-i-porozumienie-bez-pis-u-nie-istnieja-ale-moga-pokrzyzowac-plan-kaczynskiego-opinia-6556143483955712a
-- A MINORITY GOVERNMENT OPENS UP POSSIBILITIES FOR KACZYŃSKI - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON RZ: “At the same time, moving to a minority government option opens up several new possibilities for Jarosław Kaczyński. Removing Ziobro from the government (Porozumienie's fate is still uncertain), but also from state-owned companies, significantly weakens the negotiating position of the coalition partner, to whom Kaczyński could, after some time, offer a return on new terms. The expulsion of Solidarna Polska, on the other hand, could serve the line that Mateusz Morawiecki has been suggesting to Kaczyński for some time – focusing on the economy, fighting the crisis, pursuing a more pragmatic than ideological policy. Ziobro's departure, who has become very radicalized in this regard, could lend credibility to this turn towards the center, which is essential for PiS if it wants to gain new voters and compete for victory in 2023. Paradoxically, such a move also increases PiS's coalition capacity in talks with, for example, the PSL or politicians associated with Paweł Kukiz or other representatives of the political center.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200929966-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Requiem-dla-Zjednoczonej-Prawicy.html
-- KACZYŃSKI HAS THE ACES, ZIOBRO HAS TRICKS - ANTONI DUDEK ON RZ: “The problem with the Ziobrists and Gowinists is that they are not parties with strong identities, focused around charismatic leaders, that have ever crossed the electoral threshold and could risk parting ways with PiS. Ziobro, moreover, experienced such a separation himself years ago, so it seems that in the current situation, he will finally capitulate. He is bluffing, but the time will come when he will have to show his cards, and it is Kaczyński who has the aces, he rather just the tricks. However, even if his people stood firm with him, let's remember that it's not as if Solidarna Polska would vote against PiS on every issue. If the PiS leader wanted to deconcentrate the media or, even more so, continue changes in the judiciary, it would be hard to expect Solidarna Polska not to support it.”
-- KACZYŃSKI HAS INVESTED TOO MUCH IN MORAWIECKI - DUDEK FURTHER: “Both started from the level of a minister in Beata Szydło's government, with Ziobro initially being significantly more important, and after a few years, their roles reversed. Their conflict is further exacerbated because there is a group of politicians in PiS who would gladly get rid of Morawiecki, and Ziobro is a convenient ally for them in fighting him. However, I have the impression that Kaczyński has invested too much in Morawiecki to agree to his departure at the cost of reconciliation with Ziobro. That would be a form of capitulation on his part.” https://www.rp.pl/Wywiady-i-rozmowy/309209945-Antoni-Dudek-To-Jaroslaw-Kaczynski-ma-mocniejsze-karty.html
-- KEMPA'S POSITION BROUGHT NOTHING BUT CHAOS - GW ON NIK REPORT: “As NIK (Supreme Audit Office) stated, the creation of the position held by Beata Kempa 'brought nothing new.' Moreover, it led to decision-making chaos. For a considerable period, within the government administration, as the report states: 'two independent humanitarian aid centers functioned, whose competencies partially overlapped.'” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26320048,beata-kempa-duzo-szumu-malo-efektu.html
-- 23 YEARS AGO, Akcja Wyborcza Solidarność (AWS) won the parliamentary elections.
-- YESTERDAY, KRZYSZTOF SOBOLEWSKI CELEBRATED HIS BIRTHDAY.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Jan Olbrycht, Tadeusz Jarmuziewicz, Jolanta Fedak, Waldemar Buda.
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