state of play: 09/04/2020

GAME STATE: Poll Shows Strong Increase in PM Morawiecki's Approval, Osiatyński: Large-Scale Aid Spending Prevented Household Collapse, Sutryk: Even the Government Managed the Crisis Adeptly, Business Insider: PKO BP Leads in State Contributions

Łukasz Mężyk

-- CYCLICAL CBOS SURVEY ON TRUST IN THE GOVERNMENT: -- Stance towards the government: 42% supporters (+2 p.p. m/m), 29% opponents (-5 p.p.), 24% indifferent (+1 p.p.), 4% hard to say (+1 p.p.). -- Assessment of the government's performance: 52% good (+2 p.p.), 34% bad (-3 p.p.), 14% hard to say (+1 p.p.). -- Does government policy create opportunities for economic improvement? 48% yes (+2 p.p.), 39% no (-4 p.p.), 12% hard to say (+1 p.p.). -- Satisfaction with Mateusz Morawiecki as Prime Minister: 52% yes (+5 p.p.), 34% no (-3 p.p.), 14% hard to say (-2 p.p.). -- Survey period: August 18-27, 2020, N=1149 people. -- NOVICHOK, LIKE A KREMLIN OFFICIAL STAMP - AGNIESZKA BRYC ON POLITICS: “Novichok in Navalny's body is like a Kremlin official stamp. How will the West react to this situation, and how will the increasingly frustrated Russian society? (...) The Kremlin's calculations may founder on one unknown: Western solidarity. If a common stance towards Russia can be developed, not just rhetorical, the West will prove that its coherence is increasingly difficult to break, and values are not just a label for it. Pażywiom, udwidim (We will live, we will see) – as the Russians say.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1970018,1,czy-zachod-ukarze-kreml-za-sprawe-nawalnego.read?src=mt -- LATUSZKA IN THE SEJM: BELARUSIANS EXPECT A STRONGER EUROPEAN UNION VOICE - BELSAT: “Łatuszka argued that Belarusian society, which obtains information from various sources, does not believe President Aleksander Lukashenko's and state television's claims about Poland's or Lithuania's interference in Belarus's internal affairs. – In truth, as a diplomat with over twenty years of experience, I cannot confirm any instance of Poland or Lithuania interfering in Belarus's internal affairs. I cannot always say the same about our other neighbors – Łatuszka emphasized. MP Tyszkiewicz told PAP that during the meeting of the group, Łatuszka 'pointed out that there must be a stronger voice from the European Union.' – He said that Belarusians are now greatly anticipating a firm, strong voice from the EU, because repressions are returning again – he stressed.” https://belsat.eu/pl/news/latuszka-w-sejmie-bialorusini-oczekuja-silniejszego-glosu-unii-europejskiej/ -- WHO IS THE GRANDMOTHER WITH THE FLAG? - BELSAT: “Hundreds of thousands of protests in Belarus unite many groups – from students through workers to retirees. However, there are individuals who have become their symbol, and among them is the tireless opposition activist Nina Bahinskaya, also known as the ‘grandmother with the flag’.” https://belsat.eu/pl/news/nina-bahinskaja-kim-jest-babuszka-z-flaga/ -- MAINTAINING HOUSEHOLD PURCHASING POWER ENSURED A SOFTER ECONOMIC DOWNTURN - PROF. JERZY OSIATYŃSKI, MINISTER OF FINANCE IN HANNA SUCHOCKA'S GOVERNMENT IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI ON KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Even when we regain and exceed these 'pre-COVID' growth rates, we will still have to compensate for this nominal loss in income for some time. But despite this, in Poland these losses are relatively smaller than in most European countries. Similar to Poland, packages to protect businesses and their employees were introduced practically throughout Europe and beyond. This allowed consumption to be maintained at a slightly lower, but not dramatically lower, level than before the pandemic outbreak. With a large share of consumption in GDP and consumption dynamics in the growth rate – as is the case in Poland – maintaining household purchasing power has ensured a milder economic downturn and may allow for a quick recovery of losses after this downturn.” -- THANKS TO AID PACKAGES, CONSUMPTION LEVELS WERE MAINTAINED: - OSIATYŃSKI CONTINUES WITH SUTOWSKI: “Thanks to aid packages, consumption levels were roughly maintained for food and essential goods. In recent months, this consumption has even increased. Additionally, many people used the period of mandatory stay-at-home for renovations, not only in Poland, which led to an increase in our building material exports. I see this as a second factor that somehow cushioned the economic slowdown in Q2 and Q3, namely the decent export dynamics, which, although falling, is falling slower than imports. This also helps growth. Similar to the milder course of the pandemic in Poland so far compared to other European countries, not to mention Brazil or the United States.” -- ALL THIS IS A GOOD OMEN - OSIATYŃSKI CONTINUES: “All this is a good omen. Of course, there will be a GDP drop in 2020, but I estimate it to be less than in the NBP forecast or in the assumptions of the amended budget, somewhere around minus 4 percent, maybe even less.” -- LARGE-SCALE AID SPENDING PREVENTED A DROP IN HOUSEHOLD PURCHASING POWER - OSIATYŃSKI WITH SUTOWSKI: “It was the large-scale aid spending that allowed us to halt the decline in the purchasing power of working households and ensured that the primary component of GDP and its growth dynamics, which is consumption, did not weaken so significantly.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/jerzy-osiatynski-koronawirus-gospodarka-rozmowa-sutowskiego/ -- EVEN THE GOVERNMENT MANAGED THE CRISIS ADEPTLY - JACEK SUTRYK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “Considering how unpredictable this whole situation was and is, and what our habits and customs were, I believe society passed the exam. Even the government, as much as possible, managed the crisis adeptly. In light of the forecasts at the time, decisions were made to first freeze everything and then to return to 'normality.' It must be said that we all passed this exam reasonably well. There were no situations of overcrowded hospitals or mass graves. Yet, such dramas occurred in Europe. Therefore, in general terms, I assess the Council of Ministers' actions so far positively.” -- IF I WERE ATTACKING THE GOVERNMENT JUST FOR THE SAKE OF ATTACKING, I WOULDN'T STAND NEXT TO THE PRIME MINISTER AT THE OPENING OF KORNEL MORAWIECKI SQUARE - SUTRYK CONTINUES: “I respond: this is not a ritualistic attack. Because if I were attacking the government for the sake of attacking, I wouldn't be standing next to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on the same day at the ceremony of opening Kornel Morawiecki Square in Wrocław. My voice is not an attack, but solely an appeal for dialogue and respect for the voice of local governments.” -- SUTRYK EVADES KOLANKO'S REPEATED QUESTION ABOUT HIS PARTICIPATION IN TRZASKOWSKI'S MOVEMENT: “In Gdańsk, we joined the 'Local Governments for Poland' initiative. We did this on the 40th anniversary of the August Agreements, in the year of the 30th anniversary of local government. We do not want to affiliate this movement with any political camp. It is to be a space for developing solutions that are good for our residents, regardless of whether we are talking about large cities or rural communes. Regarding the initiative of the Mayor of Warsaw, I am also calm – local government officials know how to talk to each other; they have proven it many times. However, the question I have posed several times in our conversation remains open: will we have partners on the government side?” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/309039895-Jacek-Sutryk-Samorzady-nie-sa-cialem-obcym.html -- THIS COULD BE THE END FOR EMILEWICZ - JAKUB SZCZEPAŃSKI ON INTERIA: “It is known that Jarosław Gowin will return to the government. Both the structures of Porozumienie and the politician himself want this. According to our information, there is no question of the party leader returning to the government as a minister without portfolio. And just a few months ago, the current head of the Development Ministry planned to take Porozumienie away from Gowin, but she failed to obtain the required support on the ground. So what awaits Emilewicz now? - She could, for example, become the head of structures in Wielkopolska. That's a good place for her - sneers one of the Porozumienie politicians.” -- IT WORKED OUT, VICTOR'S ARE NOT JUDGED - A PIS POLITICIAN IN SZCZEPAŃSKI'S ARTICLE ON WHY PIS IS NOT PROSECUTING GOWIN FOR POSTPONING THE ELECTION: “They emphasized their commitment to conservative traditions and values, but also did not mince words, trying to needle Morawiecki. The largest coalition partner perceives this as an attack on the United Right government. - In PiS, Solidarna Polska's behavior is perceived as an internal war. Porozumienie is a bit on the sidelines - explains one politician from the ruling camp to Interia. - Gowin's electoral volte-face (referring to the postponement of the election date due to the coronavirus - editorial note) is something completely different. And besides, it worked out, victors are not judged - he adds.” https://fakty.interia.pl/autor/jakub-szczepanski/news-negocjacje-liderow-zjednoczonej-prawicy-to-moze-byc-koniec-e,nId,4709696 -- RPD KNOWN FOR HIS INCOMPETENCE - JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Pawlak is known not only for his radicalism but also for his incompetence. During the pandemic, he focused on criticizing the teaching community, organizing concerts with celebrities, and fighting abortion. In the meantime, many adoption processes were suspended, the problem of domestic violence gained relevance, and some children practically fell out of the education system. The ombudsman's statements fit into the ideological offensive of Solidarna Polska. The Ziobro camp is heating up public debate, regardless of the consequences, even if it means growing permissiveness towards violence. Two years of Pawlak's term may be a bad prognostication of what PiS might do in the near future with the Office of the Children's Ombudsman.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/09/04/rzecznik-praw-dziecka-mikolaj-pawlak/ -- ON THE MATTER OF PAWLAK, THE OPPOSITION FOLLOWS IN ORDO IURIS' FOOTSTEPS - EWA SIEDLECKA ON OKO.PRESS: “Civic Coalition announces a motion to dismiss the Children's Ombudsman by the Sejm. The Left calls for his resignation. Thus, they are repeating Ordo Iuris' actions towards Ombudsman Adam Bodnar. Dismissing or pressuring for the resignation of a constitutional body, whose guarantee of independence is non-removability, is an unconstitutional act.” -- THE OPPOSITION PERPETUATES BAD STANDARDS - SIEDLECKA CONTINUES: “It doesn't matter whether one dismissal is justified and the other is not – no, because each side is convinced that there are reasons for it. A supervisory body must have a guarantee of independence, otherwise it could not play its role. It is necessary to ensure that appropriate, competent, and responsible people are chosen for these functions. And if they do something wrong – criticize, debate why they are wrong, educate on how it should be. By demanding dismissal or pressuring for resignation, one perpetuates PiS standards, which reduce independence to obedience or at least to getting out of the way to avoid conflict.” https://oko.press/w-sprawie-rpd-opozycja-idzie-w-slady-ordo-iuris/ -- PKO BP LEADS, BIEDRONKA OUTPACED PZU AND PGNiG AS TAXPAYER TO THE BUDGET - BUSINESS INSIDER: “The PKO BP tax capital group generated PLN 1.37 billion in income tax due last year, according to the Ministry of Finance's report published on Wednesday. This accounts for 3.4% of total revenues from this tax last year. Thanks to this, the bank, along with its subsidiaries, maintained its leading position on the list of CIT taxpayers, although it paid PLN 5.6 million less in tax than the previous year. (...) As can be seen, banks, despite paying the so-called banking tax to the budget, also pay the largest CIT. These are the most heavily taxed companies in Poland. The top ten largest taxpayers are supplemented by: KGHM, Jeronimo Martins Polska (Biedronka), PZU tax capital group, PGE, and PGNiG. Out of ten key taxpayers who contributed a total of 17.9% of CIT, seven are state-controlled companies.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/firmy/podatki/najwieksi-platnicy-cit-2019-banki-na-pierwszych-czterech-miejscach/9k6j1hb -- BIRTHDAYS: Lidia Marcinkowska, Waldemar Kraska, Jan Ziobro, Amelia Łukasiak, Alicja Lis, Kazimierz Sas.

Łukasz Mężyk