state of play: 08/26/2020

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Tusk Admits to Political Kitsch, Nizinkiewicz on Ziobro's Defiance, BGK Head on Stimulus Packages

Łukasz Mężyk

-- BELARUS CAN BE EXCLUDED FROM INTERNAL DISPUTES - JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI ON JEDYNKA RZ: “Excluding all foreign policy from internal disputes is not possible. But Belarus – that is. After all, no one in Poland supports a regime that falsifies elections and defends itself against collapse by torturing and imprisoning people. The consequences of today's events in Belarus will extend far beyond one term of the Polish Sejm. The opposition, in speaking with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki about Belarus, is discussing matters they will one day encounter when they are responsible for foreign policy, for Poland.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/308259902-Jerzy-Haszczynski-O-Bialorusi-ponad-podzialami-z-wizja-na-pokolenia.html -- HUMANITARIAN CONVOY OF SOLIDARITY HEADS TO BELARUS - BELSAT: https://belsat.eu/pl/news/konwoj-humanitarny-solidarnosci-ma-wyruszyc-dzis-na-bialorus/ -- HE ACTS IN A POLITICALLY STUPID WAY - LEONARD BONNARDO OF OPEN SOCIETY ON ŁUKASCHENKO IN A CONVERSATION WITH SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “I think that on the one hand, he is truly cunning. On the other hand – he is a kolkhoznik. Both make him somewhat dangerous. Not because he's some brilliant strategist, by no means. But he's clever enough to play Brussels and Moscow, or the West and Moscow, against each other for a long time when it suits him. He's been doing it for over 20 years. When Russia distances itself too much or starts draining Belarus, he releases political prisoners. When the West demands too much, he turns back towards Russia. He's cunning, but not a strategist. I am convinced that in the end, the kolkhoznik will win out in him. He has never had to face anything like this before, and that's why we see how crude and brutal his reaction to the demonstrations is. Torturing people? Has he lost his mind? Is he insane? Clearly, no reasonable person is advising him. He is acting in a politically stupid way. So I have a feeling that in the end, he will be removed in a way that will be humiliating for him and over which he will have no control.” -- ŁUKASCHENKO LIKE MUBARAK IN 2011, WILL BE FORGOTTEN - BONNARDO CONTINUES: “I have a premonition that Lukashenko today is the equivalent of Mubarak in 2011. Mubarak knew his time was up. I think Lukashenko knows it too. And I think he will end up like the former presidents of Kyrgyzstan – one in Minsk, the other in Moscow. He will be completely forgotten. Of course, people who suffered because of him won't forget him, but in terms of Eurasian politics, he will fade into oblivion.” -- A NEW ADMINISTRATION WILL RESTORE THE USA TO THE WORLD - BONNARDO CONTINUES IN A CONVERSATION WITH SIERAKOWSKI: “What if Putin invaded Belarus? Now it's just statements, nothing more. Mike Pompeo would make declarations, but America can't do anything. Trump has put the USA in a position where it has completely fallen out of the game. But in five months, there will be a new administration in Washington that will restore the United States to the world.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/lukaszenka-to-glupio-przegra-rozmowa-sierakowski-bonnardo/ -- IF WE ARE TO SEEK ANALOGIES WITH BELARUS, IT IS RATHER IN THE GROWING DISINTEGRATION OF THE OPPOSITION - KRZYSZTOF KARNKOWSKI IN NIEZALEŻNA: “When the situation in Belarus became tense, first due to suspicions of election fraud, and then the brutal suppression of social protests, our eastern neighbors became a frequent point of reference for our opposition. 'Minsk, Warsaw – a common cause. In recent days, perhaps more than ever. Enough of the authorities' brutality and intrusive propaganda' – Rafał Trzaskowski wrote on Twitter two weeks ago. Such comparisons are compromising for the opposition. However, if we are to look for analogies with Belarus, we will find them rather in the growing disintegration and lack of leaders among the opponents of our government.” https://niezalezna.pl/348072-opozycja-straconych-szans -- SOBOLEWSKI ON THE RECONSTRUCTION, NITRAS ON SCHETYNA, THE PRIME MINISTER WITH THE OPPOSITION ON BELARUS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/08/26/ -- I AM ALMOST CERTAIN THEY WILL LOSE THE ELECTION IN THREE YEARS, BUT WHO THE WAVE WILL CARRY IS UNKNOWN - DONALD TUSK IN A CONVERSATION WITH JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “There is no reason why authenticity, emotion, and simplicity should exclusively characterize politicians of this camp. Good ideas also captivate the masses, and bad governments sooner or later fall. The quality of the opposition largely determines whether sooner or later. The July elections in Poland showed that every scenario is possible; similarly to the United States or Great Britain, the votes are divided more or less fifty-fifty. And this dynamic balance will continue, although typically time works against the authorities. We are not condemned to PiS; I am almost certain that they will lose the election in three years, but who the new wave will carry – that I do not know.” -- I DIDN'T SHY AWAY FROM POLITICAL KITSCH, I SAID WE ARE A PARTY OF RESPONSIBLE POPULISM - TUSK CONTINUES: “Liberal democracy also needs to use this knowledge of human emotions; it must re-learn how to tell its own story. And please, do not confuse storytelling with a program. People are also moved by good stories; one does not need to be a complete cynic or a charismatic autocrat to reach voters with a message that will interest them, move them, or inspire them. When I led Civic Platform, I did not shy away from the techniques of building popularity; I was not afraid of simplifications or even political kitsch. I used to say that we are a party of responsible populism. We seek support, but we do not cross the boundaries set by custom, law, or basic decency. Whoever, being in power, develops a taste for playing the black keys, for manipulation as the main method of managing emotions, will quickly cross all these boundaries.” -- TRYING TO CONVINCE PEOPLE THAT WE WERE BAD BEFORE BUT UNDERWENT A WONDERFUL METAMORPHOSIS IS SUICIDAL - TUSK CONTINUES: “I did not propose raising the retirement age so that I myself would retire at 63. But a clear signal was needed in the campaign that Trzaskowski could free Poland from the sharp, unbearable conflict for which Kaczyński and I are the main protagonists. And that he is not co-responsible for all my decisions from when I was Prime Minister. Overall, a rather rational operation, even if a bit unpleasant. However, it was a mistake for politicians of the entire opposition, not just Civic Platform, to distance themselves from their own past. These rather desperate gestures confused many voters. Either we are proud of our achievements, and we have reason to be, or we get out of people's way. Trying to convince people that we were bad before but underwent a wonderful metamorphosis is suicidal. One of PiS's advantages over the opposition is their solidarity with their own past. The opposition must regain self-confidence and belief in its arguments, stop fearing its own shadows. There is no mercy for those who are afraid.” -- TUSK ON TRANSFERS - LARGE-SCALE CORRUPTION: “Money is for people. But if the government uses public money, distributing it left and right to buy support, without thinking about the future, let's not call it a new economy. This is large-scale corruption, not a new economic philosophy. Someone must break this dangerous spiral and loudly say that elections cannot be solely a primitive auction of 'who will give more,' because it will end in catastrophe. Already too many Poles believe that good governance means 'stealing, but sharing,' and that you have as much money as the government gives, not as much as you earn. This is the moment when the opposition should stand on the side of those who work, because they are the ones being robbed and forced to 'share' according to the ruling party's interests.” -- THEY PROBABLY WON'T WIN A THIRD TIME, WHETHER THEY WIN AFTERWARDS IS UNCERTAIN BUT STILL PROBABLE - TUSK CONTINUES IN A CONVERSATION WITH BACZYŃSKI: “The best person to bring about a change of power is the power itself. Rulers usually lose to themselves; PiS will also meet this fate. They will rather certainly not win for the third time. Will Civic Platform or a coalition with its participation win? That is less certain, but still quite probable. Under certain conditions. Firstly: mistakes must be the domain of the government, not the opposition. Whoever rules makes mistakes, these inevitable ones. The opposition must be flawless. Secondly: militancy must be a characteristic of the opposition. It is Civic Platform that must attack PiS's throat every day. Not be afraid of tough confrontation. Not to make pacts with the government. And thirdly: not to be ashamed of its own emotions, views, and past. Not to disguise itself. In no case should it resemble PiS. Always be an alternative, never a supplement. With a bit of luck, this will be enough to win the election. And if someone doesn't have luck, then nothing will help anyway. So yes, Civic Platform can win again, but it must truly want it very much.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1968760,1,donald-tusk-trzeba-wytrwac-w-oporze-az-do-wyborow.read?src=mt -- JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ POINTS TO THE INTERVIEW WITH THE HEAD OF THE PIS CHAIRMAN'S OFFICE IN DO RZECZY - THE ZIOBROITES TOOK IT BADLY - as he writes in RZ: “Worrying signals are coming from Nowogrodzka to Solidarna Polska. One of them was an interview in 'Do Rzeczy' with Michał Moskal, chairman of Forum Młodych PiS and head of Jarosław Kaczyński's office. The young politician commented on SP's strategy, claiming that 'cultural war makes no sense.' The Ziobroites took the words of Kaczyński's man badly, because without ideological dispute, they will blend with PiS into one political magma.” -- ZIOBRO IS NO LONGER AFRAID OF THE PIS CHAIRMAN - NIZINKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Zbigniew Ziobro will not back down anymore. Now he can only get stronger. Especially since he has access to information from the prosecution that could harm PiS more than the actions of the entire opposition and NIK combined. SP is prepared for a dispute with PiS. Whether it will occur depends on the outcome of the ruling party leaders' talks and the fulfillment of their demands by the PiS chairman. The Ziobroites do not hide that they will not hesitate to walk away from the negotiation table if political bargaining does not go their way. Now Ziobro awaits Kaczyński's move. And as one of the few representatives of the government, he is no longer afraid of the PiS chairman.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/308259907-Jacek-Nizinkiewicz-Krucjata-ziobrystow.html -- ONET WRITES THAT THE DECISION TO LIMIT THE BROADCASTING OF SOLIDARNA POLSKA POLITICIANS BY TVP WAS MADE IN NOWOGRODZKA: “For over a month, no politician from Solidarna Polska has appeared in the main journalistic programs of TVP Info – according to Onet's analysis. Our sources in Zjednoczona Prawica claim that the decision not to invite members of Zbigniew Ziobro's party was made in Nowogrodzka and is related to internal power struggles within the ruling camp. (...) Jarosław Kaczyński reportedly considered it one step too far and stomped his foot. Hence the order for Kurski to cut Solidarna Polska from TVP Info's publicistic programs as punishment.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/ziobrysci-wycieci-z-tvp-info-decyzje-mial-podjac-kaczynski/gz8vxkf,79cfc278 -- THIS IS A PRELUDE TO THE POLEXIT GAME - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “The fight against LGBT is just a prelude. In essence, it is a game whose consequence will be Poland's withdrawal from the European Union. Those who ideologically justify the recent actions of Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro should remember this. (...) Ziobro will therefore evolve towards Konfederacja, meaning Polexit. This obsessive conviction that someone is threatening our independence, and the creation of a bogeyman in the form of the evil European establishment will be cultivated by Ziobro's people.” -- THE DISPUTE WITH BRUSSELS WILL BE INCITED - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “For the Minister of Justice, the dispute with Brussels is important; he wants to incite it at all costs and provoke reactions from EU officials in order to present great indignation at the alleged attack on Poland's sovereignty. Therefore, Ziobro will not allow Morawiecki to soften the dispute with the European Commission.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26239370,polexit-na-horyzoncie-o-co-gra-zbigniew-ziobro.html -- HOW TO DEAL WITH THE ALLIANCE OF LGBT AND BIG BUSINESS WRAPPED IN A RAINBOW FLAG - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Finally, what should be our reaction to various provocations? Ignorance, suppression, or conversely, loud opposition, meaning that the sacred remains sacred? Do we know this yet? Do we know how to deal with the alliance of LGBT and big business, which increasingly readily wraps itself in a rainbow flag? In summary: the time for diagnosis is slowly coming to an end. Now is the time for a concrete program, for ideas, suggestions, for grassroots action. If on one side there will be hundreds, thousands of activists, and on the other only internet clicks, passivity, reluctance to support organizations fighting for the family, then the outcome of this clash is only a matter of time.” https://wpolityce.pl/spoleczenstwo/514762-diagnoze-juz-mamy-w-walce-z-ideologia-lgbt-potrzeba-recept -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ ON THE HYPOCRISY OF POLITICIANS: “There are few more clinical examples of hypocrisy in politics than the issue of politicians' salaries. Both the ruling party and the opposition, through a series of slalom maneuvers and absurd actions surrounding this issue, have not only lost face but also control of the situation. The greatest absurdity of the entire matter is the fact that – although both PiS and Civic Platform have decided that the law on pay raises for the most important people in the state, initially passed by the Sejm, will be thrown out thanks to the Senate's veto – everyone realizes that these individuals are paid too little, and raises, to recall Beata Szydło's words, are simply due to Polish VIPs. Both PiS and opposition politicians admit this, quietly and aloud. Even Szymon Hołownia, who criticized MPs for voting for the raises, announced a citizens' bill regarding the remuneration of individuals holding the highest positions in the state.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/308259906-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Tchorzliwy-jak-polityk.html -- ON THE DECLINE OF THE MFA'S IMPORTANCE - ŁUKASZ WARZECHA IN RZ: “Shouldn't the Ministry of Foreign Affairs therefore return as an entity at least creating concepts of action and assessing their consequences, from which the actual decision-makers will later choose? Well, for now, it is as it is, and any ambitions of Zbigniew Rau will not change anything here. The problem is that a person with ambitions, lacking the opportunity to realize them, may express them in the form of media-effective, not necessarily well-thought-out statements.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/308259908-Lukasz-Warzecha-Szef-MSZ---rezydent-Gmachu.html -- 130 BILLION ZŁ HAS ALREADY BEEN INJECTED INTO THE ECONOMY - BEATA DASZYŃSKA-MUZYCZKA IN A CONVERSATION WITH INTERIA: “As of yesterday, a total of almost 130 billion złoty has been injected into the economy through various forms of support. The most important thing that happened thanks to the entire support package was a perfectly structured system. If we lose our jobs, we most often have to reduce our costs first. This cost reduction is precisely the support with ZUS exemptions, wage subsidies, and the payment of standby allowances, i.e., all forms of support that reduced entrepreneurs' costs. Of course, before the support package, we launched de minimis guarantees, extending them to 80% loan security and waiving commissions, but this is still borrowing. Some entrepreneurs who felt relatively secure did use increased loans. But then money was needed to survive, i.e., the PFR Financial Shield.” -- THIS IS A TIME FOR PUBLIC INVESTMENTS - BGK HEAD CONTINUES: “This is a time for public investments. They should be the engine for stimulating and building the economy for the future. This money, which is invested by the state today and allows many companies to survive, allows for a faster exit from this crisis. A shallower GDP decline means a faster recovery. It may be a bit prolonged. When we talk about a V-shaped or U-shaped recovery, I believe it will be U-shaped, but the width of this U depends on how quickly we move into public investments or investments in a PPP formula.” -- DASZYŃSKA-MUZYCZKA ON BGK'S POSSIBLE INVOLVEMENT IN BELARUS: “We are currently analyzing what impact this may have on our involvement and support for entrepreneurs in Belarus, but it is a very important direction for Polish entrepreneurs, which is why we are closely monitoring how this situation develops, because we were all aware that something would happen after the elections. Today, we are observing which direction these events will take, whether the risk will increase, or at some point decrease, how politics in Belarus will unfold. It is such an important business partner, an important market for Polish entrepreneurs, that we want to be present there.” https://biznes.interia.pl/gospodarka/news-prezes-bgk-dla-interii-czasami-trzeba-uciec-do-przodu,nId,4690750 -- ON PRESSURE ON THE THREE SEAS FUND AND REGIONAL INVESTMENTS - AT THE BGK PANEL AT THE VISION FOR DEVELOPMENT FORUM AND IN THE PIE REPORT: https://300polityka.pl/biznes/2020/08/26/w-kierunku-blizszych-powiazan-prezes-bgk-o-inwestycjach-trojmorza-przed-pazdziernikowym-szczytem-w-tallinie/ -- A NEW CONCERN WILL ENSURE MULTI-ENERGY SECURITY - DANIEL OBAJTEK AT THE VISION FOR DEVELOPMENT FORUM IN GDYNIA: https://300polityka.pl/biznes/2020/08/25/obajtek-multienergetyczne-bezpieczenstwo-panstwa-musi-uwzgledniac-zarowno-zrodla-niskoemisyjne-zeroemisyjne-jak-i-rafinerie-czy-petrochemie/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Maciejowski, Paweł Potoroczyn, Jerzy Haszczyński, Adam Pęzioł, Łukasz Lipiński.

Łukasz Mężyk