state of play: 08/25/2020
STATE OF PLAY: Dąbrowska: PM tries to steer United Right's chaotic course towards Confederation's right flank; Trudnowski: Not an acclamation of national accord, but a shift to other topics; Tusk: Poland is falling out of the new community
-- LUKASHENKO'S THREAT COULD BE QUITE EFFECTIVE - JAGIENKA WILCZAK IN POLITYKA: “Lukashenko threatens to close factories, and people will lose their jobs. Given that over 75% of enterprises are state-owned, this could be a quite effective threat. The profitability of many of them is questionable, and they operate solely because the deficit is covered by the budget. But that may cease – and that is precisely what the president suggested. People might simply get scared.”
-- WILL THE TEMPERATURE OF PROTESTS BE MAINTAINED AND ARE THE MOVEMENTS NOT TOO CONFLICTED - CONTINUES WILCZAK: “There is also the question of whether the high temperature of protests can be maintained, as there is still a lack of leader or leaders who would take responsibility for the further program. Can a 600-person consultative council or even its 70-person presidium fulfill this role? I fear not. Remembering, in particular, that all social and political movements in Belarus have tended to fall into a state of conflict sooner rather than later, and communication on a common platform has been exceptionally clumsy. Is it not because Lukashenko has been ruling for 26 years that a force capable of opposing his rule has not been able to gather? Well, unless the awakening, which the council members speak of, also concerns this aspect of Belarusian life.”
-- IT CAN BE OBSERVED THAT BELARUS HAS SOMEWHAT SLEPT THROUGH THE WEATHER WINDOW - WILCZAK'S CONCLUSION: “For now, however, one can get the impression that Belarus has somewhat slept through the 'weather window,' and now everything is more difficult because Europe and the world have a crisis on their shoulders, rising unemployment, a pandemic, illegal immigration, and many other troubles to contend with. Regarding Belarus, there might be curiosity, but few truly effective actions.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1968736,1,lukaszenka-latwo-wladzy-nie-odda-to-jeszcze-nie-koniec.read?src=mt
-- 16TH DAY OF PROTESTS IN BELARUS IN A NUTSHELL: https://belsat.eu/pl/news/16-dni-protestow-na-bialorusi-podsumowanie-poniedzialku/
-- WE ARE ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE, AND YET BELARUS IS ONE OF THE EU'S PRIORITIES - DONALD TUSK IN CONVERSATION WITH JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN POLITYKA: “I believe that the pressure from the Union, the ability to mobilize, the preliminary political acts in the European Parliament and the Commission are very insufficient if one has a romantic vision of politics, and very encouraging if one considers the problems the Union has today. Italy, Spain, the pandemic, the crisis, a GDP drop of 18%. We are on the brink of collapse, and yet EU leaders are able to acknowledge that the situation in Belarus is one of the priorities. Far too little to jump for joy, and far more than would result from a cold calculation by cynical politicians.”
-- POLAND PERCEIVED AS A PROBLEM - TUSK CONTINUES: “I am concerned that Poland, after many years of evident European success, is once again perceived as a certain problem, a burden, as someone who breaks or at least significantly violates European identity. This is a cause for uncertainty as to whether this geographical East is not too great a gamble for Europe understood as a continent of freedom. The second issue is, of course, the situation in countries like Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, etc. There, politics has returned almost in Russian boots. They are also aware that you cannot fool geography and history. I have visited these countries many times, including Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, countries of the former Soviet Union. Most political elites think reasonably. They very much want to be like Europe, they are fully aware of where they are, and that they must play a sophisticated game with Russia. Perhaps there is no other way for Belarus either: it will not be an EU member, but it would be good if it did not become part of Russia.”
-- AT ITS OWN REQUEST, POLAND IS FALLING OUT OF THE COMMUNITY - TUSK CONTINUES: “And I believe that we are witnessing the birth of a new EU, with which the treaties and official procedures have nothing in common. Poland is likely falling out of this community. Europe discusses itself, its future, in its own smaller circle and no longer even wants to impose it on others who have found themselves on the margins by their own choice. If there is no rapid and radical breakthrough, this will be an unstoppable process, in my opinion.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1968624,1,tusk-o-bialorusi-polsce-w-unii-i-europie-po-pandemii.read?src=mt
-- A CHANCE TO MOVE POLITICAL ACTION TO A NEW ARENA - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI IN THE JAGIELLONIAN CLUB: ”The presidential elections were still de facto held under the rules of the pre-pandemic world. The campaign topics came from the old reality. Three and a half years until the next electoral plebiscite is an opportunity to move political action to a new arena – shaping the world after an event that will most likely leave its mark for decades to come. If we continue to be stuck in old disputes and anachronistic ways of thinking – we can be sure that we will not only miss the reform opportunity that crisis always brings, but we will also feel its longer-term impact more painfully than those who quickly draw conclusions from the ongoing global pandemic.”
-- TRUDNOWSKI ON THE EXODUS FROM HEALTHCARE: “The priority today should therefore be, on the one hand, to flatten salaries in healthcare (increase the remuneration of young doctors and other medical professionals), and on the other hand, to effectively stem the emigration of graduates from free medical courses, financed, after all, from public funds.”
-- SCHOOLS AS CHILDCARE CENTERS, EDUCATION IN THE 19TH-CENTURY STYLE - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Finally, the educational lockdown has shown us that the main function of a school today is not education and upbringing, but… acting as a childcare center for children whom parents do not have time to look after. Although the mantra 'education is most important' is constantly heard from politicians, experts, and social activists, we lack the courage to admit that 19th-century schooling has lost its purpose. Meanwhile, as Rafał Matyja pointed out more than two years ago in his book 'Emergency Exit,' 'the labor market does not need people who study for twelve, or even seventeen or twenty years.' While this is not solely a Polish problem, an attempt to confront it could be one of the most important lessons from the coronavirus shock.”
-- NOT A FICTITIOUS ACCLAMATION OF NATIONAL ACCORD, BUT A SHIFT OF DEBATE TO OTHER FIELDS - TRUDNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: ”My environment has been calling for years to lower the temperature of inter-tribal conflicts and political polarization. The path to this leads not through a fictitious acclamation of national accord, but precisely through shifting the debate to those areas where we can jointly seek solutions serving the prosperity of future generations. Each of us knows perfectly well from our own lives how easy it is to argue about gays, abortion, the Church. We will not agree on these issues because we fundamentally differ. However, it is difficult to hate someone for wanting fairer taxes, a Europe strategically independent of Asian technologies, a rejuvenation of the healthcare workforce structure, or a school adequate to the challenges of the 21st century.”
https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/08/24/dla-rzadu-po-rekonstrukcji-kontrola-zadluzenia-bedzie-priorytetem/
-- THE PRIME MINISTER IS TRYING TO STEER THE UNITED RIGHT'S CHAOTIC COURSE, WHICH IS DRIFTING TOWARDS CONFEDERATION'S RIGHT FLANK - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “We must act together here – said the head of government in Gdynia. In this way, the prime minister is starting the new political season and is trying to steer the chaotic course of the United Right's boat, which seems to be inexorably drifting towards the right flank occupied by Confederation.”
-- THEY HAVE NOTHING TO COUNT ON FROM THE RIGHT'S MISTAKES, UNLESS ZIOBRO TAKES OVER INITIATIVE FOR GOOD - DĄBROWSKA CONTINUES: “Three years without elections is a new and demanding situation for the opposition. Without access to state media and without an idea for a strong presence in citizens' awareness, both Civic Coalition and the rest of the parties can only prepare for a long-term Hungarian scenario. It also appears that they have nothing to count on in terms of PiS making a mistake that would cost them the support of a significant part of their electorate. Unless Zbigniew Ziobro takes over the initiative in the United Right camp for good.”
https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/308249927-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-Slodycz--w-glosie-premiera.html
-- THE STAGE OF FIGHTING FROM BEHIND THE SCENES IS OVER, NOW THE DISPUTE IS OPEN - BARTEK GODUSŁAWSKI IN DGP ON THE CONFLICT IN THE RULING CAMP: “However, everyone sees that Zbigniew Ziobro and his Solidary Poland are entering the new political season with a new strategy. They are building a front against LGBT and trying to position themselves as defenders of traditional values (whatever they understand by that), they have taken the initiative to denounce the Istanbul Convention, also known as the anti-violence convention (which was clearly not agreed upon within the government), or they directly accuse Morawiecki of excessive submissiveness in the European Union. Janusz Kowalski's charge, combined with the recent initiatives of the Ziobro camp, shows that the Minister of Justice does not intend to easily give up ground to Morawiecki. Although the latter has been strengthened in recent months by Kaczyński. Perhaps in PiS, the issue of who will be the president's successor has already been decided, but for Zbigniew Ziobro, this does not mean it is not worth fighting for leadership on the right side of the political scene. Much indicates that the stage of fighting from behind the scenes is over, and emphasizing differences, pointing out mistakes, and criticism will be open. This means that the hunt for opponents will also begin shortly.”
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/7805779,morawiecki-ziobro-konflikt-nowa-faza-polowanie-nagonka-lgbt.html
-- MAY THE MEETING ON BELARUS BE A GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR NORMALITY? - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “By demonstrating openness to the opposition two weeks after elections that led to the greatest political upheaval in our eastern neighbor since the fall of the USSR, Mateusz Morawiecki is rather a testament to the helplessness of the Polish state, and certainly its slowness. The parliamentary club leaders who were invited by the prime minister now face a dual problem. First and foremost, the credibility of the ruling camp, which at one time argues that the opposition is a great threat to Poland and serves foreign interests, and at another time invites it to talks on key issues. In such a situation, it is difficult to trust the rulers and come to a meeting as if nothing had happened, without suspecting a political trap. But the opposition also has a credibility problem after the leaders of Civic Coalition have repeatedly cornered themselves this summer. But perhaps a joint meeting on Belarus is a glimmer of hope for normality in our politics? It will certainly be a test of credibility for our entire political class.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/308249929-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Test-wiarygodnosci-polskiej-polityki.html
-- IN FOREIGN POLICY, PIS UNDERSTOOD TWO WORDS: "DONALD TRUMP" - SZYMON HOŁOWNIA IN CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “A scholarship fund should be established as soon as possible and free media in Belarus should be co-financed. We cannot do more in the current diplomatic game because, thanks to the efforts of President Andrzej Duda and the PiS government, we simply do not exist. In foreign policy, PiS understood only two words: 'Donald Trump' – that is the entire foreign policy. It may last until November, because if Joe Biden wins, it will be completely different two words, and we will lose everything.”
-- WE MUST ORGANIZE OURSELVES IN THE FACE OF THE PANDEMIC BECAUSE THE RULERS WILL AGAIN ANNOUNCE NEW GUIDELINES TAKEN FROM WHO KNOWS WHERE AT PRESS CONFERENCES EVERY WEEK - HOŁOWNIA CONTINUES: “The deputy minister is now announcing that they will support family doctors, to whom the first wave will naturally go, but I remember how efficiently they organized masks and respirators, and I know that we, the citizens, must defend ourselves today. With masks, flu vaccinations, hygiene, social distancing, because this government does not deserve trust in this regard. Perhaps they will manage to do something, but they certainly cannot say that they are in control of what awaits us in the coming months. All of this will fall on us, on local governments, on citizens, and it will be us again who will have to deal with it, and they will deliver some new guidelines, taken from who knows where, at a press conference once a week.”
-- PIS IS THE OPPONENT, AND PO MAY BE AN ALLY - HOŁOWNIA CONTINUES IN RZ: “PO is certainly not an enemy. Seeing what PiS is doing to Poland and how disastrous these governments are, we should strive to remove PiS from power. PiS is my political opponent, and PO can be an ally. I announced to Rafał Trzaskowski, and I have said it publicly many times, that we are not joining Civic Coalition, we are not joining Platform, but if there are any matters that can be done together, we are ready to cooperate.”
https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/308249934-Holownia-Polska-nie-ma-ministra-zdrowia.html
-- HOW TO PRESENT ONESELF AS A NEW QUALITY - RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK ON THE PLATFORM IN CONVERSATION WITH WPOLITYCE.PL: “To the Platform's traditional dilemma, namely how to retain the liberal electorate and a radically anti-PiS narrative, while at the same time being open to new voters, a new element has been added. It consists in the need to find a way to present itself as a new quality, a 'New Solidarity,' while maintaining party structures with their resources, reach, and people.”
-- THEY SHOULD COUNT ON EARLY ELECTIONS NOT HAPPENING - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “Borys Budka and the Platform leadership should count on early elections not happening, and time will allow public opinion to forget about a significant part of the criticism that fell on the party during its governance, and Borys Budka himself will emerge unscathed after the problems of August 2020, thanks to more significant topics emerging.”
-- HE RECEIVED A CHANCE FROM FATE THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN MORE THAN ONCE - CHWEDORUK ON TRZASKOWSKI: “In the presidential elections, it was possible to limit various negative stereotypes about Rafał Trzaskowski as a PO politician. But the situation was non-standard. Now it will be different, which is why no final judgment can be made. He received a chance from the voters and from fate that does not happen more than once. To seize it, he must do hard work and show determination, as well as count on the mistakes and weakness of internal competition among the opposition. This will be the first and main challenge for Rafał Trzaskowski.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/514683-nasz-wywiad-chwedoruk-napiecia-strukturalne-w-platformie
-- SCHOOLS WITH A "WE'LL MUDDLE THROUGH" STRATEGY - MACIEJ MÜLLER IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Polish educational authorities do not want to emulate countries where the return to school is accompanied by strict and precise guidelines. Instead, the doctrine of 'we'll muddle through' prevails. (...) Polish conditions almost force pro-epidemic behavior. Many teachers, after the liquidation of junior high schools, have to piece together full-time positions in several institutions. Reducing class density, especially in high schools, is out of the question – there is a lack of both space and staff. The sanitary inspectorate quarantines all 'close contacts.' It is easy to imagine a situation where one infected person paralyzes the work of even several schools. So far – for example, compared to Western countries – the pandemic has treated us relatively mildly, and for reasons that are not entirely clear (the role of the BCG vaccine administered in Poland is mentioned, but there is no strong scientific evidence for this). The Polish government seems to cling to the hope that it will continue to 'muddle through.' Let's hope this hope doesn't shatter in the first weeks of the new school year.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/szkola-epidemii-164576
-- THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SCHOOL YEAR SHOULD BE DECENTRALIZED - SŁAWOMIR BRONIARZ - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/08/25/
-- WE ARE ONLY NOW MAKING UP FOR THE LOST 30 YEARS BEFORE 1989, THIS WILL CERTAINLY NOT SATISFY LGBT ACTIVISTS - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Against the backdrop of human rights issues, it should finally be clearly stated that after 30 years of the Third Polish Republic, we are only now making up for the 'lost 30 years' – note – those from before 1989. This will certainly not satisfy LGBT+ activists. However, while racial minorities and sexual minorities have been fighting for their rights since the 1960s, here – appealing to human rights – the main focus was on regaining independence. Of course, Poles referred to human rights in the 1970s, like other societies in the West. However, the same concept was filled with different content. Suffice it to mention that in the 1980s, the collapse of 'Solidarity' was extensively compared to the November Uprising of 1830–1831 or the January Uprising of 1863–1864. And this seemed fully justified and understandable!”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/08/25/toksyczny-ideal-solidarnosc-po-40-latach/
-- WITHOUT FILLING THE GAPS IN ACCESS, THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION WILL EXCLUDE MILLIONS AND LEAD TO AN EXPLOSION OF INEQUALITY - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Half of households in rural Poland do not have access to broadband internet. 18% of Poland's population has never used the internet. Without filling these white spots on Poland's digital map, the country's digitization will exclude millions of people and lead to an explosion of inequality.”
-- POLAND AND THE EU ARE TWO DIFFERENT WORLDS REGARDING INTERNET ACCESS - WÓJCIK CONTINUES: “According to the Digital Economy and Society Index 2019 (DESI) report, 79% of households in Poland have access to broadband internet, which is exactly the worst result in the entire Community. In second-to-last Lithuania, 85% of homes have broadband internet, and in ten EU countries, almost all households are connected to it. It looks even worse in rural areas. Only half of families living in rural Poland have access to fast internet. In second-to-last Lithuania – two-thirds. In terms of fast internet availability, Poland and the rest of the EU are two different worlds.”
-- AGAIN HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS EXCLUDED - WÓJCIK'S CONCLUSION: “On the Vistula, internet access and digital skills are largely dependent on place of residence, age, and social class. Broad digitization of the public domain must be preceded by filling the white spots on Poland's digital map. Otherwise, another wave of modernization passing through our country will again leave hundreds of thousands of excluded people unable to cope in the new reality. Just as it was in the early 1990s and – to a lesser extent – in the first decade of the 21st century.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/cyfrowe-nierownosci-w-polsce-wojcik/
-- DEMOCRATS ARE RETURNING TO RELIGIOUS LANGUAGE - TOMASZ TERLIKOWSKI IN NOWA KONFEDERACJA: “Joe Biden and the Democrats are returning to religious language. This may help Biden, but it can also harm him, as he is entering ground previously reserved for the 'Party of God,' as the Republican Party has been called for years.”
https://nowakonfederacja.pl/joe-biden-poslany-przez-opatrznosc/
-- NEW MULTI-ENERGY CONGLOMERATE WILL BE ABLE TO INVEST UP TO 380 BILLION EUROS IN NEW TECHNOLOGIES - KLARECKA:
https://300polityka.pl/biznes/2020/08/24/klarecka-nowy-koncern-multienergetyczny-bedzie-w-stanie-inwestowac-w-nowe-technologie-transformacji-energetycznej-i-to-bedzie-wymagalo-nawet-380-miliardow-euro/
-- CHLUDZIŃSKI: THE ŁÓDŹ AGGLOMERATION HAS ALREADY SURPASSED SICILY, OUR COPPER OR SILVER IS IN EVERY SIXTH SMARTPHONE IN THE WORLD: https://300polityka.pl/biznes/2020/08/24/chludzinski-ostatnich-kilka-lat-pokazuje-jak-dluga-droge-odbylismy-np-aglomeracja-lodzka-postrzegana-jako-niebedaca-w-awangardzie-rozwoju-dzis-ma-lepsze-wskazniki-niz-sycylia-statystycznie-w-co/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Cezary Tomczyk, Andrzej Potocki, Zdobysław Milewski, Marcin Gugulski, Piotr Kotomski, Krzysztof Śmiszek.
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