-- PROTESTS AND ARRESTS IN BELARUS SINCE MORNING - LIVE REPORT BY BELSAT: https://belsat.eu/pl/news/minsk-od-rana-protesty-sa-pierwsze-zatrzymania/ -- THE OPPOSITION HAS GONE ON THE OFFENSIVE, LUKASHENKO IS COMPLETELY LOST - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI FROM MINSK for Krytyka: “Lukashenko doesn't know who to arrest. The workers have proven his helplessness. The women have proven the OMON's helplessness. And all of them together have shown the system's helplessness. Russia, for now, beyond easily readable declarations, is not eager to intervene. The encouraging examples of Armenia, Moldova, or Georgia show that it's possible to have friendly post-dictatorships maintained in one's sphere of influence through cost-free methods. Lukashenko guarantees trouble. The louder he demands Putin's help, the louder Putin laughs, but for now, he's only sending trolls to Belarus, not tanks. Lukashenko, from the phase of a desperate dictator on Sunday, transitioned to the phase of a pathetic, pitiable dictator on Monday.” -- AND ALL THIS IS HAPPENING WITHOUT A LEADER - SIERAKOWSKI CONTINUES: “Let's note that all this is happening without a leader to direct the protests. Indeed, there are influential activists, led by the resurgent Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya herself, there's the Telegrammer NEXTA, living in Warsaw and calling for firm protests, there's Maria Kalesnikava hiding in Minsk. But the workers' strikes, the stance of doctors, and the key women's protest are independent, spontaneous initiatives. This also creates an unfavorable impression for the ruler.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/sierakowski-z-minska-lukaszenka-nie-tylko-stracil-poparcie-ale-takze-kontakt-z-rzeczywistoscia/ -- EMILEWICZ ON THE OCTOBER RECONSTRUCTION, JABŁOŃSKI ON AN ALTERNATIVE FOR BELARUS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/08/19/ -- EU SUCCESSES STRENGTHEN MORAWIECKI - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “In recent weeks, the Prime Minister has had success at the EU budget summit (which the PiS leader himself emphasized) and has had a significant impact on the presidential election outcome (which the PiS leader also noted). Now, it's not just about showing citizens effectiveness on the EU stage or that the government cares about Poland's security. The internal power balance within the United Right is also important. Zbigniew Ziobro has been extremely active since the presidential elections. And he has already spoken on the issue of Belarus. The stakes are high. Another success for the Prime Minister will be internally compared to blocking Frans Timmermans' candidacy or the EU budget negotiations. All of this strengthens Morawiecki in the power struggle over the shape of the government and the future of the right.” https://www.rp.pl/Dyplomacja/308189920-Kryzys-na-Bialorusi-Nowe-wyzwanie-dla-Morawieckiego.html -- PIS WOULD HAVE 237 SEATS TODAY - BEN STANLEY ANALYZES POLL SUMS - in Polityka: “Assuming that party support at the district level is similar to that observed in the last parliamentary elections, PiS would still be able to form a government from its own list. Today, it would win 237 seats.” -- LEWICA WOULD LOSE HALF ITS SEATS - STANLEY CONTINUES: “Although KO would have slightly more seats than in 2019, it would still be far behind PiS. Lewica would lose about a third of its seats (winning 33), PSL-Kukiz '15 about half (15), and Konfederacja would gain 20. It should be noted that estimates vary depending on the latest polls, with 44% support not always guaranteeing PiS a majority.” -- HOŁOWNIA GAINS AT THE EXPENSE OF PO AND LEWICA - STANLEY CONTINUES: “So far, nine polls have been conducted that include Poland 2050. Although the declared support for this movement has slightly decreased since the first one was conducted in mid-June, it would still be the third force – with a result of 13%. Comparing the poll results with those that did not include this formation, Polska 2050 would gain mainly at the expense of KO (– 5 percentage points) and Lewica (–3 percentage points). For PiS (–2 percentage points), the losses would not be proportionally as large.” -- HOŁOWNIA WOULD HAVE 52 SEATS AT THE EXPENSE OF PLATFORM AND SMALLER PARTIES, BUT NOT PIS - CONTINUES BEN STANLEY'S ANALYSIS: “It should be noted that as a result of the appearance of a new competitor, PiS would not necessarily lose its majority. Poland's electoral system disproportionately rewards larger parties: smaller ones are more prone to losing seats. KO would lose about 12 MPs to Polska 2050, but the majority of the 52 seats that Hołownia's movement could gain would be taken from Lewica, Konfederacja, and PSL-Kukiz '15.” -- KO AND THE SMALLER OPPOSITION HAVE REASON TO WORRY - STANLEY'S CONCLUSION: “There is a tendency in polls that including a hypothetical candidate leads to an exaggeration of their actual attractiveness and an overestimation of the result. However, the good impression Hołownia made during the campaign, and the fact that he is a public figure, lend his movement's results a bit more credibility. Therefore, KO, as well as all other opposition parties, have reason to worry.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1968042,1,dobre-sondaze-ko-ruch-holowni-moze-jej-zaszkodzic.read -- AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW ON POTENTIAL SUCCESSORS TO BUDKA AS HEAD OF THE KO CLUB: “Civic Platform is looking for a successor to Borys Budka as head of the club. Changes in the club's leadership will occur in early September – these decisions were made at Tuesday's PO board meeting. (...) Unofficially, it is heard that Tomasz Siemoniak could be the new head. - Some mention the name of Jan Grabiec, Urszula Augustyn, but no decisions have been made, all of this is speculation today, we don't want to make decisions under emotional influence – says one of the PO MPs.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26220926,we-wrzesniu-klub-koalicji-obywatelskiej-zmieni-wladze-kulisy.html -- SOME SENATORS THREATENED REVOLT, HENCE BUDKA'S VOLTE-FACE - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN ONE T: “In addition, some senators threatened revolt, announcing a vote in the Senate against the bill, and even leaving Civic Coalition. Therefore, on Monday, PO leader Borys Budka made a volte-face and declared himself in favor of rejecting the bill. As a result, the Senate, controlled by the opposition, voted against it.” -- STANKIEWICZ DESCRIBES NEGOTIATIONS NO ONE WANTS TO ADMIT TO: “The main driver for introducing the raises was MP Ryszard Terlecki. According to our information, the head of the PiS club negotiated this matter with prominent opposition representatives. On behalf of KO, Borys Budka participated in the confidential negotiations, from Lewica – Włodzimierz Czarzasty, and from PSL – Deputy Marshal of the Sejm Piotr Zgorzelski. It was in this group that the decision to support the raises was made, which no one wants to admit to today. - In every club, there are complaints that MPs' and senators' salaries are too low. But in PiS, the pressure is the highest because parliamentarians see how much their colleagues or friends earn in state-owned companies – says our interlocutor from the opposition, who knows the background of these talks.” -- SCHREIBER REVEALED TO STANKIEWICZ THAT THE OPPOSITION WANTED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL THIRTEENTH SALARIES: “Party leaders knew perfectly well that the deal with Terlecki was an agreement with Jarosław Kaczyński and the government. According to our information, the draft bill on raises was written in the Prime Minister's Chancellery under the supervision of Minister Łukasz Schreiber. When we asked him about it, he did not answer directly. Instead, he accused the opposition of wanting to include even larger increases and, among other things, thirteenth salaries for MPs in the draft.” -- THE WHOLE SITUATION WEAKENED BUDKA - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “The whole situation has clearly weakened Borys Budka. Therefore – as our interlocutors in KO claim – he will have to share power soon. It is likely that Budka will resign from his position as club leader and focus on leading Platform.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/podwyzki-dla-poslow-i-senatorow-ujawniamy-kulisy-negocjacji/xmq0fr1,79cfc278 -- A PRETEXT FOR A PURGE WITHIN PLATFORM - KRZYSZTOF WOŁODŹKO IN NIEZALEŻNA: “It is possible that the leader of PO will soon become a scapegoat for a political purge within his own ranks. The Platform members need something like a symbolic self-purification. Finding someone who can be placed in a mortifying situation before the voters and pointed at: ‘He is to blame that we failed again. And if we get rid of him, we will waste Trzaskowski's effect.’ However, as I mentioned, this is wishful thinking. Because the electorate of Platform/Civic Coalition is not the electorate of Trzaskowski from the second round. And there is no indication that – even at the cost of a deep transformation of Platform, including a change of name – this electorate can be retained.” https://niezalezna.pl/347009-pretekst-dodintojry-wplatformie -- REMUNERATION DISPROPORTIONATE TO RESPONSIBILITY WILL REMAIN AN UNRESOLVED PROBLEM FOR YEARS - TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: “The uproar over politicians' salaries has caused the long-standing problem of earnings disproportionate to the scale of responsibility and not reflecting the prestige of the office to remain unresolved for years to come. And this is the biggest problem of the current situation, not the amounts of salaries proposed in the bill.” -- THEY WILL LEAVE FOR BUSINESS, AND MPS WILL LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INCOME - ŻÓŁCIAK CONTINUES: “So we have a classic stalemate, and it looks like MPs will continue to look for additional sources of income, people without a better idea for life will increasingly end up in local government instead of professionals, and deputy ministers, after years of gaining experience in administration, will leave for business with all their operational knowledge, influence, and contacts.” -- THE EXODUS WILL BEGIN IN THE FALL, WE WILL MISS THE IDEA OF RAISES - ŻÓŁCIAK'S CONCLUSION: “In the latter case, I will be very surprised if the departing Deputy Minister of Health, Janusz Cieszyński, who is highly recognizable due to the pandemic, is not soon recruited by the pharmaceutical industry. However, the real exodus will begin in the fall, right after the reconstruction and the planned cuts in administration. The effects of these changes are difficult to predict, but something tells me that we will still miss the idea of raises.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/7801688,podwyzki-pis-wynagrodzenia-zarobki-posel-polityka-exodus.html -- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON RESIGNATIONS IN THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH IN THE CONTEXT OF THE FIGHT WITHIN THE RIGHT - writes in RZ: “From media reports (including 'Gazeta Wyborcza' and TVN 24), it appears that the Intelligence Agency was involved in the respirator case, or perhaps even authored the entire idea. 'The boys from the services' wanted to be as brave as the Israeli Mossad and secretly buy respirators through an intermediary arms dealer. But probably – as in action movies – something went wrong. The dealer took the money paid by the Ministry of Health, deducted his previously promised commission, and left to continue doing business for which he is on the UN blacklist. Do Cieszyński and Szumowski know enough about this matter that they had to leave so quickly, even before the reconstruction planned for September? There is also another hypothesis. The power struggle within the United Right is entering a new stage, where no prisoners are taken anymore. The ministers are individuals associated with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (especially Janusz Cieszyński). And it is Zbigniew Ziobro who holds the prosecution in his hands.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/308189929-Dabrowska-Kto-zwolnil-Szumowskiego.html -- MAŁGORZATA SOLECKA LINKS THE RESIGNATIONS TO THE AMENDMENT TO THE COVID ACT WHICH EXEMPTED FROM LIABILITY - THERE WERE NO SIGNATURES FROM SOLIDARNA POLSKA MPS UNDER THE PROJECT - WRITES IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “It seems more than likely that the catalyst for the decision to leave (which was indeed speculated about in winter, as Szumowski said on Tuesday) are the events that took place in the Sejm during the last, one-day session. Let's reconstruct: on Thursday afternoon, a group of PiS MPs (led by Deputy Marshal Ryszard Terlecki) submitted a draft amendment to the special COVID act, according to which officials making decisions related to combating the pandemic would be exempt from criminal liability if these decisions involved committing a crime by them. The law was to have retroactive effect. It is truly difficult not to link this parliamentary legislative initiative with the statements of prosecutors from the mask-respirator investigation, who just a few days earlier emphasized the importance of the matter in the media. Is the prosecution, supervised by Zbigniew Ziobro, throwing a lifeline to the leadership of the Ministry of Health? Not all of them! There are no signatures from Solidarna Polska MPs under the draft. Moreover, they claim that they learned about the draft from the media and do not intend to support it.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/szumowski-odchodzi-164568 -- DID SOMEONE START TALKING? - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “Szumowski and Cieszyński testified in the investigation as witnesses. The proceedings themselves are also still ongoing as an inquiry, not against specific individuals. The investigation concerns 'gross mismanagement.' According to one source, the situation around Szumowski and Cieszyński has intensified due to new testimony obtained by the prosecution. One witness allegedly implicated both ministers. This is likely a person from within the ministry who was pressured to sign risky orders and disburse funds.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26220807,lukasz-szumowski-odchodzi-z-ministerstwa-zdrowia.html -- DESERTER OR VICTIM? - PAWEŁ WALEWSKI IN POLITYKA: “It hasn't happened in a long time that politicians responsible for such a socially sensitive ministry resigned almost simultaneously. It looks like a joint escape from under fire.” -- WILL THE MEDIA'S ACCUSATIONS BE CONFIRMED? - WALEWSKI CONTINUES: “If yesterday the Deputy Minister of Health resigned, and today the Minister himself is stepping down – both criticized, among others, for deals during the Covid-19 crisis with an arms dealer and a ski instructor – then Law and Justice is aiming to improve the image of the increasingly poorly perceived leadership of the ministry, or the investigation conducted by the prosecution is heading towards confirming the earlier media accusations against both officials.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1968100,1,dymisja-ministra-szumowskiego-dezerter-czy-ofiara.read?src=mt -- HE COLORED THE DISTRICTS AND RESIGNED, AND WHAT ABOUT THE FALL? - ŁUKASZ WARZECHA IN RZ: "This means that virtually everyone who reports to them with a cough and fever in the fall should end up in quarantine. Currently, about 100,000 Poles are in this quasi-detention. How many will there be in the fall? Over 3 million? And there are cases where quarantine, ultimately ending with a negative result, lasts for nine weeks because that's how the excellent Polish diagnostic system works. I have no idea if the government has any plan to prevent the impending disaster. If it does, it hasn't shared it. However, there is no indication of that, because Minister Szumowski first focused on his new toy, i.e., coloring the districts, and then resigned. Perhaps he took to heart the otherwise healthy metaphor of a classic of Polish political thought who once advised: 'Break the thermometer, and you won't have a fever.' Life experience, however, shows that no one has ever managed to solve a problem by pretending it doesn't exist. https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/308189937-Warzecha-Minister-zdrowia-stlukl-termometr.html -- WE CAN DEMAND FROM THE FIRST LADY, BUT AFTER INTRODUCING A SALARY FOR HER - ADRIANA ROZWADOWSKA IN GW: “Payment is due for work. Period. Therefore, a salary for the First Lady should be one of the elements of a bill submitted by one of the opposition parties. Because the issue of salaries for state officials needs to be resolved systemically – from the bottom, the lowest-ranking officials with microscopic tenure, through experienced officials living on 2,000 PLN net, up to the President and the First Lady. Only then can we begin to present the latter with a list of our complaints and grievances and start demanding. Regardless of whether she is called Kornhauser-Duda or Trzaskowska.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,26217670,tak-agata-duda-powinna-zarabiac-kobieta-nie-jest-wlasnoscia.html -- HOW THE HOMOSEXUAL UNION DAMAGES VALUES - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “How does this desire for closeness with another person threaten other members of society? Does it violate their rights, freedom, endanger their existence, harm them? Of course not. We consider aggression, destroying people, exclusion, lying, stealing, humiliating, beating, killing to be contrary to ethical principles. We value loyalty, care for others, a stable, loving family, responsibility for raising children, empathy, altruism, integrity, diligence. How does the formal union of homosexual people harm these values? This way of thinking does not withstand elementary criticism.” -- WE CAN FIND A CONSENSUS THAT WILL PROTECT US FROM RELIGIOUS WAR - WIELOWIEYSKA'S CONCLUSION: “The most important thing is to move beyond the frameworks imposed by dogmatic thinking and understand what values are most important to us as believers and non-believers. Because then we can find a social consensus on LGBT rights that will protect us from the harmful religious war imposed on us by some hierarchs and right-wing politicians.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26220734,lgbt-i-katolicyzm-tecza-nie-kloci-sie-z-wiara.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Łopiński, Dariusz Prosiecki, Marzanna Zielińska, Stefan Pastuszewski, Mieczysław Augustyn, Dawid Wildstein, Grzegorz Wszołek.