state of play: 08/18/2020

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Gądek on Bodnar Annoying PiS; RPO's Reclaim Seen as Dignity Issue on Nowogrodzka; Bodnar on 2017 Protests Influencing Imagination; Ziobro on Coalition's Meaningfulness; Karnowski on How Blockades Harm Most

Łukasz Mężyk

-- HOŁOWNIA ON PLATFORM'S PROBLEM, PIONTKOWSKI ON ZNP REPEATING OPPOSITION'S DEMANDS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/08/18/ -- ON THE EXPANDING PROTESTS IN BELARUS - JAGIENKA WILCZAK IN POLITYKA: “The protests, which began modestly on election night in Minsk, have spread across the entire country. On Sunday, the largest march of freedom and rally in history took place – such a powerful mobilization has never been seen by Belarusians before. They have never participated in a similar protest. On Monday, more factories, the pearls in the crown of the Belarusian economy, joined the strike. These have been strongholds of Alexander Lukashenka until now. Journalists from state television also went on strike. They want to tell the truth, although until now they have not mentioned the protests, arrests, or torture of detainees.” -- WILCZAK ON THE GENTLE BELARUSIAN SOCIETY: “So far, there is no clear leader. And perhaps it is solely due to the gentle disposition of Belarusians that no car has burned, no window has been smashed, no lawn has been trampled. People are protesting peacefully, even though the authorities have deeply offended them. They have taken to the streets, even though the internet is not working again and there are communication difficulties. Tsikhanouskaya, despite her lack of political experience, understands the situation. She issued a statement today, assuring that she is ready to take responsibility for the fate of the country, restore normalcy, calm emotions, and – most importantly – lead to new elections: transparent, fair, recognized by Europe and the world.” -- NOT A SINGLE WORD AGAINST RUSSIA WAS SPOKEN IN THE CAMPAIGN, PUTIN HAS NO INTEREST IN INTERVENTION - CONTINUES JAGIENKA WILCZAK: “Does Putin, however, have an interest in military intervention? Realistically speaking – nothing indicates it. Belarus's economy is strongly linked with Russia's, and Belarusians are very favorable to Moscow. Not a single word against Russia was spoken in the pre-election campaign; Tsikhanouskaya usually spoke in Russian. Almost every family has relatives or friends in Russia. A forceful intervention would threaten Putin with the loss of the image of a community of countries and nations that he has been building for years. Minsk is not Crimea; Putin probably remembers that.” -- LUKASHENKA'S RULE IS ON A SLIPPERY SLOPE, DESCENDING AT BREAKNECK SPEED, RUSSIA MAY WANT TO CREATE A NEW LEADER - JAGIENKA WILCZAK'S CONCLUSION: “Another matter: will such assistance not involve creating a new leader dependent on Moscow? Some Kremlin puppet who would replace Lukashenka. Such a scenario is not ruled out. Lukashenka's rule is on a slippery slope and is descending at breakneck speed. Putin understands this perfectly. If Lukashenka was an obstacle before, now he can smoothly place his man in Minsk. Although no one around Lukashenka today seems to rise even slightly above the general mediocrity, the winds of history are blowing…” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1967910,1,czy-putin-wkroczy-na-bialorus-mozliwe-scenariusze.read?src=mt -- BIELSAT ON THE 9TH DAY OF PROTESTS - SUMMARY: https://belsat.eu/pl/news/9-dzien-protestow-podsumowanie/ -- CORRECTION OF A QUOTE FABRICATED BY SZKŁO KONTAKTOWE FROM GLIŃSKI: https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/artykul/szklo-kontaktowe-tvn24-sprostowanie-fikcyjna-wypowiedz-piotra-glinskiego -- WP ON TVN24'S CORRECTION REGARDING GLIŃSKI: https://teleshow.wp.pl/szklo-kontaktowe-ze-sprostowaniem-za-fikcyjny-cytat-piotra-glinskiego-6544344979995264a -- THE RECLAIM OF THE RPO IS SEEN AS A DIGNITY ISSUE ON NOWOGRODZKA, BODNAR ANNOYED PI(S) - JACEK GĄDEK ON MOODS IN PIS: “A politician highly regarded on the right from the PiS camp says: - And I respect the current Ombudsman, Adam Bodnar. However, such a voice is isolated, because Bodnar has annoyed PiS many times. Therefore, reclaiming this office is perceived as a matter of dignity on Nowogrodzka. It is therefore highly unlikely that PiS will give the Ombudsman's office to someone from outside their own circle. PiS, however, does not have a clear idea regarding the election of a new Ombudsman. But they have various options. - The understanding is that we are waiting. There is one nomination that will be rejected by the Sejm. And then there must be another candidate - says a PiS politician.” -- GĄDEK ON GOWIN'S SCENARIO AND SOMEONE MODERATE PROPOSED BY THE OPPOSITION: “an option promoted by Jarosław Gowin's Agreement. Their scenario involves calling on the opposition to nominate a candidate for Ombudsman, and then the ruling camp would either agree or disagree. Such a person could be a generally respected, moderate judge. - Let them propose a candidate, but one who is ideologically impartial. No candidate leaning to the left is acceptable - says our interlocutor from Agreement. According to our information from the "gowinists'" calculations, such a move and the election of an Ombudsman in agreement with the opposition would be well received by a narrow but significant centrist and center-right electorate. On Nowogrodzka, this idea has not been discarded and is on the table. Nevertheless, PiS prefers more forceful solutions to chess-like moves.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,26217499,kto-po-adamie-bodnarze-trzy-scenariusze-pis-ws-nowego-rpo.html -- THE 2017 PROTESTS INFLUENCED SOCIAL AND EUROPEAN IMAGINATION, CREATING BARRIERS TO THE "ORBANIZATION" OF POLAND - ADAM BODNAR IN CONVERSATION WITH TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Of course, barriers to the process of "Orbanization" of Poland emerged along the way. The most important of these were the social protests in July 2017, which influenced social imagination, as well as the imagination of the European Union. They empowered civil and pro-democratic organizations. They showed that the issue of the rule of law is linked to membership in the European Union. The government's course has not changed, but there has been a decisive slowdown in reforms. The First President of the Supreme Court managed to serve out her term, which would not have happened without July 4, 2018, when she decided to oppose the prevailing law and not give up her constitutional office, supported by thousands of citizens gathered in Krasinski Square in Warsaw. The Criminal Chamber of the Supreme Court is not staffed in a way that would provide grounds to question its rulings. Disciplinary proceedings against judges are still ongoing, but they are encountering significant social and legal resistance. However, we will see what else will happen – all of this is a certain process. The European Union and its institutions continue to show that they are not letting go and that the state of Polish rule of law is important to them. -- BODNAR ON RELATIONS WITH THE PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY, ANSWERING SAWCZUK'S QUESTION: “On a formal level, they were decent. Offices respond to letters, they do not block the Ombudsman's actions, such as monitoring institutions, correctional facilities, police stations. However, there were many verbal attacks on me. I was also sued by TVP, which absolutely astonished my fellow ombudsmen from other countries. I recall that the case was finally concluded in June and the court dismissed the lawsuit. The biggest difficulty was in contacts with the Ministry of Justice. It was the main actor implementing changes concerning the rule of law, and the Ombudsman presented a completely different position, which affected daily relations. Sometimes the Ministry of Justice would not respond to completely obvious letters for many months. In this matter, I had to intervene with the Prime Minister. There were also ministers with whom it was possible to meet, as well as discuss and resolve various matters, for example, the Minister of Health or the Minister of Science and Higher Education.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/08/18/nie-ma-demokracji-bez-ochrony-praw-mniejszosci/ -- TUSK, WELL PROVIDED FOR IN BRUSSELS, DEMOLISHES SUPRA-PARTISAN CONSENSUS IN THE GERMAN SPIRIT - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The matter is, in essence, symbolic. Here is a former prime minister, himself very well provided for thanks to his service in Brussels (which he sought – as many indications suggest – by sacrificing important interests of the Republic on the altar of his own career), demolishing a supra-partisan plan, in the "German" spirit – in the best sense of the word – to resolve a truly urgent state matter. A matter that is as important for our state's survival as strong armed forces.” -- KARNOWSKI ON MPS-BUSINESSMEN AND THOSE WHO GOT RICH IN BRUSSELS: “No matter how much populism deputy-businessmen or deputies who got rich in Brussels pour out, the salaries of deputy ministers or deputies are at a level today that threaten the basic efficiency of our state. They generate obvious threats: corruption, maneuvering for future business opportunities, negative selection, low social prestige, flight to international structures. Anyone who doesn't understand this is either lying or truly wishes ill upon our state. If I were an enemy of the Polish state, I would support precisely this direction.” -- PARADOXICALLY, THIS HARMS THE OPPOSITION THE MOST - CONTINUES KARNOWSKI: “Paradoxically, this harms the opposition the most. Because it should be opposition parties that are particularly concerned about decent remuneration for parliamentarians – if only for the reason that they cannot hold positions in the government. But what does he care? He already left his colleagues in the lurch once, taking his suitcase, Grasiu and Bieńkowska, and leaving when the tide began to turn. And the funniest thing is that his former colleagues from KO are still applauding him… And one more thing: as we see here, in Poland, we can reach an agreement on important matters. It is from abroad that discord and veto come in every, even objectively very important, matter.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/513795-tusk-znow-demoluje-plan-zalatwienia-pilnej-sprawy-panstwowej -- SEARCHING FOR GUILTY PARTIES WITHIN THE PLATFORM - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO: “Within Civic Platform, in addition to individual MPs beating their chests, there is a search for those to blame. One of them is said to be the party leader and head of the parliamentary club, Borys Budka. MPs are complaining that he did not sense the political weight and consequences of this vote. Some believe it's a lack of political experience, others – an excess of duties that prevents him from overseeing what is happening in the Sejm. 'If I were the head of the [club], I would resign,' says one Civic Platform MP bluntly. For now, Budka is not taking responsibility; rather, he is shifting it: at a press conference on Monday, he said that the club's collegium made the decision and no one objected.” -- AND SO IT'S 1:0 FOR PIS - CONTINUES SZCZĘŚNIAK: “Another parliamentarian stated in a conversation with us on Monday that if the Senate rejects the bill, PiS will no longer deal with it. They will not attempt to override the Senate's veto. This is intended as a punishment for the opposition. So far, it's 1:0 for PiS.” https://oko.press/senat-odrzucil-podwyzki-ale-opozycja-nadal-w-glebokiej-dziurze/ -- THIS MATTER CAN TEACH THE OPPOSITION TO TALK TO VOTERS - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “This could also be the beginning of a completely different policy. One in which parties, as part of rectifying the disaster of their own stubbornness, truly begin to listen to the voices of their electorate and understand their demands. If this happens, then all this uproar could be extremely instructive in the longer term, and therefore beneficial for Polish politics. But knowing our opposition aces, the raises will likely be passed, because suddenly someone will forget to show up for the vote, suddenly someone's dog will eat their laptop, and suddenly they'll shout 'oh well, oh well' on Twitter, they'll shout, and they'll still vote for us in three years.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/awantura-o-pensje-parlamentarzystow-moze-byc-korzystna-dla-opozycji/ -- THE OPPOSITION HAS POSTPONED THE PROSPECT OF REGULATING POLITICIANS' REMUNERATION TO AN UNKNOWN FUTURE - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA: “Moreover, thanks to their eager fall into the trap set by PiS, the opposition has postponed the prospect of regulating the issue of remuneration for politicians, MPs, and government members to an unknown future. And although it is evident that deputy ministers earn too little in Poland, and the first lady deserves recognition for years of contributions to her pension for her work in the Presidential Palace, no one will address this issue quickly. Unless PiS decides to reject the Senate's objection in the Sejm and pass the raises after all. In that case, however, it will do so on its own. And the opposition may learn a lesson from the classic wisdom that says: 'Beware of the Greeks, even when they bring gifts.'” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/308179950-Dabrowska-Ani-podwyzki-ani-szacunku.html -- THE CULTURAL WAR IS WINNABLE, WE WANT TO FIGHT - ZBIGNIEW ZIOBRO IN CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “I even heard the opinion that socio-cultural and demographic processes are irreversible and that someday the Polish right-wing camp, following the path of British conservatives or German Christian Democrats, will have to adopt the progressive cultural agenda under the banner of LGBT. For me, this is defeatism and a white flag. However, if someone shares such thinking, the desire to bury ideological disputes deep underground is not surprising. And defining Solidarna Polska, which takes up ideological issues, as a problem is not surprising. We see that a cultural war for our identity, for our Polish soul, is indeed taking place now. And although it will not be easy, it is still winnable. However, only on the condition that we do not sleep through this time and are not lukewarm, like conservative and Christian parties in Western Europe once were. We must be decisive and ready to work in many areas. That's how SP will be. We do not intend to give up. We want and will fight in defense of our Christian identity. For that is where Polishness stems from. We are not afraid. We are on the right side. And we trust that we will convince the entire United Right camp of this vision.” -- I WOULD BE THE FIRST TO OPPOSE THE PERSECUTION OF INDIVIDUALS - CONTINUES ZIOBRO: “You know perfectly well that it is not about 'LGBT-free' zones, but 'free from LGBT ideology.' This is a fundamental difference. Polish authorities do not persecute LGBT individuals. I would be the first to oppose it! Local governments simply do not agree to the offensive actions of these environments, which want to impose their ideology. I don't care about someone's sexual orientation, because those are private matters. The problem, however, is the aggressive promotion of one's preferences, demanding the introduction of same-sex marriage or adoption of children by same-sex partners. In Poland, LGBT individuals are safe and have guaranteed all civil liberties. They can associate, they have their organizations, clubs, press, they organize parades, rallies, protests…” -- ZIOBRO ON NIZINKIEWICZ'S QUESTION ABOUT PRESIDENTIAL PLANS IN 2025: “No. I have no such plans.” -- A COALITION MAKES SENSE IF ALL COALITION PARTNERS HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO EFFECTIVELY IMPLEMENT THEIR PROGRAM - CONTINUES ZIOBRO: “Solidarna Polska will not become part of PiS. We are an independent party that is part of the United Right coalition. We want to remain in this coalition. If cooperation develops well, starting from one list will be beneficial for everyone. However, a coalition makes sense if all coalition partners have the opportunity to effectively – for the good of Poland – implement their electoral program. We want the program of Solidarna Polska to be reflected more in the government's actual actions.” https://www.rp.pl/Solidarna-Polska/308179938-Zbigniew-Ziobro-Trwa-wojna-o-nasza-polska-dusze.html -- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ZIOBRO'S FIFTIETH BIRTHDAY - HE IS ENTERING THE FIGHT FOR LEADERSHIP, THIS IS HIS KEY GAME: “Today Zbigniew Ziobro turns 50. And he is entering the fight for leadership on the right after Jarosław Kaczyński. In the year of his Golden Jubilee, Ziobro will continue to bombard Morawiecki. This is the key game of his life – and of Polish politics.” -- STANKIEWICZ ON ZIOBRO'S PROSPECTS: “Where will Ziobro be in a decade? It is known where he would like to be. It is hard to assume that in 2030, Jarosław Kaczyński will be a sprightly 81-year-old still controlling the Polish political scene. Kaczyński may already be out of politics; PiS in its current form may even cease to exist. But there will certainly be some form of right-wing politics – and Ziobro is fighting today to be its leader then. In a scenario favorable to him, he has a chance. But there are masses of pitfalls along the way. Morawiecki may prove more effective, and with Kaczyński's support, he has a chance to win the power struggle. Moreover, if in the next decade the liberal or left-wing opposition comes to power, Ziobro will be at the absolute forefront of United Right politicians who will face accountability. A trial in the State Tribunal, i.e., punishment for abuse of power, is very real, because the State Tribunal is formed by any new government. And such a verdict means a temporary ban on political activity. Morawiecki is much lower on the opposition's accountability list. However, Ziobro has already once – after the PiS governments in 2005-2007 – escaped from Platform and its State Tribunal. Moreover, he returned to power strengthened as Minister of Justice. Now, he is only interested in the positions of Prime Minister or President.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/zbigniew-ziobro-konczy-50-lat-sylwetka/fzrkp9z -- I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT FEMININE LAST NAMES ARE USED IN CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN THE OMBUDSMAN'S OFFICE AND THE ARREST FACILITY - MAREK DOMAGALSKI IN RZ ON THE COMPLEXITY OF THE MATTER: “It's not just about someone's private or even intimate affairs. In that case, we probably wouldn't be talking about it, as it would be a violation of privacy. But it's about a person facing criminal responsibility for public misconduct. In this sphere, we have the right, and journalists have a duty, to use objective criteria in describing a person's behavior. Perhaps the appropriate way to refer to them would be to give their surname (now abbreviated to initials due to criminal proceedings), indicating the feminine form that Michał Sz. chose ('Margot')? The Ombudsman for Civil Rights says that in his office, the name Margot is used, but I don't believe that the surname has also been changed to feminine in documents – for example, in correspondence with the arrest facility.” -- PUBLIC DEBATE ASSUMES DIFFERENT VIEWS, EVEN INACCURATE AND UNPOLISHED ONES - CONTINUES DOMAGALSKI: “Secondly, some may have doubts as to whether Michał Sz.'s choice is authentic, or whether it is merely an element of his public, and perhaps political, creation. And activity in the public sphere justifies a kind of scrutiny of such a person. The most important thing is moderation: on the one hand, not to flaunt the issue of gender change and the 'old' surname and first name, but also not to pressure people who are not convinced whether the change is genuine or instrumentalized. This would be an interference with the freedom of public debate, which assumes different views, including inaccurate and unpolished ones.” -- DURING THE PO AND PSL GOVERNMENTS, WERE THE RIGHTS OF DEMONSTRATORS OF INTEREST? - MICHAŁ RACHOŃ IN NIEZALEŻNA: “There were certainly opportunities. Not one or two. Every time, during the SLD or Platform governments, when anyone participating in a happening or demonstration was identified by the police. When they took us to the police station after demonstrations, we could have lunged with our fists, we could have spat out a few curses. However, regardless of the reasons for the demonstration, we did not do so.” -- RACHOŃ ON POLICE PRACTICES TOWARDS DEMONSTRATORS UNDER THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT: “Organizers of a large demonstration, which took place before the Russian embassy a few days before the anniversary of the Smolensk disaster, were pulled out of a bus, apprehended by plainclothes officers, and taken to the police station. This happened even though none of them had ever raised a hand against anyone. None of these actions were met with condemnation from the then ruling Civic Platform or the SLD represented in parliament. EU institutions did not comment at the time. Today, it is different.” https://m.niezalezna.pl/346641-teczowa-piesc-i-noz -- THE CHURCH HAS LOST THE ABILITY TO CONVERSE WITH THE WORLD, THE COLLAPSE OF THE CATHOLIC IMAGINARIUM - PIOTR WILKIN IN KLUB JAGIELLOŃSKI: “The Manichean vision of the struggle between good and evil does not allow for nuance, conversation, or doubt. The Church has adopted this perception of reality and thus has driven itself into the logic of a cultural war. As a result, it has lost the ability to converse with the world, to address its problems, and to draw from its tradition to find solutions. Instead, it is increasingly entangled in ad hoc political alliances and conflicts with science, mainly with psychology. This is precisely the cause of the collapse of the Catholic imaginarium.” -- THE CHURCH SHOULD DISTANCE ITSELF FROM CONNECTIONS WITH POLITICIANS AND SHADY BUSINESSMEN; CONSERVATIVES MAY LOSE THE GLOBAL POLITICAL CONTEST - CONTINUES WILKIN: “If we care about saving the Christian imaginarium, and especially about countering the increasingly egoistic-individualistic culture of the West, the way to do it is not by trying to romantically idealize a conservative paradise from a hundred years ago (because such a thing did not exist) nor by engaging in a dirty war with the left, which is increasingly contrary to Christian values. Instead, the Church should return to its roots – distance itself from connections with shady conservative politicians and businessmen who use the Church for the same purpose that large corporations use the LGBT minority – so-called virtue signaling, i.e., using a stance on one issue to gain a kind of moral immunity for immoral behavior in other spheres. Otherwise, not only will conservatives lose the global political contest, which in itself should not be of special importance, especially for Christians, but they may also lose the ability to keep uncontrolled progressive left-wing ideas in check. And this will most likely not end well for anyone.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/08/15/dlaczego-katolicy-przegrywaja-wojne-kulturowa-katolickie-imaginarium/ -- AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW ON VACATIONS WITH KONFEDERACJA: “In six days, the Konfederacja members visited 18 towns. One of the MPs says: – We will certainly not waste the capital we already have. The clubs will ensure our activity and allow us to identify grassroots leaders in the regions. In three years, we will be even better prepared than last time.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26209628,wakacje-z-konfederacja-konfederaci-lowia-mlody-elektorat-nad.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Zbigniew Ziobro turns 50.

Łukasz Mężyk