state of play: 08/11/2020
Political Landscape: Eye on Belarus, Poland's Enhanced Security, and EU Relations
-- GLIŃSKI ON SEXUALITY AS A PRIVATE MATTER, LICHOCKA ON THE MEDIA LAW, SAWICKI ON HOŁOWNIA BEING LIKE PETRU - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/08/11/
-- ANY SHIFT OF SOLDIERS TO POLAND IS BENEFICIAL, AMERICAN TROOPS WILL BE AN ELEMENT OF THE DEFENSE PLAN FOR POLAND - WITOLD WASZCZYKOWSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Any shift of several hundred or several thousand soldiers to Poland is beneficial from the perspective of our security. It is credible deterrence. I keep reminding the example of West Berlin during the Cold War. It was a small enclave, the Russians could have covered it with their caps, but several thousand allied troops deterred effectively enough that there were no incidents or armed actions. Furthermore, the movement of troops allows for a quick reaction to so-called low-intensity conflicts. Finally, allied forces have also come to Poland in the past for various exercises, because we have large training grounds and barracks. But they were not integrated into Polish defense. Now, American troops will be an element of the defense plan for Poland, which is very important”.
-- SINCE 2015, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING A QUALITATIVE LEAP IN POLAND'S SECURITY - WASZCZYKOWSKI FURTHER IN KL: “Certainly, since 2015, we have seen a significant qualitative leap in terms of Poland's security. We have, among other things, a NATO battalion group, an American armored brigade, an anti-missile base under construction, as well as the decision to establish an American corps command – and the presence of a command, which must be equipped with defense plans for itself and for Poland, is often more important than the soldiers themselves”.
-- WE ARE BUYING THE MOST MODERN EQUIPMENT THAT EUROPE DOES NOT HAVE - WASZCZYKOWSKI FURTHER: “It's not for free, and we are deriving real benefits from it. We are buying the best equipment that Europe does not possess. It doesn't build Patriot missiles and doesn't have F-35s. There is no competitive European offer, and if there is, European systems are more complicated and expensive. In the case of energy, the situation is similar. Germany is proposing that we join Nord Stream, which means further dependence on Russia. This is not an alternative. There is no other way – not because we have an ideological obsession with cooperation with Americans, it is simply a better option”.
-- WE HAVE A CLEAN SLATE WITH BELARUS FOR PEACEFUL COOPERATION - WASZCZYKOWSKI TELLS SAWCZUK: “We have no conflicts with Belarus – neither historical nor current. We have a clean slate for peaceful cooperation, should it democratize. We can offer Belarus a lot from our experience. In the case of Ukraine, the size and potential of that country indicate that it will strive for leadership in the region, to have its rights recognized. Of course, this may not happen, but just in case, one should always keep in mind gray or black scenarios”.
-- I DO NOT SEE A MOOD FOR A MAIDAN THERE, PERHAPS A GENTLE TRANSFORMATION WILL OCCUR, GUARANTEEING HIS IMMUNITY LIKE OUR COMMUNISTS 30 YEARS AGO - WASZCZYKOWSKI FURTHER: “I don't see such a mood. Belarusians are tired of Lukashenka, they would like to change him, but not in a violent way. I don't see a mood for a Maidan there. They are a more peaceful, gentler nation than Ukrainians. Perhaps over time, some 'round table' agreement will be reached, a gentle transformation, a transfer of power – if Lukashenka's people are guaranteed immunity, just like our communists 30 years ago”.
-- WE MUST SHOW LUKASHENKA THAT JARUZELSKI LIVED TO SEE HIS YEARS - WASZCZYKOWSKI FURTHER: “We need to persuade him to do this. Show Lukashenka that yes, Ceaușescu was executed in Romania, but nearby in Poland, a transformation took place during which not a hair fell from his head – Jaruzelski lived to see his years”.
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/08/11/trzeba-namawiac-lukaszenke-do-okraglego-stolu/
-- OUTRIDE.RS CONFIRMS THAT TIKHANOVSKAYA WAS FORCED TO LEAVE: “Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was forced to leave Belarus by the authorities – this information was confirmed in an interview with Gazeta.pl by Piotr Andrusieczko from Outride.rs, who is currently in Minsk. – However, there is no information on how this happened – he adds”.
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114871,26200301,swiatlana-cichanouska-jest-na-litwie-zostala-zmuszona-do-wyjazdu.html
-- THIS IS PROBABLY A MORE BRUTAL NIGHT THAN DURING SUNDAY'S PROTESTS - REPORTS MACIEK PIASECKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Update at 0:03 AM. I am in a safe place now, but there are still protesters on the streets trying to survive in an unequal struggle with the OMON forces. The authorities are using stun grenades, firing rubber bullets, tear gas fills the streets, and ambulances with sirens are crossing intersections. This is probably a more brutal night than during yesterday's protests; the Ministry of Internal Affairs has confirmed one fatality. It is past 1 AM in Minsk, I am ending my report now. I hope to send updates on the night and video materials to the editorial office on Tuesday morning. Update at 11:20 PM. My eyes are watering and my face is burning from the grenades and gas. I am slowly making my way to a safe place. People are playing the song “We Want Change” by the band Kino from car speakers and phones”. https://oko.press/drugi-dzien-protestow-na-bialorusi-omon-atakuje-ludzi-w-minsku-gdzie-jest-cichanouska/
-- THE BARRIER OF FEAR HAS BEEN BROKEN IN BELARUS, PEOPLE HAVE STARTED TO EXPRESS OPINIONS OPENLY - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI IN A TELEPHONE REPORT COMPILED BY MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “It is worth mentioning at this point that the barrier of fear has been broken in Belarus; people have started to express their views openly. This also applies to smaller towns and villages, several of which I managed to visit in previous days, gathering various opinions. My observations align with the predictions of independent centers that roughly 2/3 to 3/4 of citizens support the opposition; of course, there are people who are afraid to answer questions, do not want to give their real names, and some, seeing strangers trying to strike up a conversation, quicken their pace – nevertheless, many people approached us themselves”.
-- THE OPPOSITION HAS LEARNED GREAT SELF-DISCIPLINE AND IS TECHNOLOGICALLY ADVANCED - SIERAKOWSKI FURTHER IN THE REPORT IN KRYTYKA: “The opposition has learned great self-discipline, and it is also technologically advanced. The dictatorship controls official media entirely, so something like a second circulation has emerged, but in a digital version. In Belarus today, there are independent media, primarily online portals, whose reach has increased by 300-400% in recent weeks, reaching mass proportions. The most important ones are Nasha Niva, Radio Svaboda, and tut.by, along with several smaller ones. Alongside them, there are also popular YouTube and Telegram channels – for example, by blogger Nexta”.
-- THE INDEPENDENT VOICE OF THE SECOND CIRCULATION REACHES A VAST PART OF BELARUS'S 9 MILLION POPULATION - SIERAKOWSKI FURTHER: “The most famous video bloggers even have several hundred thousand subscribers, and Belarus has a population of 9 million, with 6 million eligible to vote. Independent communication already reaches a vast part of the population, also because these 'second circulation' media are considered credible. People, regardless of their views, treat them as normal mainstream, where one can get oriented, for example, on the issue of COVID-19”.
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/protesty-minsk-bialorus-slawomir-sierakowski/
-- POLES ARE AN EXTREMELY EMOTIONAL NATION - ŁUKASZ WARZECHA IN Onet: “Poles are an extremely emotional nation (yes, I believe nations have national characteristics). Our thinking about international conflicts and disputes was reflected in the slogan 'For our freedom and yours, in the name of God,' allegedly coined by Joachim Lelewel during the November Uprising and meant to signal that the uprising was not 'egoistic' but also concerned those who had problems with the Tsar in Russia”.
-- WARZECHA ON THE CASE OF CHECHNYA AS A LACK OF REFLECTION AMONG POLES: “An example of a lack of reflection and heightened emotion was the Polish approach to the Chechnya issue, among others. When the war with Russia was ongoing there in the mid-1990s, the Polish public opinion and a significant part of politicians saw only that a heroic small nation was fighting our eternal enemy. They did not recognize the dangerous consequences – and today Chechnya is one of the worst breeding grounds for Islamic radicalism, which has smoothly merged with anti-Russian sentiment”.
-- THE STATE SHOULD BE GUIDED BY REALISM; THE FALL OF LUKASHENKA IS NOT NECESSARILY BENEFICIAL - WARZECHA FURTHER: “Contrary to what many emotional admirers of the slogan 'for our freedom and yours' might think, the Polish state should be guided primarily by its own tough and realistically defined interests, not by storms of emotion. And if one looks at the issue from this perspective, the eventual fall of Alexander Lukashenka is not necessarily beneficial for Poland. (...) A wise politician should always consider what the alternative is. Of course, Lukashenka is not our dream, and Poland has had problems with him, especially regarding the Polish minority. But what in return?”
-- STRIVE FOR COMMUNALIZATION, SHOW EU PARTNERS THAT WE HAVE GOOD INSIGHT AND INSTRUMENTS LIKE BIELSAT - WARZECHA'S CONCLUSION: “It can, of course, turn out that the scenario ultimately unfolds in a relatively favorable way for Poland. We should certainly strive now to communalize the issue of Belarus – provided, of course, that we are not marginalized within this framework. It would be an asset if we could show our EU partners that we have both good insight into the local affairs and instruments of influence (such as Biełsat). This did not work out for us in the case of Ukraine. Generally, however, it is worth cooling down emotions and remembering that great elation and romantic emotional outbursts are good for academies dedicated to 19th-century national poets, but they should not govern in the offices where Polish foreign policy is shaped. There, hard interests must prevail.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/warzecha-czy-mozemy-miec-pewnosc-ze-moskwa-nie-podsyca-antylukaszenkowych-nastrojow/v1rczfe,79cfc278
-- THE WEST HAS NO OFFER FOR BELARUS - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “It seems, however, that such an attempt by the Polish authorities to find an indirect path between limiting Lukashenka's power and protecting fundamental civil rights, and saving Belarusian statehood from Russian imperialism, has little chance of success. In times of moving away from globalization, the return of American isolationism, and nationalisms in Europe, the division of the world into spheres of influence and hostile political blocs has returned with full force. Poland belongs to one of them (Western Europe), Belarus to the other (Eastern Europe). And overcoming this barrier in the foreseeable future does not seem possible”.
https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/308109935-Jedrzej-Bielecki-Zachod-nie-ma-zadnej-oferty-dla-Bialorusi.html
-- BELARUS FACES A LONG MARCH - on the first page of DGP.
-- THE WHITE REVOLUTION IN BELARUS CLEARLY SURPRISED POLISH DIPLOMACY - Magdalena Cedro in DGP https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1488087,bialorus-minsk-biala-rewolucja-dyplomacja.html
-- TOMASZ BIELECKI IN GW ON THE PROBLEM OF THE HIGH REPRESENTATIVE WITH REACHING AN EU POSITION: “The snag is that Borrell did not negotiate a consensus on a statement – which would have had higher standing – 'on behalf of the 27 EU countries.' This shows that behind the rather firm demand for the announcement of the true election results, there is not necessarily a firm willingness from the entire EU to draw consequences for Alexander Lukashenka”.
-- PUSH BELARUS TO THE CENTER OF INTEREST - BIELECKI QUOTES AN EU DIPLOMAT: “As one EU diplomat explains, the main task now should be to push Belarus as close as possible to the center of the entire EU's interest (given the difficult 'competition' from the EU's southern neighborhood). And only then would a plan of action be developed, including possible incentives for Lukashenka for internal détente and dialogue, or sanctions. In 2015, the EU lifted the sanctions imposed on the Lukashenka regime after the 2010 elections”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,26197964,ue-potepia-minsk-za-uzycie-przemocy-i-sfalszowanie-wyborow.html
-- AFTER MONTHS OF SILENCE, THE ACTIVITY OF POLISH AUTHORITIES TODAY IS UNNOTICEABLE - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called on the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and Ursula von der Leyen to convene a European Council meeting on Belarus. The only tool the EU has against Belarus is to reintroduce sanctions no less extensive than those that were in place in 2016. However, after months and years of silence, the activity of the Polish authorities today is completely unnoticeable”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26198769,w-obronie-demokracji-i-praw-czlowieka-na-bialorusi-warszawa.html
-- JACEK GĄDEK ON THE IDEA OF DIRECTLY TRANSFERRING PROVISIONS OF THE FRENCH MEDIA LAW - WRITES IN GAZETA.PL: “The most seriously considered option is to transfer the solutions currently in force in France to the Polish context. The regulations there date back 30-40 years and have been amended since – they are very detailed, and the traditions of regulating the market are even longer. Currently, in France – as we read in a study by the Staszic Institute, for example – for television, one shareholder cannot own more than 49% of the capital in companies holding a license to broadcast terrestrial TV nationwide, whose average annual viewership exceeds 8% of total television viewing. There are also deconcentration provisions for the press and radio markets. As well as a number of provisions on cross-deconcentration: the same capital has a limited presence in several markets simultaneously, e.g., radio, press, and television. French law is therefore restrictive by European standards. These regulations specify concrete percentage limits – so even by copying the French model, it is easy to juggle these percentages to achieve different effects of the law for specific media concerns”.
-- GĄDEK ON PIS'S NARRATIVE CALCULATIONS FROM DIRECTLY TRANSFERRING FRENCH SOLUTIONS: “The advantages of transferring the French model to Poland are clear to Nowogrodzka. A source from PiS says: – Some say we want Polexit, but we want to take the best from Western Europe. So, we will probably adopt the French model. We can even adopt it 1 to 1. Really. We can rely on the French model to such an extent that it will help us avoid accusations of Putinizing Poland or creating a second Belarus. We want France, not Putin's Russia. We hear it's meant to be a government project rather than a parliamentary one, although the parliamentary route is simpler”.
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,26198159,pis-moze-skopiowac-model-francuski-1-1-po-wakacjach-odpala.html
-- IF YOU'RE WONDERING WHY THE OPPOSITION IS LOSING... - MACIEJ GDULA - IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA - INSTEAD OF LIONS, WE HAVE FOXES ASKING IF DEFENDING LGBT IS PROFITABLE: “It's nice to defend freedom, equality, democracy, and Europeanism when these are pleasant and festive values. When you're at an academy or marching in the Schuman parade and acting as a priest of openness and liberalism. Or when you use these values to attack PiS, which threatens 'everything' we hold dear. However, the difficulties begin when we move to specifics. This is the case today with the demands and struggles of the LGBT community. When they are attacked, activists are not only demonized but simply persecuted by the authorities. Suddenly, instead of lions that encouraged unity in the name of democracy, we have foxes asking if taking a stand for LGBT is profitable”.
-- THE SAYING GOES, TRZASKOWSKI APPEARS AND DOESN'T UTTER THE ACRONYM LGBT FOR FEAR OF HIS BACKING AND THE RIGHT - GDULA FURTHER: “The proverbial Trzaskowski always appears, who in vague terms will say that we need mutual respect and that we are historically destined for freedom, but at the same time, he will not loudly utter the acronym LGBT. He will do so out of fear of his own political base and the right wing. Because otherwise, he would have to explain himself. After all, LGBT, women's rights, moving away from coal, and a secular state are such controversial and, in fact, embarrassing issues. The problem for the broadly understood opposition today is a lack of credibility”.
-- THEY SHOW THAT THE STAKE IS NOT FREEDOM BUT TAKING POWER - GDULA FURTHER: “You cannot be both a lion and a fox. You cannot shout about your love for freedom but dodge when it comes to the freedom of LGBT people or women. This means you can, but then you shouldn't be surprised that people don't fully want to support politicians who proudly puff out their democratic chests when it doesn't involve risk, but tuck their tails between their legs in situations requiring courage and standing up for the weaker. As long as the red tail wags behind the mane, it will be difficult to convince the majority of Poles that the confrontation with PiS is truly a conflict where the stake is freedom, equality, and Europeanness. Because the tail signifies that the stake of the fight is taking power, not a deeper change and arranging Poland in such a way that there is a place for everyone”.
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/maciej-gdula/opozycji-brakuje-wiarygodnosci/
-- THE BEHAVIOR OF THE ACTIVIST MARGOT TOWARDS THE TRUCK DRIVER WAS SCANDALOUS - ALEKSANDER HALL IN CONVERSATION WITH MARZENA TARKOVSKA IN RZ: “It is difficult for me to give a definitive opinion, as I would need to know the matter thoroughly. However, the behavior of activist Margot towards the truck driver was scandalous. Nevertheless, there is no doubt that law enforcement agencies, including the police, apply different standards to environments hostile or unfavorable to the authorities, including LGBT communities, and completely different standards to far-right groups. For example, in the case of the so-called happening, participants of which hung portraits of Civic Platform MEPs on gallows. The police's sluggishness and turning a blind eye to this matter was also a scandal”.
-- THERE IS NO JUSTIFICATION FOR VIOLENCE, I DISAGREE WITH THE DEFENDERS OF ACTIVIST MARGOT - HALL FURTHER: “Violence is increasingly entering our lives. There is no justification for acts of aggression and physical violence. On this issue, I completely disagree with the defenders of activist Margot”.
-- THE ESCALATION OF THE CULTURE WAR BENEFITS EXTREME FORCES ON BOTH SIDES - HALL FURTHER: “On this issue, too, I do not want to form a definitive judgment. I have seen various photos and reports from Friday's events on television. I will generalize. The escalation of the culture war benefits extreme forces. Both on the extreme left and the extreme right. It certainly does great harm to Poland”.
https://www.rp.pl/Publicystyka/308109933-Dwie-rozne-miary.html
-- NO PARTY GAME CAN BE A REASON FOR A SENSELESS SHOW OF FORCE - PAWEŁ BRAVO IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The police acted in such a way as to conduct the arrest spectacularly and provoke a predictable angry reaction from activists. This, in turn, was a convenient pretext to use – for the benefit of government media and as a deterrent – violence disproportionate to the degree of threat to public order. No party game can be a reason for a senseless show of force that undermines the authority of the state. Erosion of authority is followed by justified mistrust, manifested, for example, in accusing the state apparatus of cruelty stemming from disregarding which gender the arrested person identifies with”.
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/prawo-i-empatia-164423
-- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON SZUMOWSKI'S REACTION TO PAWLICKI'S TEXT ABOUT THE PANDEMIC FROM THE COVER OF SIEĆ: “Minister Szumowski can be indignant, he can snap at us (that's his job), but the government – as a whole – must rethink its approach to the epidemic. It must answer the question: should only virologists decide on this matter? If road safety experts decided how and where we drive, we would never exceed 30 km/h. Therefore, the focus must shift from the debate about the number of infections to the number of deaths – because that is the most important thing”.
-- IN MARCH, IT WAS IMPOSSIBLE TO ACT OTHERWISE, BUT TODAY LESSONS MUST BE LEARNED - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “I think Minister Szumowski should calmly read it and help the government identify wise paths out of the spiral of a perpetual – for the majority asymptomatic – and terribly costly epidemic. This must be done quickly, before autumn, which must mean a return to schools. If this happens with the current level of sensitivity, it will quickly end in catastrophe. Including a political one, because the opposition is playing for chaos and people's fatigue. I repeat: in March, it was impossible to react otherwise. But today, lessons must be learned”.
https://wpolityce.pl/spoleczenstwo/512842-pan-minister-szumowski-niepotrzebnie-bierze-to-do-siebie
-- THE FUSION WITH PGNiG WILL BE EASIER THAN WITH LOTOS - DANIEL OBAJTEK IN CONVERSATION WITH DGP: “It will be a much simpler merger than with Lotos, for one simple reason – in this case, we are not combining the same production assets or the same type of business. In the case of Lotos, business concentration is very high, not only in Poland but also in the region. The easiest was with Energa, because even though we have an energy sector in Orlen, the concentration was not high. I estimate the difficulty level of obtaining the Commission's approval for the acquisition of PGNiG to be 'between' these two applications”.
-- WE NEED TO SCIENTIZE AND DIVIDE THE GROUP'S ACTIVITIES INTO SEGMENTS - OBAJTEK FURTHER: “We would certainly like to submit it this year. The legal entities that will represent us, and business advisors, have already been selected. We must conduct this efficiently, especially since we would like both integration processes with PGNiG and Lotos to coincide. After their launch, we must quickly develop an optimization program for the entire group, including Orlen. We need to sci-entize and divide activities into segments: oil, gas, petrochemicals, energy, and establish innovation and optimization offices. Activities in individual segments will be structured under those companies that have the greatest market strength, experience, and know-how. It will not be the case that only Orlen companies take over everything. For example, in the field of rail transport, Lotos Kolej will play a leading role”.
https://biznes.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1488109,obajtek-pgnig-lotos-orlen-wywiad.html
-- ACCORDING TO SE, THE PRESIDENT HAD A MINOR ACCIDENT ON A WATER SCOOTER: https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/grozny-wypadek-prezydenta-dudy-na-baltyku-aa-Eumh-4pUw-NjuD.html
-- HISTORIAN DARIUSZ BALISZEWSKI HAS DIED: https://www.rdc.pl/informacje/zmarl-dariusz-baliszewski-dziennikarz-historyk-mial-74-lata/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Bartosz Kownacki, Mateusz Szczurek, Łukasz Kamiński, Andrzej Biernat, Paweł Klimowicz.
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