state of play: 08/10/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Konończuk from OSW: Kaczmarski's "Walls" became the anthem of the opposition women's campaign, Wojtczuk: How can you build a social movement if you didn't defend citizens? Trzaskowski: With happenings and provocations, we won't reach the con

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE PRIME MINISTER WANTS TO CONVENE THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON BELARUS, SZUMOWSKI RIDICULES CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUT CORONAVIRUS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/08/10/ -- THE LATEST VERIFIED INFORMATION FROM BELARUS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE ON BELSAT PAGES: https://belsat.eu/pl/ -- THE ASPIRATIONS OF SOCIETY HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED; WITHOUT A CHANGE OF POWER AND A NORMAL MECHANISM FOR THE EXCHANGE OF ELITES, THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE STANDARD OF LIVING - WOJCIECH KONOŃCZUK, DEPUTY HEAD OF THE CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES - WRITES IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY (text completed a week ago): “Meanwhile, the aspirations of society have significantly increased – and it seems that the largest percentage in 26 years has begun to understand that without a change of power and a normal mechanism for the exchange of elites, there is no chance for an improvement in the standard of living, for raising it to the level that can be seen, for example, across the Bug River. Lukashenka, without understanding it himself, has become anachronistic, and his actions evoke more pity than fear.” -- THE COURAGE OF THESE WOMEN MUST BE IMPRESSIVE - KONOŃCZUK FURTHER IN TP: “The courage of three women, who in a traditional and masculinized society have challenged the dictator, must be impressive. And they are undoubtedly a much more difficult opponent for the authorities. Their activity is also impressive. Knowing that there is little time left until the election, they visit three cities a day. It is also visible that the combined forces of the three campaign headquarters (about a hundred people) have an idea for the campaign. The symbol of the female trio quickly appeared: a heart, a clenched fist, and a "V", the sign of victory. Photos of Tsikhanouskaya, Kalesnikava, and Tsapkala smiling and making these signs have spread across Belarus. This is accompanied by a white ribbon worn on the wrist.” -- KONOŃCZUK ON KACZMARSKI'S "WALLS" IN THE BELARUSIAN CAMPAIGN: “Jacek Kaczmarski's "Walls" with lyrics became the anthem of the opposition women's campaign. This song – in both Russian and Belarusian versions – accompanies every rally they hold. Watching the recording, where several thousand residents of Gomel – one of the most Sovietized Belarusian cities – sing the words “Tear out the iron teeth of the bars! / Break the chains, break the whip!”, one can find confirmation of the thesis of how much society has changed.” -- KONOŃCZUK QUOTES KALESNIKAVA'S ELEGANT WORDS: “In a recent interview with the Russian daily "Kommersant", Maria Kalesnikava – a flutist and unexpected politician, and at the same time the most charismatic figure of the trio – said: “In chess, there is a position called zugzwang [a situation where any move by a player worsens their position – ed.]. The authorities are now in it. Whatever they do, the end is simply a matter of time.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/trio-kontra-dyktator-164366 -- THERE HAS NEVER BEEN SUCH MOBILIZATION IN BELARUS, WILL THESE PEOPLE ENDURE? - JAGIENKA WILCZAK IN POLITYKA: “The army is with the authorities. Stories about it switching to the side of the opposition are just a dream with no connection to reality. The militia is also brutal. As long as they defend Lukashenka, change is difficult. In smaller cities, which also stood up to Lukashenka, rallies were quickly dispersed, gas and stun grenades were used, the same method was applied everywhere: force. They try to intimidate people everywhere. It's interesting with what effect? Tanks and armored vehicles stand in Minsk. This is what democracy à la Lukashenka's fashion looks like.” -- SUCH EMOTIONS HAVE NEVER BEEN FELT, DETERMINATION WAS GROWING - JAGIENKA WILCZAK FURTHER: “Tsikhanouskaya is not a politician and never has been an activist. She entered the fight in place of, or rather on behalf of, her husband held in custody. She began to attract crowds, evoke emotions, and at her rallies, Kaczmarski's "Walls" was sung. The determination to finally make a change grew in people day by day. And you could feel it too: her rallies were spontaneous, phenomenal. Such emotions have never been felt in Belarus. A new generation has grown up, and it no longer wants to live the same way. Nothing is the same anymore, and it's no longer possible to isolate the country from the rest of the world as before.” -- A LARGE PIECE OF THE BELARUSIAN FATE IS BEING DECIDED IN MINSK - WILCZAK FURTHER: “And what now? Will people take to the square, will they want to protest until they win democracy? Will silence fall until the next opportunity, the next elections? One thing is certain: there has never been such a stir, such a mobilization of society in Belarus. I don't think anyone believes that Lukashenka won in a democratic and fair fight. I think that a large piece of Belarusian destiny is being decided in Minsk. Will people stick to their cry: “we want change”? Will they want to fight for these changes? Without bloodshed, through steadfastness, solidarity? Otherwise, they will remain condemned to Lukashenka's rule until the end of the world, and even longer.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1966882,1,takiej-mobilizacji-na-bialorusi-nie-bylo-nigdy-czy-ludzie-wytrwaja.read -- NO ONE FROM LUKASHENKA'S CIRCLE LOVES HIM ANYMORE - MARIA KOLESNIKOVA IN CONVERSATION WITH SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI: ”I believe that he has already been abandoned by these people. They have started to turn away. No one from his entourage loves him, no one likes him or supports him. You can see it on their faces.” -- HE HAS LOST AND CAN'T UNDERSTAND IT - KOLESNIKOVA FURTHER: “And Lukashenka lost the most when he said that a woman cannot be the president of Belarus. That our constitution was not created for women. And we make up 55% of the Belarusian population. Lukashenka has lost and cannot understand it. But someone will eventually explain it to him.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1966820,1,maria-kolesnikowa-rewolucja-kobiet-zaskoczyla-lukaszenke.read -- BARTOSZ WĘGLARCZYK ON SANCTIONS: “Poland and other countries should provide assistance to the Belarusian opposition. We should support young Belarusians who no longer remember the USSR and do not deserve this nightmarish journey through time. The European Union, on the other hand, should impose sanctions on all repressors. It is worth doing the work and identifying as many Belarusian secret police agents as possible who have been chasing people through the streets of Minsk, Brest, and other Belarusian cities in recent days. The leadership of the KGB, militia, Ministry of Internal Affairs, army, and presidential administration, as well as all those who had a hand in falsifying today's elections, should all be banned from entering the entire European Union. We should encourage other countries, especially Great Britain, the USA, and the countries of former Yugoslavia, to do the same. Sanctions should also cover the immediate families of people who think Leonid Brezhnev has come back to life and is ruling in Minsk. Such sanctions will painfully affect some and spare others. KGB agents should know that there is a price they will pay for what they are doing.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/bialorus-wraca-do-zsrr-pora-na-sankcje-ue-komentarz/qwhe0s5,79cfc278 -- NOTHING DESTROYS THE AUTHORITY OF THE STATE LIKE STRAINING WEAK MUSCLES IN INAPPROPRIATE MATTERS - PIOTR KASZCZYSZYN IN THE JAGELLONIAN CLUB: “The Margot case is doubly annoying. Firstly, because hooliganism in the name of leftist values is now being presented as a pathos-filled fight for freedom of speech and conscience. Secondly, because Margot has become a victim of systemic abuses in the Polish justice system, which show that the state is strong against the weak. And nothing destroys the authority of public authorities as much as straining weak muscles in inappropriate matters.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/08/08/sprawa-margot-jak-wymiar-sprawiedliwosci-ze-zwyklego-chuligana-robi-lewicowego-meczennika/ -- TRZASKOWSKI DID NOT LIVE UP TO EXPECTATIONS - MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: “A politician who received 10 million votes raises expectations that he will be a leader. Trzaskowski did not live up to these expectations. He disappeared when police violated the rights of demonstrators in the center of Warsaw.” -- THE STARTER DIDN'T RISE WELL, AND THE CAKE IS ALREADY RUINED - WOJCZUK FURTHER: “The starter hasn't risen well yet, and the cake is already ruined. Trzaskowski fell into a trap that was warned about right after the election: it is incredibly difficult to be both the mayor of a city and the leader of a social movement. Both require engagement practically 24 hours a day. Trying to reconcile these two tasks risks neither being performed as it should.” -- EVEN SCHETYNA SENSED SOCIAL EXPECTATIONS BETTER - WOJCZUK'S CONCLUSION IN GW: “Even Grzegorz Schetyna sensed social expectations better, writing on Twitter on Saturday morning: “The brutality of the police, the violation of legal procedures, blocking access to a lawyer for detainees are standards of Putin's Russia, not an EU country. This is an attempt to accustom us to living in an undemocratic country.” Trzaskowski should have used such words so as not to disappoint those who have become disillusioned with politicians but were thinking about engaging in civil society. One cannot be a leader of a civil society movement without standing at the head of citizens, without leading them, without giving an example, encouragement, and hope.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,26195089,kosztowna-nieobecnosc-trzaskowskiego-jak-chce-budowac-ruch.html -- TODAY THE ABBREVIATION HAS BECOME A SYMBOL OF IDEOLOGY, SO WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT CONCRETE THINGS - RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK AND DOMINIKA SITNICKA AT OKO.PRESS (interview conducted on August 3rd): “I don't often use the acronym LGBT, because all our research shows that people don't understand it. I thought it was the exact opposite, that it was a neutral term, with which it was easier to conduct discussions than with the words gay, lesbian. But it turns out it's the opposite. Many more people are able to understand the fight for homosexual rights than LGBT rights. That's the truth. Today, due to the propaganda of the ruling party, the LGBT acronym has become synonymous with ideology for many Poles. Citizens in many parts of Poland truly don't even know how to decipher this acronym. That's why we need to talk about concrete things – about equality for all, about what the lack of tolerance can lead to.” -- WITH HAPPENINGS AND PROVOCATIONS, WE WON'T REACH THE CONSCIOUSNESS OF VERY RELIGIOUS PEOPLE - TRZASKOWSKI FURTHER AT OKO: “With happenings and provocations, we won't reach the consciousness of very religious people. If I am to talk to people in the Polish countryside about the fact that there is no threat to the Polish family from people with different views, try to explain that diversity strengthens national identity, not weakens it, then the image of a flag on Christ can only make this conversation more difficult for me. I want to stand in the middle of the Polish road and fight for what is important to me.” -- A PERFORMER SPEAKS DIFFERENTLY THAN A MAINSTREAM POLITICIAN WHO WANTS TO REACH PEOPLE THINKING DIFFERENTLY - TRZASKOWSKI FURTHER IN CONVERSATION WITH SITNICKA AND SZCZĘŚNIAK: “However, a mainstream politician who wants to reach people thinking differently should use different instruments in a debate than a performer who wants to utter a cry of despair. Just as a party henchman, who must be tough and sharpen certain content so that they get through to the media faster, uses different instruments, and the mayor of the capital city, who aspires to be one of the opposition leaders, has different tasks. However, by my actions, I have proven that I am not afraid of difficult topics.” -- I AM A MAN OF THE CENTER WHO HAS GREAT RESPECT FOR TRADITION - TRZASKOWSKI FURTHER: “I am truly a man of the center who has great respect for tradition, I don't have a trace of a mad anti-clerical in me, even though TVP portrays me that way. We are not at war with the Church, nor at war with Polish tradition. We are able to find a way of coexistence without provoking conflicts. We also need to explain to people that the EU or modernization is not a threat to national identity. That the EU, by investing in diversity, paradoxically strengthens the sense of identity. France as a state did not fall apart when the EU began investing in the Basques, Bretons, and the preservation of language in the Pyrenees. The French or Spaniards do not have a weakened sense of national identity. And if there are certain threats to our way of life, they have nothing to do with the EU's activities, but result from globalization. And either we face them, or we don't.” -- UNBORN SONS OF COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA UNDER THE SIGN OF MOCZAR - TRZASKOWSKI FURTHER: “Today, the LGBT topic dominates because Jacek Kurski stirred emotions around it, but tomorrow there will be another anti-Semitic or anti-intellectual campaign. We know this from 1968. The greatest verbal enemies of communism are today the unborn sons of communist war propaganda under the sign of Moczara. Since I am asked today about the flag on the monument of Christ, I firmly say that I will always oppose the use of regulations on offending religious feelings in order to oppress and intimidate people fighting for equality. However, as a responsible politician, I can say that a certain kind of happening or provocation is counterproductive because it offends the sensitivities of many people. Although I don't understand how a rainbow flag can offend someone – I believe that one must be careful when touching religious symbols. However, if someone wants to harm these children, I will be the first to defend them.” https://oko.press/rafal-trzaskowski-wywiad/ -- RADICAL SLOGANS WILL NOT NECESSARILY HELP WIN THE SYMPATHY OF AVERAGE POLISH PEOPLE - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “It is not indifferent how others are defended. Radical slogans like “F*** the police” will not necessarily help win the sympathy of average Poles. They would also be unfair to officers who perform their duties honestly throughout Poland. They will rather help escalate the conflict for the radicals from Solidarna Polska. Meanwhile, it is important that the side of the minority is supported by a strong majority of tolerant Poles who do not agree with harming the weaker – because I think there are still more of us.” -- THE RULING RIGHT-WING PARTY FIRST AND FOREMOST ENJOYS REPRESSION AGAINST A PERSON CONSIDERED AN ENEMY - SAWCZUK FURTHER: “Politicians of the ruling camp have suddenly concluded that the courts are working well, because they like the decision to arrest. However, if the arrest had justification in this case, then – due to the emotions and tensions the case raises – doubts should be publicly clarified in good faith. Meanwhile, it is impossible not to notice that the ruling right-wing party first and foremost enjoys repression against a person they consider an enemy.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/08/09/sawczuk-w-poniedzialek-w-obronie-osob-lgbt/ -- RADICALIZATION IS NOT PROFITABLE FOR THE UNITED RIGHT-WING - NORBERT MALISZEWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: “So, radicalism not only proved ineffective in mobilizing Andrzej Duda's electorate, but on the contrary – it mobilized his opponents. Radicalization also did not play a mobilizing role in the PiS heartlands, because voters there were already mobilized in the first round, before the campaign rhetoric was sharpened. This shows that the diagnoses should be more insightful. If PiS is to gain the broad electorate of Duda, to be a party with the support of 10.5 million Poles, then radicalization, the image of a group gathering 10% of voters, simply does not pay off for it. Studies show that the United Right-wing gains by affirming values, and loses when the message takes on radical tones. One more piece of evidence? The result of the second round in the Konfederacja electorate – 60% for Trzaskowski, 40% for Duda, indicates that radicalization did not play its role. Moreover, some young voters of Konfederacja, after the radicalization of opinions, supported Trzaskowski, considering the focus on LGBT issues during a crisis as inappropriate. What's more, Konfederacja voters, unlike the political center of the formation, are not so clearly divided into nationalists and libertarians. These are people for whom both low taxes and conservative values are important. It will be difficult to convince them of the United Right-wing, for which social solidarity will still be an important part of the program. But we must definitely analyze why young people, from small towns and villages, from pro-PiS environments, are changing their political identification to Konfederacja.” https://www.dziennik.pl/artykuly/7795102,rekonstrukcja-rzadu-radykalizm-rzad-solidarna-polska-pis-wyborcy-prezydent-andrzej-duda.html -- ZIOBRO NEEDS MARGOT'S ARREST FOR HIS POLITICAL INTRIGUES - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN ONET: “Of course, Michał vel Małgorzata vel "Margot" should be punished – like anyone who breaks the law. The catch is that the request for arrest demanded by the prosecution – and approved by the court on the second attempt – is not treating "Margot" like everyone else. Because it is not standard practice to imprison an unconvicted person for a relatively minor offense. Moreover, "Margot" has little chance of tampering with evidence – Ziobro himself proved this by presenting a film on Saturday documenting "Margot's" attack on an anti-abortion activist. Since there is a film, how can "Margot" influence witness testimony to clear herself? And if she cannot influence witnesses, then why the arrest? The arrest is needed for another reason – because Ziobro needs it for his political intrigues.” -- SINCE THE ELECTIONS, ZIOBRO HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTING A CONSISTENT PLAN OF RADICALIZATION - STANKIEWICZ FURTHER: “Therefore, since the presidential elections, Ziobro has been implementing a consistent plan calculated to radicalize his postulates within the ruling coalition. First, Ziobro's team tried to accuse the prime minister of excessive concessions to Brussels during the recent EU budget negotiations. The aim was to introduce the so-called rule of law mechanism into the budget, i.e., making payments dependent on the assessment of compliance with the principles of a democratic state of law. Morawiecki, together with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, managed to dilute this provision, but the mechanism itself remained, which Ziobro used to attack. However, Kaczyński unequivocally sided with Morawiecki.” -- THIS IS AN UNDIGNIFIED NOVELTY - STANKIEWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “That Ziobro's Themis has political astigmatism has been known for a long time. But that it is ready to trade human fate for political games – this is an undignified novelty.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/sprawa-margot-polityczny-plan-zbigniewa-ziobry/bncnxcc,79cfc278 -- UNDER OUR FLAG, BANDITRY IS PUNISHABLE - উদযাপন KARNOWSKI DECONSTRUCTS THE LEFT'S NARRATIVE: “So something has gone wrong with the troublemakers. The slogan of these brawls should not be “you will never walk alone,” but “under our flag, banditry is punishable.” Today they want the right to attack a truck driver because they don't like his tarp, the possibility of impunity for profaning Christian faith symbols, and tomorrow they will break your shop windows, the day after tomorrow they will beat your child, in a year they will demand tribute.” -- KARNOWSKI ON DREAMS OF A BLOODY COUP: “But let us also remember that dreams of some Maidan and a bloody coup had to return to the opposition side, because they have another three years without elections. A forceful upheaval seems to be the only chance for the Third Polish Republic camp.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/512690-cos-im-sie-pomylilo-oto-prawdziwe-haslo-tych-awantur -- THE OLD GUARD OF THE OPPOSITION HAS NO IDEA; EVEN THE PANDEMIC WENT BETTER FOR THE AUTHORITIES THAN THEY DESERVED - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “All of Hołownia's or Trzaskowski's “social movements” are written on water; the old guard of the opposition has no idea for young voters, and Lewica must pull itself together and reinvent itself after Robert Biedroń's result. Even the pandemic has so far gone better for the authorities than they deserved, and the economy, compared to the rest of Europe, might not be that bad. This is a dream moment to stabilize the situation, ease tensions, co-opt some normals, or at least demobilize them. Serene calm could prevail in Warsaw, couldn't it?” -- SUTOWSKI ON THROWING MORE RELATIVES AWAY FROM THE TABLE: “The authorities' response is a dysfunctional tribal identity, which accommodates fewer and fewer groups, values, and lifestyles. It is oriented not towards managing diversity and solving problems, but towards defining the boundary between one's own and the other; throwing more relatives away from the table in reaction to the expected shrinking of resources rather than thinking about how to better gather and share them.” -- OUR PRETEND DICTATORSHIP - SUTOWSKI FURTHER: “The violence and sadism of the authorities may satisfy the fantasies of their officials and voters; they may also serve functions in the immediate political game. In the past, they often served radical social engineering. But the experience of Polish history teaches that their excess is most often a symptom of structural impotence; helplessness in the face of existential challenges. Just like fantasies about violating the unruly victim of our provincialism and our pretend dictatorship.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/sadyzm-impotentow-czyli-sprawa-margot-a-schylkowa-sanacja/ -- THE SPIN DOCTORS FROM NOWOGRODZKA DID NOT PREDICT THE REACTION OF THE YOUNGEST VOTERS - ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI IN POLITYKA: “The spin doctors from Nowogrodzka, who came up with the LGBT issue as one of the main themes of the campaign, are probably pleased with the political results. But there are also consequences they probably did not foresee. Young people have been politically inactive in recent years: they voted less often than other generations, did not participate in opposition demonstrations, and did not engage in party politics. The polarization that governs Polish politics – between PiS and anti-PiS – must have left them quite indifferent, because the turnout among the youngest generation of voters was the lowest, and the votes were most dispersed among various parties or candidates.” -- FOR YOUNG PEOPLE, IT'S PART OF PERSONAL FREEDOM - LIPIŃSKI FURTHER: “That something has changed was shown by the recent presidential election. Firstly, voters aged 18-29 caught up with other age groups in terms of turnout; secondly, in the second round, they supported the opposition candidate in almost two-thirds. This is not a coincidence with the anti-LGBT campaign. Young people treat sexual freedom as an important part of their personal freedom, and many of them are simply following their heart – in defense of a minority persecuted by the authorities. In addition, other issues important to the young generation appeared in the campaign: the climate catastrophe and social inequalities.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1966816,1,dlaczego-bijecie-dzieci-zle-sie-to-dla-was-skonczy.read -- WE ARE CONDUCTING NATIONAL POLICY LIKE OTHER SERIOUS COUNTRIES - GERMANY OR FRANCE, BUT FOR GOD'S SAKE, NOT NATIONALISTIC OR CHAUVINISTIC - PIOTR GLIŃSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Every day I fear it (although I know they also have Polish culture in their hearts), but I cannot stop acting because of it. We have to catch up. We are conducting national policy (but – for God's sake! – not nationalistic or chauvinistic) like other serious countries – Germany or France – which spend large sums on the broad promotion of the state and its culture internally and abroad. Such actions must be taken to cultivate awareness and community. Museum policy has been and is being implemented in all wise countries. And in Poland, there are still far fewer museums per 100,000 inhabitants than the European average.” -- I DIDN'T HEAR COMPLAINTS WHEN THE PREVIOUS TEAM'S PROJECT WAS DELAYED BY FOUR YEARS, AND NOT BY ONE YEAR AS IN OSSOWE - GLIŃSKI ON THE QUESTION FROM SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ABOUT DELAYS IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE MUSEUM OF THE BATTLE OF WARSAW: “Exactly, although I did not hear media complaints that the project of the previous team was delayed by four years, and not by one year as in Ossow! We are currently building, above all, the Museum of Polish History, which the previous team did not build, even though it was formally established in 2006. Why was this most important Polish museum not built, even though at the same time half a billion zlotys was found for another museum in the hometown of the then prime minister? This is a question that illustrates the significant difference between the current policy of Polish memory and what the previous team represented from this point of view.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzad-PiS/308099959-Glinski-Pamiec-jest-wazna-dla-wspolnoty.html -- PIS WILL ENSURE EQUALITY - TITLE IN RZ: “Anna Schmidt-Rodziewicz says that the content will be known in the autumn. – The text will soon be sent for intra- and inter-resort and social consultations – she notes. What will it contain? – Women's rights are our priority: protection against violence, leveling the playing field in the workplace in terms of pay and positions, facilitating the functioning of mothers in the workplace according to the principle of work-life balance. Improving access to goods and services for people with disabilities is also important – lists the minister for equality.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzad-PiS/308099950-PiS-zadba-o-rownosc-Priorytetem-maja-byc-prawa-kobiet.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Wyszkowski, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Jan Cienski.

Łukasz Mężyk