state of play: 07/17/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Interia on Morawiecki's Behind-the-Scenes Role, Pacewicz on the Memory of Economic Deprivation for Large Social Groups, Major on the Ghettoization of PiS Voters by Elites, Bodziony: Ritualistic Post-Election Declarations by Platform Follower

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE PRIME MINISTER ON DISAGREEMENT WITH ARBITRARY RULE OF LAW PROVISIONS, MASTALEREK ON PRIEST KOHELET: EVERYTHING HAS ITS TIME, DWORCZYK ON RISING SUPPORT FOR BOTH PAD AND PMM, GOWIN ON RETURNING TO GOVERNMENT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/07/17/ -- ON THE PRIME MINISTER'S BEHIND-THE-SCENES INVOLVEMENT IN ANDRZEJ DUDA'S RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN - JAKUB SZCZEPAŃSKI IN INTERIA: “No offense, but not everyone needs to be informed about all meetings. It’s clear that President Kaczyński wanted the President to remain President. There's nothing beyond that we helped Andrzej Duda,” a close associate of Mateusz Morawiecki tells Interia. “The Prime Minister played a big role because he stripped the opponent of credibility. We managed to demonstrate incompetence, both internationally and in managing Warsaw. The President didn't have to take that upon himself,” he emphasizes. -- ON MASTALEREK'S ROLE - SZCZEPAŃSKI CONTINUES: “The fact that PiS headquarters didn't know about everything happening in Andrzej Duda's campaign team might be indicated by Marcin Massttalerek's presence. Sources from the Presidential Palace confirm to Interia that although he was not formally on the campaign team, he conceived of, for instance, the "coalition of Polish matters," which the President mentioned in Jastrzębie-Zdrój. Interestingly, most PiS-affiliated campaign staff were unaware of this.” https://fakty.interia.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-prezydenckie-2020/aktualnosci/news-tajna-wspolpraca-prezydenta-i-premiera-nocne-spotkania-daly-,nId,4614835 -- “I SEE NO POLITICIAN WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PERSUASION REGARDING POLISH AFFAIRS IN THE EU” - JAROSŁAW GOWIN IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The key challenges for the Polish state are negotiations in the debate on the future of Europe. In these negotiations, I see no politician with greater potential for effective persuasion than Mateusz Morawiecki. Would you like to return to government? First, programmatic decisions, and only then personnel moves tailored to them. Today, speculation about the future government is premature.” -- “THE NEW COURSE MUST INCLUDE OPENING UP TO THE OTHER HALF OF SOCIETY” - GOWIN CONTINUES: “The new course on the side of the ruling camp must include an opening to the other half of society, especially the youth, who no longer think in terms of a political duopoly and did not support our candidate. President Duda’s statements on election night prove that we are deeply aware of how divided we have become during this campaign, but we also have the will to counteract the division. This is not a simple matter.” -- “UNNECESSARY WORDS WERE SPOKEN, LET US LEARN FROM WHAT AGATA DUDA SAID” - GOWIN CONTINUES: “Certainly, all of us, on both sides of the barricade, made many mistakes, and unnecessary words were spoken. We have an opportunity to translate the quantitative success of democracy, which was high voter turnout, into a qualitative success, i.e., to raise the culture of political discourse. And to learn what Mrs. Agata Kornhauser-Duda said during the campaign, namely mutual respect, as well as respect from the majority for the views and sensitivities of the minority, regardless of whether that minority constitutes 10 percent or 49.” -- “THE NEW OPENING MUST BE AIMED AT THE YOUTH” - GOWIN CONTINUES: “The election results do not entitle us to triumphalism. This is, of course, a great success, but we won by a narrow margin, and the structure of the electorates shows that time favors the opposition. Therefore, this new opening from the United Right must also be a programmatic opening aimed at the youth, entrepreneurs, local government officials, in short, the middle class.” -- GOWIN ON THE COALITION OF POLISH MATTERS - CONTINUES IN RZ: “I hope that the President will continue the initiative he called the coalition of Polish matters. It is the office of the President that has the greatest potential to begin the work of bridging the too deep divisions.” https://www.rp.pl/Porozumienie/307169921-Jaroslaw-Gowin-Potrzebujemy-nowego-otwarcia.html -- “PIS PRECISIONY USED TOOLS IN THE CAMPAIGN” - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The presidential elections compel a revision of several dogmas prevalent among Polish political commentators. One of them was the issue of voter turnout. Many analysts argued that the PiS candidate could not win elections with a turnout above a certain percentage. It turned out that even with record-high turnout, nearly 70 percent, Andrzej Duda was able to win. The essence, however, is to precisely identify voter groups and mobilize them. Just before the elections, I spoke with a PiS campaign strategist who claimed that the latest analysis conducted by the party's analytical team indicated that Duda could count on a lead of about 460,000 votes. The lead was 422,000, but this shows how precise the tools used by strategists are. Elections are no longer won with classic political science tools talking about the right, left, conservatives, or liberals, but by meticulously analyzing voter groups, diagnosing their problems, fears, and hopes, and tailoring the political message accordingly.” -- SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON EFFECTIVE TARGETING ON THE INTERNET: “Elections are no longer won with classic political science tools talking about the right, left, conservatives, or liberals, but by meticulously analyzing voter groups, diagnosing their problems, fears, and hopes, and tailoring the political message accordingly. Also based on so-called microtargeting, i.e., directing messages to specific age groups, geographical areas, etc., using the precise tools provided by Google's, Facebook's, or smartphone advertising brokers' advertising systems.” -- “I MADE A MISTAKE IN ASSESSING DUDA'S CAMPAIGN” - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ADMITS: “It's not about dwelling on whether modern politics is a fair game based on rational arguments. The fact is, it's effective. I admit that I myself made a serious mistake in assessing Duda's campaign. I thought that it was disadvantageous for the president to get too close to PiS. (...) Research, however, indicated that a large group of non-PiS voters feared chaos after the opposition candidate's victory. By repeating that if Duda lost, there would be a civil war and social programs would be eliminated, PiS further cemented the president with the ruling camp and further mobilized supporters. In addition, they assumed that since the prime minister and president enjoy very high trust, and Poles consider that they are living well, given the growing sense of influence of ordinary citizens on matters in the country, elections could be turned into a plebiscite: are you living better than five years ago and want to defend the status quo, or do you prefer to choose a leap into the unknown? And the ruling camp managed to win this plebiscite.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/307169898-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Prezydent-istnieje-tylko-z-rzadem.html -- “A GENERATION HAS GAINED FORMATIVE EXPERIENCE IN THE STRUGGLE FOR POWER” - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI ON ONET: “The generation of 40-50 year olds has just gained its first fully independent, hence formative, experience in the struggle for power. If they can overcome this defeat, sustained in specific circumstances, they will grow stronger. Defeats, not successes, have shaped the two most capable political generations in Poland: in 1989, the later SLD, and the Platforma's double election losses in 2005. This is how Kwaśniewski and Tusk grew. This defeat is an opportunity for successors.” -- SIERAKOWSKI ON THE PLATFORM'S SHIELD PROBLEM: “For now, the Platforma needs the others in the opposition, because it is currently unable to win elections and must rely on the votes of those who dislike it, and even cannot stand it. There was no shortage of citizens who, solely because of that label, did not vote for Trzaskowski.” -- “WHAT DOES THE TRANSFORMATION OF PO MEAN?” - SIERAKOWSKI CONTINUES: “But what does the transformation of PO mean? A social movement around PO? A change of label? Inclusion of local government officials? Cross-party agreement? All of this has been done: from PO came the Civic Coalition, and later the cross-party European Coalition, and finally local government officials were included for the parliamentary elections. Of course, it can probably be done better, but some new, better KO will still be PO for people. Local government officials cannot enter into a coalition with PO, because they are not a party and must focus on governance. Cross-party agreement is difficult to imagine if other party leaders were unable to get involved after the first round to defeat Andrzej Duda together. A social movement is very difficult to make into more than a slogan, and it is usually a very fleeting phenomenon. These are neither new ideas nor ideas for three years in opposition to authoritarian rule.” -- SIERAKOWSKI ON THE INSTITUTIONAL BACKING THAT PIS HAS: “The solution could be to build an institutional backing similar to the one PiS has. Such slogans have been voiced before, but nothing more has ever happened. PO cannot create institutions independent of PO. Even more so in a situation where "nobody likes PO." Either they emerge on their own and want to cooperate, or they don't emerge. This is a very serious challenge, going beyond gathering the enthusiasm generated during the campaign, which must dissipate back into private lives, as there is no energy for it.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/opinie/wybory-prezydenckie-2020-jak-trzaskowski-pogodzi-sukces-i-porazke-opinia/xp1s1yp -- “MAJOR GALLOPS ON THE GHETTOIZATION OF PIS VOTERS BY ELITES” - writes in Krytyka Polityczna: “Perhaps it is worth returning to proven patterns and carving out in each city a small section of a district or even an entire district where these people, who voted for Duda, would have to live. There is even a nice Italian name for such a demarcated area, and Trzaskowski's voters like foreign languages, after all. And they command them. The worst thing is that they, these Duda voters, might still be able to leave these districts. And even in their own cars, if, of course, they manage to steal them from Wilanów voters beforehand. It will be difficult to check whether a given courier, bartender, teacher, shop assistant, bus driver voted for Duda. So, we must again resort to historical patterns. For this purpose, it is best to sew armbands in the form of some figure from the masks that are now scattered on the streets. For example, a star. And to force these armbands to be worn on the arm by those Duda voters who do not understand democracy and are walking examples of intolerance.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/antypisowski-internet-oglosil-bojkot-podkarpacia/ -- “RITUALISTIC POST-ELECTION DECLARATIONS BY PLATFORM FOLLOWERS ARE CAUSING INCREASING IRRITATION” - JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “So, increasing weariness and irritation are being caused by the ritualistic post-election declarations of Platforma followers concerning their intention to leave the country, demanding the secession of Podkarpacie from Poland, or appealing not to buy products from Polish farmers. All supporters of PiS are contemptuously referred to by them as those who, according to Dorota Masłowska, "stink of vodka and sausage," or are "human biomass inhabiting the western territories of Asia," as Jakub Wątły, founder of Halo Radio, saw fit to state. It is difficult to comment on these absurd statements, coming from people who aspire to the role of moral arbiters. There is no point in falling into false philopaganism – if, however, we agree with Bartosz Arłukowicz, who stated after the elections that "our path leads to the Polish countryside," then it would be useful to change our attitude, and also... to visit the countryside more often. It is difficult to expect good results outside of cities if PO politicians are almost absent in the countryside during the campaign.” -- “PLATFORMA HAS ANNOUNCED A LIFTING SEVERAL TIMES ALREADY” - BODZIONY CONTINUES: “Will these changes, however, be deep and credible enough? The Platforma has announced a lifting several times already, most recently when Budka became its leader. For things to be different this time, it would be necessary to remove the old guard, and that is not in their interest. Since taking leadership, Budka has not significantly reformed the party, which raises doubts about his ability to bring about real change.” -- “IS TRZASKOWSKI A MENTAL PRISONER OF HIS FORMATION?” - BODZIONY'S CONCLUSION: “Trzaskowski himself fares very well against the backdrop of his milieu. But does he rise above it? And is he willing to take risks? The key question remains whether he himself is more of a "Platforma man," a mental prisoner of his political formation to date, which has shown little promise for many years, or whether he is capable of breaking away from the party roots from which his career grew. Until now, the Platforma has meant steps in his political career for him, but it may now become an obstacle on the path to development. Trzaskowski must ask himself whether he wants to overcome this obstacle and how it can be done.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/07/17/rafal-trzaskowski-platforma-obywatelska/ -- “THE OPPOSITION HAS FALLEN OUT” - ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN GAZETA.PL “Nothing unites like victory, and nothing divides like defeat. Living proof of the truth of these words is the Polish opposition, which immediately after the announcement of the presidential election results, (again) fell out amongst themselves. (...) The most important thing in this tragicomic spectacle is that the entire opposition is cruelly losing out. Every party. Except that none of them see it, understand it, or are textbook-ishly denying it. They all live in the deluded, albeit comfortable, conviction that 'my truth is more true than yours.' Meanwhile, the scale of the mistakes and the resulting various losses is enormous.” -- “MEDIA ACOLYTES OF THE PLATFORMA COMPLETELY DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS” - ROGOJSZ CONTINUES: “Within the Platforma—and here I mean politicians, as well as voters/sympathizers and media acolytes—they completely fail to grasp this. There is a conviction that since our person received 10 million votes, it gives us the right to boss around the entire opposition company and treat PiS voters and Andrzej Duda's supporters with contempt. Nothing could be further from the truth. Trzaskowski received 10 million votes because he did a lot to go beyond rigid party lines. Especially to free himself from the label of the Platforma itself, which was his biggest burden in this campaign.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,26132132,zapasy-w-blocie-opozycja-wlasnie-topi-wyborczy-kapital-trzaskowskiego.html -- “FOR THIRTY-YEAR-OLDS, 5 YEARS OF DUDA'S PRESIDENCY IS ONE-TWELFTH OF THEIR LIFE” - PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO: “I realize the difference when I talk to colleagues in the newsroom. For them, mostly thirty-year-olds, 5 years of Duda's presidency is one-twelfth of the life they have left, the end of which is so far away that it's invisible. For me, it's one-third, and if all goes well (hopefully not too well!), a little more.” -- “WE DO WHAT KACZYŃSKI DOES, ONLY THE OTHER WAY AROUND, WHEN HALF OF POLAND STOPS INTERESTING US” - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “It has a second flaw: it stops reflection. We no longer have to ask why they vote for Duda, because the other half of Poland ceases to interest us. In a sense, we are doing the same thing as Kaczyński, but in reverse. In his letter to PiS members, Kaczyński strips the opposition of its Polishness: 'an anti-democratic, anti-state, anti-constitutional, and essentially external force... they want to overthrow the government with the help of the 'street and foreigners,' i.e., by force and with foreign interference... they cast shameful and baseless accusations on our Nation.' Instead of going against Kaczyński à rebours, we need to understand as quickly as possible and at least weaken the sources of class divisions. Because they can finish us off completely.” -- “BEHIND THE CONVICTIONS OF DUDA'S VOTERS LIES THE REAL EXPERIENCE OF POVERTY REDUCTION” - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “Duda's voters most often cited social fear: 'so that the living conditions of people like me don't worsen.' Such concerns are often ridiculed by 'ours' as a result of the 500 plus bribe. Meanwhile, real experience lies behind it. In Poland, since PiS took power in 2015: extreme poverty fell from 6.5% to 4.2% (2019), relative poverty from 15.5% to 13% (2019), the minimum wage increased from PLN 1750 to PLN 2600 (2020), registered unemployment fell from 9.7% to 5.5% (in 2020, just before the pandemic outbreak; today it exceeds 6%), the real income of the poorest 20% of the population increased by as much as 48% between 2015 and 2019.” -- PACEWICZ ON THE MEMORY OF ECONOMIC DEPRIVATION OF THE PROVINCE: “All this happened after the PO-PSL governments, which had many successes, quelled the 2008 crisis, and avoided recession. They left behind major investments, 'schetynówki' and 'orliki,' but also the memory of economic deprivation for large social groups, especially in the countryside and in small towns.” -- “ONLY PIGS SIT IN WIADOMOŚCI” - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “The cynical creators of mass sick imagination, with Jacek Kurski and his obedient group of 'TVP journalists,' who are not idiots, deserve moral condemnation. Surely, the TVP ethics committee, where Holecka, Ziemiec, or Nowina-Konopka (author of many articles in the style of March 1968) sit, will not issue it. Only pigs sit in 'Wiadomości' – I don't hesitate to say so. PiS has earned the genuine gratitude of millions of voters, but Jacek Kurski has added a group of intoxicated minds to this. If it weren't for TVP Duda, he wouldn't have won these elections.” -- “THE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO IS TRZASKOWSKI GETTING STUCK IN PLATFORMA” - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “The pessimistic scenario is Trzaskowski getting stuck in the Platforma's mass, structures, and habits. Budka's party (until recently Schetyna's) showed considerable energy in the elections, it can play political games, but it doesn't inspire with a vision, program, or activism. Too many well-fed cats, too little hunger for success. And on top of that, the Left, offended at the world, not to mention Kosiniak-Kamysz. And Hołownia, who will be nibbling at everyone.” https://oko.press/10-milionow-naszych-glosow-jesli-opozycja-to-zmarnuje-wtedy-naprawde-trafi-mnie-szlag/ -- “PLATFORMA AND ITS AUTHORITIES ARE NOT THE FIRST TIME DETACHED FROM REALITY” - MAREK DUTKIEWICZ IN GW: “The Civic Platform and the authorities supporting it have not been detached from reality for the first time. If this side of the political scene conducts any research at all, they clearly do not understand its results or treat them selectively and in accordance with their immediate interest. Yes, indeed, party interest.” -- “COMMENTATORS SUPPORTING THE PLATFORMA LACK SOCIAL LISTENING SKILLS” - DUTKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “The Platforma and the commentators supporting it also lack social listening skills. The side of the civic opposition is diverse. It is democratic. And this is precisely its potential strength. The expectation that we will turn into a unified army in the style of PiS is as unrealistic as it is dangerous. We don't want to be like PiS; we want to beat them on our own terms. This requires wisdom, determination, openness to others, simple conversation, not party games.” -- DUTKIEWICZ ON INSULTING HOŁOWNIA'S VOTERS: “Partially, these are the same voters who first endured insults and hate speech online from Trzaskowski's voters, and after the second round suddenly became the object of solicitations and pleas for help. Such behavior: first let's allow future allies to be insulted, and then ask them to forget about it, is truly difficult to consider a thought-out and accurate strategy for the Platforma. And yet, as if against all odds, the majority of Hołownia's voters forgot, gritted their teeth, and voted for Trzaskowski in the second round in the name of raison d'état. And now, they still hear that Duda's victory is their fault.” -- “IT IS YOU, PLATFORMA, WHO ARE TO BLAME FOR THE OPPOSITION'S DEFEATS” - DUTKIEWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “Therefore, as a long-time, but currently former, voter of the Civic Platform, I sincerely ask: Platforma, reflect upon yourself and change. If necessary again, I will vote for you as a matter of raison d'état and higher necessity – not because I like you. But many will not do so. Do not cling to these 10 million votes – a large part of them are not your voters. And Rafał Trzaskowski is not their leader, but a simple construct of 'anyone but Duda.' Do not be deluded by commentators that others are to blame. It is you, Civic Platform, who are to blame for the opposition's defeats. And if you do not change, if you do not make room for others, then we – the side in opposition to the current government – will continue to lose elections.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26133082,to-nie-inni-sa-winni-tylko-ty-platformo.html -- “POLITICAL FICTION BY PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI ABOUT THE FORMATION OF HOŁOWNIA, BODNAR, AND DZIEMIANOWICZ-BĄK: “This is how the story of the 'Movement of Three Flags' begins, which in 2023, under the leadership of three figures – Szymon Hołownia, Adam Bodnar, and Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk – wins parliamentary elections against PiS. Together with a minority coalition partner, the European People's Party, composed of former politicians from Platforma and PSL, the new government coalition gains a majority in the Sejm, allowing for the rejection of a presidential veto.” -- WITHIN THE SAME POLITICAL FICTION, TRUDNOWSKI ON ŚPIEWAK AS RPO: “When the name of the candidate emerges, a real bombshell explodes. It turns out to be Jan Śpiewak, a well-known left-wing urban activist, recognized for his uncompromising fight for tenants' rights in Warsaw. Only MPs from Konfederacja and Solidarna Polska are against him. Mateusz Morawiecki persuades MPs to vote for Śpiewak in the Sejm, emphasizing his merits in the fight for justice in Warsaw. The majority of MPs from the United Right, PSL, and the Left vote 'for.' Formally, the Civic Coalition abstains, and Roman Giertych becomes the main opponent of this candidacy. Ultimately, however, a group of a dozen or so young MPs – including representatives of the Greens and politicians tipped to be members of Szymon Hołownia's future club – vote for Śpiewak.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/07/16/pis-przegrywa-z-holownia-bodnarem-i-dziemianowicz-bak-vs-andrzej-duda-konczy-toksyczny-duopol/ -- PHOTO: RENE MAGRITTE, THE TREACHERY OF IMAGES Known as the "author of words and things," he liked to change the names of objects, as exemplified by his painting "The Treachery of Images." His paintings shocked and caused controversy; they are distinguished by their poetic mood and precise drawing. The artist, who depicted a uniformed world, reflected in successive reproductions, unintentionally influenced art in the second half of the 20th century, primarily pop art. -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Tym, Anna Bikont, Marian Cycoń, Tadeusz Pokrywka.

Łukasz Mężyk