state of play: 07/06/2020

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Hołownia: PiS Does Much Harm. PO Cannot Do Good, Żakowski Ironically About Hołownia: It's Not a Choice Between 'Mam Talent' and 'Jaka to Melodia,' Czarzasty: We Will Not Be Ashamed of Robert, We Will Never Apologize for Robert Like We

Łukasz Mężyk

-- GOWIN ON THE FACT THAT IF THE ELECTIONS WERE HELD IN MAY, WE WOULD ALREADY BE AFTER THEIR ANNULMENT, TRZASKOWSKI RETURNS TO THE DEBATE OF THREE TELEVISIONS, THE PRESIDENT SIGNED THE MOTION FOR A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/07/06/ -- JACEK ŻAKOWSKI CONDEMNS SZYMON HOŁOWNIA AND IS IRONIC: IF IT WERE A CHOICE BETWEEN 'MAM TALENT' AND 'JAKA TO MELODIA,' I WOULD RESPECT SUCH A POSTURE - he writes in WP: “Szymon Hołownia says he will put a cross next to Trzaskowski, but leaves his voters free to choose because he respects their subjectivity. Respect for the subjectivity of others is worthy of the highest praise. If it were a choice between coffee and tea, or between 'Mam talent' and 'Jaka to melodia,' and even between Hołownia and Trzaskowski, I would respect such a stance. But politics is about leadership. A recent presidential candidate who cannot tell his voters whether to go East or West, towards authoritarianism or democracy, is as much a leader as I am a giraffe or a prima ballerina. Now, when we have a simple and clear choice between democracy and authoritarianism, Hołownia declares symmetrical respect for both choices.” -- THE OPPOSITION IS STILL RULED BY THE LOGIC OF PARTY INTERESTS - ŻAKOWSKI CONTINUES: “And because the opposition is still ruled by the logic of party interests and petty interests, even victory in the second round remains uncertain. And it becomes even more uncertain when the leaders of opposition parties panic about drawing concrete conclusions from what they themselves have said about the destruction of Poland by the PiS government. If Duda remains in the Presidential Palace for another 5 years, it will be a shared 'success' of the entire opposition, apart from The Left, which immediately supported Trzaskowski. Although not the kind of success that Bosak, Budka, Hołownia, and Kosiniak-Kamysz would have wished for.” https://magazyn.wp.pl/opinie/artykul/opozycjo-to-nie-czas-na-kalkulowanie-opinia -- I DON'T SO MUCH WANT PRESIDENT TRZASKOWSKI AS I DON'T WANT PRESIDENT Duda - SZYMON HOŁOWNIA IN CONVERSATION WITH KRZYSZTOF SKÓRZYŃSKI AND ARLETA ZALEWSKA ON TVN24: “No. I said who I would personally vote for. Or rather, against whom, because Trzaskowski is still not my candidate. I don't so much want him to be president as I don't want Duda to remain president.” -- ROMAN AND I LIVE NEAR EACH OTHER - HOŁOWNIA ON GERTYCH'S PRESENCE AT THE ELECTION NIGHT EVENT: “He was there. Roman and I live near each other, we respect each other, we have talked many times about politics, but also, for example, about the Holy Trinity and the philosophy of time. I really like his commentary published on Facebook and Twitter, his sense of irony. I didn't personally invite him to the election night, but I was glad he came.” -- I KNOW HOW TOXIC THE PLATFORM BRAND IS FOR MILLIONS OF POLES - HOŁOWNIA CONTINUES: “He would have to radically distance himself from the Platform. I have nothing against Trzaskowski himself, he might be a perfectly nice guy. But I have traveled around Poland long and intensely enough to know how toxic the PO brand is today for vast numbers of Poles. Many people will not vote for anyone put forward by this party (our negative electorate research showed this, I had 3 percent in it, Trzaskowski - 22 percent). More than that: they will vote for someone who is anti-PO. Whoever it may be. Just 'to spite' the Platform. This mechanism works the other way too: many people will vote for anyone who is not from PiS. This is essentially the short story of how we, as a nation, have been cornered. Program? Who cares? The candidates didn't even pretend to be concerned with it. 'I am anti-PO,' 'I am anti-PiS.' Not an idea for the real problems of real people trying to recover from the coronavirus crisis today. Not quality - just the brand.” -- PiS DOES A LOT OF HARM, PLATFORM CANNOT DO GOOD - HOŁOWNIA CONTINUES: “Of course not! The PO-PiS kolubrina, overshadowing the entire horizon, has meant that for so many years I have gone to the 'celebration of democracy' out of obligation, not with passion, with hope, with joy that we will do great things, but solely to save the country from the lesser evil. Again, not an election, but a plebiscite. PiS does a lot of harm. PO cannot do good. Moreover, the Platform is the world champion in privatizing successes and nationalizing failures. If they win - PO wins. If they lose or drag us into risk, it's a national matter, let's defend the most sacred values, it's not about the Platform, but about Poland... I know this song as well as a bad penny.” -- HOŁOWNIA CONFIRMS SEJM LIST AND ANOTHER PRESIDENTIAL BID: “Will you run in the Sejm elections in three years? Yes. And will you be a candidate for prime minister? I believe my vision for the presidency is needed, consistent, and sensible. And that's what I want to stick to. So, will you run in the elections in five years? Yes.” https://tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/holownia-do-ostatniej-chwili-wierzylem-ze-bede-w-drugiej-turze-rece-mi-opadaja,278,4874 -- THE OPTIMISM OF TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS IS CHARACTERISTIC OF ALL OPPOSITION CAMPAIGNS, WHICH, JUST BEFORE DEFEAT, FALL INTO GOOD HUMOR, IS A MORTAL SPIRAL OF ESTABLISHMENT SUPPORT - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Here arises the question of whether one can win the presidency without winning even a single important confrontation? Can one win these very important elections solely through disguise, denial of one's own views, relying on the support of sympathetic media, and mocking difficult questions? Trzaskowski's decision to forgo the trip to Końskie indirectly proves that there is a mood of optimism in his campaign headquarters. This is, by the way, a characteristic trait of all opposition campaigns, which, just before defeat, fall into good humor. The mortal spiral of establishment support, the friendliness of many analysts and pollsters, and minor successes in mudslinging against the rival create a deadly bubble.” -- IF TRZASKOWSKI WANTED A BREAKTHROUGH, HE SHOULD HAVE GONE TO THE DEBATE - JACEK KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “By refusing to go to Końskie, Trzaskowski did Andrzej Duda a favor. Indirectly, he proved that he is incapable of taking on real challenges. And please do not draw analogies with the current president: he did participate in the debate before the first round, unlike Bronisław Komorowski. He always approaches people with different opinions. And he doesn't need to go to TVN to win. Whereas Trzaskowski - if he wanted a breakthrough - should have gone. He chose guarantees of safety, which never change anything.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/507821-trzaskowski-udowodnil-ze-nie-jest-zdolny-do-podjecia-ryzyka -- TOMASZ SAWCZUK ON HOW TRZASKOWSKI CHANGED HIS RHETORIC FROM SOLIDARITY TO FREE MARKET FOR BOSAK'S VOTERS - he writes in Kultura Liberalna: “Polls indicate only microscopic shifts between the electorates of PiS and PO. Therefore, before the first round of voting, Trzaskowski attempted to demobilize some of the ruling party's voters. Judging by the voting results, this attempt was unsuccessful. Perhaps that is why, in recent days, Rafał Trzaskowski no longer emphasizes the slogan 'New Solidarity' promoted in the first part of the campaign. This slogan might have previously served as a signal that opposition voters should re-unite around a common candidate after a period of disarray related to Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska's withdrawal from the campaign. However, it seems to have primarily aimed at reassuring some of Andrzej Duda's voters. It was intended to assure them that no revolution would occur in the country, and that the social programs introduced by PiS would be continued – that if Trzaskowski won the election, nothing bad would happen, meaning they could stay home on election day. PiS voters did not stay home, and Trzaskowski has already consolidated his camp, which would explain why we hear less about 'new solidarity' now.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/07/06/sawczuk-trzaskowski-musi-walczyc-o-kazdy-glos/ -- MORAWIECKI'S PATRIOTIC FUND IS AN INCREASINGLY WIDE SMILE FROM PiS TO BOSAK'S VOTERS - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO: “In the final phase of the campaign, Mateusz Morawiecki promised to establish a Patriotic Fund for 'building patriotic attitudes.' The money is to go to re-enactors, patriotic associations, and scientists. PiS is smiling more and more broadly at Krzysztof Bosak's voters.” https://oko.press/morawiecki-obiecuje-pieniadze-na-rekonstrukcje-historyczne/ -- PiS HAS TAPPED INTO THE EMOTIONS OF THOSE OVERLOOKED BY URBAN ELITES - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI IN KLUB JAGIELLOŃSKI: “'Why are electoral promises and programs not the most important thing? Because we know very well that politics is not a rational calculation of one's own interest, but the art of managing emotions, aspirations, values, and cultural disputes. It is evident that Law and Justice has excelled in this. They understood that before 2015, there were many people in Poland who felt a deficit of dignity, were overlooked by urban elites, and disrespected by the political class. PiS has harnessed these emotions, and benefits like 500+ were merely symbolic confirmation that the ruling party cares about the dignity of all citizens and is credible in fulfilling its promises,' notes the president of the Jagiellonian Club.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/07/04/duda-czy-trzaskowski-co-rozstrzygnie-wybory-prezydenckie-video/ -- IN A REPORT BY GAZETA.PL ABOUT HOW KONSKIE ENDED UP IN THE POLITICAL ARENA - AN INTERESTING ANECDOTE ABOUT A LOCAL OFFICIAL FROM KONSKIE MEETING SCHETYNA - as Daniel Drob writes: “TVP, by choosing Końskie for the debate, recalled the words spoken in 2015 by Grzegorz Schetyna. 'Elections are not won in Wilanów, but in Końskie,' said the then leader of PO. - I don't know if for this bon mot I shouldn't apply for Grzegorz Schetyna to be granted honorary citizenship of Końskie. It spread, and, perhaps it's an overstatement, but I also feel somewhat responsible for it - says the local official. Obratański recalls a conversation with Schetyna when he was Foreign Minister. - In 2015, Grzegorz Schetyna became the leader of the Civic Platform list in the Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship. He planned a tour in his electoral district, and I received a question from his secretariat asking if I would have time for a conversation with Mr. Schetyna. Of course, I agreed. He was in my office, we talked a bit about local government problems, and jointly laid a wreath at the monument of Major Hubal. He probably left with the impression that it's a nice, cool town with friendly people. That's probably why it stuck with him. - Later, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz maliciously remarked that elections are won in Końskie, not Washington, which flatters me even more - he adds.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,143907,26100382,z-wizyta-w-konskich-trzaskowski-ja-sie-go-boje-o-pis-strasznie.html -- WE WILL NOT APOLOGIZE FOR ROBERT, WE ARE ASHAMED OF MS. OGÓREK TO THIS DAY - WŁODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY IN AN ARTICLE FOR KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “On one matter, I must admit, I am astonished. Astonished by the voices comparing Robert Biedroń and Magdalena Ogórek. Regardless of the percentage results, this is very harmful to both The Left and Robert. Abstracting from his life and political path, Robert is a man who was a Member of Parliament, is a Member of the European Parliament, was the mayor of Słupsk, and for over a dozen years has been and remains an activist for the rights of minorities, including LGBT people. He has his own history. He has very precise both his biography and his views. He is a man of The Left. He is a very valuable person. Therefore, it is very dishonest to compare these two figures. But to those who do compare them, I will say this: have some reflection. We will not be ashamed of Robert, and we are not ashamed; we will never apologize for Robert. Because when it comes to values, to left-wing principles, he is the same kind of person as us. I do not expect Robert to change his views and start working in one medium or the other. We have apologized for Ms. Ogórek and are ashamed to this day.” -- THE LEFT CONGRESS IN THE FALL - CZARZASTY CONTINUES: “In the fall, we will convene the Congress of The Left, which will show what the world and Poland look like after the pandemic. During the pandemic, people with the least economic security felt its effects the most. We want to analyze and show what to do to prevent this from happening again. We will have a discussion about the left-wing vision of the state – a state that does not interfere in citizens' lives but helps them when needed. In the fall, a unification congress of SLD and Wiosna will also take place. The pandemic, for formal reasons, shifted our political calendar. This is still important to us because much unites us. Above all, we have a common vision of Poland.” -- BIEDROŃ HAS SHIFTED THE BOUNDARIES OF POLITICAL DISCOURSE IN POLAND - CZARZASTY CONTINUES: “Biedroń demonstrates a system of values and shifts the boundaries of political discourse in Poland. No one in Poland will be surprised anymore that a gay man was a presidential candidate. No one in Poland will be surprised anymore that draft laws concerning marital equality were submitted during this campaign. No one will be surprised anymore that The Left is not just about social issues, but also about issues related to the system of values, adherence to the Constitution, and the rule of law. And we have this thanks to him, and for that, I thank him.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/biedron-wybory-prezydenckie-2020-wlodzimierz-czarzasty/ -- TRZASKOWSKI HAS LEARNED HIS LESSONS FROM TOLSTOY, HE HAS ALREADY WON - AGATON KOZIŃSKI IN WP: "There are no stronger forces than these two warriors: patience and time," wrote Leo Tolstoy. It seems that Rafał Trzaskowski had a strong fascination with 'War and Peace' in his youth, because his entire adult life looks as if he were practically testing the golden thoughts found within it. Moreover, his career confirms that patience really pays off. It was patience that allowed him to reach the second round of the presidential elections. And it ensures that in subsequent election cycles, he will be at the center of events. Regardless of whether he takes first or second place next Sunday.” -- KOZIŃSKI ON HOW POLLS UNDERESTIMATED Duda's SUPPORT: “Polls before the first round generally showed electoral trends quite well, and the exit poll accurately reflected the electoral preferences of Poles. However, the polling agencies did not take sufficient care of one detail. All of them collectively underestimated Duda's ratings. Compared to the exit poll, he gained 2 percentage points more. He also consistently had 2-3 percentage points less in polls than he ultimately recorded in the elections. If he can count on this peculiar 'bonus' resulting from the underestimation of his support now, then Duda is still ahead of Trzaskowski. Although he is ahead by a hair. And this means that a week before the election, the election result is still open. So what will determine the final results of the 2020 presidential elections? The form of the last week. Who will come up with a better idea in the final stretch. But also, who will more effectively manage to avoid mistakes.” https://opinie.wp.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020-kozinski-trzaskowski-pokazal-ze-cierpliwosc-poplaca-czy-to-wystarczy-by-pokonac-teraz-dude-opinia-6528876989319872a -- ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI WRITES THAT Duda's VOTERS ARE THE MOST SOCIODEMOGRAPHICALLY DISTANT FROM THE VOTERS OF THE DROPPED OPPOSITION CANDIDATES - he writes in GW: “If one were to rely solely on demographic indicators like those analyzed here, one should state clearly: Andrzej Duda has little chance of winning over the voters of the most significant losing candidates in the first round. In essence, he can count on the remnants of PSL voters who remained loyal to Kosiniak-Kamysz until the very end. As for Hołownia's and Biedroń's voters – all previous polls confirmed what the demographic characteristics also indicate: these voters will overwhelmingly support Rafał Trzaskowski. The question of Bosak's voters remains open. They share a conservative and pro-church value system with Duda's voters, but everything else – age, education, dislike of social handouts and an inflated state – divides them. There is something to fight for – after all, it's over 1.3 million votes – but I don't think Duda will manage to attract even half of them.” -- ACCORDING TO MACHOWSKI, EVERYTHING INDICATES THAT TRZASKOWSKI WILL PREVAIL: “The first round of the presidential elections is another election showing the 'separateness' of the PiS electorate and its presidential candidate. What is good for PiS is that it is a disciplined, cohesive, and large electorate. But what is fatal is that it has lost its ability to expand. I may be wrong, but he who risks nothing, gains nothing... So I will risk it and say: all this indicates that Trzaskowski will prevail after all.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26100091,elektorat-dudy-jest-wyobcowany-trudno-bedzie-go-poszerzyc.html -- PHOTO. William Turner, View of Orvieto, 1828, Tate Gallery. The canvas depicts the vicinity of Rome, calm and serene. It shows references to Lorraine's landscapes, but most importantly, Turner marvels at Italian light. He observes the change of times of day and how light transforms the landscape. The painting "View of Orvieto" is very diverse: clear light is visible, but also the finest details depicted as if in motion, for example, the leaves of the bushes on the left side of the canvas. There is no historical representation here. Italy, with its light and landscapes, completely captivated the artist. A beautiful work. In 1828, in a letter to his friend Charles Eastlake, he wrote: "First the brushes will begin, con amore, an artistic homage to the beautiful Claude." A clear reference to Lorraine's painting is "View of Orvieto," a painting from 1828, currently in the Tate Gallery in London. https://niezlasztuka.net/ciekawostki/william-turner-i-claude-lorraine/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Anna Zalewska, Rafał Dutkiewicz, Ryszard Petru, Andrzej Szkaradek.

Łukasz Mężyk