-- TOMASZ GRZELEWSKI, PARLIAMENTARY CORRESPONDENT, RECENTLY SPOKESPERSON FOR THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION, HAS DIED: https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/tomasz-grzelewski-nie-zyje-rzecznik-pkw-jeszcze-we-wtorek-prowadzil-konferencje-6527318579775617a -- RZ ON REDUCING VAT ON CHILDREN'S GOODS AND FOOD WITH THE NEW VAT MATRIX: “A lower 5% VAT will also apply to diapers, pacifiers, car seats, and feminine hygiene products. 'Many shops are already luring customers with price reductions, primarily on food,' says Cezary Szymaś. Unfortunately, the tax authorities not only give but also take away. 'We are increasing VAT to 23% on goods considered luxury, e.g., octopuses, lobsters, shrimp, or caviar. The tax rate is also increasing for ice for drinks and firewood,' informs Zbigniew Makowski.” https://www.rp.pl/VAT/306309913-1-lipca-2020-r-weszla-w-zycie-nowa-matryca-stawek-VAT.html -- 53:47 FOR THE PRESIDENT IN A POLL FOR WPOLITYCE: https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/507114-konfederacja-i-jej-wyborcy-beda-pierwszym-celem-obozu-iii-rp -- ŚPIEWAK WON THE LAWSUIT AGAINST MEC. DUBOIS: “I am pleased to inform you that I have won a lawsuit against the well-known lawyer Jacek Dubois. It concerned the phrase 'wild reprivatization'. Dubois filed a criminal complaint against me, which carries a penalty of up to one year in prison. I am very grateful to Krzysztof Nowiński from the KNS MCB law firm, who dedicated many hours of his valuable time pro bono to respond to Dubois' absurd accusations. It was about a post I made after the arrest of the mayor of Włochy for accepting a 200,000 PLN bribe. It turned out that Dubois represents a former associate of Rafał Trzaskowski. Earlier, Trzaskowski hired Dubois' law firms to fight the Verification Commission. This seemed like an obvious conflict of interest, which I commented on here on my profile.” https://www.facebook.com/JanDawidSpiewak -- US GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL: HUAWEI THREATENS NATIONAL SECURITY: https://technologia.dziennik.pl/sprzet/artykuly/6441491,huawei-usa-zarzuty-sledztwo.html -- PRESIDENT ON FREEDOM OF SPEECH AND CRITICISM OF POLITICAL CORRECTNESS, TRZASKOWSKI ON FREE QUOTAS, GRODZKI ANNOUNCES SENATE AMENDMENTS TO THE TOURISM VOUCHER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/07/01/ -- TRZASKOWSKI STILL AROUND 700 THOUSAND VOTES SHORT - ŁUKASZ WARZECHA IN RZ ON A POLITICAL THRILLER: “Trzaskowski, however, needs as many as 4 million additional votes. 400,000 votes from Bosak, just over 2 million from Hołownia, around 400,000 from Biedroń, and, optimistically, 300,000 from Kosiniak-Kamysz – that's still at least 700,000 votes short. It turns out then – which, in light of many polls, is not a great discovery – that the result of the second round may be decided by 500,000 to 800,000 new or undecided voters. And perhaps even fewer. In a political horror scenario, it could be barely a few tens of thousands of votes. All of this, of course, is a bit of journalistic play, because voters are not automatons, and a lot can happen in the next two weeks. On Sunday, July 12, we will have a real thriller.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/200639919-Lukasz-Warzecha-Czekajac-na-polityczny-thriller.html -- NUMBERS SHOW THE CHALLENGE FACING TRZASKOWSKI - GAZETA WYBORCZA'S SONAR: “However, behind these percentages are people. Hundreds, thousands, millions of people. For Andrzej Duda, specifically, over 8.45 million people. For Rafał Trzaskowski, over 5.9 million. Such a 'humanized' perspective shows the scale of the challenge facing the Civic Coalition candidate if he wants to win this year's presidential election. The over 13 percentage point difference between him and President Duda in the first round already represents a difference in support of over 2.5 million people. Trzaskowski must eliminate this difference to celebrate victory on July 12.” -- THE WINNER MUST RECEIVE APPROXIMATELY 9.7 MILLION VOTES - SONAR CONTINUES: “Trzaskowski must therefore still gain the missing 2,533,173 votes to catch up with Duda. Plus, of course, at least one more than the re-election-seeking president gains between the first and second rounds. If we assume the turnout on July 12 will be the same as on June 28 – when 19,425,459 valid votes were cast – the winner of the race should gain the support of at least 9,712,730 people.” -- TRZASKOWSKI MUST CONVINCE 64% MORE VOTERS THAN IN THE FIRST ROUND - SONAR CONTINUES: “Under this assumption, the scale of the challenge facing Rafał Trzaskowski increases further. He would have to increase his first-round electorate by as much as almost 3.8 million people. In other words, he would have to convince 64% more people than in the first round.” -- DUDA NEEDS TO CONVINCE 15% MORE VOTERS THAN IN THE FIRST ROUND - GW SONAR CONTINUES: “Assuming the same turnout as in the first round, the level of difficulty for Andrzej Duda will be significantly lower this year. He would only have to increase his current voter base by 'just' 15%. To win, he would need to count, in addition to the votes of his first-round voters, on over 1.26 million more votes from other people.” https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,26082402,druga-tura-wyborow-liczby-pokazuja-jak-trudne-zadanie-czeka.html -- THE PRESIDENT'S CAMP FOCUSES ON MOBILIZING VOTERS AGED 60+ AND IN THE EAST - JACEK GĄDEK ON GAZETA.PL: “The president's camp is focusing on mobilizing its voters and demobilizing Trzaskowski's electorate. 'The mobilization of voters aged 60+ was too low, and there are still many votes to be gained here. Similarly, in eastern Poland, we still have significant reserves,' says a PiS politician. Turnout nationwide was 64.51%. Below the average were – and these are regions that strongly favor Duda – Podlasie (only 60.35%), Podkarpacie, and the Świętokrzyskie and Lublin voivodeships. In contrast, turnout among people aged 60+ was – according to the Ipsos late poll – only 55.9%, even though Duda repeated like a mantra that he gave seniors a 'thirteenth' pension and will also give a 'fourteenth'.” -- RELATIVE CALM IN PiS - GĄDEK FURTHER ON THE BACKSTAGE: “There is relative calm in PiS regarding the results of the second round, and a conviction that only a spectacular failure in TV debates or a confluence of many unfavorable factors could deprive Duda of victory. 'It's hard to lose these elections now,' says a politician close to Duda's campaign. Especially since Trzaskowski is a rather easy target for Duda and the government's propaganda apparatus. The two most inconvenient topics for the Civic Platform candidate are: the retirement age and LGBT rights.” -- LGBT DEMOBILIZES THOSE WHO COULD BE TRZASKOWSKI'S NEW VOTERS - reports Gądek: “The LGBT issue will be present in the campaign. A politician from the PiS camp says: 'The LGBT issue mobilizes our voters and demobilizes those who could be Trzaskowski's new voters in the second round. Trzaskowski's left-leaning nature repels voters.' ” -- TRZASKOWSKI'S ELECTION EVENING AND A THERAPEUTIC SESSION FOR KIDAWOW SURPRISED PiS CAMPAIGN STAFF - GĄDEK further on GAZETA.PL: “PiS campaign staff are waiting for Trzaskowski's mistakes. The ruling camp was surprised by how the Civic Platform candidate's election evening and the start of his second-round campaign looked. Rafał Trzaskowski had his evening in a fashionable Warsaw spot – Elektrownia Powiśle square. This provided fodder for the narrative that he is a candidate of the elite. Andrzej Duda preferred to go into the field – he was in Łowicz in the evening, 100 kilometers from the capital. Next to Trzaskowski on stage gathered the party's top brass. Meanwhile, Duda ensured a backdrop of young people and children. Trzaskowski thanked Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska at the outset, who is associated with the Civic Platform's polling defeat in the May elections that didn't happen. The crowd chanted 'Kidawa, Kidawa!' as if the evening was meant to be a therapeutic session for the former candidate, not a fight for Trzaskowski's result.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,26085499,w-pis-zaskoczenie-bledami-rafala-trzaskowskiego-andrzej-duda.html -- TYRANNICAL POLITICAL CORRECTNESS IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO THE CONFEDERATION, THEY WILL CALL FOR DELEGITIMIZATION - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The defeat of Andrzej Duda and the victory of Trzaskowski will bury the Confederation. Why? Because it will be the beginning of the restoration of leftist and liberal rule in Poland. And if the left and liberals come to power in Poland, they will restart the same processes we witnessed before 2015. The introduction of increasingly tyrannical political correctness and the re-imposition of shame pedagogy will begin. The finale will be soft and hard repression against patriotic and national circles. They will find themselves cornered. Yes, they will survive, but they will not be able to develop. Because in a world of actual oppression, in a world that is authoritarian in many dimensions, it is impossible to exceed a certain level of support. If only because people will fear stigmatization and the high costs of their involvement. And they will know what is censored. They will hear calls for the delegalization of various organizations, for dealing with 'fascism.' And these will be slogans authorized by the authorities and the police.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/507114-konfederacja-i-jej-wyborcy-beda-pierwszym-celem-obozu-iii-rp -- SOMEONE WANTS TO TRAP ANDRZEJ DUDA, HENCE THIS PRESSURE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Someone clearly wants to trap Andrzej Duda, someone attaches great importance to this project. I'm not surprised – Trzaskowski cannot compete on programs, quality of governance, or statecraft. He must resort to provocations, he must use his greatest asset – the power of his camp's media. I would not be surprised if somewhere in the background, the details of some provocation were being worked out during such a potential debate. Hence this pressure. This proposal smells bad, like sewage flowing into Poland from Warsaw. Let's stick to the rules: a debate on public television, as always, or on the biggest stations, if they agree.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/507108-ktos-najwyrazniej-chce-wciagnac-dude-w-pulapke -- JACEK LIZINIEWICZ REMINDS THAT THE LEADER OF THE GREENS VOTED FOR MYŚLIWY…: “Following the principle – I prefer Platform's manure in the field to violets in Naples. It was precisely this logic that led the leader of the Greens, Ms. Małgorzata Tracz, to vote for Bronisław Komorowski, the hunter, five years ago, which she unashamedly admitted in an interview with Robert Mazurek. Unfortunately, most ecological organizations operate on this principle, and this brutally violates logic. Since discharging sewage into the Vistula does not harm the environment, why are Poland and Europe investing in sewage treatment plants?” https://niezalezna.pl/338293-fart-rafala -- DEFINITION OF MADNESS ACCORDING TO EINSTEIN - RAFAŁ WOŚ ON THE SITUATION OF THE LEFT - in an opinion piece for SE: “Einstein's definition of madness is: doing the same thing over and over again in the hope of achieving different results. If the Polish left does not take this to heart, it will continue to lose spectacularly. Just as Robert Biedroń lost yesterday, collecting 2% of the votes in the elections.” -- PEOPLE SEE THE LEFT AS A GROUP OF OUT-OF-TOUCH CHILDREN - WOŚ continues: “The worst part is that the left has allowed itself to be convinced that it is fighting for 'great causes' and seriously defending an 'open and smiling Poland' against an invasion of the 'homophobic, nationalist people.' What is the reaction? People see that the left doesn't understand them and despises them. But they no longer have much desire to convince others that they are not camels. So for years they have waved their hands at the left, treating them as a group of out-of-touch and unserious children.” https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/wybory2020-rafal-wos-dla-super-expressu-lewice-racz-nam-zwrocic-panie-aa-sNVG-Y7Ue-WN2W.html -- PERHAPS HOŁOWNIA IS THE HOPE FOR LEFT-CENTREDNESS - KINGA DUNIN in Krytyka Polityczna: “Beyond the future election results, I am most interested in how the left will fare in the future. Others have already dealt with accounting for its low result and offering good advice. I am thinking about Szymon Hołownia and the people he managed to mobilize. Perhaps he is the hope for the left? Not necessarily for the Left party, but for left-leaning sentiment, as we intuitively understand it.” -- HOŁOWNIA IS LEFT-CENTRED IN THE MOST MODERN WAY - DUNIN continues: “Everyone in this campaign, in certain respects, is/was left-leaning (excluding Konfederacja) on social issues. However, Hołownia is left-leaning in a more modern way – very pro-ecological, friendly to immigrants, genuinely interested in animal rights, does not overuse nationalist language, pro-European, ready to deal with the excluded... He is more credible in this than PO. And he speaks much more sharply on the separation of church and state; perhaps even Biedroń couldn't speak so sharply about it. However, they differed on the issue of religion in schools, because here Hołownia's radicalism ended.” -- IT IS EVIDENT THAT TRZASKOWSKI CAN SACRIFICE CERTAIN ISSUES, WHILE HOŁOWNIA HAS UNDERGONE AN AUTHENTIC TRANSFORMATION AND IS BELIEVABLE - DUNIN continues: “Perhaps so, but Trzaskowski is a politician who, even if he has liberal impulses in private, these issues are not important to him, they can always be sacrificed. And with Hołownia, we see something moving in his worldview, and if he says he has changed his mind on certain issues, he is quite credible. One gets the impression that an authentic transformation is taking place within him. More than others, he can set an example and accompany those like himself, inspire them. No one, not even the most deserving left, which has long since processed this, can provide such work on social awareness. Nor can someone for whom it is not a politically important issue. Why can Hołownia be credible? Because he has been celebrating his worldview for years, every nuance of it. He tries to define his Catholicism for himself outside the worn-out language of the Church; he converted to veganism…” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/kinga-dunin/wybory-prezydenckie-szymon-holownia-lewica/ -- PRESIDENTIAL PARIS IS WORTH A CONFEDERATION MASS - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI - in Krytyka: "I even agree with Konieczny that Bosak's economic views are 'hateful and violent'; I agree with Zandberg that democracy and human rights must not be sold. I only believe that in the name of an impulse of disgust, it is not worth washing one's hands in a situation where hateful and violent economic practices can be effectively stopped. And to stop the steamroller that is crushing democracy and human rights into pulp. Or, in other words: Paris is worth a mass. After all, for the secular left, Paris really exists, and a mass is just a ritual, isn't it?" -- TRZASKOWSKI'S BOW TO THE EXTREME RIGHT WILL ALLOW HIM TO TIP THE SCALES ON JULY 12 - SUTOWSKI continues: “And no, this does not mean that it is good to cure the plague with cholera, or to dismantle PiS with alliances with even more extreme right-wing elements. Simply put – in two weeks, it will be decided whether Jarosław Kaczyński will be able to catch his breath, regain the Senate, consolidate his camp again after Gowin's excesses, and 'finish' the courts and media – or not. Trzaskowski's bow to the extreme right may allow him to tip the scales on July 12 and tilt them in favor of the opposition.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/michal-sutowski-konfederacja-rafal-trzaskowski/ -- PERHAPS MOST POLES YEARN FOR GOMUŁKA'S SMALL STABILIZATION RATHER THAN POLAND 2050 - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA in RZ: “And anyway, even a real movement, once the dust settles – if it survives – will enter parliament and will also turn into a party – or perish. Szymon Hołownia – indirectly – supported Rafał Trzaskowski. This opened up a path for him and his people to politics somewhat closer than that of the year 2050. He has the right to do so – he worked hard during the campaign. But he is neither Gandhi nor Mandela. And most Poles yearn more for Gomułka's small stabilization than for holding hands and singing uplifting songs about Community. Whatever that may be.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/200639913-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-Oddolny-ruch-od-gory-budowany.html -- PERSUADING HOŁOWNIA'S VOTERS MAY NOT BE AS EASY AS IT SEEMS - PAWEŁ BRAVO in Tygodnik Powszechny: “No winner of the first round of presidential elections has ever had such a good result, and never has the loss of the second candidate been so great. A 13-point difference is a lot to make up. Persuading Szymon Hołownia's voters may not be easy at all: this candidate's most important contribution was waking voters from apathy – even those who had previously voted for one of the parties and then resigned from endorsing the 'duopoly.' The fact that so many Poles who declared they would vote for Hołownia at the beginning of May 'returned' to Platform when it presented a new candidate does not mean that the rest will do so as readily. Apathy is not an ailment that is cured once and for all.” -- IT IS IMPORTANT THAT TRZASKOWSKI DOES NOT PUSH PLATFORM TOWARDS SERVICING XENOPHOBIC EMOTIONS, JUST DRESSED IN A METROPOLITAN COSTUME - BRAVO continues in TP: “Will the PO campaign staff be tempted to fight at all costs for those few hundred thousand Confederation supporters for whom economic and fiscal issues are more important than the fact that Rafał Trzaskowski is associated with inclusive policies towards minorities? What would he have to hide from his message and whom from his current supporters? This is one of the most important questions in the coming days. Trzaskowski has a very uphill battle now, and the stakes of his potential victory are very high. However, if he is to lose, it is important that before the second round, he does not take steps that would push Platform towards servicing xenophobic emotions, class egoism, and authoritarianism – albeit dressed in a more visually palatable, metropolitan costume.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/kuszenie-konfederata-163934 -- ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ IS DISSATISFIED WITH HOŁOWNIA'S BEHAVIOR: “The problem with Hołownia is that, although he denies it, he throws political tantrums when it's time for maturity and responsibility. He dreamed of a second round, but Trzaskowski overtook him. In the first hours after the first round, he grumbled that perhaps he would support Trzaskowski, or perhaps he wouldn't. On Tuesday, he announced that he had no candidate and left his voters free hand because he is not 'the master of their consciences.' It sounds good, but how is a voter going to the polls on July 12 supposed to understand this?” https://szostkiewicz.blog.polityka.pl/2020/06/30/problem-z-holownia/ -- AND MAGDA ŚRODA COMPLIMENTS HOŁOWNIA - in an article for GW: “His strengths are freshness, energy, intelligence, and rhetoric in the Ciceronian style, meaning: to charm (ethos), to argue (logos), to move (pathos). The Party of Enlightened Catholics will therefore be another attempt to establish a political movement that – perhaps – will break the PO–PiS duopoly. Previous attempts (Ruch Palikota, Kukiz'15, Wiosna) were unsuccessful. In my opinion, due to the overly inflated narcissism of the leaders. Hołownia's narcissism is no less, but perhaps at some point it will activate the Catholic virtue of humility and he will cease to be the god of his party, becoming its servant. Hołownia's movement may surprise in its scope, because in our Catholic country, there are many who love Jesus but suffocate in a Church where Rydzyk and the President are loved.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26081425,holownia-ma-talent-czy-uruchomi-cnote-pokory.html -- PHOTO: Dido Raises Carthage (The Founding of the Carthaginian Empire) – an oil painting by English painter William Turner from 1815, housed in the National Gallery in London. The inspiration for the painting was Claude Lorrain's work, A Sea Port with the Embarkation of the Queen of Sheba, which Turner could admire in the Louvre in Paris. -- The theme of the painting is a direct reference to the legend of the founding of Carthage, contained in Virgil's Aeneid: Dido fled Tyre with the body of her husband Sychaeus and reached the shores of North Africa, where she founded a new city. The tomb of the heroine's husband is depicted on the right edge of the canvas, surrounded by majestic trees. Just behind the structure, the trunk of a withered tree is visible, but next to it, a new one is already growing, which is a symbolic expression that Sychaeus's death is, in reality, the beginning of the birth of a new kingdom. Dido is depicted on the left side of the painting, giving orders to the surrounding retinue of builders raising the first structures of the newly founded city. Opposite her stands Aeneas, dressed in a dark cloak and with a helmet on his head. The main couple is indicated by the masts placed above them in an optical curve. Next to them, in the foreground, boys are seen flying boats on the water – a harbinger of Carthage's future maritime power. Although the painting depicts the birth of a new empire, further emphasized by the glow of the rising sun on the horizon, a premonition of its future fall can already be sensed in the depicted scene. Sam Turner considered the painting his greatest masterpiece, refusing to sell it, and in the first version of his will, drawn up in 1829, he ordered that it be used as a shroud after his death. He eventually agreed to bequeath it to the National Gallery in London on the condition that the canvas, along with another painting he kept, 'The Fall of Carthage,' would always be displayed on both sides of Lorrain's painting, which he admired. -- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Seweryński, Daria Nałęcz, Krzysztof Szubert, Krzysztof Krystowski, Szymon Ziółkowski, Stach Kornatowski.