-- BIELAN ON THE SENATE: THE CHAMBER OF OBSTRUCTION, HOŁOWNIA WANTS A DEBATE WITH DUDA IN BIAŁYSTOK, WHERE THEY WILL BE AT THE SAME TIME MORAWIECKI PROBABLY THE FIRST PRIME MINISTER IN THE KRAKOW CITY HALL HOŁOWNIA WILL SHOW 24 HOURS OF HIS CAMPAIGN ON FB - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/06/19/ -- PROF. MARKOWSKI'S TEAM ESTIMATES RESULTS AT 55% TURNOUT: “Applying this method indicates that both main candidates are gaining – relative to raw results – at all hypothetical turnout levels, though most significantly at 55 percent. In such a situation, Duda and Trzaskowski are separated by 12 percentage points (Duda 45 percent, Trzaskowski – 33 percent). As turnout increases to 70 percent, Bosak and Biedroń gain, although in both cases, the low level of support suggests caution in interpreting their results”. -- RESULT RANGES DEPENDING ON TURNOUT - ACCORDING TO SWPS ANALYSTS UNDER PROF. MARKOWSKI (Radosław Markowski, Michał Kotnarowski, Rafał Miśta): Duda 43.6-44.6 Trzaskowski 30.1-33 Hołownia 11.3-11.9 Bosak 4.6-51 Kosiniak 1.5-3.1 -- DUDA WINS AT ALL TURNOUT LEVELS - CONTINUES SWPS ANALYSTS: “Setting aside specific maneuvers, one can say this: if we estimate the final voting behavior of undecided voters based on their liking of these two candidates, then Duda wins, albeit minimally, at all turnout levels. If, however, we estimate the probability of behavior based on conformist behavior relative to the preferences of their environment, then Duda wins only at the lowest turnout.” -- ANALYSES POINT TO DUDA'S ULTIMATE VICTORY IN THE SECOND ROUND - CONTINUES SWPS ANALYSTS IN GW: “The estimated results of the second round are very complex. In the case of the likely Duda – Trzaskowski lineup, more analyses point to the current president's ultimate victory. In the case of a highly improbable Duda – Hołownia duel, Hołownia wins in all configurations. Some Poles therefore face a dilemma: what is more important: pushing their own candidate at all costs, or concentrating on removing the one they do not want to see in the Belvedere Palace?” -- THE COMPLICATED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOŁOWNIA'S AND TRZASKOWSKI'S VOTERS - THEY WILL SUPPORT HIM LESS WILLINGLY THAN TRZASKOWSKI'S VOTERS WILL SUPPORT HOŁOWNIA IN A HYPOTHETICAL SECOND ROUND: “The rather complicated relationship between the two opponents of Duda in a hypothetical second round stems mainly from the fact that while Trzaskowski's electorate is almost entirely (in most estimates over 90 percent) willing to support Hołownia, Hołownia's supporters are more reserved in declaring their vote for Trzaskowski, although in this case the percentage reaches 75 percent.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26042512,jak-przebic-50-proc-poparcia-w-drugiej-turze.html -- IPSOS FOR OKO PRESS: PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA SAID AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT THAT LGBT IS A DANGEROUS IDEOLOGY THAT POLAND NEEDS TO BE DEFENDED AGAINST. DO YOU AGREE WITH THIS STATEMENT? 53% STRONGLY AND RATHER DISAGREE, 38% STRONGLY AND RATHER AGREE. -- WILL DUDA MANAGE TO SHAKE OFF THE BROWN LABEL? - ASK THE AUTHORS OF OKO PRESS: "Duda's course was a special nod to Konfederacja voters. The president turned away from the center to snatch a few percentage points from Krzysztof Bosak. However, less than half of those voting for the far-right (43 percent) picked up on the president's homophobia. 47 percent see no threat in the 'LGBT ideology.' It is therefore not surprising that Andrzej Duda's campaign team is trying to backpedal from extremely homophobic rhetoric. Hence the quasi-conciliatory invitation to LGBT people to the Presidential Palace (we wrote about this here) or statements from campaign staff apologizing for MP Czarnek. However, the president announced that he himself does not intend to apologize publicly for the words we are checking in the poll. Question: will it be possible to shake off the brown label in such a situation?" -- TRZASKOWSKI IS THE BLOOD AND BONES OF PLATFORMA – PRIME MINISTER MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ KOLANKO AND CEZARY SZYMANEK IN RZ: “Rafał Trzaskowski is the blood and bones of PO, the vice-chairman of this party. He is Mr. Budka's, Schetyna's, and Tusk's candidate. That is why I am truly convinced that he will also follow the path set by the opposition – continuous obstruction, veto for the sake of veto, the 'no, because no' approach. He will adopt the opposition's modus operandi because he himself is a candidate entirely dependent on Platforma.” -- WOULD WE HAVE LAUNCHED THE SHIELDS SO QUICKLY WITH A PRESIDENT FROM PO? THE SPEED OF MR. GRODZKI SHOWS THE PERSPECTIVE – CONTINUES THE PRIME MINISTER IN RZ: “Andrzej Duda guarantees this; in dramatic circumstances, he was able to react quickly. Within two weeks, in cooperation with the President, we launched shields protecting Polish workers and Polish companies. This is already PLN 90 billion, which has helped to protect well over 4 million jobs. How long would it have taken with a President from PO? The 'speed' of Mr. Grodzki's actions and his tendency to freeze laws show the perspective.” -- THE PRIME MINISTER ON THE QUESTION OF LGBT – SOMETIMES WE TALK ABOUT THOSE FEW MATTERS THAT DIVIDE POLES, NOT UNITE THEM: “Law and Justice has always been a force supporting families. After all, a person lives in many dimensions. Social, economic, but also familial. Hence the Family Charter and, among other things, planned changes in education law that are intended to increase the role of parents regarding the content their children learn in schools during extracurricular activities. All our actions in this area, starting with social programs, are aimed at supporting families in their freedom and independence. Regarding LGBT, I have the impression, however, that sometimes we talk primarily about those few matters that divide Poles, instead of about the decisive majority that unites them.” -- WE WILL SEE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE FOURTH QUARTER – SAYS THE PRIME MINISTER: “I believe that in the fourth quarter, we will see economic growth. However, for every entrepreneur, something is more important than numbers. Do I have my clients? Have I maintained my production capacity? Do I have opportunities for further development? Have I managed to maintain employment in my company? We are acting in such a way that everyone asking these questions answers them positively.” -- BY LOWERING TAXES EARLIER, WE CREATED A SAFETY NET – CONTINUES THE PRIME MINISTER IN RZ: “Germany has not made significant changes to its tax system for years. This solution is also temporary. In the last five years, we have permanently lowered corporate income tax to 9 percent. In Germany, it is still 33 percent. We have lowered personal income tax for everyone, introduced reliefs in ZUS contributions, and have zero income tax for young Poles, those up to 26 years of age. One could say that, not knowing what the future holds, we have created a kind of safety net for companies and citizens against the economic effects of the epidemic. Furthermore, we are reducing VAT rates for many items as part of streamlining the matrix – this amounts to approximately PLN 800 million that will remain in consumers' wallets.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzad-PiS/306189895-Morawiecki-Trzaskowski-to-kandydat-Tuska.html -- SEVERAL MINISTERS WOULD LIKE TO FOLLOW KWIECIŃSKI'S PATH – JAKUB SZCZEPAŃSKI IN INTERIA ON THE EXPECTED RECONSTRUCTION: “Discussions about government reconstruction have been ongoing for a long time. However, it is no secret that specific decisions will be made at Nowogrodzka Street after the presidential elections. This will be a time for settling accounts, summarizing, and drawing consequences. The personal ambitions of individual government members also play a role. - It is said that several ministers would like to follow Jerzy Kwieciński's path. They are tired, they would like to earn more, but get rid of great responsibility - says one PiS MP familiar with the matter.” -- KORWIN IN SZCZEPAŃSKI'S ARTICLE: WE WILL NOT BE USED TO PUNISH GOWIN'S PEOPLE: “Janusz Korwin-Mikke, one of the parliamentary leaders of this group, denies information about behind-the-scenes negotiations with PiS. Although he does not rule out any solutions. - Everything is possible after the elections. However, I assure you that we will not be used as a tool to punish Gowin's people - the politician told Interia. We also asked about talks with PiS at PSL. - They will now talk about coalition changes, settling accounts with Gowin. This does not surprise me at all - Marek Sawicki, former Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development from PSL, tells us. - If they wanted to make a deal, they would have called me. I am aware of that. They consider me a right-wing person and sometimes try to scheme - he adds.” -- SZCZEPAŃSKI ON CANDIDATES FOR RECONSTRUCTION: “In the context of reconstruction, the names mentioned include Minister of Health Łukasz Szumowski, Minister of Sport Danuta Dmowska-Andrzejuk, Minister of Family, Labor and Social Policy Marlena Maląg, and Małgorzata Jarosińska-Jedynak from the Ministry of Funds and Regional Policy. - Everything will depend on the election results - Interia's sources agree.” https://fakty.interia.pl/autor/jakub-szczepanski/news-po-wyborach-rekonstrukcja-rzadu-czyhaja-na-jaroslawa-gowina,nId,4561259 -- THE DESPERATE SURGE SHOWED THAT THE SPECTER OF DUDA'S DEFEAT IS REAL - JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The desperate surge showed that the specter of Duda's defeat is real, and the president's campaign team lacks ideas on how to reverse the unfavorable trend. PiS has only proven that when they lack ideas, they first resort to below-the-belt blows. It seems that this time the extremist outburst of the president's camp has brought Duda closer to defeat.” -- VOTING LOGIC DICTATED THAT TRZASKOWSKI SHOULD NOT ENGAGE IN DUDA'S NARRATIVE – CONTINUES BODZIONY: “PiS failed to provoke Trzaskowski or his campaign team into fighting on the terms set by the ruling camp. Some will consider Trzaskowski's reaction insufficiently strong, but voting logic dictated that he should not engage in Duda's narrative. Trzaskowski therefore only repeated his constant message about the need to build a new community.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/06/19/lgbt-pis-wylozyl-sie-na-hejcie/ -- THE DEBATE WILL NOT REVERSE THE TREND FAVORABLE TO TRZASKOWSKI – SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI IN KRYTYKA: “I wrote earlier in various media (in 'Polityka' and on Facebook just before the debate) that Trzaskowski could lose more than gain in this debate. Expectations of him are so high that if he doesn't perform excellently, there will be dissatisfaction. It's enough for someone else to shine or for Andrzej Duda not to disgrace himself, for critical voices against Trzaskowski to arise. And so it happened. The debate on TVP will not reverse the trend that is favorable to Trzaskowski. And this experience from Wednesday will help him, as it will lower expectations before future debates. No one will be counting on a miracle anymore. Therefore, I believe that in the final analysis, it turned out for the best.” -- FOR THOSE WHO SUPPORT HIM, DUDA DID NOT PERFORM BADLY AT ALL – CONTINUES SIERAKOWSKI: “Andrzej Duda may embarrass us with his behavior, but for those who support him, and for those he wanted to win over, he did not perform badly at all. Duda was relaxed, calm, and conciliatory. Everything was set up for him, so he could most easily achieve his goal. The debate was broadcast on the main TV channel during prime time, so it might help him in the polls, but it will likely only slow down the decline rather than reverse the trend. After the debate, he still had 10 minutes to answer questions from TVP journalists (he didn't notice others). What happened on Wednesday was a blatant media manipulation.” -- BOSAK IS DESERVEDLY APPROACHING 10%, WHEN HE MATURES, HE WILL BE A VERY DIFFICULT OPPONENT – CONTINUES SIERAKOWSKI: “Besides the leader of UP, Krzysztof Bosak performed best. Although he looked like a class president and more like a candidate for president's son than for president. Especially with that flag, which resembled a school toy. However, when it came to answering questions, his answers were clear, substantive, firm, but not frightening to voters. Of course, this does not mean I like them. I am only evaluating what the candidates achieved through the debate in their efforts to gain votes. Bosak is deservedly approaching 10 percent in the polls. And when he matures a bit, he will be a very difficult opponent. He must not be underestimated.” -- BIEDROŃ IS SLOWLY MAKING UP FOR A BROKEN PROMISE – CONTINUES SIERAKOWSKI: “Witkowski's success is a drama for Robert Biedroń. I don't think Witkowski can overtake him in the polls, but he managed to do so in the debate. And this despite Biedroń having several good moments. Overall, however, he looked very tired from the campaign. It is impressive that he endures the last weeks with class. He doesn't complain, he does his job. In my opinion, he is slowly making up for what he lost when he broke his word about giving up his MEP mandate and running for parliament. And without making up for these image losses, he will not return to big politics. Paradoxically, therefore, I believe that Biedroń, like Trzaskowski, will benefit from these experiences. Without defeats in politics, there are no victories. Those who have reached the top know this very well. Keep your chin up!” https://krytykapolityka.pl/kraj/debata-tvp-przyda-sie-trzaskowskiemu-i-biedroniowi/ -- IN FOOTBALL POKER, THEY WOULDN'T HAVE INVENTED SUCH A FIXED MATCH – MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “In 'Football Poker,' they wouldn't have invented what TVP did in Wednesday's presidential debate. Can you lose a fixed match?” -- TRZASKOWSKI MANAGED NOT TO MAKE A BAD IMPRESSION – CONTINUES SUTOWSKI: “Like all other candidates in the debate, Trzaskowski said his piece. And he came across as a radical centrist who would gladly attack PiS TVP, but wouldn't be 'total' or 'radical.' He is even more cautious than Hołownia on the issue of secularism, and he will focus on building nurseries and kindergartens instead of digging the Vistula Spit. In the first round, he might lose some votes to Hołownia, but from the perspective of demobilizing PiS voters in the second round, it's not the worst outcome of the debate. Trzaskowski certainly had the most to lose, as he is still on a good run. In yesterday's debate, he managed one thing in particular – not to make a bad impression.” -- NEXT TO BOSAK, DUDA CAME ACROSS AS AN UNDECIDED WIMP – CONTINUES SUTOWSKI: “How many such people will gather? We'll see in 10 days. But something else is more important. Against the extremely right-wing Krzysztof Bosak, proudly singing 'Tomorrow Belongs to Me' on public television, President Duda came across in the debate as an old, undecided wimp who equivocates, placates, talks around issues, and in reality fears calls from certain embassies. Many voters with such views will remember this on July 12th.” -- HE COULDN'T EVEN WIN SUCH AN OBVIOUS SET-UP – SUTOWSKI ON DUDA: “To console myself, I have the fact that Andrzej Duda and PiS lost Wednesday's debate twice over. They lost in the eyes of most 'normal' people – because his party and his television organized an obvious set-up for him, and he couldn't even win it.” -- AND IF BOSAK IS THE NEW INCARNATION OF BOLESŁAW PIASECKI, POLAND FACES TRAGEDIES – CONTINUES SUTOWSKI: “They lost in the eyes of the angry young right-wingers, because after the debate, Duda will appear to them as a mental cousin of Bronisław Komorowski. And the thought of supporting him in the second round will make them feel sick. If this unplanned alliance between President Kurski and Bosak takes a few percent away from the incumbent president in the second round, it might ultimately lead to the victory of the democratic opposition. Well, at least we will know that the Spirit of History has a sense of humor. And if it doesn't? Wednesday's farce disguised as a media presidential debate may bring tragedy for PiS in a month, but if Krzysztof Bosak is the new incarnation of Bolesław Piasecki, then much more serious tragedies await all of Poland.” https://krytykapolityka.pl/kraj/debata-prezydencka-2020-komentarz/ -- WITKOWSKI'S PROBLEM WITH EVICTIONS – JAN ROJEWSKI ON POLITYKA PORTAL: “The issue of non-halted evictions is also problematic. In the debate, the candidate mentioned twice that he is the chairman of the Hipolit Cegielski Housing Cooperative in Poznań. In 2016, he filed a request with a bailiff to initiate enforcement proceedings regarding an apartment where a man who had suffered a stroke lived. Witkowski insisted that he had no idea about the condition of the person being evicted. He lost the case two years later. Will this harm him in the elections? Well, the candidate of the Labor Union probably didn't expect much anyway, but yesterday's performance will be remembered by voters. At the finish line of the race, Witkowski might cause trouble for Biedroń. The candidate of the Left, who polls give 2 to 6 percent support, would then be in the same league as 'plankton candidates' like Stanisław Żółtek or Paweł Tanajno.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1960730,1,polski-bernie-sanders-kim-jest-kandydat-waldemar-witkowski.read -- THE DIVISION INTO THE BETTER AND THE DOOMED TO EXTINCTION WILL RETURN – MICHAŁ KARMOWSKI ON AN ANONYMOUS SPOT, ATTRIBUTED BY WPOLITYCE TO THE PO CAMPAIGN: “The conclusion from this matter is one: if Platforma wins, everything in Poland will return to the old ways. It will be as President Andrzej Duda described: we will lose everything that has changed for the better in Poland over the last five years. Contempt will return, the division into better and worse will return. The division into those destined for success, and those destined to extinction like dinosaurs.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/505360-platforma-sie-nie-zmienila-to-wciaz-jest-partia-pogardy -- NEVER AGAIN DEBATES ON TVP – ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ: “Instead of a debate, we had a poor spectacle, in which its authors cast eleven candidates according to their political plan in the roles of puppet Krakovians and highlanders, Sarmatians and fops, devout people and anticlericals. They were supposed to deliver their endlessly known lines and leave the screen. It was not a debate, but a puppet show. But the opposition campaign teams should draw conclusions from it. Because if there are to be more, then never under such a direction by TVP and PiS. Never.” https://szostkiewicz.blog.polityka.pl/2020/06/18/rafal-w-telewizyjnej-jaskini-zbojcow/ -- THE JAGIELLONIAN CLUB PROPOSES ALTERNATIVE QUESTIONS FOR CANDIDATES – E.G., ON 5G WITH THE CHINESE: “Should 5G be developed with the Chinese? The new mobile network standard – 5G – is a topic that combines technology and international politics. The services of some of our Western allies point to the technological dominance of Chinese companies posing a threat to cybersecurity. On the other hand, excluding them may slow down development and significantly increase its costs. As president, would you support actions to exclude Chinese companies from building 5G networks in Poland?” -- WHO SHOULD BE THE HERO OF A NATIONAL SUPERPRODUCTION – ANOTHER QUESTION: “Who should be the hero of a 'national superproduction'? Polish historical policy is dominated by the trauma of the 20th century wars or tells stories about monumental figures (like Józef Piłsudski or John Paul II). Without questioning this perspective, one can see that there is a lack of stories that would tell the recent history of Poland from a completely different, less monumental perspective. From what non-obvious historical figure would you make the hero of a film promoting Polish culture, and at the same time would you grant such a film presidential patronage and lobby for financial support for the initiative from the Minister of Culture?” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/06/18/polacy-zasluguja-na-prawdziwa-debate-10-pytan-klubu-jagiellonskiego/ -- DEFENSIVE DEFENSE OF THE GOOD CHANGE – BARTOSZ BRZYSKI IN KLUB JAGIELLOŃSKI ANALYZES DUDA'S CAMPAIGN PROGRAM AND SLOGANS: “However, the mention of what constituted the strength of the candidate five years ago now more strongly highlights the shortcomings – in language, vision, and programmatic postulates. Instead of an attractive narrative about Poland 2025, we have a defensive defense of the achievements of the 'good change.'” -- TODAY DUDA IS RUNNING A CAMPAIGN THAT IS THE OPPOSITE OF THE 2015 CAMPAIGN: “One thing is certain. President Andrzej Duda is today conducting a campaign that is the opposite of the one from 2015. Back then, away from party emblems, with a vision of a fairly inclusive community and non-polarizing language, he presented a vision of a modern and ambitious Poland. Today, the president presents himself not as an arbiter, which he wanted to be in 2015, but as a pillar of power creating clear social divisions. However, the strong promise of catching up with the West and ambitious politics, symbolized by large infrastructure projects, remains from the vision five years ago. Social sensitivity has also been preserved, evidenced by the defense of all social programs. The president tells voters: Let's not deviate from the chosen path, since it has already brought us so much good. Is this enough for him to win the elections for the second time as the second president in the history of the Third Republic? We will find out in the first week of July.” -- THE CULTURE WAR AS THE LEITMOTIF OF THE PIS CAMPAIGN – CONTINUES BRZYSKI: “The President presented the Family Charter, which, in addition to announcing the continuation of social programs and the introduction of a holiday voucher for children, included two major points dedicated to the 'defense of the institution of marriage' and 'protection of children from LGBT ideology.' Thus, the culture war has become the leitmotif of another campaign – after the European one – of Law and Justice.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/06/18/andrzej-duda-pigulka-programowa-straszenie-alternatywa-zamiast-wizji-drugiej-kadencji/ -- THE PRESIDENT IS LIKE THE CUSTOMER FROM "MIŚ" WHO HAD TO GO TO BYDGOSZCZ BECAUSE ALL THE SHOPS CLOSER HAD BEEN INSULTED – ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “The Polish president is a bit like that customer from 'Miś' who had to go to Bydgoszcz because all the shops closer to him had already been insulted. As a result of PiS's constant squabbles with the European Union, Andrzej Duda has no reason to go to Brussels or Berlin, let alone Paris. None of the leaders there will want to give a political gift to a representative of this government. In order to gain some international polish in the campaign, Andrzej Duda therefore has to go as far as Washington.” -- WHAT WILL BE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE VISIT TO THE USA IN THE EU? – ASKS DĄBROWSKA: “To a politician who, during the pandemic and recent protests against police brutality, racism, and social injustice, brutally removed a peaceful demonstration from a park to walk through a square himself and take a photo in front of a church. Will the Polish voter now consider photos of Trump and Duda smiling for the camera important enough to be worth spending the last hours of the campaign on transatlantic flights? What will be the consequences of this campaign visit to NATO and the European Union?” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/306189894-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-Walizka-z-krawatami-i-atom.html -- WITH TRZASKOWSKI IN THE PALACE, THE SEJM WILL REGAIN ITS SIGNIFICANCE – JAN LITYŃSKI IN GW: “A president worthy of the name, which Rafał Trzaskowski will be if he wins, will restore dignity to both Poland and the Polish parliament. This will also apply to the MPs of the ruling camp. Because then, when the presidential veto hangs in the air of the Sejm, real discussions will have to take place. Government MPs, currently spineless, will be able to express their point of view and justify it. Until now, they could only hoot according to the wishes of the leadership. Some did it with pleasure, others with mild embarrassment. The latter will have a chance to become real MPs. And this will be the revolution, the change that will create opportunities to stop the destruction of our country and our minds.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26044716,prezydent-trzaskowski-oczekujmy-rewolucji.html -- PHOTO. Joseph Wright, "An Experiment on a Bird in the Air Pump", 1768, National Gallery, London -- In 1768, the English painter Joseph Wright of Derby completed a painting titled "An Experiment on a Bird in the Air Pump." The painter was an admirable master of chiaroscuro, a late heir to Caravaggio in the field of dramatic light effects. "An Experiment on a Bird in the Air Pump" is a visual demonstration of Wright's skills, in which the artist realizes painting as baroque theater. The collective scene, of which we are witnesses, is plunged into darkness. The fire burning in the center of the composition extracts the actors of the drama from the darkness, who, with expressive mimicry and eloquent gestures, demonstrate various emotions and reactions to the spectacle unfolding before their – and our – eyes. The subject of Wright's depiction is the titular scientific experiment. The attention of the painting's characters is focused on the vacuum pump. In the experimental vessel, from which air is being evacuated, a parrot thrashes about. If the experiment continues, the bird will die, sacrificed on the altar of science. Some viewers are horrified by this prospect; a sensitive youngster hides his face in his hands, unable to watch any longer. Others are driven by a thirst for knowledge; they observe the parrot with focused curiosity. http://www.culturecongress.eu/theme/theme_risk_laboratory/szablowski_risk_laboratory -- BIRTHDAYS: Zygmunt Frankiewicz.