state of play: 06/13/2020

POLITICAL GAME STATE: Zaremba on Brudziński in Brussels, Chaos in PiS but Duda has a Chance, Appeals to the Provinces, Onet on Undermining Morawiecki, Morawiecki on €700 Billion from the EU, Karnowski: Konfederacja Turns Out to be Part of Trzaskowski's Cam

Łukasz Mężyk

-- DUDA DEFENDS ŻALEK AND SPEAKS OF NEO-BOLSHEVISM, TRZASKOWSKI ANNOUNCES A GREAT WAVE OF CHANGES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/06/13/ -- €700 BILLION FROM THE EU IS MORE THAN OUR PREDECESSORS WERE ABLE TO ATTRACT - PRIME MINISTER MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI IN CONVERSATION WITH MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON POLSAT NEWS: “In total, this sum may exceed PLN 700 billion. This is significantly more than our predecessors were able to attract to Poland (approx. PLN 300 billion – editorial note). The negotiations will certainly not be easy, but in European politics, the paths paved with roses are only for those who give up fighting for their countries' interests.” -- THE AID SO FAR COMES FROM THE POLISH BUDGET - MORAWIECKI CONTINUES: “I think we need to look at this differently: we must emphasize that Poland's swift reaction saved a few million jobs. All this was made possible by funds that came exclusively from the Polish state budget, and it's worth remembering that. We don't have new funds from the EU in our accounts yet, but indeed, when it comes to the Recovery Fund we are discussing, the sooner it comes into effect, the better. There's a chance that we'll manage to finalize these plans this autumn, and real, long-awaited aid from the EU will become a fact. We will do everything to make it happen. For Poland and for the Union, this will be the opening of a new chapter in economic history, and for all of us, a huge reason for satisfaction. The adoption of the Recovery Fund will be the culmination of the efforts initiated by President Andrzej Duda. The voice from Poland about the need for an active and ambitious Union has resonated loudly and has been heard.” https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-06-12/premier-morawiecki-dla-polsatnews-pl-ponad-700-mld-zl-z-ue-moze-wesprzec-nasz-budzet/ -- FROM BRUDZIŃSKI IN BRUSSELS TO DEMOBILIZED ACTIVISTS, BUT THE PRESIDENT STILL HAS A LOT OF POLITICAL STRENGTH AND HIS STYLE APPEALS TO THE PROVINCES - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “From Chief of Staff Joachim Brudziński, who in important moments travels to the European Parliament, to demobilized local activists. Is the president himself, with his gaffes (the announcement of subsidies for water retention is considered another one), the weakest link in this campaign? Not necessarily. He still has a lot of political strength; his style appeals to voters, especially in the provinces. Complains are more about various segments of the PiS apparatus and the people responsible for the campaign. The right has usually been strong online. Now it is yielding to Rafał Trzaskowski's efficient online campaign. And questions are being raised about mistakes larger than this or that statement. For instance, at Nowogrodzka Street, they thought of giving Trzaskowski as little time as possible to collect signatures. Meanwhile, the PO candidate's campaign team used this situation for exceptional mobilization of their supporters. A classic example of a foul turning into one's own own goal.” -- THE PRIME MINISTER IS MOST INTERESTED IN DUDA'S VICTORY, KACZYŃSKI STILL BELIEVES IN MORAWIECKI'S ABILITIES - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Of all the factions of United Right, the Prime Minister Morawiecki and his people are most interested in Duda's victory. Not only because the president has so strongly merged with the government's achievements. There is something more. At a crucial moment, when the fate of the May 10 elections hung in the balance, Morawiecki urged Kaczyński to recognize the obvious fact that they could not be held for technical reasons. Failure will be a signal for attacks from all the 'hardliners,' like Zbigniew Ziobro or Beata Szydło – first and foremost against Jarosław Gowin, but immediately after, against the prime minister. Because then, 'we could have won.' On the other side, a realistic assessment of reality is easily replaced by myth. But those who know Kaczyński well say that even if he has doubts about Morawiecki, he still believes in his abilities.” -- THE SHIELDS ARE A MEASURE OF THE PRIME MINISTER'S CAPABILITIES - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “For Kaczyński, the subsequent shields are a measure of the prime minister's team's capabilities. Party activists would not have prepared them. And although during the pandemic, European diplomacy was partially frozen, the PiS leader is convinced that the additional billions of euros for Poland over the next seven EU budget periods are also thanks to this team. Of course, Morawiecki, if he hears such signals, is never sure if the Leader's mood won't change. So, we have rumors from all sides.” -- PLATFORMA IS REBORN, MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MILITANT, A PRESIDENT FROM PLATFORMA WOULD GOVERN WITH THE SENATE THROUGH REFERENDA - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “PO is being reborn, more militant and progressive than ever. For PiS, referenda managed by Rafał Trzaskowski together with the opposition Senate, and especially vetoes, could be a big problem. A president from Platform would also likely resort to the head of state's vague competencies in foreign policy and security, as Lech Kaczyński once did under the PO-PSL government. Only that his overly aggressive policy in this regard could harm the opposition itself. Poles expect cooperation; it's possible that after a series of wars between the two centers of power, Platform would lose subsequent parliamentary elections, and we would face a permanent stalemate.” -- IN CASE OF DEFEAT, EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS ARE RATHER AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO - ZAREMBA QUOTES A KACZYŃSKI COLLEAGUE: “Therefore, there are people in PiS who think that after losing the presidential elections, he would not opt for digging in and surviving. That, as is his habit, he would say: 'Everything or nothing.' And he himself would bring about early parliamentary elections. Even at the cost of losing power. – Characters don't change, but he knows he doesn't have much time left to rule in any form. This is rather an unlikely scenario – reacts one of his colleagues laconically. And adds: – Besides, Andrzej will win. Which, considering the shape of Polish society, is not impossible…” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/306129997-Czy-kampania-Andrzeja-Dudy-jest-pograzona-w-chaosie.html -- PIS HAS NOT ACCEPTED DEFEAT, PRESIDENT DUDA STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR RE-ELECTION - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ AND ANDRZEJ GAJCY ON ONET: “No, PiS has not accepted Andrzej Duda's defeat. The president still has a chance for re-election. However, the situation within the ruling camp is harming him the most, as hostile factions have started to attack each other.” -- STANKIEWICZ AND GAJCY ON SEARCHING FOR CULPRITS IN THE RULING CAMP AND OPPONENTS HUNTING MORAWIECKI: “Since Duda's campaign is going uphill, the search for culprits has begun in the ruling camp. Looking at it coolly, from the perspective of PiS, Jarosław Kaczyński is most to blame, because – despite the urging of hardliners – he did not decide to hold the elections at the end of May. At that time, Duda's approval ratings gave him a certain victory, partly because Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska was the candidate for Platform. However, the realities in PiS are as they are – Kaczyński does not take responsibility for his decisions. In this situation, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has become the target of party hardliners. During party meetings, Joachim Brudziński, Beata Szydło, or Jacek Kurski are almost openly accusing Mateusz Morawiecki and his people of being disloyal to Duda and harming him in the campaign. They even have a list of such situations from recent times.” -- KACZYŃSKI STATED THAT THE CURRENT FORMULA OF UNITED RIGHT HAS COME TO AN END - ONET AUTHORS CONTINUE: “The PiS leader, at one of the meetings with his closest associates, reportedly stated that the current formula of United Right has come to an end. Regardless of whether Duda wins the elections or not, it is necessary – according to Kaczyński – to devise a new formula and possibly also change coalition partners.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-2020-wojna-w-pis-czy-morawiecki-szkodzi-dudzie/fhtr8d3 -- SCHETYNA IS JUST WAITING FOR AN OPPORTUNITY - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF A POTENTIAL TRZASKOWSKI DEFEAT: “Let's assume Duda wins. Everything indicates that in this situation – in the face of further years of PiS rule and its president – a political change may occur in the Senate. Leaders of PO, PSL, and SLD say in unofficial conversations that they might lose a few senators, likely from Platform. And then PiS will regain control of the Senate. After all, Jarosław Kaczyński dreams of it being like it was before – in the previous term, PiS senators, who had a majority, passed laws in dozens of hours, and today it takes dozens of days. A lost presidency and the loss of the Senate could shake Platform. Ex-leader Grzegorz Schetyna, pushed to the sidelines, is just waiting for an opportunity to strike back at his successor Borys Budka.” -- THEN THINGS WILL REALLY GET GOING - STANKIEWICZ ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF DUDA'S DEFEAT: “And what if Trzaskowski wins? Then things can really get going. United Right might crack, causing PiS to lose its fragile majority in the Sejm, which guarantees support for the government. Of course, there are rumors about the opposition regaining power. It's not even about a cabinet composed of PO, PSL, Lewica, and Konfederacja, which would be arithmetically possible but politically unrealistic, with the support of defectors from PiS. The most intriguing are the stories about a crack within PiS so deep that defectors could form a government with PO and PSL. Supporters of PiS's hard line – such as Joachim Brudziński, Beata Szydło, Zbigniew Ziobro, or Jacek Kurski – cast suspicion not only on Jarosław Gowin. They even look suspiciously at Mateusz Morawiecki, whose loyalty to PiS they don't believe in. The fact is that both within PiS and on the opposition side, an assessment is underway of how many MPs in the PiS club actually belong to Morawiecki.” -- THEY ARE HUNTING KACZYŃSKI AGAIN, THEY WANT TO KILL HIM - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Enough! We must call things by their name: they are hunting Kaczyński again. Physically, literally. They want to kill him again. Shame on Michnik. And it is being done by the direct media entourage of Rafał Trzaskowski. In the cynical interest of 'pushing' a narrative that (in a way I also reject) was introduced by an artist promoting his album. How did it go? 'There is no hatred in me either…'” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/504389-trzeba-nazwac-rzecz-po-imieniu-znowu-poluja-na-kaczynskiego -- JACEK KARNOWSKI BELIEVES THAT IF TRZASKOWSKI WINS, THE LGBT MOVEMENT WILL ATTEMPT TO PACIFY POLAND: “All of this is understandable, however: it's purely about tactics. If Trzaskowski wins, and the government changes later, the LGBT ideology will attempt to pacify Poland. This will mean what it means everywhere: the end of true freedom, increasing suffocation, and growing paranoia. Because we already know one thing: this is an ideology that is not satisfied by any concessions, no matter how far-reaching. The ultimate goal is always the elimination of all those who think differently from public space.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/504492-pawel-rabiej-nieopatrznie-ujawnil-nowy-plan-srodowisk-lgbt -- IS THERE ANYTHING REAL IN TRZASKOWSKI - ASKS MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The whole matter leads to a fundamental question: is there anything real in Rafał Trzaskowski, in this politician, in what he says about himself? We already know that he is not telling the truth about the values he professes. In Warsaw, he is implementing a radical, extremist, coercive project of social re-education according to LGBT ideology, and during the campaign, he evades the issue, presenting himself as a man connected with Polish tradition. Poles face a serious threat. They are not just assembling a paid, twisted electoral clip, a false propaganda spot. Someone wants to deceive Poles on fundamental, essential matters.” -- KARNOWSKI ATTACKS KONFEDERACJA - IT TURNS OUT TO BE PART OF TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMP: “Another such deception is now coming to light. Konfederacja, which has mocked the excessive radicalism of Law and Justice for years, turns out to be part of Trzaskowski's camp!” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/504374-czy-w-rafale-trzaskowskim-jest-cokolwiek-prawdziwego -- THE CHANGE OF PRESIDENT WOULD NOT LEAD TO THE END OF THE WORLD, JUST AS THE ELECTION OF KWAŚNIEWSKI DID NOT MEAN A RETURN TO THE PRL - PROF. ALEKSANDER BOBKO IN CONVERSATION WITH ELIZA OLCZYK: “Well, we've had various presidents. When Aleksander Kwaśniewski won the elections in 1995, I thought it was the end of the world, that the PRL would return. Nothing like that happened. Therefore, I think that this year's victory of someone from the opposition would also not lead to the end of the world. In the current situation, it is more important for the elections to proceed calmly and for their outcome not to be questioned. It is possible that an opposition president would not veto everything received from the government, but would force PiS to do better legislative work. The ruling camp would not be able to send legal blunders to the head of state, 'because our president will sign everything.' Thus, such a president could be an element of political balance. On the other hand, if a president from the opposition, e.g., Rafał Trzaskowski, were to set overthrowing the government as his main goal, which cannot be ruled out, then the political struggle would intensify even more. I do not rule out that destabilization would go so far that early elections would have to be held.” -- PIS HAS DONE A LOT OF GOOD, BUT IT'S A SHAME THAT PARLIAMENTARISM IS A FACADE LIKE IN THE PRL - BOBKO CONTINUES: “In any case, it will not be the end of the world. For now, we have three years of PiS rule ahead of us, which in my opinion has done a lot of good. I still sympathize with this formation. It's just a shame that PiS appropriates many state institutions, that it has turned public television into an informal 'ministry of propaganda.' And that it's a bit like in the PRL – the party directs, the government rules, and parliamentarism is a facade.” -- I WOULDN'T BE ABLE TO SAY WHAT THE OPPOSITION WOULD DO IF IT WON THE ELECTIONS - BOBKO CONTINUES: “PiS decided that there's no point in paying attention to the opposition because there are no partners for dialogue there anyway. Recently, for a moment, it seemed that there might be some agreement concerning the anti-crisis shield, but everything quickly fell apart. On the other hand, I don't see any ideas from the opposition parties about what they would do if they gained power. PiS had an idea for change in 2015, and if someone asked me what the opposition would do if they won the elections, I wouldn't be able to answer.” -- BOBKO HAS NO DOUBTS ABOUT SZUMOWSKI'S HONESTY: “The problem undoubtedly exists. Perhaps it should be regulated somehow, but there is no climate for such a discussion because a political war is being waged, and we are witnessing a shameful witch hunt against Minister Szumowski, whose honesty I have no doubt about.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/306129982-Aleksander-Bobko-Koledzy-patrzyli-na-mnie-jakbym-spadl-z-ksiezyca.html -- EXCERPT FROM THE BOOK BY GAZETA WYBORCZA JOURNALISTS ABOUT JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S BUILDING OF TODAY'S EMPIRE - as written by Iwona Szpala and Agata Kondzińska: “This is a story that Jarosław Kaczyński told Tomasz Grabowski when the political scientist was collecting materials for his doctorate. Even before the Round Table – he added – he realized that he was growing beyond the top opposition figures: – The Solidarity elite, the intelligentsia, who had been abroad, had no political training. Previously, this knowledge was unnecessary, cumbersome. It was better to be well-read in current French literature, philosophy, because that's what was discussed in salons. But to know how a democratic system functions, what the sociological, democratic mechanisms are? That was knowledge for people who dealt with it due to their profession. Like me, for example.” -- THE DOCTORAL STUDENT WHO CONDUCTED AN INTERVIEW WITH KACZYŃSKI IN THE 90S RECALLS HIS WORDS ABOUT THE RABBLE AT THE TIME: “He viewed even his neighbors in detached houses radically even then, which he mentioned in a conversation with Grabowski: 'I live on a small street in Żoliborz, very small, 14 houses, I know everyone by sight. Some houses are inhabited by rabble, formerly connected with the Security Service, with the Citizens' Militia. And all this company in 1990 suddenly started attending church, as families.' For Kaczyński, this was proof that they were trying to adapt to the new times: 'They were reds, now they are blacks, so you have to run to church. And that ended later. I go into the church and see they're not there. So what, should they be pushed against a wall? They are rabble, but... They were incredibly emboldened by this policy.'” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,26027048,jaroslaw-kaczynski-gdybysmy-przyjeli-zalozenia-czysto.html -- I AM DECIDEDLY CLOSER TO WHAT TRZASKOWSKI SAYS - JOLANTA TURCZYNOWICZ-KIERYŁŁO IN CONVERSATION WITH KRZYSZTOF SKÓRZYŃSKI AND ARLETA ZALEWSKA ON TVN24: “I am observing the candidates closely. I haven't made a decision yet. The fight is ongoing, and much can happen until the end. Today, I am decidedly closer to what Trzaskowski says about the need for new solidarity, a united Poland, and strong presidency, than to what President Duda says, who has based his entire campaign on the government's program. Such a campaign does not help the president broaden his support.” -- TURCZYNOWICZ ON THE HOSTILITY FROM SZYDŁO: “Among others, the president, Ms. Beata Szydło, Adam Bielan, and myself. I asked the president to at least briefly mention the campaign team, the concept, and then the campaign manager. That I could be introduced at the end. And suddenly I hear from Ms. Szydło: 'Madam has too long a surname, the president won't remember your surname.'” https://tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/byla-szefowa-kampanii-dudy-dzis-zdecydowanie-blizej-mi-do-trzaskowskiego,275,4819 -- TRUMP GIVES A GIFT TO RUSSIA BY REDUCING THE CONTINGENT IN EUROPE, THERE'S NOTHING TO CELEBRATE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “We gain nothing new, and the weakening of the American contingent in Europe is a problem for us. In case of a military conflict, any help to Poland will come from the West. The fewer forces there are, the later help will arrive. Furthermore, although Russia has not stopped pursuing an aggressive policy towards Ukraine, Trump is giving it a gift by reducing its potential in the region. Above all, the conflict between our two allies – Germany and America – is a trap for us. Foreign policy is too important a matter to be guided by superficial sympathies or initial impulses, according to herd divisions. Therefore, it's better not to conduct it on Twitter. And to consider when to applaud.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/306129992-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Zastanowmy-sie-kiedy-bic-brawo.html -- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON THE CHANGE IN THE ATTITUDE OF THE PIS ENVIRONMENT TOWARDS 1989 - he writes in DGP magazine: “President Andrzej Duda recalled that on that day, as a high school student, he ran around Krakow with leaflets. He stated, incidentally, that some elites wanted to make a deal with the communists, but Poles voted otherwise. This is too much of a mental shortcut – the elites who later created the Democratic Union were working then for the victory of the Solidarity camp. More importantly, the president from PiS is telling us to rejoice in the outcome of the contract elections. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki went even further. In a speech in the Sejm aimed at the opposition during the vote of confidence, he recalled that he boycotted those elections and would behave differently today. Does this have any significance?” -- EARLIER, ONE COULD HAVE HAD THE IMPRESSION THAT PIS WAS DISTANCING ITSELF FROM THE TRADITION OF SOLIDARITY FROM 1989: “Observing previous years, one could have had the impression that PiS had almost renounced the tradition of Solidarity – sitting down at the Round Table and running in partly free elections. That it tries to replace it with the legacy of radical Fighting Solidarity, which, due to the niche nature of this organization, leaves a void. Two years ago, TVP's Wiadomości announced: 'June 4th. Betrayal of the elite.' It was also about the fall of Jan Olszewski's government three years later. But they took care to associate this drastic formulation with both events. Moreover, the legend of the Olszewski government, the only supposedly 'anti-communist change' before PiS rule, is part of the same narrative.” https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1482423,zaremba-historia-solidarnosci-kampania-wyborcza-opinia.html -- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON WHAT TO DO WITH WORKS OF CULTURE THAT ARE PART OF OPPRESSIVE SOCIAL PRACTICES BUT ARE CULTURAL TREASURES - he writes in Krytyka Polityczna: “Instead of removing from public view texts of culture that are products and part of oppressive ideologies and social practices, we rather need critical tools that enable us to confront the fact that great treasures of culture – books, films, paintings, buildings – are often also monuments to cruelty, violence, discrimination, and barbarism. Although adding commentary to HBO's adaptation of 'Gone with the Wind' would not harm it in any way, a private platform cannot replace the work that must primarily be done by the broadly understood system of public education and a truly broad public debate that honestly accounts for the past.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kultura/film/majmurek-przeminelo-z-wiatrem-rasizm/ -- I AM TERRIFIED BY THIS GENERAL OFFENSIVE OF THE WORLD LEFT - PIOTR ZAREMBA ON POLSAT NEWS: “For now, I am terrified by this general offensive of the world left, of which the Polish mutation is, moreover, just a rather mechanical imitator. When TVP added commentary to Paweł Pawlikowski's film 'Ida,' intended to explain the historical context (who killed Jews in Poland), liberals and leftists protested as one. Now, the same commentary on the adaptation of Margaret Mitchell's novel is considered the bare minimum. We almost breathe a sigh of relief: in the end, they only demand this much. And I would always assume in favor of the creator himself. There is no obligation to consider an artist infallible, which doesn't mean he should be dismissed. I also opt for trusting the recipient's reason, who is capable of separating truth from falsehood. To grasp changing historical contexts.” -- ZAREMBA ON CENSORIOUS IMPULSES: “And that not everyone will think the same? But are censorious impulses an effective recipe in free societies? Amazon is already reporting exceptional demand for 'Gone with the Wind.' And we probably won't resort to destroying film copies, burning books, and erasing titles from human consciousness. At least, I hope so.” https://tygodnik.polsatnews.pl/news/2020-06-12/zaufajmy-odbiorcy-piotr-zaremba-o-rewolucji-w-kulturze/ -- POLAND IS A MORE JUST AND EQUAL COUNTRY THAN THE USA - JAN ŚPIEWAK ON POLSAT NEWS: “The Polish police, compared to the American one, are as gentle as lambs. They also fare favorably compared to the French, Spanish, or German police. Cases of brutality do occur, but they are not part of the system. Low unemployment and social transfers mean that no one needs to be beaten to maintain order on the streets. In this sense, Poland is a much safer, more equal, and fairer country than the United States. This does not mean, of course, that the Polish police should not be criticized. The low sentences for the four officers who beat Stachowiak are a warning signal for all of us. In a truly free and just country, there is no room for police brutality. We should demand justice for him and the reopening of the investigation into his murder.” https://tygodnik.polsatnews.pl/news/2020-06-12/zabojstwa-stachowiaka-ifloyda-dwa-oblicza-brutalnosci-policji/ -- PHOTO: Jean-Léon Gérôme, DIOGENES AND DOGS. A French academic painter and sculptor, a Neoclassicist. A large part of his works are heroic exotic and historical stylizations, including Egyptian ones. The French artist is not among the world's most famous painters. His works are known mainly to connoisseurs of art history. One of the master's paintings, largely forgotten, is dedicated to one of the figures of Greek antiquity – Diogenes of Sinope. Despite his radicalism in preaching contempt for life's pleasures and material goods, he became one of the most popular figures of antiquity. His name is associated with the emergence of Cynic philosophy. 'Kynos' in Greek means dog. Cynics called for modesty, living in harmony with nature, and imitating it. In the painting, the barrel in which he lived is surrounded by a pack of dogs. It is known that the Greeks erected a monument to him in the form of a dog. -- 19 years ago, Law and Justice was registered. -- 16 years ago, the first elections to the European Parliament were held in Poland, won by Civic Platform. -- 6 years ago, the so-called wiretapping scandal broke out. -- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Lewandowski, Antoni Szymański, Andrzej Morozowski, SUNDAY: Jarosław Obremski, Dymitr Hirsch, Katarzyna Ramotowska, Karol Gac, Joanna Augustynowska.

Łukasz Mężyk