state of play: 06/01/2020

POLITICAL GAME: Flis: Duda is struggling, Szułdrzyński: PAD capitalized on Trzaskowski's mistake of withdrawing from investments, Wielowieyska: The Civic Coalition candidate is on the rise

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PKW RESOLUTION PUBLISHED, PĘK ON STRIVING TO CHANGE THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE SENATE, DWORCZYK ON JUNE 28 - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/06/01/ -- RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI HELPED ACCIDENT VICTIMS - GŁOS WIELKOPOLSKI: “It was around 6 PM, I was driving on the A2 motorway towards Warsaw. Near Łódź, an accident happened, a car went into the barriers. Shortly after the incident, a van carrying Rafał Trzaskowski turned back to the accident scene. They probably saw the whole event and decided to help - recounts Mr. Paweł Schmidt, our reader. (...) Rafał Trzaskowski and his colleagues traveling with him pulled the injured from the wrecked car. 'Trzaskowski himself carried the infant who was in the crashed car for several dozen minutes,' says Paweł Schmidt”. https://gloswielkopolski.pl/rafal-trzaskowski-pomagal-w-akcji-ratunkowej-po-wypadku-na-autostradzie-a2/ar/c1-15000647? -- THE FIGHT WILL BE CLOSE BUT DUDA HAS AN UPHILL BATTLE - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “The fight will be close, the chances are fifty-fifty. We'll see who makes more mistakes. Certainly, in all recent elections, the anti-PiS bloc had more support than PiS, counting all the votes. President Andrzej Duda definitely has an uphill battle. And the question is, is there any other strategy than attacking opponents and waiting for their mistakes?” -- THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THE RULING PARTY'S TACTIC ABOUT A PRESIDENT FROM THE SAME CAMP HAS A REAL IMPACT ON VOTER DECISIONS - FLIS CONTINUES: “This is the narrative that if someone other than Duda wins, Poland will face harmful conflict. Attempts to convey this message in the 2018 local elections proved entirely unconvincing to voters. There is no evidence that voters, when choosing mayors, were guided by the idea that it is better for the mayor to be from the same political camp as the prime minister. The second argument is that in 2015, this did not hinder President Andrzej Duda's victory. PiS did not have allies then. Voters voted for Andrzej Duda against the government. I understand that this tactic is the ruling party's point of view, the only question is whether it has a real impact on voters' decisions. The fact that people declare in polls that they do not want conflict does not predetermine it yet.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/305319937-Prof-Jaroslaw-Flis-Prezydent-Andrzej-Duda-ma-pod-gorke.html -- I DO NOT INTEND TO BE THE PRESIDENT OF TOTAL OPPOSITION - RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH SE: “People want someone independent who will keep an eye on the authorities. And I do not intend to be the president of total opposition! Where necessary, where the government wants to strengthen the state with its initiatives, I will cooperate with it. But I will not allow the state to be appropriated and independent institutions to be destroyed.” -- FOR AT LEAST A FEW YEARS, WE SHOULD ABANDON GIGANTOMANIA, INVESTMENTS MUST BE SENSIBLE, FOCUS ON PROJECTS CLOSE TO PEOPLE - TRZASKOWSKI IN SE EXPLAINS HIS POSITION: “In the situation Poland finds itself in today, we should, for at least a few years, abandon gigantomaniacs and the construction of the Central Communication Port and the Vistula Spit canal, because investments must be sensible. Building for billions of zlotys without any real plans for the largest airport in the world, at a time when Poland needs a series of other important infrastructure projects, is simply irrational. This needs to be postponed and we should focus on completing projects that are close to people. In Pomerania and Kuyavia, two important expressways, the S-6 and S-10, were removed from government plans. And residents truly need these. And this genuinely drives economic growth, not gigantomania, which has nothing to do with rational economics.” -- I WILL TAKE CARE OF PARTNERSHIP RELATIONS AND MINORITY RIGHTS, BUT OPENING THE ABORTION ISSUE WOULD ONLY END IN A FIGHT DURING THE CAMPAIGN - TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES: “I want to take care of partnership relations and I want to care for women's rights and defend minorities against manifestations of hatred. However, I am not in favor of tightening abortion laws. That is clear. Today, during the election campaign, opening the debate on abortion would only end in a political brawl. I also refrain from saying whether I will veto law X or Y, because the devil is always in the details. Today, people are living with fundamental problems - whether they will still have jobs, whether their loved ones are safe…” https://www.se.pl/warszawa/wybory-2020-trzaskowski-dla-se-panstwo-pis-jest-slabe-wywiad-aa-9ii8-a6Ja-sjrp.html -- THE RULING CAMP CAPITALIZED ON TRZASKOWSKI'S MISTAKE OF WITHDRAWING FROM INVESTMENT PROJECTS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “But his campaign staff also have their aces up their sleeves. On Saturday, the Prime Minister and the President strongly emphasized the benefits of cooperation between these centers of power. This stems from the fear of a part of the electorate – including the opposition – that if someone other than Duda wins the election, chaos and an even harsher war will ensue in politics. By announcing a PLN 30 billion public investment fund plan at the Vistula Spit, the ruling camp exploited the mistake that was Trzaskowski's declaration to withdraw from these projects. For some voters, grand plans in the style of Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski are an element of building national pride.” -- ON THE OTHER HAND, TRZASKOWSKI PROPOSED A COMPLETELY NEW LANGUAGE FOR DISCUSSING PUBLIC AFFAIRS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “On the other hand, Trzaskowski proposed a completely new language for discussing politics and public affairs on Saturday during a speech in Poznań. He managed to say a few good words about Lech Kaczyński, praise the 500+ program, and admit that his party's mistake was underestimating social programs, and even opposing them. The slogans of new solidarity, rebuilding community, or presidential cooperation with the government were intended to weaken the message of Andrzej Duda's campaign staff, and at the same time remove the 'mouthpiece of the ruling camp' label attributed to the Mayor of Warsaw. In this way, both sides defined the political dispute for the coming days and weeks. After this weekend, one thing is certain. The election outcome is not yet decided, and the fight for individual votes will continue until the last moment.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/305319952-Szuldrzynski-Kampania-daleka-od-rozstrzygniecia.html?cid -- BIELAN AND KURSKI MUST HAVE HAD SOUR FACES - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “TVP President Jacek Kurski sat in front of the television on Saturday to watch Rafał Trzaskowski's speech in Poznań. The spokesperson for President Duda's campaign, Adam Bielan, probably watched it in another room, because the gentlemen don't get along. But both must have had sour faces, because the speech was well-constructed and delivered. And it responded well to the message that Andrzej Duda's campaign staff had recently prepared. And this message was conveyed in the latest PiS spot: Poles want good cooperation between the president and the prime minister, not arguments and chaos. Especially during a crisis and epidemic. Trzaskowski neutralized this.” -- PERHAPS THIS IS THE BREAKTHROUGH MOMENT WHEN CAMPAIGN STAFF ARE THINKING NOT ONLY ABOUT DUDA'S CAMPAIGN BUT ABOUT THEIR OWN FATE AND BUILDING A STRATEGY OF BLAMING OTHERS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “The Poznań speech by the Civic Coalition candidate might have contributed to the frustration of Andrzej Duda's campaign staff. The current president still has a great chance of winning the election, but the Civic Coalition candidate is on the rise. I can picture Bielan at Nowogrodzka, in front of Jarosław Kaczyński, railing against Jacek Kurski for TVP attacking Trzaskowski's underage son. Because if they continue campaigning like this, they are more likely to evoke sympathy for the Mayor of Warsaw than to lower his ratings. This could be the breakthrough moment when campaign staff think not only about Andrzej Duda's campaign but also about their own fate in case of defeat and build a strategy of blaming others for this failure.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25990424,bielan-i-kurski-musieli-miec-kwasne-miny-co-wiemy-po-przemowieniu.html -- DUDA IS BEING CHASED LIKE KOMOROWSKI - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Then, a month before the election, the difference between Komorowski was 17 percentage points. This is slightly more than Duda's current lead over Trzaskowski (13 percentage points). Of course, no conclusions can be drawn from this, and certainly not that Duda will definitely lose. But the drops in polls are causing PiS to tremble at the thought that Duda has stepped into Komorowski's shoes, meaning he is transforming from a sure winner into a great loser.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25990596,scigany-duda-sciagajacy-trzaskowski.html -- THIS IS A BREAKTHROUGH SPEECH BY THE CIVIC COALITION CANDIDATE FOR SEVERAL REASONS - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI AND SEBASTIAN KLAUZIŃSKI IN OKO: “This is a breakthrough speech by the Civic Coalition candidate (for candidate) for several reasons: - for the first time, a PO politician clearly and without any 'buts' stated that the 500+ program is 'inalienable', - for the first time, a PO politician admitted that the social diagnosis made by PiS in 2015 was correct, - for the first time, a PO politician stated that he was proud of some of President Lech Kaczyński's actions. This indicates that Rafał Trzaskowski has effectively already begun his campaign for the second round of the elections. Is this justified? Most likely, yes.” -- DUDA WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE - OKO CONTINUES: “Andrzej Duda was more aggressive on Saturday. Where Trzaskowski softened the edge of the PiS vs. PO dispute, the president tried to reignite it. From the construction site of the Vistula Spit canal, he argued that PiS's large investments are the only chance to overcome the economic crisis and maintain jobs. He attacked Trzaskowski for wanting to halt investments. Duda was supported by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who called the president a 'great leader' and the investments - Duda's Plan. In the style of the Marshall Plan and Roosevelt's New Deal.” https://oko.press/raport-z-kampanii-trzaskowski-przygotowuje-sie-na-ii-ture/ -- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ'S CALM - KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN GW: “And suddenly everything collapsed, and Kosiniak's sailboat caught a calm. Although the party's activists pretend not to see it, reality is cruel to their candidate. The words of Deputy Marshal Piotr Zgorzelski, who repeated the popular mantra on TVN 24 in the program 'Kawa na ławę' on May 24, that their candidate has the greatest chance of defeating Andrzej Duda in the second round, sound like a joke today. However, polls give Kosiniak no hope for the second round. He is far behind the Civic Platform representative, and in some polls, he is far behind all other significant candidates in the running. Meanwhile, the party's activists are so attached to their vision of winning the Palace, it has gone to their heads so much that they cannot look at the situation realistically.” -- DOES HE STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR THE BEST RESULT FOR A PEOPLE'S PARTY CANDIDATE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS? - NASZKOWSKA CONTINUES IN GW: “Kosiniak still has a chance to go down in history and achieve the best result for a PSL candidate in presidential elections since 1989. So far, the record belonged to Jarosław Kalinowski, who received over 6% in 2000. Kosiniak-Kamysz has the opportunity to beat this result.” -- SADNESS IN THE RANKS - AN ANONYMOUS PSL ACTIVIST IN NASZKOWSKA'S ARTICLE: “The leader himself might be liked in cities and get many votes here, but when the alternative in the form of Trzaskowski appeared, urban voters immediately turned away from Kosiniak. And again, behind the PSL leader is mainly rural and district Poland. – There's been a bit of sadness in our ranks – admits one of the activists.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25978950,flauta-kosiniaka-kamysza-traci-przez-rezygnacje-kidawy-blonskiej.html -- TRZASKOWSKI SPOKE WISELY AND WELL IN POZNAŃ - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “Trzaskowski spoke wisely and well in Poznań. He recalled the heroic Lech Kaczyński in Tbilisi (we were all proud of him then), announced that Poles need a president who will not allow division. He will be a partner, not in service to power. Power that, moreover, has authoritarian tendencies. Some will say: words, words, words… Indeed, language can bear many lofty words. And these will say very little about their author. If words did not carry falsehood, God would not have given Moses the eighth commandment on Mount Horeb. So, one can say anything. But there is something in speaking that has a hard-to-define potential for credibility: a deceitful politician is easily recognized.” -- TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN SO FAR GIVES SOME HOPE THAT HE WILL RISE ABOVE PARTY DIVISIONS - CHRABOTA CONTINUES: “Is Trzaskowski lying when he says he won't be total opposition? We will find out. I will carefully listen to his future speeches because, as a citizen, I do not want a president who, by principle, will spit in PiS's pot. A president, whoever he may be, should participate in sensible reform of the country, support good ideas, and fight against foolish ones. Until recently, I thought that party obsession ruled out such a model of presidency. However, Trzaskowski's campaign so far gives some hope. Perhaps someone has emerged who, in the interest of Poles, will rise above party divisions? I will watch him closely.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/305319954-Boguslaw-Chrabota-Co-ugra-Rafal-Trzaskowski.html -- MAŁGORZATA MANOWSKA ON TAKING A STAND IF POLITICIANS' STATEMENTS DAMAGE THE AUTHORITY OF JUDGES - AS SHE SAYS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “I will certainly not participate in political debates, meaning whether the government is right or the opposition is right. Absolutely not. I will provide opinions on legislative acts, and speak publicly when the debate concerns the Supreme Court and common courts. Especially when politicians' or journalists' statements damage the authority of the courts.” -- THERE IS A PLAN THAT GIVES HOPE FOR NORMALIZATION OF THE SITUATION - MANOWSKA CONTINUES: “For now, I will wait to see what decisions the presidents of the individual chambers make in this matter. We had a conversation on the first day, which I assess as very good. We talked honestly and decided that we would try to solve these problems together. Similar conversations will take place without the participation of the media and politicians. I will not reveal the content, but there is a plan that gives hope for normalization of the situation.” -- I INTEND TO BUILD A THICK WALL BETWEEN THE SUPREME COURT AND POLITICS - MANOWSKA CONTINUES IN RZ: “It is impossible to completely cut it off. There are budgetary and social matters, which depend on political power. We will present a budget project that must be accepted. Regarding other types of connections, I intend to build a thick wall between the Supreme Court and politics.” https://www.rp.pl/Sedziowie-i-sady/305319944-Malgorzata-Manowska-I-Prezes-Sadu-Najwyzszego-w-wywiadzie-dla-Rzeczpospolitej.html -- ELECTORAL LIFTING OF RESTRICTIONS - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Then one might think that perhaps it is again about the presidential elections. There is a chance that easing restrictions will improve social moods, which will be favorable to Andrzej Duda. It must be admitted that the electoral interpretation seems very plausible, but such an accusation would be very serious – one would have to assume that PiS is playing with the lives and health of citizens to increase Andrzej Duda's chances in the election.” -- SAWCZUK WRITES ABOUT THE SWEDISH MODEL IN TURBO VERSION: “Prime Minister Morawiecki said a few days ago that restrictions can be eased because '80 percent of beds are free and waiting for COVID patients.' It does not follow from this fact alone that the beds should be filled with patients. Morawiecki rightly points out that Poland has fewer cases of coronavirus infection, as well as fewer deaths than many other countries. This is a reason for satisfaction. However, the government's chaotic communication simply discourages people from taking precautions, as if the epidemic were already over.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/06/01/sawczuk-w-poniedzialek-luzujemy-obostrzenia-ale-pandemia-wciaz-trwa/ -- KINGA DUNIN ON WHAT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES READ (OR DON'T READ) - she writes in Krytyka: “What did I find out? Duda reads Sienkiewicz aloud to Poles, and spent PLN 38,000 on bookmarks. Hołownia writes. But he probably read Ajar and Romain Gary at some point, if someone doesn't remember, it's the same noble figure. Biedroń's favorite writer – information from before the Nobel Prize – is Olga Tokarczuk, he claims to have read everything. Trzaskowski has a huge library, reads in many languages, a lot and passionately – but it's not really clear what, apart from numerous biographies of Stalin and Hitler. The last information about Bosak's reading, which I found, dates back over a dozen years and indicates that he has not read Gombrowicz because he was not engaged by it. Kosiniak-Kamysz – no results. However, Mateusz Morawiecki (not running, but let's add him) declared in March last year that he had not read any books in the past year. As for new releases, we probably still have to rely mainly on Obama. Especially since local candidates, even when they mention some titles, never say what they actually found in them.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kultura/czytaj-dalej/kinga-dunin-czyta/spowiedz-hana-solo-wydech/ -- CEZARY STYPUŁKOWSKI ON NEW BANK SERVICES - HANDLING OFFICIAL MATTERS THROUGH THEM - in conversation with Mikołaj Kunica in Business Insider: “Many everyday activities require fast money flow, and we provide that. The banking channel is also used for handling various official matters through the service of identity verification via bank account. Public funds, including those from the PFR Financial Shield, also flow to companies this way. Additionally, the offer, scope of services, and products we offer to clients are incomparably larger than 10-12 years ago. For all this, banks must charge fees to earn and finance this infrastructure.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/finanse/makroekonomia/sektor-bankowy-a-pandemia-koronawirusa-prezes-mbanku-cezary-stypulkowski-wywiad/ -- END OF GOVERNMENTS' MONOPOLY ON SPACE FLIGHTS - WOJCIECH BRZEZIŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “But the date of May 30, 2020, also marks something else: the end of governments' monopoly on space flights. Musk has just created the first space airline in history and is accepting reservations. He already has nine planned flights, two of which will be fully private: in the second half of 2021, Space Adventures (already known for servicing space tourists) will send four clients on a five-day flight aboard Dragon. Apparently, even Tom Cruise would like to shoot the first feature-length film in Earth's orbit. After Dragon's launch, this plan is no longer a complete 'mission: impossible’.” -- PHOTO. Dogana and San Giorgio Maggiore in Venice, William Turner, National Gallery of Art, Washington DC. -- ABOUT VENICE IN A REVIEW OF BEATA JANOWSKA'S BOOK, 'Wanderings Through Time', publ. Helion Photo -- IN ADDITION GW ALE HISTORIA - writes Włodzimierz Kalicki: “Perhaps the most fascinating is the conversation with Prof. Halina Manikowska about the creation and consolidation of Venice. Prof. Manikowska passionately recounts how ingenious and complex, and incidentally costly, an undertaking it was to build on Venice's marshy sands. First, medieval caissons were constructed from wooden logs and stones: watertight, deeply submerged walls cut off the influx of seawater to the isolated area. Then, the area was drained, and they waited for the water receding through the ground to push it upwards. Then came the time to drive solid, stabilizing piles into it and to construct a flat lattice of tree trunks above them, capable of supporting the weight of even multi-story, wooden, and often brick and stone buildings. For example – churches. These ingenious structures have, for centuries, steadfastly held the mighty Venetian buildings on unstable ground essentially wrested from the sea.” -- 17 YEARS AGO Donald Tusk became the chairman of Civic Platform. -- BIRTHDAYS: Kamila Baranowska, Anita Czupryn, Wiesław Szczepański, Grzegorz Pietruczuk, Gwidon Wójcik, Zbigniew Gryglas, Tadeusz Zieliński, Tosia Kamińska (turns 18).

Łukasz Mężyk