state of play: 05/30/2020

POLITICAL GAME STATE: Trzaskowski Must Paradoxically Assure He Won't Overthrow Morawiecki, But Rather Protect Him from PiS 'Red Guards'; PiS Politician in GW: Part of PO Voters Reject Confrontation; Wielowieyska: PO is Back in the Game

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRESIDENT ON AN AMBITIOUS NATION AND AMBITIOUS INVESTMENTS, PRIME MINISTER, PRIME MINISTER ON POLAND BECOMING A HUGE CONSTRUCTION SITE, TRZASKOWSKI APPEALS FOR FULLY DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS AND WILL DELIVER HIS CREDO IN POZNAŃ AT 4 PM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/30/ -- PIS IN A NEW SPOT CONTRASTS THE COHERENT INTRODUCTION OF SOCIAL PROJECTS WITH OPPOSITION CHAOS: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/30/praca-nie-klotnie-najnowszy-przekaz-pis-najwazniejsza-jest-wspolpraca-w-sytuacjach-kryzysowych-gdy-liczy-sie-kazdy-dzien-by-ratowac-miejsca-pracy-by-panstwo-moglo-sprawnie-dzialac-co-ma/ -- A PIS POLITICIAN ON SURVEYS WHERE PART OF PO VOTERS REJECT THE VISION OF A BRAWL - AS REPORTED BY AGATA KONDZIŃSKA AND IWONA SZPALA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: "We will strengthen the message about Andrzej Duda as the politician who is the sole guarantor of agreement with the ruling party, and Poles need calm after the pandemic. Of course, there is a segment of PO voters who want political conflict in the country, and a president from another camp means the end of PiS rule for them, but we have data showing that a significant group of PO's electorate rejects confrontation. And that's who we want to reach – says someone from Jarosław Kaczyński's inner circle." -- THE WARRIOR QUALITIES THAT ARE CURRENTLY BOOSTING TRZASKOWSKI ARE DRAGGING HIM DOWN IN THE SECOND ROUND - THE GAZETA WYBORCZA JOURNALISTS CONTINUE TO REPORT ON PIS STRATEGY: "According to our interviewee, Trzaskowski is the ideal opponent for Duda in this strategy. – The second round is mainly a plebiscite 'for' or 'against' the government. A non-partisan Hołownia or a smiling and conciliatory Kosiniak-Kamysz would be tougher competitors than the rebel and warrior Trzaskowski. It's easier for us to fit him into the PiS vs. PO dichotomy, the constant brawling narrative – he explains. As we hear, there is a conviction at Nowogrodzka [PiS headquarters] that the warrior traits of PO, which are currently his advantages and are building support, will start to drag him down in the final stretch of the campaign. – This election can be won – assesses our interviewee." -- KACZYŃSKI BLAMED STRUCTURES FOR WEAK ACTIVITY - THE NEWSPAPER JOURNALISTS CONTINUE TO REPORT: "An outburst occurred when Jarosław Kaczyński left for a meeting outside Warsaw. – He concluded that there are too few posters and election banners for Andrzej Duda in the regions, and they should have been up since the May campaign – we hear. – He blamed the structures, scolded the regional leaders, they scolded the district leaders, and a general party quarrel erupted. That's why they are starting the distribution of election materials. There's an alert to immediately enter the campaign when it officially begins." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25987039,andrzej-duda-w-ostrym-cieniu-mgly.html -- DUDA RESEMBLES KOMOROWSKI MORE THAN THE DYNAMIC YOUTH OF 2015 - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: "The situation with PiS, with which President Duda is inextricably linked, is somewhat similar to the situation in 2007. The party clearly shows fatigue from power, internal divisions are growing, and the constant wars with judges, teachers, the European Union, and creeping scandals mean that a large portion of voters have had enough. Andrzej Duda is no longer that dynamic young man who defeated Bronisław Komorowski. Today, he seems to resemble Komorowski more, overwhelmed by power, reciting party propaganda formulas and paralyzed by the very thought that he might lose." -- PARADOXICALLY, TRZASKOWSKI MUST SHOW THAT HE WILL NOT WANT TO OVERTHROW MORAWIECKI'S GOVERNMENT, BUT RATHER PROTECT IT FROM THE PiS 'RED GUARDS' - WROŃSKI CONTINUES: "Paradoxically, Trzaskowski, if he wants to count on the broadest possible electorate, must convince Poles that he does not want to overthrow Mateusz Morawiecki's government, and indeed, he will protect it from the PiS 'red guards'. Despite the combative moods in KO [Civic Coalition] circles, the entire society cannot be encouraged to vote for Trzaskowski with the vision of dismantling the government and striving for early elections." -- TRZASKOWSKI IS HELPED BY DISCRIMINATION FROM PIS - WROŃSKI CONTINUES: "Paradoxically, the short deadline set for PO to collect signatures for its candidate and the obstacles placed in their way may not only further mobilize the usually sluggish party but also the centrist voters, because the public usually cheers for the underdog who is discriminated against by judges or competition organizers." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25987227,rafal-trzaskowski-i-efekt-tuska.html -- PO POLITICIANS BELIEVE KAMIŃSKI'S AMENDMENT WAS MEANT TO HARM TRZASKOWSKI AND HELP KOSINIAK - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: "According to many PO politicians, Kamiński's action was not so much out of concern for the constitutionality of the electoral procedure as it was calculated to create confusion in the minds of PO voters: maybe the vote on June 28th is not legal, maybe it's better to stay home? PSL candidate Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is weakening in the polls, and the demobilization of PO voters could help him a bit, at least so that Kosiniak's result isn't a catastrophe." -- TRZASKOWSKI HAS RECOVERED LOSSES SO FAR; ONLY ABOVE 30% CAN WE TALK ABOUT A BREAKTHROUGH - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: "Trzaskowski is on an upward trend in the polls, which is extremely important as it gives hope to voters. It mobilizes volunteers and supporters of this candidacy. But looking at these polls without emotion, one must admit that a result around 27% is no revelation. These are simply the ratings of PO in party polls and Kidawa-Błońska's ratings at the beginning of the previous campaign. Trzaskowski has only recovered losses so far. Only when he crosses 30% in several polls can we talk about a breakthrough." -- DUDA IS WEAKENING BECAUSE TURNOUT IS GROWING, BUT HIS IMAGE IS TRAGIC - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: "Now, as turnout is growing, Duda is weakening. Not because he has drastically lost voters, but precisely because of the increasing turnout. However, his image is tragic, as news headlines of portals only show that Duda is again having a worse result, and few people analyze the fact that this is related to more and more people declaring their participation in the elections." -- THE CIVIC PLATFORM IS BACK IN THE GAME - WIELOWIEYSKA'S CONCLUSION: "Trzaskowski faces a tremendous task, and his campaign team must come up with many more ideas like the one with the financial declaration if he wants to win. Andrzej Duda still has the greatest chance of winning and is the favorite. The presidential campaign team is a dangerous opponent for PO. But one thing is certain today: the Civic Platform is back in the game, even though it seemed like it would drown any moment." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25986249,platforma-nie-utonela.html -- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON PSL AND THE LEFT WANTING TO OUTWAIT TRZASKOWSKI'S FORTUNE THROUGH A SENATE AMENDMENT - ON POLSAT'S WEBSITE: "The Senate plays a delaying role. The political reasons behind it are amusing. Initially, PSL and the Left, along with PiS, were rushing things. They were frightened by Rafał Trzaskowski's rapid poll expansion, pushing Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Robert Biedroń into the shadows. Now this segment of the opposition has suddenly changed its mind. Initially, they wanted to cut off Trzaskowski's escape route from the opposition peloton; now they would prefer to wait him out, hoping for a collapse of his good run in late summer and autumn. That's why the Deputy Speakers of the Senate from these two parties submitted the relevant amendment." -- ZAREMBA ON GIERTYCH'S NONSENSICAL THESIS - GRODZKI DREAMED OF PRETENDING TO BE PRESIDENT FOR A MOMENT: "Roman Giertych formulated a nonsensical thesis that the president ending his term could be replaced by the Marshal of the Senate. He could only do this if the Marshal of the Sejm resigned from the role of interim head of state. But Grodzki was supposed to be concerned with this imaginary vision. And dream of pretending to be president for a moment. If this is true, the infantilization of our public life is even deeper than we thought yesterday. PiS shot itself in the foot by insisting on technically impossible May elections, with postal voting as the main method. Now the opposition is aiming at its own knee. And putting its finger on the trigger." -- PERHAPS PART OF THE VOTERS ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO WARNINGS ABOUT A PRESIDENT WARRING WITH THE GOVERNMENT - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: "Interestingly, there is a conviction in the ruling camp that the rapidly growing Trzaskowski is Duda's dream opponent. Because he will eliminate Kosiniak and the recently growing Szymon Hołownia, and then he won't win in the second round himself. And each of the others would have had a greater chance – paradox of electoral arithmetic. These might be rational calculations, supported by detailed research. Which indicate that the group of undecided voters is susceptible to warnings about a president warring with the government. Trzaskowski is most strongly cast in this role." -- WE ARE LEARNING TO MANIPULATE EVERYTHING AND RELATIVIZE EVERYTHING - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: "This is politics understood as a game. On the other hand, in terms of political culture, the ruling right was recently rightly accused of legal twists. For instance, preparing elections according to procedures not yet passed by parliament. Today's strained interpretations of the constitution practiced by the opposition, even with the participation of distinguished legal authorities, serve a similar role. We are learning to manipulate everything and relativize everything. Unfortunately." https://tygodnik.polsatnews.pl/news/2020-05-29/naciagane-interpretacje-zaremba-o-politycznej-grze-wokol-wyborow/ -- KURSKI IS LITERALLY HANGING ON THE PHONE WITH KACZYŃSKI - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: "Kurski's appointment is meant to show that even if the ruling right retreats on one front, it hardens on another. Of course, there are other reasons behind this return. Kurski managed to convince Jarosław Kaczyński that only he would lead Duda's television campaign dynamically. Behind his 'expressive' language lies the offensive of the radical wing of the camp: Beata Szydło, Ryszard Terlecki, and especially the Ziobro group, who openly or secretly contest Prime Minister Morawiecki's line. Above all, Kaczyński's own tastes are behind him. As a humble board advisor for the last two months, Kurski has been briefing the president daily on the details of subsequent propaganda moves. They were literally hanging on the phone." -- CONSPIRACY THEORIES LIKE FROM ONE OF LEM'S ROBOT FAIRY TALES: "Media close to the 'good change' are formulating conspiracy hypotheses. This is supposed to be a provocation by the old team to break up the public station to pave the way for a private, currently online, radio station of the old 'Trójka' stars. Such scenarios are reminiscent of Stanisław Lem's fairy tales. The king, due to a prophecy that his relatives would conspire against him, had them arrested, and then the family conspiracy truly arose. Following similar logic, right-wing politicians and commentators accuse Jarosław Gowin of conspiring with the opposition. Even though at the very moment he dared to have his own opinion on the election date, he began to be pushed out of the ruling camp." -- AFTER ALL, THE NARRATIVE ABOUT THE FORMER APOLITICAL NATURE OF 'TRÓJKA' IS PREYING ON PUBLIC IGNORANCE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: "And yet, the narrative about the former apolitical 'Trójka' [Polish Radio 3] is preying on public ignorance. A return to party nomenclature is not an invention of the right. One doesn't even need to go back to the establishment of many 'Trójka' veterans in the PRL era. The times of the infamous SLD-PSL-UW media coalition, which controlled public television and radio from 1994 to 2005, suffice. A journalist acquaintance of mine headed the commentary department on the recommendation of PO, which took over the role of the Freedom Union when it failed to enter parliament. This division of leadership positions among party-approved journalists was an open secret." -- ZAREMBA CITES AN ANECDOTE ABOUT MONIKA OLEJnik: "Once, a politician from the Freedom Union tried to convince the author of this text that Monika Olejnik, one of the most biased and aggressive journalists, was the epitome of objectivity. Why? Because she says what he himself thinks." -- ZAREMBA ON THE CONTROL EXERCISED BY KACZYŃSKI OVER EVERYTHING - SOMETIMES ON THE VERGE OF PARALYZING INSTITUTIONS: "The model is the control exercised over all public institutions by Jarosław Kaczyński himself. It was in his office at Nowogrodzka that very low positions in state-owned companies, including media, were filled. Moreover, it was there that the decision was made whether Roman Polański could stage a play in the TV Theatre (ultimately, the project did not materialize). A parody of this control became Czabański's meticulous, daily oversight of public radio. He, in turn, shaped the leadership model for subsequent presidents of this institution. Lawyer Andrzej Rogoyski, who convened meetings all the time, or his frightened successor Agnieszka Kamińska, tried to decide on the minutest details of programs. Sometimes on the verge of paralyzing the institution." -- THE ONLY SIN THE AUTHORITIES FORGIVE IS OVERZEALOUSNESS - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: "Within the current ruling camp, one sin is most often forgiven. It is precisely overzealousness. There is no material on Kurski's television that would cause concern, including the erasure of the Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity heart from the clothing of a guest accidentally appearing on camera. Nor is there any 'over-the-top' statement from Kurski himself in the eyes of PiS politicians. For years, Krystyna Pawłowicz or Dominik Tarczyński functioned on a similar principle. President Czabański is more cautious than Kurski, speaking in a tone of self-irony rather than bravado. (...) In the end, he inadvertently helped launch a song mocking the president. Kaczyński is dissatisfied with the turn of events. But can an overzealous official be 'convicted' in such a system?" -- THE OPPOSITION WILL FIND ITS HOLECKAS - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: "The opposition, when it takes power, will either dismantle these behemoths piece by piece, or find its own Danuta Holeckas or Michał Adamczyks. Perhaps even its own propaganda banner specialists. Let's recall the participation of platformer TVP in the 2015 election campaign. And its attack on the new government. From what is happening today at Powstańców Square in Warsaw, it only differed in scale. Against this background, 'Trójka' is something of an exception. But for how long?" https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/305299999-PiS-i-media-Reczne-sterowanie-donosy-i-nadgorliwosc.html -- JACEK ŻAKOWSKI ON THE "ALLIANCE OF PIS WITH THE SARIS" - WRITES IN WP: "We didn't have a real epidemic in March, April, or May, so we will have one in June. Specifically, in the second half of June, when the elections are supposed to take place. Unlike before, this will not be a coincidental convergence. The government must know this will happen. Why does it need this? There is no single answer to this question. The first impression is that Jarosław Kaczyński is looking for a good pretext to, at the last minute – if Andrzej Duda continues to plummet in the polls – declare a state of natural disaster, which automatically extends the president's term and postpones the elections for 90 days after the state of emergency ends. This would be like an atomic bomb." -- TO DECLARE AN EPIDEMIC WHEN TRZASKOWSKI'S STAR FADES - ŻAKOWSKI CONTINUES: "Why? According to the constitution, a state of natural disaster lasts as long as the government wishes and as long as the parliamentary majority agrees, meaning in today's reality – as long as President Jarosław Kaczyński desires. If, due to the relaxation of social distancing rules, infections significantly increase, PiS will be able to declare a state of natural disaster lege artis and postpone the elections until Rafał Trzaskowski's star fades, because the novelty effect will have passed." https://magazyn.wp.pl/opinie/artykul/sojusz-pis-u-z-sarsem-opinia -- FRAGMENT OF A CONVERSATION BETWEEN KRZYSZTOF SKÓRZYŃSKI AND ARLETA ZALEWSKA WITH BORYS BUDKA: “But it smells in here! Cigars. Yours? Is that a joke? Whose else? The previous team's. We'll have to replace the carpets to get rid of this smell. I just don't have time to do it.” -- I AM GRATEFUL TO GOWIN - BUDKA TELLS ZALEWSKA AND SKÓRZYŃSKI: "Of course, I am grateful to Gowin, and I say this publicly. I'll go further: if we had followed the logic of some of my opposition colleagues, shouting under the AK monument that one should not talk to 'Kaczyński's envoy,' we would now have President Andrzej Duda elected in the first round with 10-20% turnout. I will repeat this one last time: Gowin fulfilled what we agreed upon. Together, we threw out the May elections – dangerous and unfair. Now the National Electoral Commission and local governments must conduct them." -- KOSINIAK GAINED DURING THE PANDEMIC BECAUSE HE IS A DOCTOR - BUDKA CONTINUES: "This was shown in the first weeks of the pandemic and the introduction of subsequent restrictions. The Speaker [Kidawa-Błońska] coped well in direct contact with people. Her strength was the warmth and calm she possesses. This is the opposite of the hysterically shouting and exceptionally nervous Andrzej Duda. But the campaign froze, and she – 'confined' to Warsaw – began to lose. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, for example, gained because he is a doctor, and people suddenly started looking for an alternative during the pandemic." -- BUDKA: I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE WAY KIDAWA ANNOUNCED THE BOYCOTT - FRAGMENT: “And who came up with this boycott? - The candidate's team. - So? - The team. I won't mention names. - You don't take responsibility for it? - Absolutely not. I'll go further, the day before, there was a meeting of the Civic Platform board, and we agreed on something else. That we would take actions, together with other candidates of the democratic opposition, to influence the postponement of the elections to a safe time." -- IT DIDN'T ALWAYS HELP, I TOLD SCHETYNA THAT'S NOT HOW YOU DO IT - ANOTHER FRAGMENT: "Are they still smoking cigars here? - Not at my place. And I'll preempt your question – the wine fridge is also gone. But I won't be a hypocrite – I like red wine, Grzegorz Schetyna likes white. - And do you know what was hanging on those nails on the wall, above the desk? - Grzegorz had a Śląsk Wrocław scarf there, Barcelona and Boston Celtics jerseys, and a plaque that said "Schetynówka." - Does Grzegorz Schetyna visit you? - Not recently. - Are you sorry? - There's no occasion, really. (laughs) - That sounded malicious. - No. But it must be said clearly: Grzegorz hasn't always helped in recent weeks. He attacked Małgosia back in April. He said on RMF radio then that if there were new elections, 'everything would start from scratch.' Małgosia took it very hard, she was really dejected – I had a serious conversation with him then in the parliamentary hall, and I said that's simply not how you do it." -- THERE WAS AN ATTEMPT TO ROCK THE BOAT - BUDKA CONTINUES: "I realize that at moments like these, it's tested whether someone has leadership character or not. For me, the real test was that famous board meeting where we changed the candidate. The final verification took place there, but also the last attempt to rock the boat, as we say metaphorically. A test of strength. It was also an answer to the question of whether we would go boldly forward, or whether we would return to the past again, whether we would finally close the chapter of changes. I say clearly: returning to the past is possible in movies. And only in movies." -- BUDKA ON HOŁOWNIA STRENGTHENING THE CONSERVATIVE WING OF PO: "For me, as the leader of the Civic Platform, what is happening around Szymon Hołownia is a potential threat. But in the face of our new offer, new quality, and energy, Szymon Hołownia will be able to join us, and of course, the doors of the Civic Platform will be wide open for him. Such a strengthening of the conservative wing within PO could be useful in internal discussions." https://tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/budka-powiedzialem-schetynie-ze-tak-sie-po-prostu-nie-robi,273,4779 -- IT'S NOT THE FAULT OF SOCIAL MEDIA, SOMETHING IS WRONG WITH US - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: "Something, however, tempted me to post a photo with an ironic caption ('Thanks to Wisła Warszawa, the city can be beautiful') on Twitter as well. And then it began. I quickly realized it was a mistake, but not how serious it was until a few hours later. Although the photo received several hundred likes (is there anything more pleasant for an author?), some users interpreted it as a political manifesto. My landscape was considered a provocation. Because, of course, since it's Wisła and Warsaw, it's obvious – Trzaskowski. For fervent PiS sympathizers, the river immediately became associated with a sewage treatment plant failure, and the fun with the cesspool began. Thank you, I'll pass. Let's have no illusions, it's not the fault of this or that social media service. Something is wrong with us when everything reminds us of politics. There is a beautiful world outside of it too. Just turn off social media for a moment to see it. Only, where else can you post the photos you take then?" https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/305299990-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Wisla-dzieli-Historia-pewnej-nieprowokacji.html -- AN INTERESTING THREAD ABOUT A MORAL SCANDAL FROM THE 90S - ZBIGNIEW SIEMIĄTKOWSKI ON ANASTAZJA POTOCKA AND PAYING HER BILLS FROM THE SERVICES' OPERATIONAL FUND - in conversation with Eliza Olczyk in Rzeczpospolita: "Materials on Anastazja Potocka were in Lesiak's safe – her photos with various important political figures, indicating a high degree of familiarity with them, as well as settled invoices for clothes from boutiques, paid for with money from the operational fund of one of the officers. As far as I remember, her apartment was also paid for from the operational fund. So, she certainly had contacts with an officer. But whether he paid her for carrying out orders with purchases or if she was with him privately and he used the operational fund to improve her financial situation, I don't know, although the matter was investigated." -- JUSTYNA SOBOLEWSKA ON THE LATE JERZY PILCH - ONE OF THE BEST OPENING SENTENCES IN POLISH LITERATURE: "Until recently, he could be seen in a Panama hat walking through downtown Warsaw. His was the Vistula and Krakow, and Warsaw, which he also placed in his novels – along with a shoemaker and a laundry on Hoża Street. One of the best opening sentences in Polish literature opens the volume 'Irretrievably Lost Left-Handedness': 'With a soul on my shoulder, I proceed to unceremoniously describe my neighbors, with a soul on my shoulder and my mind in a panic, for I know little.'" -- GRAPHOMANIACS TREMBLED - SOBOLEWSKA CONTINUES: "It was Pilch who created his own model of the feuilleton, which was outstanding literature. He was sharp and unceremonious, and he could 'twist a sentence' like no one else. Pilch's phrase became recognizable and inimitable (it was immediately clear who was trying to imitate him). The masses of graphomaniacs trembled before his sharp pen. He had not only beautiful beginnings of stories (not to mention the middles), but also endings, like the finale of the story 'Old Kubica and Darkness': 'Old Kubica walks through the darkness, a child with a burning branch walks before him, and somewhere nearby, having taken on a female form (as mythical thinking dictates) – evil itself lurks.'" -- BE WELL IN HEAVEN: "Solemn and sentimental phrases don't suit Pilch; rather, an anecdote. One would like to bid him farewell with the words of his character, Father Lasota from 'Wieszcząt,' who at the grave of the deceased, to the surprise of all present, said: 'Be well!' And then added: 'in heaven.'" https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kultura/1958570,1,jerzy-pilch-nie-chcialbym-miec-innego-zycia.read -- PHOTO. Diego Velázquez, Las Meninas, Museo Nacional del Prado, Madrid. Painted in the final period of Velázquez's life, 4 years before his death. Ostensibly a classic subject, the portrait of the Infanta Margaret Theresa surrounded by courtiers, it is in fact innovative and ambiguous. Rarely has a work in the history of European painting provided so many different interpretations. The painting Las Meninas has been recognized by art historians and artists alike as one of the greatest works in art history. Las Meninas is an exceptional painting. It is considered Velázquez's most important work, and at the same time one of the most enigmatic in art history. To this day, there are disputes and discussions about the painting's true subject, and researchers are vying to invent new interpretations or even over-interpretations. https://niezlasztuka.net/o-sztuce/diego-velazquez-panny-dworskie-las-meninas/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Czaputowicz, Barbara Zdrojewska, Jerzy Budnik, SUNDAY: Janusz Weiss.

Łukasz Mężyk