state of play: 05/25/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Shield 4.0, Sawczuk: The political scene has apparently shifted even further to the right, Zaremba: Kurski's return before the election violates the principle: during the campaign, we are smooth

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRESIDENT APPOINTS NEW FIRST PRESIDENT OF THE SUPREME COURT: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/25/pad-powolal-malgorzate-manowska-na-stanowisko-i-prezesa-sn/ -- GOVERNMENT IMPATIENT WITH SLOW PROCESSING OF SHIELD APPLICATIONS, MALĄG PROPOSES GOVERNMENT IT SERVICES TO WARSAW - 300POLITYKA: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/25/rzad-zniecierpliwiony-tempem-uruchamiania-tarczy-dla-przedsiebiorcow-przez-niektore-samorzady-malag-zaproponuje-warszawie-pomoc-rzadowych-sluzb-informatycznych-od-500-i-e-recepty/ -- RZ ON THE SHIELD 4.0: “Certainly, businesses will welcome the tax changes. For example, the easing of conditions for the bad debt relief in PIT/CIT. A company that has suffered from the epidemic will be able to use it after 30 days from the payment deadline (usually there are 90 days for this). This will improve the situation of entrepreneurs whose contractors do not pay on time. Another change concerns entrepreneurs who had difficulties fulfilling contracts due to the epidemic. They will be able to deduct penalties and compensation paid to contractors, for example, for defects in services rendered, from their PIT/CIT costs. Entrepreneurs will also have more time to report domestic tax schemes (MDR). This requirement is suspended until the 30th day after the state of epidemic is lifted.” https://www.rp.pl/Firma/305229923-Koronawirus-czwarta-tarcza-antykryzysowa-juz-jest-w-Sejmie.html -- PLATFORMA SUBMITS MOTIONS TO REMOVE SZUMOWSKI, KAMIŃSKI, AND ZIOBRO - WE ANNOUNCED THIS IN THE EVENING ON 300POLITYCE. -- TERLECKI ON THE ELECTION ANNOUNCEMENT DATE, BIELAN ON TRZASKOWSKI'S SIGNATURE COLLECTION, KUKIZ ON POLLS SHOWING KOMOROWSKI AS PRESIDENT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/25/#post-580709 -- PROF. DUDEK ON POLITICIANS PLAYING WITH MATCHES AT A GAS STATION: “However, this shows that finding a compromise is still possible, even though it contradicts the narratives built by the sides of the political conflict. Both present each other as a pack of degenerates, traitors, and madmen who must be destroyed, not appeased. What politicians have been doing for over a decade in the Polish-Polish war resembles playing with matches at a gas station. This will end badly someday.” https://forsal.pl/artykuly/1478526,dudek-politycy-w-wojnie-polsko-polskiej-zabawa-zapalkami-na-stacji-benzynowej.html -- PLATFORMA SHOUTS: TESTS! WHILE THEY CLOSED LABORATORIES, TRZASKOWSKI TALKS ABOUT POLICE STATIONS BUT IT'S PIS THAT RESTORED OVER 100 - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Tests! Tests! Tests! – shouted Civic Platform in the first days of the epidemic, which during its rule abolished dozens of laboratories across Poland, significantly weakening the Polish state's potential in this area. It seemed to be the height of hypocrisy. But no. Rafał Trzaskowski went even further, according to whom, “there are fewer and fewer police stations.” In fact, there are more and more – over the last 4 years, the PiS government has restored 127 out of 418 police stations and outposts abolished by the PO and PSL governments. This is a widely known, loud issue that painfully affected many local communities between 2007 and 2015. Does Trzaskowski not know that it was his party that abolished police stations, and PiS rebuilt them, or does he think he can say anything without worrying about facts? Possibly both.” -- TRZASKOWSKI LACKS TUSK'S TALENT - KARNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “However, would he be better in the long run at pretending to care about the ordinary person? Would he do better than, for example, Tusk? Probably not. He is too pretentious, he lacks that talent. In his case, everything is visible, nothing needs to be added.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/501549-opozycja-nie-powinna-ukrywac-ze-w-likwidowaniu-jest-dobra -- PRESIDENT KOMOROWSKI CHOSE RZEPLIŃSKI, DESPITE ŁĘTOWSKA RECEIVING THE SAME NUMBER OF VOTES - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Therefore, this is a very strong prerogative of the head of state, directly mentioned in the Constitution. The basic law makes no mention of any other, additional conditions for selecting a candidate – for example, with the highest number of votes received in the General Assembly of Supreme Court judges. And this has always been obvious. President Bronisław Komorowski chose Andrzej Rzepliński as the President of the Constitutional Tribunal, even though he was not the candidate with the most votes. The same happened with the selection of Andrzej Biernat as the vice-president of the CT (seven people voted for Rzepliński at the time, the same as for his rival Ewa Łętowska. Biernat received nine votes, and exactly the same number of people voted for his rival Mirosław Granat).” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/501618-opozycja-znowu-probuje-wymusic-zlamanie-konstytucji -- DUDA HAS SOMEONE TO LOSE TO - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “But there is also a big challenge for Duda's campaign team. Indeed, the incumbent president has the greatest chance of re-election today. But if the remaining five weeks until the presidential election are as heated as the one that has just passed, Duda may also lose. And PiS politicians are well aware of this. The question is, however, whether the medicine they are applying will not be worse than the disease. After the scandal at Trójka, Jacek Kurski's entry into the game – which, incidentally, is an image blow to Duda – support for the president may not increase. Such tactics may help polarize voters before the first round, but make it harder for Duda to reach new voters in the second. Moderate voters may be tired of Kurski's propaganda, the removal of critical songs from the hit list, or daily revelations about the wealth of the health minister's relatives.” -- SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON PIS'S DEFENSIVE STANCE: “This change was influenced by the freshness with which Trzaskowski entered the campaign, as well as the new energy and ideas. On the other hand, the ruling camp is paying the price for several mistakes. The political crisis that erupted as a result of the cancellation of the Radiowa Trójka Hit List, which was won by Kazik's song, is still ongoing, causing image devastation among moderate voters. As if they were oblivious to the situation on April 10th at Powązki cemetery, where representatives of the ruling party ignored sanitary recommendations, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki poses for photos in a pub at a table close to other people, even though the sanitary inspection enforces strict adherence to recommendations from ordinary restaurateurs. If we add to this the brutality with which the police pacify protests in the capital, we have a picture of PiS's deep political defensive stance.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/305249944-Szuldrzynski-Duda-ma-z-kim-przegrac.html -- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON THE BEHIND-THE-SCENES OFFENSIVE OF THE HARDLINERS IN PIS: “interesting things are happening behind the scenes. An offensive by the "hards" has occurred: Beata Szydło, Ryszard Terlecki, Solidarna Polska. Joachim Brudziński, the formal head of Duda's presidential campaign, is also allied with them, although his position has weakened. He was blamed for the failure to secure a majority in the Senate. This group lost the war with Jarosław Gowin over the May date for the presidential election. But Andrzej Duda's falling polls have become another argument for them against Kaczyński. Not only Gowin is blamed, but also Prime Minister Morawiecki. He did not believe in the May elections. And his persuasions are attributed to their last-minute postponement. Now, he too is falling out of favour with the leader. And his enemies are not idle.” -- ZAREMBA MENTIONS THE CONSPIRACY THEORY THAT KACZYŃSKI HAS ACCEPTED DUDAS DEFEAT: “However, the accelerated course towards "second Hungary" might prove extremely difficult with an opposition president. For the record, let's also note the conspiracy theories that Kaczyński has already accepted Duda's defeat, that a president from the opposition would allow him to share responsibility for Poles' misfortunes. On the other hand, PiS politicians console themselves that topics like the war around Trójka or Kurski's return do not concern ordinary Poles. Well, yes, but they might be important for that one or two percent that will decide the outcome of the second round. There are also other problems, such as Łukasz Szumowski's "scandal." Although, in the leader's mind, this is counted against Morawiecki, who is closely associated with the health minister.” -- KURSKI'S RETURN VIOLATES THE PRINCIPLE: DURING THE CAMPAIGN, WE ARE SMOOTH - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “At the same time, Kurski's return even before the elections violates the principle: during the campaign, we are smooth. The time for escalation comes after the elections. An important PiS politician recently convinced me that Kaczyński remains faithful to this principle. Now he has departed from it.” https://forsal.pl/artykuly/1478881,ofensywa-twardego-skrzydla-zjednoczonej-prawicy-mozliwa-zmiana-premiera.html -- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI ON KURSKI'S SEWAGE TRUCK - writes in GW: “In such a situation, Kurski with a sewage truck of mud against political opponents seems necessary. Except that he is not a specialist in creation, but in destruction. So far, the only maneuver creating Andrzej Duda as a national leader is the slow-motion clips repeated on television, where the president, dressed in something resembling a uniform, walked along a passage in Kołbaskowo closed during the epidemic. Kurski's return therefore seems to be an expression of the ruling team's highest anxiety rather than a solution. And the disaster with the May 10th elections, overseen by Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin, is proof that PiS is not omnipotent.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25971265,kampania-andrzeja-dudy-na-wirazu-wiec-wraca-motopompa-z-blotem.html -- KURSKI IS MEANT TO DECEIVE AND FRIGHTEN - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “A new enemy is needed, and I have no doubt that Jacek Kurski will point one out. Perhaps the "homolobby" again? Or all the celebrities under Trzaskowski's leadership? Maybe the Germans? Or the Swedes? Or perhaps someone's grandfather again? One thing is certain: the good times are over. We face an unpleasant time, a brutal campaign, slander, accusations, and the raking up of old wounds. And the voters? They are only meant to get drawn into all of this.” -- DĄBROWSKA ON DUDY CAMPAIGN TEAM'S LACK OF IDEAS AND THE FIGHT FOR THE ULTRARIGHT ELECTORATE: “Kurski's return also indicates what awaits us until (probably) mid-July, i.e., until the second round of elections. On the one hand, it's the presidential campaign team's lack of ideas, other than defending PiS's current positions. On the other hand, propaganda straight from TVP. Five years ago, Andrzej Duda won by appealing to the center and taking moderate voters away from Bronisław Komorowski. Kurski can at best fight for the ultra-right electorate, which is increasingly flowing towards Konfederacja. Will that be enough to win?” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/305249953-Dabrowska-Kurski-ma-tumanic-i-przestraszac.html -- THE RULING CAMP WILL NOT GET THROUGH THIS CAMPAIGN ON AUTOPILOT - AGATON KOZIŃSKI IN WP: “Certainly, the ruling camp will not get through this campaign on autopilot now. They must – at least in part – reinvent themselves. And this always involves stress and the risk of not meeting voter expectations with their ideas. The situation is further complicated by the fact that PiS is making strategic mistakes at a crucial moment. For example, by allowing chaos to reign regarding the election date. Or by losing control of the situation at Radiowa Trójka. These events are dangerous for Nowogrodzka [PiS headquarters], as they fit the opposition's metanarrative: that PiS are amateurs who don't know how to govern, so they need to be replaced by professionals. At a crucial moment of the campaign, the ruling camp has provided arguments to support this thesis.” -- PIS CAN LOSE TO ITSELF - KOZIŃSKI CONTINUES: “But at whose expense is it growing? Both Hołownia and Kosiniak-Kamysz have lost a bit – however, the PO candidate's ratings have gone up primarily at the expense of Robert Biedroń. It's clear that he is the biggest loser of the campaign reset. He is unlikely to recover from this slump. However, this latter division is more natural, which is why, despite a drop in the polls, the current president is still closest to winning. Only mistakes – his own and PiS's – can prevent him from doing so. Such as the aforementioned chaos with Trójka, for example. The fate of this presidential campaign will ultimately be decided by the efficiency of the government, Nowogrodzka, and the party apparatus in the field. Because PiS can lose these elections to itself. And Andrzej Duda can lose them only to Andrzej Duda and to PiS.” https://opinie.wp.pl/wybory-2020-kozinski-andrzej-duda-traci-przewage-na-zyczenie-wlasne-i-pis-u-6514006231976065a -- TOMASZ SAWCZUK BELIEVES THE POLISH POLITICAL SCENE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE RIGHT-WING - as he writes in Kulturze Liberalnej: “However, it is hard not to notice a shift in the PSL, which has now adopted slogans appealing to systemic radicalism, and in some matters has moved to extremely free-market positions. Such tendencies were either absent or more mildly expressed in the PSL in recent years. If we consider the growing polls of the far-right candidate Krzysztof Bosak, we could note that the Polish political scene has apparently shifted even further to the right. It is worth remembering, however, that contemporary political transformations are not one-dimensional. In an interview with "Kultura Liberalna," Kosiniak-Kamysz also advocates for registered partnerships and sex education in schools.” -- HOŁOWNIA HAS TAKEN OVER BIEDROŃ'S ROLE - SAWCZUK CONTINUES: “In essence, one can say that Hołownia and Biedroń are the same candidate. It seems that Hołownia had good reasons to publish a letter to the readers of "Krytyka Polityczna" ("Letter to the Left"). Hołownia has taken over Robert Biedroń's former role on the Polish political scene, becoming the left's candidate "within our means." Both candidates want to break the duopoly, talk about challenges for decades, green transformation, are men of similar age, have media experience, behave emotionally and directly, calling for the use of dignified language instead of contemptuous language. Their views on the economy are not excessively different. Their rhetoric may be different, but a similar range of possible solutions would be acceptable to them. Although Biedroń is now speaking a more left-wing language than a few months ago, it seems to be mainly due to the coalition arrangement forcing him to, rather than any deep convictions on his part.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/05/25/sawczuk-w-poniedzialek-sawczuk-holownia-i-biedron-jak-polityczni-bracia/ -- ELECTION OF THE FIRST PRESIDENT IS CONTRARY TO LAW - EWA SIEDLECKA: “It is already known that the appointment of the First President of the Supreme Court will take place in violation of the law. The election procedure has been broken, only one candidate has the support of the majority of judges, and furthermore, the General Assembly of Supreme Court Judges did not adopt a resolution to present candidates to the president. Instead, this mission was undertaken by Aleksander Stępkowski, appointed as temporary commissioner by the president. The necessity of presenting candidates through a resolution stems from the rules of operation of collegial bodies, and the General Assembly of the Supreme Court is such a body.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1957690,1,nadchodzi-dobra-zmiana-w-sadzie-najwyzszym.read -- MACIEJ WIERZYŃSKI ON LATE DEPARTURES FROM TRÓJKA BUT JOY OVER A FEW CONVERTS: “Nor do I suggest that those who left the radio should have remained in that cesspool. They simply did what any decent person should do, only they did it a bit too late. From my own experience, I know that such choices are usually made too late. But it is also a matter of individual organism's endurance: one vomits after a quarter, and another can handle half a liter. Or, to be more elegant, I will quote the Gospel: "There will be more rejoicing in heaven over one sinner than over ninety-nine righteous persons." Perhaps I am wrong, perhaps one should rejoice over these few converts.” https://tvn24.pl/polska/felieton-macieja-wierzynskiego-nawroceni-czyli-lista-przebojow-4592462 -- MICHAŁ OKOŃSKI ON TRÓJKA AS THE LAST CHAPTER OF PIS RULE: - writes in Tygodnik Powszechny: “Various reasons have led to the downfall of powers losing contact with reality throughout history, most often it was not one reason but a confluence of circumstances. Certainly, the continuously increasing number of coronavirus infections and the uncertain economic future do not help PiS. Certainly, information about wasted money on non-compliant masks or lost ballots for an unheld vote does not help them. However, I like to think that after years, some historian will describe the last chapter of this rule, starting with an SMS (original spelling): "Piotr, make sure the song we talked about is not on the Airwaves.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/dorosle-dzieci-maja-zal-163491 -- PHOTO. Rain, Steam, Speed, William Turner, National Gallery in London. The rushing locomotive is a symbol of the dynamism of new times, while the two boats with passengers visible on the left under the bridge pillars, and especially the barely discernible ploughman with a two-horse plough on the right, are signs of the old order – the agrarian era. It is also a contrast between machine and nature. The oil painting by William Turner was created in 1844. It depicts a train crossing a river during inclement weather. Art historians are not in agreement about the overall meaning of the work. It is commonly believed that the rain and the symbols appearing within the work – the train, the barely visible boats in the river below, and the horses at work, reflect the transformations characteristic of the era – the end of an era based on agriculture. The dominance of the machine is unequivocal. It towers over man, and by extension, over work based on muscle power. A new chapter in human history will be based on human intellect. The place depicted in the painting is the Maidenhead Railway Bridge over the Thames, designed in 1837 and completed in 1839. The presence of a hare, whose outline can be seen in the lower right corner of the painting, is rather puzzling. It probably serves as a warning – in the face of the machine, it is condemned to flight or death, which can be interpreted as a latent threat in science. https://rynekisztuka.pl/2014/09/11/10-inspirujacych-deszczowych-pejzazy-w-sztuce/ -- 11TH ANNIVERSARY OF RADIO WNET. -- 6 YEARS AGO, European Parliament elections were held. -- BIRTHDAYS: Halina Rozpondek, Aldona Młyńczak.

Łukasz Mężyk