state of play: 05/23/2020

The State of Play: PAD Following GW's Reportage to Maciejowice, Stankiewicz: PiS Poll Gave Trzaskowski a Clear Victory Over Duda 55-45, wPolityce: Sentiments Have Temporarily Dipped, Kurski to Fix It

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE PRESIDENT AT THE MARKET IN MACIEJOWICE, WHOSE ENTHUSIASM FOR PIS WAS THE SUBJECT OF A REPORTAGE IN YESTERDAY'S GAZETA WYBORCZA. -- THERE IS NO SUCH POVERTY NOW – WHAT DO PEOPLE IN THE MAZOWIAN VILLAGE SAY ABOUT THE CIVIC PLATFORM? – REPORTAGE BY KACPER SULOWSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA STOŁECZNA: “Raspberries 8 PLN per kilo, a head of lettuce 2 PLN, cucumbers 4 PLN. At Mrs. Maria’s, who sells vegetables at the market in Maciejowice, prices are almost half of those in Warsaw. – In the capital, customers have better purchasing power, so you can afford it, but here, we often have to give vegetables on credit. When there was no 500+ program, a mother with four children would come and ask for a meter of potatoes on credit. Everyone ate potatoes with milk for a whole month. And now she’ll buy lettuce, beets, or cabbage. The children are better dressed, a car in the driveway, old, yes, but it’s there. Or my neighbor. She used to come often, her child would reach for grapes, and she’d be ashamed. – Come on, come on, we’re in a hurry, she’d say. There’s no such poverty now. And you tell me – did anyone care about such people before?” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,25960885,jak-ktos-przeciw-pis-owi-to-mowia-ze-wariat-w-tej-gmienie.html -- RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN KOSZALIN TODAY 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/23/ -- FROM TODAY, 8 PM FOR 36 HOURS, THE RECORDING OF WARLIKOWSKI’S FRENCH PLAY BASED ON PROUST FROM TEATR NOWY WILL BE AVAILABLE – FEATURING EWA DAŁKOWSKA AS THE QUEEN OF NAPLES, MAJA OSTASZEWSKA AS ODETTE DE CRECY, MARIUSZ BONASZEWSKI AS SWANN, JACEK PONIEDZIAŁEK AS BARON DE CHARLUS, AND MAGDA CELLECKA AS ORIANE DE GUERMANTES: https://www.facebook.com/MCKNowyTeatr -- MICHAŁ PEPOL PERFORMS A CARD FROM MYKIETYN’S ALBUM ON THE CELLO – A FRAGMENT OF THE FRENCH PLAY – IN THE SALON OF SYDONIA VERDURIN, PLAYED BY MAŁGORZATA HAJEWSKA-KRZYSZTOFIK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFRwMyiDQTk -- BALCONY – AN OIL PAINTING BY FRENCH ARTIST ÉDOUARD MANET, CREATED BETWEEN 1868-1869, CURRENTLY HOUSED AT THE MUSÉE D’ORSAY IN PARIS. -- MANET'S PAINTING CHALLENGED BOURGEOIS CONVENTIONS – AGNIESZKA NIEMOJEWSKA ONCE WROTE: "Apparently, Édouard Manet’s work, first presented at the Salon des Refusés in 1869, was only meant to depict the modern face of Paris and its inhabitants. In reality, the painting challenged bourgeois conventions." -- MANET TREATED THE BALCONY RAILING LIKE A CAGE FROM WHICH WOMEN WERE SOON TO BE FREED: "Balconies, though narrow, optically enlarged living space. They also had another advantage: young ladies from good families, meticulously hidden from unwanted glances by strangers until then, could showcase their latest outfits, allow themselves to be admired by admirers strolling below, and break existing conventions. The 'dismantling' of barriers that disenfranchised women was only to occur in the 20th century. As early as 1869, Édouard Manet treated the balcony railing like an openwork cage from which women were soon to be freed." https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-historii/310039933-Balkon-Maneta.html?cid -- KURSKI RETURNS DUE TO DUDY’S POOR POLLS – ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONET: “The express appointment of Jacek Kurski to the TVP management board has one fundamental reason: the weakening standings of the president. Fewer and fewer polls give Andrzej Duda a chance to win in the first round, which was standard just a few weeks ago.” -- PIS INTERNAL POLL SHOWED TRZASKOWSKI WITH A CLEAR VICTORY OVER DUDA – STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “PiS politicians say that their internal party polls went haywire after Rafał Trzaskowski entered the race. A poll from a few days ago was supposed to be an alarm bell, giving Trzaskowski a clear victory over Duda in the second round: 55% to 45%. We’ve heard about such a result from several sources.” -- THIS MAY BE WHISPER CAMPAIGN, BUT THE RULING CAMP ISN'T WAITING IDLY – STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Of course, one should approach rumors about internal party polls with caution – it might just be a whisper campaign to sedikit awaken the dormant PiS electorate. But the fact remains that the ruling camp is not waiting idly. And that’s why Jacek Kurski is returning to the TVP management board.” -- DUDA ACCEPTED KURSKI’S RETURN – STANKIEWICZ: “At first glance, Kurski’s return to the TVP management board after only 10 weeks seems like a humiliation for Duda. But that’s just an illusion. Why would PiS humiliate Duda in an increasingly difficult election campaign for him? Yes, Kurski’s appointment as an advisor to the TVP management board in March, a few days after his resignation from the chairmanship, was a humiliation. But today, it’s not about ridiculing the president. Quite the opposite – it’s about helping him. Duda was informed about Kurski’s return plan and accepted it – he sees the campaign’s flaws himself and counts on TVP’s help.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/jacek-kurski-wraca-do-zarzadu-tvp-znamy-kulisy-analiza/0rtmqtk -- A GIGANTIC PROBLEM – STANKIEWICZ LISTS ALL OF PIS’S TROUBLES: “It seems that PiS has a gigantic problem: the president’s campaign has fallen into a rut. But is it really Andrzej Duda’s fault? Or perhaps his mother party’s? Million-dollar deals of the Szumowski clan. Protests by entrepreneurs, suppressed by the police. Protective equipment from China, welcomed by party and government officials, which turned out to be worthless. The ruination of Polskie Radio Program III at the hands of mediocre mercenaries. Each of these events has a different weight and reaches different segments of the electorate. But their cumulative effect is already weakening Duda – fewer and fewer polls give him a chance to win in the first round, which was standard just a few weeks ago.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/halo-nowogrodzka-mamy-problem-newsletter/xs4lwv9 THE RIGHT HAS NO CHANCE WHEN MEDIA MONOPOLY RE-EMERGES – WPOLITYCE QUOTES A FIGURE FROM THE RIGHT: “Is the aim, then – as some publicists of the Third Polish Republic claim – to restore him to the role of head of the 'propaganda ministry'? No – we hear in response – the aim is to actively safeguard freedom, pluralism, a space where the narratives of the Third Polish Republic do not reign, where there is also room for what is happening positively, and not just streams of anti-PiS hate pouring from the largest media outlets. Under such conditions, the United Right knows how to win – but when a media monopoly arises, there are no chances.” -- SENTIMENTS ON THE PRO-POLISH CAMP SIDE HAVE TEMPORARILY ACTUALLY DIPPED, KURSKI IS TO FIX IT – WPOLITYCE CONTINUES: This is important because sentiments on the pro-Polish camp side have temporarily actually dipped. President Duda’s campaign was targeted for May, and now it needs to be re-aligned – campaign strategists are working on it. Rafał Trzaskowski is on the offensive, though clearly limited to regaining the ground abandoned by Kidawa-Błońska. At the same time, the narratives of the Third Polish Republic camp have started to dominate again for a moment – and it is precisely Kurski who is to fix this, to regain the initiative for those who do not want the rule of TVN, Michnik, and German publishing houses in the media market. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/501489-tylko-u-nas-kulisy-powrotu-jacka-kurskiego-do-zarzadu-tvp -- TRZASKOWSKI WILL VASSALIZE THE REST OF THE OPPOSITION, BUT WILL POLAND WANT A RETURN TO BALCEROWICZ-ESQUE CRUELTY? – MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “I predict that Trzaskowski, using the support of the major media and the Civic Platform’s party apparatus, will quite quickly marginalize and vassalize other opposition contenders. But will Poland, after five years of a leap in quality of life, true media pluralism, and development in almost all areas, want Balcerowicz-esque cruelty and Round Table deals? I doubt it.” -- KARNOWSKI ON THE ESTABLISHMENT THAT HANGS OUT IN THE SOPOT BAYS OF THE ARTS WITH CLASS PRIVILEGE RENTS: “It will therefore be another clash between a solidarity-based Poland and a liberal one. A Poland proud of its past versus one that employs a pedagogy of shame. The one that settled into Polskie Radio Program III after martial law (and after ousting its predecessors) versus the one that must struggle for a voice in the media space. Finally – who knows, perhaps most importantly – a Poland for all citizens versus a paradise for that part of the Warsaw establishment that, drawing various class privilege rents, frolics in its free time in the Sopot Bays of the Arts and demands the abolition of taxes paid by the wealthiest regions in favor of equalizing development in poorer areas.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/501471-wylania-nam-sie-juz-ksztalt-operacji-kandydat-trzaskowski -- THE FIGHT FOR THE SHAPE OF THE OPPOSITION: IS ANTI-PIS READY FOR A LIBERAL TINT? – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “In these elections, the fight is also about what face the opposition will have. A good result for Rafał Trzaskowski, who has just entered the race, would give it a liberal tint. Is anti-PiS ready for that?” -- TRZASKOWSKI THROWN INTO AN ERA OF ROARING POPULISM – ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Radek Sikorski, pushing to run, symbolized the obsessions of old, truly outdated disputes. The Mayor of Warsaw can, after all, be presented as a project for the future. The only question is the breadth of the potential audience for this offer. Who is waiting for a Warsaw-Krakow dandy boasting about his education alongside Bronisław Geremek? Eloquent, well-read, but thrown into an era of roaring populism.” -- PERHAPS POPULISM HAS BECOME TEDIOUS OR DILUTED IN THE MISFORTUNES OF THE PANDEMIC, AND IT'S THE BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA? – ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “But in general, certain elements of this scenario began to be realized in the parliamentary elections. The PSL entered the cities, began to capture the moderately world-view electorate of the Civic Platform. Now, however, this march has stopped. First, Szymon Hołownia slightly blocked it. Then Trzaskowski more forcefully. Perhaps the audience reacts better to familiar faces and sharp words? Kosiniak himself drew conclusions from this, limiting himself to anti-PiS tirades in the television debate. Or perhaps the best remedy for PiS is not 'better PiS,' but a fortified anti-PiS? Perhaps the key is to appeal to 'aspiration.' Perhaps this creates some chances for the battered, chopped-up Civic Platform to make a comeback. Perhaps the skin was divided before the bear was caught? Perhaps this is the beginning of a new era? In Polish politics, we have experienced an economic cycle in many spheres. Perhaps populism has become tedious? Or diluted in the misfortunes of the pandemic? Although cataclysms usually reward egalitarianism.” -- ZAREMBA ON BIEDROŃ – HE SHOULD BE THE ONE TO RAISE THE ISSUE OF THE DANGERS OF "NEW REPRIVATIZATION": “There is still the Lewica candidate. Robert Biedroń should be the one to raise the issue of the dangers of 'new privatization.' He should appeal for the permanent change in the role of healthcare in the budget structure after the pandemic. He talks about it, ostensibly. But his hysterical assurances that he is 'the only progressive candidate' are heard the loudest. Worldview issues sell poorly, despite the Sekielski brothers' film, and on top of that, Trzaskowski's metropolitan liberalism will threaten Biedroń on this flank. Adrian Zandberg would have been able to force the primacy of social issues in the campaign of a left-wing candidate. Biedroń, who quite recently, as the mayor of Słupsk, tried to consult with Balcerowicz, cannot do this.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/305229988-Niewygodny-bagaz-Rafala-Trzaskowskiego.html -- WE HAVE UNLEASHED HUGE RESERVES OF ENERGY – RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GAZETA WYBORCZA: “I think we have unleashed huge reserves of energy. I will use strong words because I believe in them: we have defended Poland from dangerous elections that had nothing to do with democracy. We have a chance to go into truly democratic elections, and most importantly: we have a chance to win them. And I truly feel the energy. I receive hundreds of emails and calls. Even on Friday, before my candidacy was announced, some were asleep, and today they want to fight. I don't think anyone expected so many people to wake up. And this is very important! We need to wake up the sleeping and move towards victory. The stakes are huge. It's the future of Poland. If I’ve caused a stir in that sense, I’m very happy.” -- HE HAD THE COURAGE – TRZASKOWSKI ON GOWIN: “There were many elements. Gowin, local governments, enormous public pressure after Sasin’s election fiasco. If not for Jarosław Gowin’s firm and principled stance, this success would not have happened. He was the only one in the ruling camp who had the courage to say the emperor has no clothes, to put the state’s interest above party interest.” -- I STRUGGLED WITH MY THOUGHTS FOR 5 DAYS – TRZASKOWSKI CONTINUES: “everyone said: 'Rafał, this is the moment,' 'You have to go and fight for the future.' Hundreds of calls, immense pressure. I wrestled with my thoughts for five days; Warsaw is incredibly important to me. When I was stuck in the Sejm, listening to futile debates, and couldn’t do concrete things, I was unhappy. I came alive in local government. In the last year and a half in Warsaw, I’ve seen that local government is brilliant. The effect of actions is immediately visible here. I know that I would have changed the city over these five years. And I will be terribly sorry for that, if I win.” -- MY WIFE IS MY CLOSEST FRIEND, WE ARE ALREADY IN FIGHT MODE – TRZASKOWSKI TELLS KONDZIŃSKA AND SZPAL: “At home, it was like in my head. Lots of doubts. My wife is my closest friend and at the same time the toughest partner; I haven’t made any important decisions without her. She was never enthusiastic about my involvement in politics; she believes I would be ten times better elsewhere, without such stress, without such hatred. We decided together; there’s no turning back now. We also listened to the children’s doubts. But the decision was made. Unanimously. I am now in fight mode. We have to win these elections.” -- TRZASKOWSKI SAYS 500+ MUST REMAIN A PILLAR OF SOCIAL POLICY: “Where has the PiS government shown effectiveness? Solely in the 500+ program. It correctly diagnosed citizens’ needs and introduced this mechanism to the satisfaction of most of our citizens. I admit, it’s their success, 500+ has become part of social policy, it must remain its pillar. Except that introducing a program where money is handed out is very simple. Has the government solved any other problem? Mining? Energy? Economic transformation? Any other significant social policy problem, even though they supposedly care so much about the weaker citizen? They were supposed to change healthcare, they were supposed to change education into a modern one, they were supposed to make Poles equal, they were supposed to help people left behind by the transformation advance faster. And what?” -- TRZASKOWSKI TALKS ABOUT THE SLANDERING OF HIS MOTHER: “During the local government campaign, people from PiS were looking for dirt; they even spoke with my students. They dug up some information from the IPN and tried to make my mother an agent of the Security Service. My mother, who was in the final days of her life, severely ill with Parkinson’s, couldn’t defend herself. I saw that these accusations reached her, as her last days were very difficult.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25968204,rafal-trzaskowski-pis-probuje-wyzwolic-najpodlejsze-emocje.html -- 15 YEARS OF UNINTERRUPTED RIGHT-WING RULE – AGNIESZKA DZIEINIANOWICZ-BĄK IN CONVERSATION WITH AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON OKO.PRESS: “Because all the others are right-wing candidates. Only Biedroń offers hope for a just, normal, safe state. After 15 years of uninterrupted right-wing rule, it’s clear what doesn’t work. The time of emerging from the crisis is an opportunity for a new social contract. Implementing the demands of the left and the openness of the Presidential Palace to them is not only appropriate today but even necessary.” -- THE LEFT’S TALKING POINT ON BIEDROŃ’S POSITION – EVERYTHING WAS DIFFERENT, WE’RE STARTING A NEW CAMPAIGN: “Five weeks is a lot of time in politics. Five weeks ago, polls suggested a Duda-Kosiniak duel, the Civic Platform’s candidate was still holding on, everything was different. The campaign is yet to come. We are starting a new campaign, with a renewed team. With an invariably consistent vision of how the state should be organized, but with a new, fresh idea for the campaign.” -- TRZASKOWSKI IS MAINSTREAM – DZIEINIANOWICZ-BĄK OUTLINES THE LINE OF CRITICISM TOWARDS THE CIVIC PLATFORM: “Rafał Trzaskowski and the entire Civic Platform are environments whose main goal is 'to be in the mainstream.' Before the crisis, no one from the Platform even uttered a word about liquidating precarious employment contracts – and they ruled for 8 years, they had full power. Trzaskowski gives no guarantees that he won’t change his mind again after the elections – Robert Biedroń and the entire left remain true to their views, regardless of which way the wind blows.” -- KOSINIAK’S VIEWS ARE NO LESS THREATENING TO ME THAN THOSE OF THE REST OF THE RIGHT – DZIEINIANOWICZ-BĄK ON KOSINIAK: “Personally, I greatly respect and value Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz; he has great class and the calmness needed in politics. But ideologically, he is a Christian-conservative politician; his views – for example, on women’s rights – are no less threatening to me than those presented by the rest of the right. Even if he presents them with a pleasant smile.” -- DZIEINIANOWICZ-BĄK ANNOUNCES MORE WOMEN ON THE LEFT: “But it’s high time that strong women of the Left stand alongside the tenors – especially since there are really many of them.” https://oko.press/dziemianowicz-bak-biedron-sondaze/ -- I DON'T DENY LATKOWSKI'S PASSION, BUT AMBIGUOUS METHODS AROUSE MY OPPOSITION – PIOTR ZAREMBA ON POLSAT NEWS: “And this is precisely what I fear. The transformation of journalistic investigation into a Gombrowicz-esque minefield. Where unclear accusations are meant to serve a war against a specific environment. TVP has political reasons to act this way. What are Latkowski’s motives? And, most importantly, what evidence does he have? He should present it as soon as possible. For now, we have word against word. This leads to my perfectly ambivalent feelings. If the film pushes forward the case of 'Krystek,' and perhaps someone who was behind him, justice – albeit to a limited extent – will be served. The narrators in the film were Anaid’s mother and aunt. Their misfortune speaks, evokes a sense of pain and solidarity. They also played a role in persuading other victimized girls to speak out. But if the attacks on celebrities end in a spectacle, more harm than good will come of it. The whole story of elites covering up the proceedings may be reduced to fabrication with a political background to boot. I greatly fear such an outcome. I don’t deny Latkowski’s passion, but his ambiguous methods arouse my opposition.” https://tygodnik.polsatnews.pl/news/2020-05-23/czekam-na-dowody-zaremba-o-filmie-latkowskiego/ -- ON THE RANKS OF BUFFOONS – PROF. MARCIN KRÓL ON TVN24: “The ranks of buffoons are significant, and the damage they are currently doing to Poland is considerable, but not dramatic. However, fear sets in when we think how far loyalty would go in a slightly different situation. The worst precedents come to mind here. Loyalty to the leader and his deputies has replaced thinking in many circumstances, including, as Hannah Arendt writes, in the Third Reich.” -- KACZYŃSKI IS CONSCIOUSLY BUILDING A NEW SOCIETY – MARCIN KRÓL CONTINUES: “Kaczyński is consciously building a kind of new society, which the more it is subjected to PiS propaganda, the more certain it is to guarantee another electoral victory. This is not an easy task, because despite many attempts, it has not been possible to completely subjugate or delude Poles.” -- KRÓL ON THE DEGRADATION OF POLITICS AS A PROFESSION: “(...) is the most important for our interpretation. Namely, the degradation of politics as a profession (Max Weber). Throughout the Western world, third-rate individuals go into politics, and in Poland, it’s even worse. This results from several reasons: the insecurity and dependence of a politician on the party leader and the lack of any requirements regarding competence. Politicians don’t even have to be able to speak publicly well, which until recently was a prerequisite. And finally, the relatively low earnings, hence the almost necessity of supplementing one’s income legally and less legally. Of course, there are exceptions: Barack Obama or Ms. Angela Merkel, but even they cannot achieve much in an already corrupted world of democracy. It is from this situation that Jarosław Kaczyński benefits, although it may turn out that his project is not adapted to the necessary changes, so it has a relatively short lifespan. All PiS activists – except him – are fourth-rate politicians who know nothing: neither how to speak, nor decide, nor plan, nor govern. It is understandable that they await decisions from the commander. However, this creates a dangerous situation because Jarosław Kaczyński – by the nature of this situation – cannot have successors. The leaders of the two small parties allied with PiS understand this well and are waiting for their opportunity. Here and there, more interesting figures appear, but they are quickly leveled down or removed from their positions. The misfortune of our times is such recruitment into politics, and in Kaczyński’s Poland, it is visible as in the best example.” https://tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/kaczynski-i-zastepy-cymbalow-czy-to-juz-kult-jednostki,272,4762 -- EWA SIEDLECKA ON THE THEATRE IN THE SUPREME COURT PERFORMED TO CREATE AN IMPRESSION OF FORMALITY: “Of course not. The president will almost certainly choose a person who will be 'obedient' to PiS. The entire procedure for selecting five candidates is a play performed to satisfy appearances. It will not result in the selection of five candidates supported by the majority of judges because it is simply impossible, as there are 99 judges in total, and each has one vote.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1957670,1,pis-urzadza-teatr-w-sadzie-najwyzszym-poza-trybem.read?src=mt -- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Samul, Dorota Janowicz, Justyna Kopińska, Hanna Foltyn-Kubicka, Adam Hofman (turning 40), Grzegorz Sztolcman, Marek Wikiński, Małgorzata Okońska-Zaremba, SUNDAY: Wojciech Maksymowicz, Zofia Wilczyńska, Krzysztof Martens.

Łukasz Mężyk