-- 5 YEARS AGO, ANDRZEJ DUDA DEFEATED BRONISŁAW KOMOROWSKI IN THE FIRST ROUND OF ELECTIONS. -- IPSOS FOR OKO - AFTER A LONG DEPRESSION, OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS ARE REGAINING FAITH IN PIS DEFEAT - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: “For the first time in a long time, polls are dominated by the opinion that support for PiS will decline. Opposition voters have rejected fatalism and largely believe that the virus and the crisis will weaken Kaczyński. This could act as a self-fulfilling prophecy.” -- PIS HAS DETERMINED VOTERS - CONTINUED BY DANIELEWSKI: “87 percent of Law and Justice voters believe that the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic will positively impact support for the ruling party, or at least it will remain unchanged. Only 9 percent believe that poll numbers will start to fall. Such a high percentage of convinced individuals is good news for the ruling camp: dedicated and determined voters are a treasure; it is thanks to them that President Duda would win the postal vote if it were held in May. But there is also the other side of the coin: the belief in the party's power, its leader, and its candidate can turn into a curse when PiS faces problems it cannot solve.” https://oko.press/kazdy-krok-w-tyl-to-problem-dla-pis/ -- THE EPIDEMIC DOESN'T HARM PIS - SE POLL: PIS 40%, KO 24%, LEWICA 14%, PSL 11%, KONFEDERACJA 9%. -- A LASTING DIVISION INTO TWO BLOCKS - RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN SE: “We have long been strongly divided into two blocks. This division became apparent as early as 2006. Even major events, like the pandemic or presidential elections, are unable to permanently change this division. Even if there are fluctuations in support for parties, everything later returns to 'normal'.” https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/epidemia-nie-szkodzi-pis-najnowszy-sondaz-super-expressu-aa-jxGP-FY2e-uGyp.html -- KACZYSKI'S LIFE STORY HAS MANY MOMENTS THAT EXPLAIN HIS APPROACH - "US" AND "THEM" - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “Now it was supposed to be truly something like an annex, an allied faction, like the ZSL and SD in relation to the PZPR. And this in itself is neither good nor bad. No one can prove that the three-party formula of United Right is eternal and optimal. What matters is the essence of this dispute. I asked an important PiS politician if Jarosław Kaczyński doesn't understand that fully irregular elections and a president pushed through 'by the knee' is a recipe for an even greater tearing of the community. – But the president doesn't reason in those categories. We are 'us' and there are 'them'. 'They' must be outplayed once again, because otherwise they will destroy 'us', that's his philosophy – he replied. There are many moments in Kaczyński's life experiences that explain such an approach. Against this backdrop, Gowin's fate is almost idyllic. However, nothing can be done about the fact that it is the preaching Jarosław Gowin who is right in this case. Even if he capitulates to reality in the end.” -- GOWIN HAS RETURNED TO HIS ROOTS - ZAREMBA WRITES FURTHER IN RZ: “By opposing the May elections, burdened with the sin of irregularities and unacceptable to the entire opposition, Jarosław Gowin has returned to his roots. To the perception of Poland as a community where one at least tries to negotiate the rights of the sides. This is so unfashionable nowadays that many Poles look at him as a guy speaking a foreign language.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/305089982-Jaroslaw-Gowin-Ryzykant-buntownik-czy-chlodny-kalkulant.html -- IF THE OPPOSITION, EVEN WITH GOWIN, CANNOT TOPPLE KACZYSKI, THEN THEY WON'T TOPPLE HIM THIS TERM AT ALL: “All the main players in the ruling camp have lost. But the opposition has nothing to rejoice about. Since they cannot topple Kaczyński with Gowin, it means they will not topple him in this Sejm at all.” -- KACZYSKI'S MOST PAINFUL DEFEAT - CONTINUED BY STANKIEWICZ: “Although in reality Gowin's stubbornness saved Kaczyński from trouble – the elections were prepared in scandalous conditions, and the ballot papers likely leaked – Kaczyński's perspective is different: he was supposed to have his president on Sunday, and he doesn't. And this is the president's defeat. The most painful since he became the sole ruler of Poland almost 5 years ago.” -- THE CHAMBER OF EXTRAORDINARY CONTROL IS NOT CONTROLLED FROM THE PARTY HEADQUARTERS, IT REJECTED THE SENATE PROTESTS OF PIS - CONTINUED BY STANKIEWICZ: “It's similar with the Supreme Court. Although there are legal doubts about this, everything indicates that the Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs of the Supreme Court will decide on the validity of the elections that did not take place. This chamber was created during the PiS era, but it is not directly controlled from the party headquarters. Example: it rejected all of PiS's protests regarding the Senate elections last autumn. And it would have been enough for them to recognize just two – and PiS, not the opposition, would have a majority in the Senate today.” -- THE SUPREME COURT AND THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION WILL TURN A BLIND EYE - STANKIEWICZ WRITES ABOUT A RELATIVELY TRANSPARENT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: “However, the fact is that the National Election Commission and the Supreme Court, when assessing the complicated situation around the presidential elections created by PiS, must take into account the difficulties that await us if we do not elect a new president by the beginning of August. Therefore, they will likely turn a blind eye to the inadequacy of the procedure used by the ruling camp, assuming that elections must somehow take place. And – with all reservations – Jarosław's compromise with Jarosław will enable a relatively transparent presidential election.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/kaczynski-musial-sie-cofnac-163289 -- ALL SIDES OF THE UNITED RIGHT SHOULD CONSIDER HOW TO ARRANGE RELATIONS - PIOTR SEMKA IN SALON DZIENNIKARSKI: “Certainly, Gowin has sown fears that he might be someone who can again deploy his eighteen sabres, or rather the eight that could support him in a conflict. Secondly, Gowin should remember that the principle that whose votes decide can work the other way around. It might happen that Gowin will push for a certain project, and then Zbigniew Ziobro will say that without Solidarna Polska. This is a hint that in the near future all sides of the United Right should consider how to arrange their relations.” -- SEMKA WARNS AGAINST USING THE MAY 23RD ELECTION LOOPHOLE: “Perhaps these are rumors and media reports, but I would warn Mrs. Witek against setting a date for the 23rd, which is theoretically possible, as it would illustrate that this deal will immediately fall apart. Patching up the conflict within the United Right is valuable.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/499455-semka-w-salonie-dziennikarskim-gowin-zasial-obawy -- GRZEGORZ ŁAKOMSKI IN TVN24 WRITES ABOUT THE MEETING IN TERLECKI'S OFFICE: “Sejm. It's past 8 PM. The corridors are empty. The only debate during the campaign with all presidential candidates is starting on TVP. Jarosław Kaczyński, Jarosław Gowin, and Mateusz Morawiecki enter the office of Deputy Marshal Ryszard Terlecki at this time. According to our information from sources close to PiS, the meeting is the result of a one-on-one conversation between the leaders of PiS and Porozumienie [Agreement], which took place a few hours earlier. The holding of elections scheduled for May 10th depends on the outcome of negotiations between the leaders of PiS and Porozumienie.” https://tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/rozliczenie-z-gowinem-to-kwestia-czasu-kulisy-wyborczej-porazki-kaczynskiego,269,4720 -- WOJCIECH SZCZUREK ON THE ELECTION DATE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS - in conversation with Piotr Jacoń on TVN24: “If I am convinced that the procedure does not raise doubts, especially regarding equality, secrecy, universality, and directness, and the elections were called without violating the constitution – then yes. If it's otherwise, I will weigh the arguments, and it will be a very difficult choice.” -- EVERY GOVERNMENT TREATS LOCAL GOVERNMENT LIKE A FOREIGN BODY - CONTINUED BY SZCZUREK: “As you probably know, I belong to those who are perpetually in opposition. Many of us, local government officials, walk a path where we consciously avoid involvement in party activities. Because it is usually the case that whoever comes to power, they then treat us like a foreign body.” -- SZCZUREK ON ELECTIONS IN A YEAR: “In the summer of next year. We desperately need time to focus on the matters of the profound economic crisis that awaits us, on issues related to material, health, and psychological support. Only then will it be time for a celebration of democracy. With reflection, with freedom and constitutional liberties.” https://tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/szczurek-nikt-mnie-nie-przekona-by-lamac-prawo,269,4724 -- SOCIAL DIVISIONS HAVE INTENSIFIED - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF PIS POLICY - writes in GW: “What will be the consequences of Jarosław Kaczyński's rule? In the immediate future, we face chaos in education and a paralyzed healthcare system. We will inherit a destroyed judiciary, problems with the pension system, and damaged relations with the European Union. And all of this will be accompanied by the effects of the epidemic and economic freeze, meaning rising unemployment and a wave of bankruptcies. However, I would put something else first: the entrenchment of harmful traits, such as constant suspicion, a low level of social trust, and an unwillingness to cooperate. The less we Poles trust each other, the worse society functions and the slower the economy develops. And the harder it will be for us to emerge from the crisis. In a country with a low level of trust, a greater number of people are inclined to think that social activity is pointless. People become overly cautious, uncreative, and reluctant to work in teams. Lack of trust hinders contract formation, cooperation, negotiations, and long-term investments.” -- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE ANACHRONISTIC VISION OF SHARP CONFLICT: “Without a minimum of trust, a strong Poland, a strong community, and a strong economy cannot be rebuilt. Moreover, Professor Zybertowicz already stated in a conversation with Lichocka that the optimal solution for the country is cooperation between the new authorities and elites, even if they politically identify with PO, PSL, or Lewica. Jarosław Kaczyński doesn't understand this; his anachronistic vision assumes governance through sharp conflict, in confrontation with a large part of the citizens and by fueling mutual distrust. This is not the path to strengthening either the state or society.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25930885,polityka-pis-jest-skrojona-pod-potrzeby-emocjonalne-podejrzliwych.html -- POLAND WILL NOT BECOME HUNGARY - ADAM BODNAR IN CONVERSATION WITH W GW: “Past experiences show that we have a chance to avoid this, because, for example, the opposition of legal circles to systemic reforms in Poland was incomparably stronger than on the same issue in Hungary. Similarly, the level of independence of local self-government, which is also extremely important for maintaining democracy. Therefore, I am an optimist, but one who would like to 'task' others with this attitude. I am doing this because I believe we should give even more of ourselves, because what we have given so far is not enough.” -- SOCIAL FRUSTRATION WILL PUSH THE JUDICIARY OFF THE AGENDA - BODNAR BELIEVES: “However, it may also be that the state of epidemic, and consequently the economic recession, will cause us to talk about completely different topics in three months. Social frustration caused by unemployment and lack of public funds for social benefits will lead to the judiciary moving off the main political agenda, and thus it will survive.” -- I WILL CREATE A CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF THE RULE OF LAW AT SWPS - BODNAR CONTINUES IN GW: “I am associated with the Faculty of Law at SWPS University in Warsaw. I will establish a center for the study of the rule of law there. But I will not lock myself in an office. I hope that my public service can be continued, who knows, perhaps for the next 20-30 years?” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25930590,adam-bodnar-dalismy-z-siebie-za-malo-rozleniwilo-nas.html -- SOCIAL DIVISIONS HAVE INTENSIFIED - JAN KOMASA IN CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR ZAREMBA ON POLSAT NEWS: “Certainly, social divisions are widening. Some call from their residences: 'stay home.' And others are struggling in small apartments. And they live in blocks where it's easy to get infected. The pandemic is becoming a battlefield.” -- EVEN NEUTRALS ARE CEASING TO BE NEUTRAL - KOMASA ON THE RIFT: “People confined have even more time to define themselves. The debate becomes heated, the internet is buzzing. But during martial law, energy blocked by the state also found an outlet. Only today it affects everyone. Even neutrals are ceasing to be neutral. And the internet feeds on this with its algorithms. And the elections, which add fuel to the fire. Will this Poland, which will not participate in them, recognize their results? Yes, we are splitting into two Polands. And we will keep splitting until someone from the outside comes and says: if you can't manage to govern, we can help you.” https://tygodnik.polsatnews.pl/news/2020-05-08/jan-komasa-bohater-jest-zly-bo-z-biednej-rodziny-wywiad/ -- PHOTO. Office in a Small Town, Edward Hopper - a 1953 painting by the American realist painter. It is owned by the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York. *The painting depicts a man sitting in a corner office and observing the landscape outside. The painting presents loneliness and beauty in an exceptionally stark yet pleasant way, which is a common theme in Hopper's works. Hopper's wife described it as "a man in a concrete wall".* -- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Cichocki, Justyna Orłowska, Marcin Kędryna (51), Marcin Twaróg, Leszek Czarnecki, SUNDAY: Alicja Chybicka, Barbara Nowacka, Tomasz Szatkowski, Tomasz Chaciński, Michał Marszałek.