state of play: 05/07/2020
POLITICAL GAME: Gowin's Evolution from Appendage to Core Component of the Camp Might Civilize PiS, Bravo: Fundamentally One of the Least Convoluted Solutions Circulating, Oko: Under Certain Conditions, Compromise Can Be Good for Democracy
-- BIELAN ON VESTED RIGHTS OF CANDIDATES IN THE AMENDMENT TO THE ELECTORAL CODE NEXT WEEK, SEJM REJECTS SENATE VETO, MUCHA CONFIRMS REPORTS OF PRIME MINISTER'S MEETING WITH PRESIDENT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/07/
-- BOTH SIDES OF THE RIGHT-WING CIVIL WAR HAVE EMERGED WITH HONOR, THOUGH BRUISED - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “The intention of this solution is for both sides to emerge from the right-wing civil war with honor. Gowin – because there will be no elections in May. Kaczyński – because Gowin and his MPs will vote for the aforementioned law together with PiS. But they emerge more bruised than ever before. Kaczyński had to reach an agreement with a satellite party he disdained, whose leader – Jarosław Gowin – effectively had him backed into a corner. This is the greatest humiliation the PiS leader has experienced in the last five years. The PiS leader was publicly forced to admit that he is not omnipotent and that the entire state machinery he has built over the last five years has failed.”
-- GOWIN'S EVOLUTION FROM APPENDAGE TO CORE COMPONENT OF THE CAMP MIGHT CIVILIZE PiS'S ACTIONS - CONTINUES GĄDEK: “Jarosław Gowin has said from the beginning that elections would not be held in May. He was right. However, his formation, Porozumienie, was partially consumed by the trial by fire, as some MPs declared their disloyalty to Gowin. Nevertheless, Gowin's party has transformed from an appendage – as it was until now – into an indispensable and independent component of the United Right camp. And through this, it can civilize and necessitate PiS's actions. This does not change the fact that Kaczyński will never forgive such disobedience. Never.”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25926005,panstwo-kaczynskiego-nie-dalo-rady-prezes-pis-zostal-publiczne.html
-- THE ABILITY TO FIND A SOLUTION THAT ALLOWS BOTH SIDES TO SAVE FACE IS RARE - PAWEŁ BRAVO IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “But this is merely a ritualistic gesture, indeed necessary in a political culture where losing the ability to admit mistakes is a prerequisite for acceptance into the ranks of any party. Almost equally rare is the ability to seek a way out that allows an opponent to save face. In this particular case, both Jarosławowie have ensured this: Kaczyński avoids the risk of humiliation by a blatant loss of majority in the Sejm and in formal terms does not cancel any elections – he simply acknowledges that the Supreme Court will declare them invalid. Gowin, on his part, can cover up the fact that he finally buckled and did not jump ship from the United Right; instead, he can emphasize that his party will act on equal footing with PiS as the one that 'guarantees Poles the opportunity to participate in democratic elections' and which 'will present proposals for amendments' to the postal voting law, thereby attempting to make it acceptable altogether, which will be discussed further shortly.”
-- THIS IS FUNDAMENTALLY ONE OF THE LEAST CONVOLUTED SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE APPEARED IN CIRCULATION - CONTINUES BRAVO: “This is, in fact, one of the least convoluted solutions that have appeared in circulation in recent weeks. The least convoluted, because it does not require a charade (like, for example, a tactical presidential resignation) or the introduction of an emergency state 'for a moment' which the constitution provides for combating threats, not for postponing deadlines and terms. Moreover, it does not require the hurried creation of many new regulations, as existing ones clearly define the further proceedings of state bodies to ensure subsequent elections can take place. Satisfied that the deadline deadlock has ultimately been resolved, albeit scandalously late, but in a manner that is the least unpleasant overall (and that the ruling coalition will remain intact and can focus on the continued fight against the epidemic and its social consequences), let us move past the issue of the date, as it is not the end of the problem with the elections.”
-- GOWIN EMERGED AS A RESPONSIBLE POLITICIAN WITH A DEGREE OF AUTONOMY, BUT THIS DOES NOT RELEASE US FROM WATCHING EVERYONE CLOSELY - BRAVO'S CONCLUSION: “Indeed, Gowin has emerged in recent weeks as a responsible politician possessing – what a rarity for a Polish politician in the first quarter of the 21st century – a certain degree of autonomy in action, even at the cost of temporary marginalization, for which he will soon face the president's revenge. However, this does not release us from the obligation to closely watch him and all the devils who will continue to be active in this matter.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/pakt-jaroslawow-163287
-- UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS, COMPROMISE CAN BE GOOD FOR POLISH DEMOCRACY - PIOTR PACEWICZ AND MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: “Under certain conditions, the compromise between Jarosław Kaczyński and Jarosław Gowin can be good for Polish democracy. What are these conditions? Kaczyński does not deceive the head of Porozumienie and does not mock citizens again. One thing is certain: the May 10th elections, which would have been a disaster for democracy and incidentally for the opposition, will not take place. Kaczyński has lost this game.”
-- THE POWER TRICK IS GOOD NEWS FOR DEMOCRACY AND CITIZENS - CONTINUES OKO'S AUTHORS: “Gowin and Kaczyński's decision, if understood as we have described, violates the principles of the rule of law and is constitutionally highly questionable. Given the situation created by PiS, the only correct way out would have been to introduce a state of natural disaster. However, this power trick – looking solely at its consequences – is good news for democracy and citizens:
- elections will not be held during a period of significant intensification of the COVID-19 epidemic, which means citizens' health security will not be compromised. Above all, the PiS electorate, which – in an Ipsos poll for OKO.press – declared 87% participation in the May elections.
- candidates' chances will be somewhat more equal, although Duda will certainly continue to use his position to build a competitive advantage, and public media will enthusiastically engage in work;
- elections that were a mockery of democracy and a forceful solution, after which there would be no turning back from the authorities' toughening course and escalation of political conflict, with unimaginable consequences, will not take place;
- citizens will not face the dilemma of whether to vote or boycott.”
-- OKO'S AUTHORS ON DOUBTS REGARDING VESTED RIGHTS: “According to information from 'Wyborcza,' a principle is to be adopted whereby current candidates would not have to re-collect signatures, and 300polityka speaks of 'preserving their vested rights,' although it is difficult to imagine how this could be justified constitutionally. It is unknown whether such a principle – which would have to be established by a Supreme Court ruling – would allow for the appearance of new candidates as well, or if the list would be closed.”
https://oko.press/kaczynski-z-gowinem-dogadali-sie/
-- GOWIN IS THE BIGGEST WINNER, BUT THE QUESTION OF COALITION DURABILITY REMAINS OPEN - ANDRZEJ GAJCY IN ONET BULLETIN: “The biggest winner today appears to be the leader of Porozumienie, who got his way and blocked the May elections. Simultaneously, he prevented the coalition's collapse and perhaps even the government's downfall. Conversely, the biggest loser today seems to be President Kaczyński himself, who was negotiating his capitulation on the May elections with Gowin until Wednesday evening. Gowin won this battle, but the question of the coalition's durability remains open. For PiS's leader will certainly not forget Gowin's 'sins,' and the political sentence will undoubtedly be carried out sooner or later.”
-- SHOULD THE STATE REALLY FUNCTION LIKE THIS? - CONTINUES GAJCY: “In this entire rather grotesque situation, straight out of a Monty Python film, one fundamental question must be asked: should the Polish state and its democratic institutions truly function in this manner? Imagine an analogous situation overseas, where two congressmen in the privacy of their office decide on the verdict of the Supreme Court and when presidential elections will be held. Does such action have anything in common with democracy anymore? Please answer this question for yourself.”
-- ALL OF THE RIGHT-WING'S TROUBLES MAY BE FORGOTTEN - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “If, however, the current president wins the elections and continues to be a tool for President Kaczyński's exercise of power – all troubles may be forgotten. With a bit of luck, the epidemic will remain at its current level and begin to subside, the economy, thanks to subsidies from the despised Union, will survive, and Prime Minister Morawiecki will set about implementing new, grand 'Great Builds of Capitalism.'”
-- PO CAN'T HANDLE ELECTIONS OR THE PANDEMIC, BUT PIS KNOWS THAT LUCK WON'T LAST FOREVER - CONTINUES DĄBROWSKA: “PiS knows well that the luck of not yet having anyone to lose to in parliamentary elections for now will not last forever. Civic Coalition is struggling with both the pandemic and the presidential elections, but this situation can change at any moment, given the dynamics of events. Therefore, guarding the 'chandeliers' is essential. This is not a fight for crystal, but for life.”
https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/200509608-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-PiS-walczy-o-zycie-i-nie-musi-przegrac.html
-- HOŁOWNIA IS HAVING HIS MOMENT LATELY - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK, MAGDALENA CHRZCZONOWICZ, AND SEBASTIAN KLAUZIŃSKI IN OKO: “The significance of this debate for Szymon Hołownia has further increased with the postponement of the elections (likely to July). The question commentators will be asking themselves: will Hołownia hold out? The non-partisan candidate is having his moment lately, as shown by polls and social media engagement. He is competing for second place with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. Statistically, it is a draw (the difference between 15% and 12% is within the margin of statistical error), but the public perception is that Hołownia is the runner-up.”
-- KOSINIAK GAINED QUITE A BIT, TVP VIEWERS COULD SEE HE IS NOT AS TERRIBLE AS PORTRAYED ON TVP - CONTINUES OKO'S AUTHORS: “He could have gained the most, as he was fighting with Andrzej Duda for the votes of those watching the debate. And he gained quite a bit. TVP viewers could see that Kosiniak is not as terrible as the state television has been portraying him for months. He most often directly and energetically attacked the incumbent president, and the president also referred to him, pointing to the leader of the Peasants' Party as his most serious competitor.”
-- KIDWA USED ALL PO CLICHÉS - CONTINUES OKO: “She started well, pointing out to TVP that they are hosting her for the first time in many years. However, later she used all the PO clichés: PiS is bad, and unity builds. There was not even one unconventional statement that would show that the candidate herself and her staff take this performance seriously. She performed relatively best when talking about 500 plus (that it hasn't solved social problems in Poland) and about people with disabilities (that they are left to themselves).”
-- OKO'S AUTHOR AND AUTHORS PRAISE DUDA FOR ROME, BUT WRITE THAT HE RECYCLED OLD TUNES BUT IT WAS EVIDENT THAT THE SECOND ROUND WOULD NOT BE DECIDED EASILY: “Rome – that’s where Andrzej Duda would go on his first trip in a new term. It is a surprising but interesting choice. The President would go to a European country that has suffered the most during the pandemic, and at the same time is a symbol of many Poles' aspirations (trips to Italy, which will not happen now). However, apart from this one moment, Duda recycled old tunes. Most often, the one about the good cooperation between the president and the government. He boasted about PiS's social programs and good cooperation with the government. Duda will have to fight. The annulment of the May 10th elections means he has not escaped an easy victory in conditions of boycott by a significant portion of the opposition voters. He is still the favorite, but a second round with Hołownia, Kosiniak-Kamysz, or a new KO candidate is by no means a foregone conclusion. And this was evident in the TVP debate.”
https://oko.press/co-wiemy-po-debacie-prezydenckiej-w-tvp/
-- I AM THE ONLY PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE - ROBERT BIEDROŃ IN CONVERSATION WITH PAULINA JANUSZEWSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “I am the only progressive candidate. I am fighting against precarious contracts, I am fighting for the secularization of the state and its subordinate institutions. Meanwhile, Szymon Hołownia, for example, cannot clearly state his position on these matters. He is more church-oriented than progressive, but he doesn't want to alienate left-wing voters, so he avoids answering. And I believe we owe voters clear views and declarations, without beating around the bush.”
-- BOYCOTT GUARANTEES DUDA'S SUCCESS - CONTINUES BIEDROŃ: “Such a potential scenario certainly proves that boycotting elections is not a solution. Not participating in elections condemns us to Andrzej Duda's rule, without putting up any fight. Therefore, I believe it is worth voting, trying to remove Duda from power. From a pragmatic point of view, a boycott is the best gift one can give to Duda and Kaczyński.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/robert-biedron-wybory-prezydenckie-2020-rozmowa/
-- PI'S ANTI-INSTITUTIONAL PHILOSOPHY IS CLOSER TO SCHMITT THAN PLATO - MICHAŁ RZECZYCKI IN KLUB JAGIELLOŃSKI: “The ruling party, by using the access to broader initiative that comes with holding the highest state offices and a majority in the Sejm, essentially leaves the opposition with very little room for maneuver. To frame this situation using concepts coined by Carl Schmitt, United Right, exploiting the crisis caused by the coronavirus, seeks to constitute itself as sovereign will. This fact has been exposed by the tension between party interest and the 'emergency' procedure being implemented by the government to allow elections in May – whether by mail or by legally dubious postponement of their date, even to May 23rd. It is difficult to describe otherwise the situation where Law and Justice, forced to choose between Andrzej Duda's lower chances for a second term and legally questionable elections in May, opts for the latter.”
-- THE PREVIOUS ELECTION OF CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL JUDGES BY PO OPENED THE WAY FOR SUCCESSORS TO PLAY EVEN MORE DISREGARDING RULES - CONTINUES THE AUTHOR FROM KLUB JAGIELLOŃSKI: “The previous election of judges by Platforma Obywatelska in May 2015 opened the door for their successors, who decided that a foul by an opponent allowed them to play with even greater disregard for the rules. Pushing for the May elections is an action precisely in the spirit of increasingly serious rule violations. The current situation, where the institutional mechanisms of legal control have been weakened, threatens a real explosion of Polish-Polish war. Perhaps Jarosław Kaczyński is an outstanding party tactician, but the controlled conflict management he employs is destructive to Poland's already weak political culture. In the struggle to gain the position of true sovereign, institutions are falling victim. The specter looms on the horizon that the Polish-Polish war will become a war of all against all.”
-- WHETHER JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI IS AS GREAT A GENIUS IN THE REALM OF THE COMMON GOOD AS HE IS IN PARTY STRATEGY - I HAVE DOUBTS - CONCLUSION OF THE AUTHOR FROM KLUB JAGIELLOŃSKI: “Laws can be worse or better. There will always be tension between the regulations currently in force and the demands of justice. Good politics consists of a kind of dialectic that proceeds between these two alternatives, striving for a synthesis that will be expressed in the realization of the best laws and the best institutions. However, on an ideological level, Law and Justice has decided to choose only moral norms from this opposition, while neglecting the importance of actual institutions. Prioritizing vision over reality, combined with a confrontational tactic of struggle for power, will produce increasingly poisoned fruit: the Polish-Polish war is beginning to resemble a snowball rolling down a high mountain. This snowball is already very large. Perhaps Jarosław Kaczyński is a genius of party tactics. However, I have serious doubts whether he is equally brilliant in the realm of the common good.”
https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/05/06/patriotyzm-rewolucyjny-antyinstytucjonalna-filozofia-pis-blizej-schmitta-niz-platona/
-- EWA BŁASZCZYK ON ŁUKASZ SZUMOWSKI - SOMEONE ON THE LEVEL OF PROF. RELIGA: “- He always listened to me carefully; I knew that if he said he would do something, he would; I could trust him. He seemed to me a modest, wise person, without a huge ego. Someone on the level of Professor Religa – added Błaszczyk.”
https://gwiazdy.wp.pl/ewa-blaszczyk-minister-zdrowia-lukasz-szumowski-6507868860999809a
-- JOANNA SOLSKA ON THE TRICK OF SUSPENDING EMPLOYMENT: “The most interesting thing is that none of the business organizations came up with the idea of suspending employment as a prelude to dismissal, at least nothing is known about it. On the other hand, it is increasingly being said that the state, which owns the largest Polish enterprises with high overstaffing, is interested in easier ways to part with employees. And incidentally, those suspended will spoil the unemployment statistics a few months later, and it is not unlikely that this will happen after the elections.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/1955506,1,przerywany-stosunek-pracy.read
-- RAFAŁ WOŚ ARGUES FOR JOB GUARANTEE - as written in Tygodnik Powszechny: “A job guarantee carries a much lower risk of uncontrolled price growth than, for example, basic income. Many economists even argue that guaranteed work will stabilize prices. Australian economist William Mitchell shows that the wool production sector there worked exactly that way. The government guaranteed a minimum price for it, buying it when the market price fell below a certain level, and selling it when it rose above. This way, for years, it was possible to ensure not only price stability for the raw material on which many Australian free producers rely, but also their consumption incomes, which stabilizes the inflation rate. The labor market will be similar. A job guarantee will only set a lower limit below which payment in the economy will not be possible. However, it will not permanently fuel wage expectations. This can only happen when the economy begins to approach its full productive capacity. However, there is still a long way to go for this in most developed countries.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/bezrobocia-moze-nie-byc-163288
-- PHOTO. Portrait of the Regents of an Old Men's Home in Haarlem (1664), Frans Hals Museum, Haarlem. *“Even at the end of his life, when his popularity had waned, he received two more important commissions for group portraits of regents and regentesses of old people's homes. This was to be a form of payment for the care he received at this institution after he had become impoverished.”*
-- *Hals was one of the first to use spontaneous brushwork and thick impastos of 'blinding,' pure white contrasting with the generally dark tonality of his paintings (this is particularly characteristic of his later period). He painted alla prima, directly on the canvas. This is evidenced by the lack of preparatory drawings, which he most likely did not make at all (or they have not survived). Hals is one of the most outstanding portraitists in the European painting tradition. He painted group and individual portraits, as well as genre scenes.*
-- THE HISTORY OF THE PAINTING -- INCLUDING CONSPIRACY THEORIES -- - RADIO TRÓJKA PROGRAM: *And what is the history of the painting that inspired the calendar creators? - We have five figures here, but I have a conspiracy theory that a sixth is cleverly hidden and is in the cuff of one of the figures - said painter Henryk Cześnik in Trójka. The artist also admitted that there are more conspiracy theories associated with the painting.*
https://www.polskieradio.pl/9/4631/Artykul/1471799,Obraz-z-tajemnica-w-mankiecie
-- BIRTHDAYS: Jan Okoński, Stanisław Żółtek, Karol Okoński, Monika Antkiewicz.
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