-- THE SENATE WILL SEND THE RESOLUTION TO THE SEJM ONLY AFTER THE SESSION CONCLUDES, ADDING 2 MORE ITEMS TO THE AGENDA - 300POLITYKA: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/06/uchwala-senatu-ws-ustawy-o-glosowaniu-korespondencyjnym-nie-trafi-do-sejmu-wczesniej-niz-poznym-popoludniem-kancelaria-izby-przypomina-ze-dokumenty-zazwyczaj-wysylane-sa-w-pakiecie-po-zakonczeniu-p/ -- BUDKA ON THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL NOT BEING ABLE TO EXPAND THE SEJM MARSHAL'S POWERS, JACKOWSKI ON THE STATE OF DEFEAT, WYPIJ ON THE MAY ELECTIONS DAMAGING STATE AUTHORITY, KUKIZ ON PRESSURE FROM A POULTRY COMPANY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/06/ -- I AM NOT CHANGING MY RECOMMENDATION - ŁUKASZ SZUMOWSKI IN RZ IN CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ: “No. In Bavaria, there was no increase in infections after the postal elections. There is no evidence of this. We analyzed the available data from Bavaria. We checked this at the Robert Koch Institute as well. Studies show that any decrease in infections could have been faster than it was, but there was definitely no increase in infections in Bavaria due to postal elections. The state of North Rhine-Westphalia had a similar curve to Bavaria at the same time, and there were no elections there. There is no hard data showing that postal elections affect the increase in the number of infections. There is data showing that traditional elections increase the number of infections. My recommendation, which is strictly medical, does not recommend traditional elections for the next two years. Probably, the available data should be verified again today. Traditional elections were held in Korea, and we have no data to suggest they disrupted the curve. However, I gave a recommendation regarding elections, and I am not changing it.” -- POSTAL ELECTIONS LIKE E-PRESCRIPTIONS - SZUMOWSKI CONTINUES: “I will vote for postal elections. We must have the ability to conduct elections regardless of when they take place. The idea of postal elections is very good and necessary, like the e-prescription we introduced. I understand the organizational concerns and concerns about refining postal elections, but I don't understand the opposition's logic, which doesn't want the least risky idea of traditional elections in two years. And if they are to be held sooner, then postal elections are the way to go.” -- SZUMOWSKI FEARS TWO EPIDEMICS IN THE FALL: “We are before the peak. The infection rate is currently at 1, meaning one person infects one person. This means a precarious balance. Either we will go up again, or we will go down. This does not mean the virus will disappear. The coronavirus will remain in the population. Today, we are preparing for autumn, because two epidemics could break out at the same time. I fear autumn the most.” -- BORDERS WILL BE OPENED LAST - SZUMOWSKI CONTINUES: “Flights are unlikely for now, but let's wait. Borders will be opened last.” -- SZUMOWSKI WILL RECOMMEND MANDATORY VACCINATION - FURTHER IN RZ: “Let's wait for final decisions until vaccines become available and their effects are known, but that is what I will recommend.” https://www.rp.pl/Zdrowie-/200509716-Szumowski-Kaczynski-nigdy-na-mnie-nie-naciskal.html -- THE GOVERNMENT POINTLESSLY FROZE THE ECONOMY - ANDRZEJ SOŚNIERZ IN DZIENNIK ZACHODNI with Marcin ZASADA: “We are currently at the peak of the epidemic, and we are loosening restrictions. The justification? Probably only political, because the epidemic curve provides no arguments for loosening life in the country. And if so, the question arises: why did we introduce them at all? For 2 months, we pointlessly froze the economy, incurring billions of losses. Now we are lifting restrictions when the epidemic is growing. This contradicts all logic, and there is unfortunately only one explanation: the elections. But what are people supposed to think about all this? If they understand that the government made a mistake, how can they be disciplined further? This will be a self-inflicted drama.” -- IN TWO WEEKS WE WILL BE AT THE PEAK OF INFECTIONS - SOŚNIERZ CONTINUES: “We are in a position to consider other options, but first, it would be good to know what we are talking about at all. We don't want to say 'no just because.' Only which elections? It's impossible organizationally now, because in terms of epidemiology, it would even be safe. In two weeks, it will be the opposite, because – looking at the course of the epidemic – we will be at the peak.” -- SOŚNIERZ ON THE ATTEMPTS TO SWAY POROZUMIENIE DEPUTIES - THE MOVEMENT IS IN THE OTHER DIRECTION! - CONTINUES IN DZIENNIK ZACHODNI: “The movement is rather in the other direction. Our group of those willing to vote against has grown. So the tactic has backfired. Perhaps by the end of the week, we will all realize that elections are not the most important thing right now. This whole story with the epidemic will be a great warning to the political class in Poland: both the government and the opposition. What did we do, what did we spend our time on, what economic damage did we suffer, and why. What did that legendary 'flattening' achieve for us? By getting excited about elections to choose one person, we are destroying the state.” https://dziennikzachodni.pl/sosnierz-co-dalo-nam-to-legendarne-wyplaszczanie-rzad-bezsensownie-zamrozil-gospodarke-ekscytujac-sie-wyborami-rozwalamy-panstwo/ar/c1-14954556 -- 9 DEPUTIES FROM POROZUMIENIE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “PiS is in a very difficult situation. Strategies are changing by the hour. Little time remains, and the pressure on the Porozumienie deputies is increasing: still a dozen or so, at worst nine, are ready to vote against the postal voting bill. That is enough for it to be thrown out.” -- ELECTIONS IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT LOCAL GOVERNMENTS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “The head of the National Electoral Commission, Sylwester Marciniak, told 'Rzeczpospolita' that elections in May could be organized based on the existing Electoral Code in such a short time – i.e., by May 23 – only if 'the legal status and cooperation between government and local government bodies are unambiguously regulated.' This is a signal to the government: we cannot do it without local governments.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25922916,gowin-ma-co-najmniej-9-szabel-pis-boi-sie-samorzadow-co-wiemy.html -- THE PRESIDENT DECIDED THAT THE CLASH WITH GOWIN MUST BE ACCELERATED BECAUSE IT IS INEVITABLE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Kaczyński decided that the clash with Gowin must be accelerated, as it is inevitable anyway. He announced on Monday through his associates that either Gowin's people will support postal voting on Thursday, or they will be expelled from the PiS club.” -- WIELOWIEYSKA'S INTERESTING INSIGHT INTO HOW ZIOBRO'S AND GOWIN'S POLITICIANS GAINED RECOGNITION THROUGH PiS'S INFORMATION POLICY: “The situation changed after last year's parliamentary elections because Gowin brought 18 deputies to the Sejm. Zbigniew Ziobro's Solidarna Polska also has its group. This surprised Kaczyński because candidates from further down the list won seats, while deserving and loyal activists like Piotr Naimski lost out. This was the result of PiS's information policy, whose press office blocked candidates from this party from appearing in the media. Kaczyński wanted control over who appeared publicly and thus punish media independent of the government. This gap was filled by Gowin's and Ziobro's people. They were not subject to the press office's orders, they went to the media, became recognizable, and therefore won seats.” -- KACZYŃSKI BELIEVED IN HIS OMNIPOTENCE - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “If the PiS leader had not gone to the mat over TVP and the elections, perhaps United Right would still exist. Much suggests that Kaczyński miscalculated, believed in his omnipotence, and his instinct failed him. He did not understand that insisting on postal voting on May 10 would end in embarrassment on many levels.” -- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE SYNERGY OF GOWIN AND PSL: “Gowin's calculation is then simple. He is forming a center-right formation with PSL and deputies from Kukiz's movement. They have a chance for a decent result, especially given the burnout of PiS and the war within this camp between Mateusz Morawiecki's faction and Zbigniew Ziobro's faction. In terms of ideological profile, PSL has reoriented itself in the same direction as Gowin. They are focusing on small and large entrepreneurs and the moderate right-wing electorate. They will have the support, or at least the benevolent neutrality, of the clergy. For Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, this will be an opportunity to clearly distance himself from the 'terrible rainbow coalition,' as PiS has labeled him. And to rebuild his electorate in the countryside.” -- ANNOYED BY HOŁOWNIA - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “The only thing that annoys them is Szymon Hołownia, because if he forms his own party, he might take away some votes, similar to Civic Platform. If Hołownia is weak, PSL and Gowin will try to make a deal with him and bring him into the coalition.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25921921,kulisy-konfliktu-kaczynski-gowin-prezes-wybral-opcje.html -- THE OLSEN GANG IN A FRENZY - JAROSŁAW FLIS IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “What a beautiful catastrophe… It is now certain that the elections will not take place this coming Sunday, although just a week ago PiS leaders assured that there was no problem with this at all. And a month ago, they didn't even consider the option that something bad might happen. The only question is whether Gowin and his most loyal companions will save face for them, or whether they will smash it against the wall of reality. (...) It is worth remembering that the next episode after 'The Olsen Gang in a Frenzy' was titled 'The Olsen Gang's Last Heist.'” -- TO CONDUCT A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND WITHIN THE CONSTITUTIONAL 14-DAY PERIOD, VOTING IN CITIES WOULD REQUIRE HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE - FLIS CONTINUES, BASED ON CALCULATIONS FROM THE BAVARIAN MODEL: “Such expanded commissions in the largest cities would consist of hundreds of members, which requires prior development of some detailed procedures and the establishment of structures within the commissions. This is an extremely difficult task to carry out in a short time and in epidemic conditions. Furthermore, in light of the current electoral code, the division of commissions into teams is contrary to the law. It also raises serious concerns about the fairness of the elections. There is no indication that any safeguards against the formation of politically homogenous teams are currently being considered. The decisions of such a team regarding the incompleteness of the electoral package are indisputable and non-verifiable post factum.” -- FLIS ON THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF THE RESULT: “Even more important is to realize that 13.7 million voters who did not vote in 2015, under the law of April 6, would have received electoral packages in their mailboxes. One out of twenty-six of these votes would have been enough to change the winner of those elections. The question arises what will happen to these millions of votes. And will anyone accept the outcome of a competition conducted in such unpredictable conditions? Regardless of who wins, they will find dozens of justifications to challenge the formal result. It cannot be denied that many of these justifications may be convincing.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/gang-olsena-w-amoku-163282 -- SOME CONVERSATIONS WITH DEPUTIES WERE REPORTEDLY RECORDED - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ AND ANDRZEJ GAJCY IN ONET: “The behavior of the 'Gowinites' can undoubtedly be influenced by informal conversations that have been ongoing for many days within the ruling camp. They aimed at only one thing: to break the stubborn deputies using compromising material and threats, or to convince the undecided with ministerial positions in the government or lucrative positions in state-owned companies. Some of these conversations – as Onet journalists have heard from several Porozumienie politicians – were allegedly recorded and are in their possession. The disclosure of corrupt recordings by Gowin's people would undoubtedly be a major problem for Kaczyński's party, and could also have a significant impact on the presidential elections.” -- BRUDZIŃSKI, SZYDŁO, AND ZIOBRO ARE ADVOCATING FOR THE SCENARIO OF EARLY ELECTIONS, WITH RECKONINGS WITH MORAWIECKI IN THE BACKGROUND - FURTHER ONET: “All the more so because Kaczyński is openly threatening Gowin with early Sejm elections. In the event of quick parliamentary elections, Gowin and his people could completely disappear from politics, unless they manage to join the opposition lists – there is talk of PSL. In PiS, there is a belief that Sejm elections would give the party a majority government today. Perhaps this is the last such moment before the financial crisis related to the epidemic worsens moods and lowers the government's ratings. This scenario – as we hear in the ruling party – is being advocated to the PiS leader by, among others, Beata Szydło, Joachim Brudziński, and Zbigniew Ziobro, who would also gladly get rid of Mateusz Morawiecki and settle their personal scores with the head of government. Another matter is that additional Sejm elections in a situation where there is a war over the presidential elections pose an extraordinary epidemic, political, and organizational risk.” -- A STATE OF EMERGENCY OR THE PRESIDENT'S RESIGNATION ARE THE ONLY SCENARIOS THAT ALLOW FOR LEGAL ELECTIONS - FURTHER ONET: “We know that the PiS leadership considered such a solution. In one of the legal analyses commissioned by the party, the president's resignation was deemed a more favorable solution than introducing a state of natural disaster. However, after our reports, President Andrzej Duda took offense – which indicates that he does not intend to participate in such a scenario. However, a state of emergency or the president's resignation are the only solutions that enable PiS to legally postpone the elections in case of defeat in the Sejm vote on the postal voting law. And if the party loses this vote, changing the election date will be necessary.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/co-z-koalicja-co-z-rzadem-co-z-wyborami-przedstawiamy-mozliwe-scenariusze/thcxwe6 -- PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN AUGUST ARE A BLUFF OR SUICIDE - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI IN KLUB JAGIELLOŃSKI: “It is hard to believe that such a multi-week squabble and further moves incomprehensible from the perspective of PiS voters will allow the ruling camp's politicians to win in August. Further blaming the opposition and Gowin will cease to sound credible even to the most loyal voters. In the event of August elections, it should be expected that even they would punish both PiS and Andrzej Duda. If not by voting for competitors – then at least by demobilization.” -- THAT WOULD BE SPECTACULAR SUICIDE - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES ON THE SCENARIO OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: “In summary: parliamentary elections in August are currently simply a scare tactic intended to mobilize Porozumienie politicians to toe the line, and opposition politicians – to cooperate on conducting postal elections. The implementation of constitutional scenarios that could lead to shortening the term seems either almost impossible (self-dissolution) or condemns the ruling party and the president to a series of chaotic, incomprehensible moves for voters. It therefore seems almost certain that by spreading rumors about a possible shortening of the term, Kaczyński is bluffing. The decision to withdraw from government while having a parliamentary majority is political suicide that would have to end in a spectacular electoral defeat in August for both Andrzej Duda and PiS.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/05/05/wybory-parlamentarne-w-sierpniu-blef-kaczynskiego-albo-samobojstwo-prawicy-scenariusze/ -- KACZYŃSKI SAW THE LIMITS OF HIS EMPIRE - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: “But it's not just about the number. Even those four or five deputies who would stand with the leader of Porozumienie would mean that the government majority could rely on a single vote. In the long run, it's impossible to govern like this, which means the PiS leader will have to look for a new formula. And this is one of the goals that Gowin pursued by starting the game about the elections. Regardless of the tactical dexterity of the PiS leader, two things have already happened. Firstly, Kaczyński has lost the comfort of governing. Secondly, the certainty of a majority in the Sejm.” -- BY SEEKING TO CONSOLIDATE POWER, PiS HAS WEAKENED IT - CONCLUSION OF THE DGP AUTHORS: “If the conflict with the Gowin camp is not extinguished, the ruling camp faces serious instability. Much depends on how battered Porozumienie emerges from this confrontation. In PiS, there are opinions that Gowin is considering the option of the party's disintegration and its partial exit from the good change camp. Yesterday, while Gowin was negotiating at Nowogrodzka, three of his activists, including vice-chairmen, held a conference where they urged for elections in May. Perhaps – according to one of the interlocutors – Gowin is thinking about creating a political center in a new formula, for example with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Paweł Kukiz, and some PO activists. Paradoxically, it may turn out that PiS, by pushing its own variants to consolidate the right-wing power, will lead to its weakening.” https://forsal.pl/artykuly/1474637,kaczynski-zobaczyl-granice-swojego-imperium-opinia.html -- EARLIER ELECTIONS ARE A RISK FOR PLATFORMA AND LEWICA - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “But this is also likely an act of desperation. However, it is not so easy to shorten the Sejm's term. Perhaps, therefore, it is an appeal not so much to the Porozumienie deputies, but rather to the opposition. (...) However, earlier elections are not profitable for PO. The largest opposition party has no reason to help PiS, which is threatened by turmoil. It is more profitable for it to wait for PiS to pay the price for the chaos, as well as the consequences of the economic crisis. The biggest risk of earlier elections would be for Lewica today. And perhaps its deputies were the real addressees of Kaczyński's threat.” -- PSL AND KONFEDERACJA WITH THE WIND IN THEIR SAILS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Accelerated elections would be very beneficial for the Peasants' Party, which, thanks to Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz's good campaign, could even double its representation in the Sejm. Konfederacja is in a similar situation, having caught the wind in its sails in recent months.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200509713-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Kto-sie-boi-wczesniejszych-wyborow.html -- LIKE FIGHTING THE LERNEAN HYDRA, WHICH GROWS NEW HEADS - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “Largely for reasons beyond our control (February's uncertainty about how we would get through the epidemic), and to some extent due to our own fault (political tug-of-war), but the problem surrounding the date and method of conducting elections has begun to resemble fighting the Lernaean Hydra. The main problem with successive legal, political, and technical difficulties is that for every severed head, two or even three new ones grow. In mythology, it is said that there could be several heads, or even a hundred – Heracles toiled, but eventually dealt with them.” -- THE MOST OBVIOUS SCENARIO IS A STATE OF EMERGENCY AND ELECTIONS IN AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “We are all losing from this, regardless of our views, assessments, or even sympathies. Voters of one, second, or third party, regardless of whether they believe the successive daily narratives, see only the great incompetence and makeshift nature of the Polish state. This has nothing to do with sanation understood as the healing of public life. The attempt to fight successive heads of the hydra by consistently severing them has led Polish politics to a bend, beyond which a total reset regarding both presidential and parliamentary elections is increasingly clearly sketched. The most obvious and natural scenario is on the table, in which the elections – whether traditional, postal, or mixed (which would only require an amendment to the law, already adopted in recent weeks, or at least its interpretation or compliance with the task-based law) – are postponed by 90-100 days due to a state of emergency. By August or September, one can calmly prepare technically, train the necessary personnel, prepare polling stations, or deliver postal ballots, thereby eliminating at least some of today's controversies.” -- FIJOŁEK ON BACKROOM TALKS BETWEEN PIS AND PO - DOORS WERE CLOSED, NOT OPENED - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “In the end, the doors were rather closed than opened. On top of all this, political fear about the electoral effects of the economic downturn was added. In my opinion, this is exaggerated, because Andrzej Duda and his position – especially against such opponents – are not significantly threatened by anything. Nevertheless, for some reason, it was decided that August would be a much more difficult political playing field for the head of state than May. Over time, all this dynamic was spiced up with ambitions and emotions, which were not lacking in PiS, Gowin's party, or among other participants in this entire process. There were rumors in the corridors about backroom talks between PiS and PO about finding a way out of this stalemate, but the expectations of both sides are probably too far apart to talk about compromise (which has become almost synonymous with defeat in Polish politics). All the more so because it would likely entail some form of discomfort for everyone.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/498787-kryzys-wokol-wyborow-przypomina-walke-z-hydra-lernejska -- PiS WILL CRASH HEADLONG INTO THE WALL - EWA SIEDLECKA: “The favorite trick of PiS – a dispute over competences – cannot be applied here either. Because who is Marshal Witek in dispute with? Is anyone besides her trying to set the election date? Nothing is known about it. On the face of it, it seems that PiS, propelled by its drive for elections, will soon crash headlong into a wall. But we remember that the imagination of PiS politicians and lawyers is inexhaustible, their horizons are boundless, and their courage in crossing the boundaries of the rule of law is immeasurable. Therefore, I wait with fascination for Wednesday morning: what will emerge from Marshal Witek's pen? Whatever it is, it will certainly go down in the history of legislative thought. And one can only pity the brilliant lawyer who prepares it but does not sign it with their own name.” https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2020/05/05/pis-zderzy-sie-ze-sciana-czy-ja-przebije/?nocheck=1 -- MACIEJ GDULA RESPONDS IN KRYTYKA on Hołownia's letter to Lewica: “Apart from the climate demands, we are divided by virtually everything. Although Hołownia claims he wants to end the ritualistic PiS vs. anti-PiS conflict, and we want that too. However, we are interested in change, which this conflict is blocking. Hołownia, on the other hand, simply wants to freeze the discussion on many issues that determine the country we live in on a daily basis.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/maciej-gdula-wiecej-nas-jednak-dzieli-odpowiedz-na-list-holowni/ -- JACEK KARNOWSKI ON WPOLITYCE REFLECTIVELY ABOUT THE WORLD POST-PANDEMIC - THE NEW WORLD MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE FOR THE WORSE: “The world is already changing. Suburban summer resorts experienced an invasion of Varsovians seeking their own plots of land last weekend. Advertisements that were of no interest for years are now being analyzed by dozens of people. A piece of forest, a field, by the river or not, is becoming an attractive offer. It can become an escape and an alternative to currently inaccessible trips to further places or abroad. A very sensible behavior: a plot is a relatively cheap, simple, and easy solution. And attractive, especially against the backdrop of declining attractiveness of city life. A new world awaits, at least for a while. Maybe everything will return to 'normal,' or maybe we are starting a journey in a completely new direction? Maybe not necessarily a worse one?” https://wpolityce.pl/spoleczenstwo/498803-polska-tez-juz-sie-zmienia-zamiast-na-lotnisko-na-dzialke -- PHOTO: The Land of Plenty (Land of Laziness, Land of Gluttons) – painting by the Dutch painter Pieter Brueghel the Elder, Alte Pinakothek in Munich. The painting is the painter's fantasy about abundance in the form of food. Brueghel depicts three figures lying around a tree on which a table is mounted. On it, remnants of food and whole portions of chicken are visible. The figures are: a nobleman, a scholar, and a peasant. All, after eating their fill of porridge, eggs, meat, and poultry, are sleeping spread out on the ground; the knight's head rests on a pillow, the scholar's on a fur cloak, and the peasant's on a flail. Beside them lie their artifacts: part of armor, a book, paper. Despite class differences, they are united by one thing – the need to satisfy hunger. -- Zbigniew Wodecki would have celebrated his 70th birthday today. -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Prządek, Marcin Zawiła, Witold Bereś.