state of play: 04/25/2020

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Karnowski on the new 'Three Tenors' rising from PO's ruins, Stankiewicz on PO's defeat, Wielowieyska on PiS's gamble against a weakened Duda, Rokita on Kaczyński's room to maneuver and the absurdity of a state of emergency

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE ASKS RIVALS ABOUT THEIR STANCE ON HEALTHCARE PRIVATIZATION, PM ON REOPENING AND ANOTHER RELIEF SHIELD - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/04/25/ -- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ WRITES IN FAKT ABOUT THE PLATFORM'S DEFEAT: “Kidawa’s defeat. Although it’s unknown if and when the presidential elections will take place, one thing is certain – the Civic Coalition candidate has already lost them. Polls show that Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska can count on only a few percent of support. This is one of the reasons why PO wants to postpone the elections – they hope to be able to change the candidate.” -- THE OPPOSITION IS TEARING ITSELF APART - STANKIEWICZ FURTHER IN Fakt: “The opposition is tearing itself apart. Poll results fuel internal conflicts within the opposition. The Peasants’ Party is not at all offended by the May elections because they hope their leader will reach the second round. Therefore, it will not be easy for the Platform to block the presidential vote. Its leader, Borys Budka, is trying to reach an agreement on this matter with Jarosław Gowin, who left the PiS government. The Left does not want to hear about a pact with Gowin, considering him Kaczyński’s spy.” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/andrzej-stankiewicz-podsumowuje-tydzien/xfzpf5p -- IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO UNDERSTAND THE LEFT'S STANCE - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Regarding the presidential elections, the Left’s position has not been this inconsistent for a long time. Is anyone on the left even analyzing what is happening in Poland? Yes, I understand the distrust of Jarosław Gowin; no one is forcing the Left to embrace him. But Gowin – contrary to what left-wing politicians say – is not playing along with Jarosław Kaczyński; he is genuinely determined to postpone the elections. Although it is not 100% certain whether he will have enough votes in the Sejm to support the Senate’s amendments together with the opposition. However, the Left voting together with PiS for the elections to proceed will be truly difficult to understand.” -- KACZYŃSKI WANTS TO WEAKEN DUDA TO CONTROL HIM - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER: “Kaczyński also wants the legality of Duda’s election to be questioned, because then he will have him under control. He fears that if the current president has strong electoral legitimacy, he might become independent. After all, this will be his last term, and he might already be thinking about how Poles will remember him. After an illegal vote, Duda will be more compliant with his political camp and leader. -- DUDA'S CHANCES IN POSTPONED ELECTIONS ARE STILL HIGH, BUT THE POINT IS FOR HIM TO WIN FAIRLY - WIELOWIEYSKA'S CONCLUSION: “Unlike other commentators, I believe that Andrzej Duda’s chances of victory, for example in August or September, remain very high. However, from my point of view as a citizen, it is not so much about who wins, but that he wins fairly and that no one questions his mandate. This is what Poland's interest requires. If postal elections must take place, they need to be properly prepared and procedures refined.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25895403,wybory-prezydenckie-nie-sposob-zrozumiec-o-co-chodzi-lewicy.html -- THE ENTIRE STATE APPARATUS IS WORKING TOWARDS A SINGLE ELECTION SCENARIO - JAK ROKITA ON POLSAT NEWS: “However, to paralyze the election date, a so-called 'vacatio legis' for postal voting regulations would be sufficient. It is already clear that the entire state apparatus, starting with the government, through the postal service (which would play a significant role), and ending with the National Electoral Commission, is working towards a single election scenario. That is, it only assumes a postal voting model or postponement. As far as I closely observe the pre-election activities of various state bodies, it seems no one is even trying to work on an alternative to 'normal' elections, in case the 'postal' tactic fails. Therefore, these 'normal' elections – with polling stations and booths – will be impossible to conduct, regardless of any real or imagined sanitary threats that would likely arise in such a scenario.” -- ABSURDITY, A STATE OF EMERGENCY WOULD MAKE NO SENSE FOR PiS AT ALL - ROKITA FURTHER: “Such a step by PiS, however, would make no sense at all, for at least two reasons. Firstly, such a presidential decision would require Sejm approval, which would naturally be questionable. And secondly, to achieve its current goals, the ruling party does not need to restrict freedoms. On the contrary – it benefits from presenting itself as a defender of democratic rights in a situation where, paradoxically, it is the opposition, not the government, that wants to postpone elections, having an obvious interest in doing so – namely, the hope of improving its currently poor poll numbers at some point. Moreover, it is hard to imagine that Andrzej Duda, who is after all seeking to renew his mandate sooner or later, would want to get involved in an additional dispute over civil liberties, in which he would have to stand alongside Viktor Orbán as a candidate to be branded for 'authoritarian tendencies' by the European Commission. The entire idea of a state of emergency therefore belongs to the category of political absurdity.” -- ROKITA ON KACZYŃSKI'S BELOVED ROOM TO MANEUVER: “It is quite likely that Gowin himself anticipates precisely this perspective of an 'agreement with Kaczyński' after the political defeat and humiliation of the PiS leader. It is not impossible that he might even be contemplating the price a humiliated Kaczyński would be willing to pay for such a 'conversion' of the Gowin faction; for instance, returning the position of Sejm Marshal to Gowin himself. From a psychological perspective, such an 'admission of defeat' is certainly not typical behavior for Kaczyński, so the probability of this scenario is low. And even more so because PiS would have no political interest in entrusting the entire future of its governance to a small group of Gowin supporters, who would from then on always decide what PiS can and cannot do, effectively depriving Kaczyński himself of political agency and his beloved, peculiar 'room to maneuver,' which allows him to make sudden U-turns with the guarantee of obedience and loyalty from the entire party.” -- BUT ROKITA STILL ASSUMES KACZYŃSKI WILL WIN THE GAME: “Increasingly, it appears that Jarosław Kaczyński will win this confrontation after all. And this will mean that everything will remain as it was: Morawiecki's cabinet will fight the plague and the economic crisis, and Duda will be elected for another term in May. However, I dedicate this brief analysis to an alternative scenario, which is less likely, but by no means impossible.” https://tygodnik.polsatnews.pl/news/2020-04-24/a-jesli-kaczynski-przegra/ -- KACZYŃSKI CONSIDERED SZUMOWSKI'S RECOMMENDATION TOO HESITANT, BUT CONSIDERED MAKING SZUMOWSKI DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “The PiS headquarters at Nowogrodzka Street, and in reality its main resident, did not react with satisfaction at all. Jarosław Kaczyński considered Szumowski's recommendation too hesitant. Although he values him highly, although he considered making the professor a deputy prime minister, this time he felt disappointed. In his opinion, the minister did not fully support the May election date. He did it in a way that was too veiled and conditional.” -- PEOPLE WITH UNDENIABLE ACHIEVEMENTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO THE ROLE OF PUPILS - ZAREMBA FURTHER: “This, in turn, is another problem. By imposing a deadly test of constant loyalty on all his subordinates, always remaining not fully satisfied with them and distrustful of them, the PiS leader has reduced them all to the role of pupils constantly trembling before an unexpected pop quiz. When exactly did people with undeniable achievements, professional standing, allow themselves to be imposed this role? A topic for a separate text. Today, it is already a whole system. The state, creaking and grinding, operates like a worn-out machine controlled by the will of one person.” -- GROUNDS FOR ELECTORAL PROTESTS ARE SPECTACULAR - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN RZ: “Whether the opposition's main motive is genuine civic concern or fear of the ruling camp's candidate Andrzej Duda's excellent poll results is of secondary importance. The arguments are strong. The grounds for electoral protests are spectacular. However, the opposition initially primarily accused these elections of exposing everyone to great epidemiological danger: voters (infection via paper), postal workers, and election commission members. The leader of PO shouted that PiS would have blood on its hands. And here, Szumowski, with his cosmetic but also long-awaited relaxations, truly comes to the rescue of the ruling camp (although, of course, there were a hundred other reasons to make them). We do not know what Poles will think about this on May 10 or 17.” -- PiS POLITICIANS REFER TO STUDIES ESTIMATING TURNOUT AT APPROXIMATELY 40% - ZAREMBA FURTHER: “It is possible that significant groups of voters will remain irritated that politicians are bothering them with politics when they are struggling with such serious problems. But won't many see the opportunity to go to the ballot box as another sign of normalization? What's more, as something anticipated and safe – since we are increasingly going out to handle various matters. PiS politicians refer to studies estimating potential turnout at 50% – this means the real turnout will be around 40%. For a time of catastrophe, quite good – explains a PiS PR expert.” -- THE MOST SKILLFUL OPPOSITION POLITICIAN - ZAREMBA ON KOSINIAK: “People as different as former president Aleksander Kwaśniewski and left-wing publicist Ziemowit Szczerek have pointed to Kosiniak-Kamysz, who is ideologically distant from them. For many reasons, this sounds serious: he is currently the most skillful opposition politician, capable of sometimes detaching himself from theatrical political rhetoric. However, this idea has no chance. Particular interests must prevail. Perhaps Kosiniak himself has accepted this. Regardless of the rhetorical condemnation of the May date, does a quick presidential race, potentially overtaking the PO candidate, seem more concrete to him than weaving agreements aimed at postponing the elections?” -- PiS REMAINS STRONG DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF OTHER PLAYERS - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “And it is more likely that PiS remains strong due to the weakness of the other players. And the fact that it will offer us an ugly spectacle of forced elections, pushing its candidate through by sheer force, is another matter.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/304249997-Wybory-prezydenckie-obarczone-skaza.html -- NOT AUTHORITARIANISM, BUT DISORDERLY, POPULIST DEMOCRACY - PIOTR ZAREMBA ON POLSAT NEWS: “All this is happening amidst a chronic lack of trust between the ruling right and the opposition. Is this an authoritarian method, as the opposition shouts, pointing to other pathologies, such as limiting the National Electoral Commission’s power over these elections? Different norms exist in this regard in various European countries. However, the hasty drafting of new laws for immediate circumstances must be concerning. For me, it is rather a disorderly, populist democracy, where the majority uses its elbows to subdue the minority. But the dispute over definitions is not the most important thing. We are dealing with the manipulation of regulations. We are losing as citizens the certainty that norms, that standards, mean anything.” -- IN POLAND, WE MUST GUARD AGAINST THE LIMITATION OF POWER, BECAUSE IT DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO LIMIT ITSELF - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “We will emerge from the pandemic with a totally ruined political life, steeped in mutual hatred and accusations. But we will also emerge with an even more damaged, battered legal system. This is bad news not only for opposition politicians but for ordinary Poles, for whom a system based on equal rules for everyone, on what we call the rule of law, may be more necessary than ever. This is the essence of the accusation concerning the judiciary, which is increasingly linked to the ruling camp. And this is also the problem of the 'corrupt government' prosecutor's office. It turns out that in Poland, we need to guard against the limitation of power, because it does not know how to limit itself.” https://tygodnik.polsatnews.pl/news/2020-04-24/praworzadnosc-na-oltarzu/ -- GOWIN'S END IS PREDICTABLE - EMBRACES OF CZARZASTY AND MICHNIK - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “From my conversations with people who know the behind-the-scenes of this matter in the right-wing camp, few have any doubts that this is about the elections. Instead, there is a growing conviction that Gowin is consciously and willingly drifting away. How far? In my opinion, the end is predictable: embraces of Czarzasty and Michnik. This is the logic of the political process in Poland. Of course, there will be intermediate stages, some new PJN. Then there will be weakening and a sense of defeat. Subsequently, the embrace of the castaways by the III RP camp.” -- WANDERING THE PERIPHERIES OF A NEW EUROPEAN COALITION AS PETITIONERS - KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “This time, however, a group that has the opportunity to co-decide Poland’s fate within a stable and successful political coalition – immediately after winning elections – is embarking on this journey. A group that is already agentic. These are politicians facing a choice: whether they want to change Poland for the next three years, pull it out of the epidemic crisis, or whether they prefer to wander the peripheries of some new European Coalition as petitioners.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/497347-final-jest-przewidywalny-objecia-czarzastego-i-michnika -- NEW THREE TENORS - JACEK KARNOWSKI ON GOWIN'S WORDS ABOUT PARTNERS: “Many commentators yesterday noted the phrase 'my partners from the Polish Coalition' used by Jarosław Gowin. Is all this heading towards building a new political platform onto which new 'tenors' will jump? Two are already there – Kosiniak-Kamysz and Kukiz; a third is missing, one who would allow the creation of an impression of new quality, a new opening, a new proposal. Perhaps it is Jarosław Gowin himself. Importantly, it could be a formation that essentially holds the keys to the Sejm majority, at least for this term.” -- THE WEAKENING OF THE PLATFORM IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BIG CHANGES - JACEK KARNOWSKI FURTHER ON GOWIN'S MOVES: “Certainly, Platforma/KO is weakening. So much so that the thought must have crossed many political minds that a rare opportunity for major changes is emerging. This can, of course, happen within the current party constellation, through the increased importance of the Left on the one hand, and the PSL/Polish Coalition on the other. The attempt to form some new entity, something like a better-prepared Nowoczesna, is also possible. Intermediate variants are also possible.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/497235-czy-powstaje-nowa-platforma-na-ktora-wskocza-trzej-tenorzy -- GOWIN PROPOSED A NEW EDITION OF POLITICS - SOPOT MAYOR JACEK KARNOWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH JACIEK GĄDKIEM ON GAZETA.PL: “Jarosław Gowin proposed a completely new edition of politics – a normal conversation. Prime Minister Gowin does not yell and does not scare people with the prosecutor’s office like Zbigniew Ziobro. Prime Minister Gowin sat down for a conversation. Of course, I do not support his idea of extending Andrzej Duda's term by two years. But by one year – yes. Similarly, elections in August are acceptable.” -- GOWIN HAS THE ABILITY TO SAY “NON POSSUMUS” - SOPOT MAYOR FURTHER ON GĄDEK: “I have known Jarosław Gowin for years, and I know him well. It is true that he was and is a controversial figure, but on the other hand, he has a conscience, he has the ability to say 'non possumus' when it comes to endangering the lives of Poles. If it weren't for Jarosław Gowin and if it weren't for the Senate elections, the discussion about postponing the elections would make no sense at all. Prime Minister Gowin is on the other side of the political scene, but he has shown that he can also talk to political opponents.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25897680,j-karnowski-nie-wydam-spisu-wyborcow-a-dla-poczty-zarezerwuje.html -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON THE STATE THAT LEFT THE WEAKEST BEHIND IN EDUCATION: “While everyone’s eyes are on the hospitals, the myth we have nurtured for three decades is quietly dying due to the coronavirus. A myth beautifully described in the constitution, which states that the state ensures universal and equal access to education. This sacrifice of Covid-19 certainly had co-existing conditions: the state's shoddiness and the paper-thin nature of constitutional provisions – including those according to which authorities implement the principles of social justice. Exactly a year ago, teachers went on strike, demanding increased funding for education. Many people thinking in state-oriented terms, while lamenting the drastic strike method, could not disagree with them, seeing how dramatically underfunded the education sector is.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/304249991-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Edukacja-pokonana-przez-wirusa.html -- A MOVING REPORT BY PAWEŁ RESZKA FROM AN EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT: “There is an urgent patient brought from a Social Welfare Home. Michał looks at the papers: - Lung tomography is dramatic. It's not good. Many patients arrive from social welfare homes, usually in serious condition. A gray-haired man curled up in a ball on a stretcher. He clutches a shopping bag in his hands – all the possessions the social welfare home gave him for what is likely his final journey. A patient with dementia syndrome. It's uncertain if he knows where he is or what is happening to him. - Good morning! From under the oxygen mask, only a 'baaaa' can be heard instead of a reply. - What is your name? 'Baaa' sounds as if the patient is trying to spell his name. - How are you feeling? 'Baaa' sounds like 'good'. Michał leans over the old man. So that he can see his eyes from under the goggles. - Are you having trouble breathing? Mr. Eugeniusz? Eugeniusz reacts to his name, looks up. He speaks with effort, but more clearly: - No, I'm fine now. Michał strokes his gray hair: - You are not doing so badly – he says, although the papers suggest otherwise.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/spoleczenstwo/1954046,1,dokad-pedzi-pani-zofia-reporter-na-oiom-ie.read? -- DURING THE PLAGUE, PHILOSOPHERS TRIUMPH - JAN ROKITA IN AN ARTICLE FOR TEOLOGIA POLITYCZNA: “During the plague, philosophers triumph. Because the plague – in a sense, like war or revolution – is a borderline situation in which biology and violence seize the roles of protagonists on the human stage. It is not surprising, therefore, that the front line of interpreters of this new situation is formed by philosophers from the 'biopolitical' school, as it is from them, as potentially the most competent in matters of relations between the state and the virus, that some interpretation of the chaos surrounding us is expected. Thus, the greatest 'philosophical echo' in Europe today is the theses put forward by the 78-year-old Giorgio Agamben, who is listened to not only as one of the fathers of biopolitics but also, as an Italian, given his age, he belongs to the 'highest risk' group during the plague. And Agamben sees in the world's entire reaction to the plague the triumphant confirmation of his long-held apocalyptic convictions. First of all, he believes, we can finally see that Italians (but it's not just about them) are 'prepared to sacrifice practically everything: normal living conditions, social relations, work, even friendship, religion, and political convictions, simply to avoid the danger of infection.' What remains for them, as the sole content of their existence, is 'bare life and the fear of losing it.' The Italian philosopher morally accuses us all: 'What kind of society is this, in which there is no other value than the desire for survival?' -- ROKITA ON POLITICAL TYRANNY, TOWARDS WHICH WE BOW OUR HEADS: “Now they have the opportunity to show us our biological degradation and the political tyranny, towards which we helplessly bow our heads, in a race against time. So, although these philosophers want to act as moralists, in reality, they do not pity us at all, and if they are morally consistent – they do not pity themselves either. After all, they have always – supposedly since the Athenian 'golden age' – known that we ourselves are not divine but biological, and that our politics has never been about any order but always about violence. From time to time, I am seized by a wicked thought: is this triumph of philosophers during the plague – perhaps a diabolical triumph?” https://teologiapolityczna.pl/jan-rokita-tryumf-filozofow-felieton-1 -- Photo. Three Philosophers, Giorgione, Museum in Vienna. * “One could compile a great book on the interpretations of this painting,” Dr. Grażyna Bastek said in Dwójka about the ambiguous, unsettling painting by the Italian master Giorgione. It is one of Giorgione’s most enigmatic works. Little is known about the author as well, as he lived a short life, only 33 years, dying during a plague outbreak in October 1510. The painting, created for an elite Italian connoisseur, intrigues amateurs and researchers, accumulating further interpretations. – This painting has long been considered a pictorial representation of the Three Wise Men from the East. Today, this interpretation – safe, placing the work within known Christian iconography – has its supporters, but in contemporary times, a new interpretation of this painting emerges every year – said Dr. Grażyna Bastek”.* – FRAGMENT OF A POLISH RADIO BROADCAST: https://www.polskieradio.pl/8/406/Artykul/1464694,Trzej-filozofowie-Proby-wyjasnienia-zagadki -- BIRTHDAYS: Hanna Gucwińska, Jerzy Widzyk, Wojciech Szeląg, Anna Kalita, SUNDAY: Tadeusz Słobodzianek, Cezary Grabarczyk, Sławomir Nitras, Krzysztof Kozłowski, Grzegorz Zasępa, Zofia Ławrynowicz.

Łukasz Mężyk