state of play: 04/24/2020
POLITICAL GAME: Szułdrzyński: We are on the verge of the deepest political crisis since '89, Stankiewicz: Fear in PO that Gowin is conspiring with Schetyna, GW on 8 Gowin's MPs
-- 5TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE DEATH OF WŁADYSŁAW BARTOSZEWSKI.
-- TODAY THE MARSHAL OF THE SENATE'S ADDRESS, THE PRESIDENT AS A GUEST OF WIADOMOŚCI, EMILEWICZ ON THE ELECTION PROBLEM, SOBOLEWSKI ON MAY 10 - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/04/24/
-- WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE DEEPEST POLITICAL CRISIS SINCE '89 - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Today, the elections are being prepared not according to regulations, but according to political will. What is worse, it is also the will of one man who has taken hostage not only his party and the state, but also 30 million eligible voters. It's becoming a bit funny and a bit frightening. Funny, because the grotesque nature of ministers justifying their less-than-legal actions is directly striking (let's recall that the Constitution of the Republic of Poland states in Article 7 that public authorities act on the basis and within the limits of the law, and the Senate has not yet considered the provisions enabling the elections). But it is also frightening, because these actions can strike at the very core of the democratic process, at the social, political, and legal legitimacy of the mandate of the President of the Republic of Poland, elected, as the constitution stipulates, in 'universal, equal, direct, and secret ballot' elections. In this respect, we have found ourselves on the verge of the deepest crisis since 1989.
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200429580-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Na-krawedzi-katastrofy.html
-- WPOLITYCE HEADLINE ABOUT GOWIN: SIGNIFICANT WORDS ABOUT "PARTNERS FROM THE POLISH COALITION".
-- MUTUAL TRUST HAS ENDED IN THE RULING CAMP, BUT NO ONE TRUSTS EACH OTHER IN THE OPPOSITION EITHER - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Mutual trust has ended in the ruling camp. The problem is that no one trusts each other in the opposition either”.
-- PO AND PSL HAVE COMPLETELY SEPARATE POLITICAL INTERESTS, THE BOYCOTT IS A CONVENIENT WAY FOR PLATFORMA TO AVOID COMPROMISE - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “But at the same time, for PO, boycotting the elections is a convenient way to avoid compromising their own candidate, who is clearly losing in the polls. In turn, Kosiniak-Kamysz, although he is playing by the same crooked rules as Kaczyński, is on a roll. Many polls give him second place. Percentage-wise, far behind Duda, but still with a chance for the second round. It is therefore clearly visible that PO and PSL have completely separate political interests today. Trust was already strained earlier, when the PSL, supported by Lewica, agreed to introduce an internet voting system in the Sejm”.
-- IN STANKIEWICZ'S OPINION, THE CHAIRMAN IS READY FOR ALL VARIANTS: “In this entire game, Gowin made one fundamental mistake. He assumed that regardless of his antics, Kaczyński would not do anything to him for fear of the coalition collapsing, the government falling, and early elections. He was mistaken. Talks within the ruling camp indicate that the PiS chairman is ready for all variants. Coalition collapse? Many MPs from Gowin's Agreement are being persuaded by emissaries from Nowogrodzka to rebel against their leader. In the event of a final confrontation, Gowin has no guarantee of his people's full loyalty. Another thing is that he only needs a few to block the elections in May. Therefore, PiS envoys are recruiting MPs from other groupings in advance”.
-- POLLS FAVOR PIS, WHO KNOWS, MAYBE FOR THE LAST TIME? - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “And Kaczyński is said to be ready even for early parliamentary elections, which sounds like a grotesque, given the difficulties with the presidential elections. The fact is, however, that as with the presidency for Duda, so with parliamentary elections, polls favor Kaczyński. Who knows, maybe for the last time?”
-- THE WORD "FEAR" BETTER DESCRIBES THE OPPOSITION'S SITUATION THAN "POWERLESSNESS" - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “However, there is a word that more accurately describes the opposition's situation than 'powerlessness'. It is 'fear'. The opposition does not want to hear about elections in May; the Civic Coalition candidate, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, has even suspended her already weak campaign. They also do not want to hear about Gowin's proposals to change the constitution. According to the opposition, the only sensible solution is to introduce one of the extraordinary states described in the constitution. This refers to a state of natural disaster, or a state of emergency. During either of them and for 90 days afterward, elections cannot be held”.
-- STANKIEWICZ ON THE FEARS OF BUDKA'S CIRCLE THAT GOWIN IS CONSPIRING WITH SCHETYNA: “Gowin also tried to renew his contacts from his time in Platform. Unsuccessfully – he rather increased the suspicion of the new PO leadership. Borys Budka and his people are closely observing the actions of the former PO leader Grzegorz Schetyna. It's not just that Schetyna hasn't come to terms with losing his seat (in his competitive mind, it's a demotion to a minor league) and is still contesting the new team. Budka and his people suspect Schetyna of conspiring with Gowin – after all, a decade ago, they were plotting together against the then-leader of PO, Donald Tusk”.
-- STANKIEWICZ ON THE VACATIO LEGIS VARIANT: “Among Gowin's people, there is a lively idea to reach an agreement with the opposition in the Senate and send a bill for postal voting to the Sejm, but with a postponed effective date (a long vacatio legis), so that Kaczyński wouldn't have time to install Duda in the presidential seat in May. Well, but this sounds like putting a gun to the PiS leader's head. Would Kaczyński accept a painful political defeat, to which his coalition partner contributed?”
https://tygodnikpowszechny.pl/prezes-wirusowi-sie-nie-klania-163122
-- WE SHOULD DO 80-100 THOUSAND TESTS DAILY - ANDRZEJ SOŚNIERZ IN A CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “We should be conducting tens of thousands of tests, 80-100 thousand would be optimal. 20 thousand tests will be enough after the epidemic is suppressed. Saying we have enough tests is quite enigmatic, as we have different types of tests”.
-- AUGUST AT THE EARLIEST - SOŚNIERZ CONTINUES IN RZ: “The earliest date is August, although it would be safest in two years, after the epidemic subsides. There will be no elections in May”.
-- SOŚNIERZ ON NIZINKIEWICZ'S QUESTION ON HOW HE WILL VOTE: “It's easy to guess how I will vote, given so many doubts. Unless someone dispels them for me... I will be against postal voting in May, even though theoretically it is safe, but this is about practice, not theory”.
-- GOWIN CONTROLS THE SITUATION - SOŚNIERZ ON NIZINKIEWICZ'S QUESTION ABOUT THE STABILITY OF GOWIN'S PARLIAMENTARY BASE: “Yes. The previous votes, in which MPs from Porozumienie voted differently, were agreed upon beforehand. Please do not be guided by them. Jarosław Gowin controls the situation”.
-- REOPEN THE ECONOMY AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE - SOŚNIERZ SAYS: “As soon as possible, because we are not a rich country. I have prepared a plan that would allow the economy to be released within 40 days from the moment the epidemic began. We should already be easing some restrictions, and we haven't even started implementing the plan to reopen the economy, we are only implementing a strategy based on bad data. A schedule, for example, that would give entrepreneurs hope, is greatly lacking”.
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/200429576-Andrzej-Sosnierz-Wyborow-w-maju-nie-bedzie-Moga-byc-w-sierpniu.html
-- JUSTYNA DOBROSZ-ORACZ ON THE WAR OF NERVES IN THE RULING CAMP - on wyborcza.pl: “There has not been such a war of nerves in the ruling camp yet. Whether the opposition manages to block the May elections at the last moment depends on the attitude of the former Deputy Prime Minister and his associates”.
-- PIS SAYS GOWIN IS "PLUCKED LIKE A CHICKEN ON SUNDAY," BUT HE CLAIMS HE HAS 8 MPS BEHIND HIM - DOBROSZ CONTINUES: “In the corridors, PiS tells the PSL that Gowin is 'plucked of his MPs like a chicken on Sunday' and essentially left without an army in the Sejm. However, it is possible that such stories are an attempt to block a scenario that would be a defeat for the ruling party. The leader of Porozumienie assures behind closed doors that he has the support of at least eight parliamentarians ready to back him.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,82983,25894222,nieoficjalnie-pis-gowin-juz-jest-oskubany-z-poslow-czyzby.html
-- MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ ON SZYDŁO'S RETURN: “As we hear, former Prime Minister Beata Szydło is among the strongest advocates for early May elections. In recent days, the campaign of Andrzej Duda has restarted, with her participation as the head of the program staff. One of our interlocutors argues that this is also an opportunity to rebuild Beata Szydło's political strength in Law and Justice”.
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/200429578-Kiedy-wybory-Trwa-poszukiwanie-wyjscia.html
-- OKO.PRESS ON THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION (PKW) AND THE CHANGE OF MIND BY THE HEAD OF PKW: “On Friday, April 24, a position from the PKW is expected regarding postal voting. PiS has changed the laws in such a way that most of its current members were elected by the Sejm (the opposition also has its representatives there). Until now, the PKW has held the position that elections in May cannot be held due to the coronavirus epidemic, and if they are held, they will not reflect the will of Poles. The PKW has issued two statements on this matter. We wrote about them on OKO.press. However, Wyborcza.pl reported that there is now a dispute within the PKW about whether to support postal voting. The decisive vote is expected to come from the head of the PKW, Supreme Administrative Court judge Sylwester Marciniak, who is said to be leaning towards supporting such elections, although he previously signed two statements advocating for the cancellation of the elections. However, the PKW's support for these elections would mean a complete capitulation of this institution, especially given that PiS has severely curtailed its competencies and reduced its role in the presidential elections to merely announcing the results”.
https://oko.press/wybory-zorganizuja-polityk-pis-listonosze-i-ochotnicy-raport-z-bezprawia-i-chaosu/
-- SASIN, THE FACE OF THE ELECTORAL GROTESQUE - JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “By saying that he began preparations for postal voting without the relevant law, Sasin essentially admitted that he is acting unlawfully. It is the Deputy Prime Minister who has become the symbolic face of the electoral grotesque, and he should be held responsible for this lawlessness. The opposition has filed a report with the prosecutor's office regarding the possibility of Jacek Sasin committing an 'election offense'; this concerns the unlawful printing of ballots, according to PO MPs”.
-- UODO, MONTHS AGO, FIERCELY ARGUED ABOUT PERSONAL DATA ON KRS LISTS - BODZIONY CONTINUES: “Ironically, this situation does not arouse the interest of the Office for Personal Data Protection, which, only a few months ago, fiercely argued that the names and surnames of people supporting judges of the new National Council of the Judiciary were such sensitive data that they could not be published”.
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/04/24/jacek-sasin-wybory-korespondencyjne-bodziony/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Huskowski, Mirosław Styczeń, Mieczysław Golba.
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