state of play: 04/23/2020

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: PO's internal polls show Kidawa-Błońska dropping to 4th place, Karnowski argues delaying elections would save PO from painful defeat, Wroński on opposition rivalry, Jędrysik explains why Poland lags behind the Czech Republic

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TODAY MARKS THE 100TH ANNIVERSARY OF JACK WOŹNIAKOWSKI'S BIRTH: He was a member of the underground organization "Tarcza" (Shield) and later an adjutant to the commander of the Home Army in Mielec. From 1945, he collaborated with "Tygodnik Powszechny" and in 1948 became the editorial secretary of the publication, later also its deputy editor-in-chief. From 1957-59, Woźniakowski served as the editor-in-chief of the monthly magazine "Znak". He participated in the Round Table Talks. After the fall of communism, he was the first president of Krakow (1990-91). In 1999-2000, he lectured at the Department of Polish History and Culture at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. In 2006, President Lech Kaczyński awarded Jack Woźniakowski the Commander's Cross with a Star of the Order of Polonia Restituta for his outstanding contributions to the development of Polish democracy and his work towards dialogue and the common good.
-- A MEMORIAL TO JACK WOŹNIAKOWSKI PUBLISHED IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY AFTER HIS DEATH: “At first glance, the embodiment of contradictions: a gentleman with a dashing temperament and an intellectual who didn't shy away from strong words. A pre-war proponent of the idea of the common good and a thoroughly modern self-made man.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/ulan-143686 -- IN AN ARTICLE FOR FAZ, PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI SENDS A SIGNAL TO THE HEAD OF THE COMMISSION AND RETURNS TO HIS LINE OF AN AMBITIOUS EU BUDGET: https://300polityka.pl/news/2020/04/22/premier-morawiecki-w-faz-europa-nowej-rownowagi-ktora-zanikla-w-wyniku-wewnetrznych-podzialow-i-wzajemnych-animozji-musimy-dzis-pozbyc-sie-leku-przed-ambitnym-budzetem/ -- MORAWIECKI CANNOT BE ACCUSED OF LACKING THE WILL TO GRAB THE EU REINS - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “All these articles, conversations during video conferences with our foreign partners, ideas, analyses, and concrete proposals undoubtedly require refinement and solidifying, but one cannot accuse Morawiecki of lacking the will to grab the EU reins – within the appropriate scope, of course. At the minimum level, this is a truly difficult fight against countries that – as Minister Konrad Szymański recently put it – “consider themselves the conscience of the European project, yet do not want to pay for the EU.” In the era of fighting the coronavirus (and the additional funds needed for it), these discussions carry additional political and social weight. And of course, in the end, Morawiecki will be judged on the effectiveness, not the ambition, of his EU policy. However, the scope and substance of the plans being drawn up cannot be overlooked.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/497010-ofensywa-morawieckiego-na-forum-ue-mowi-cos-jeszcze-o-polsce -- SCHETYNA ON THE FACT THAT THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE TO KIDAWAY'S CANDIDACY TODAY, TOMORROW, AND THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW; KOSINIAK ON SENATE AMENDMENTS; DWORCZYK ANNOUNCES NEW PRIME MINISTERIAL STATEMENT FOR TOMORROW - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/04/23/ -- ANDRZEJ GAJCY ON THE 4TH MONTH OF THE CIVIC PLATFORM CANDIDATE IN THE PARTY'S SURVEYS - WRITES IN THE ONET BULLETIN: “Today, internal polls commissioned by the ruling party show that Duda is winning in the first round by a significant margin over his rivals. The same results come from polls commissioned by the staffs of other candidates. The candidate of the Civic Coalition, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, has the most reasons to panic, having dropped to fourth place, just behind Szymon Hołownia and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the leader of the PSL who is fighting for the second round. If these predictions were to be confirmed, it would be a catastrophe for the entire Civic Platform. We are facing a decisive political confrontation over the shape of the presidential elections, the outcome of which may prove to be more important in the long term than the act of voting itself.” -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: POSTPONING THE ELECTIONS WOULD SAVE THE PLATFORM: “It turns out that Szymon Hołownia is still more of an entertainment figure than a politician, President Andrzej Duda is managing without large rallies, which were his strong suit until now, and Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska has drowned her campaign because she started talking too much. And Poles listened to her and then assessed that, despite all her likeability, she is not a politician of presidential caliber. As a result, no one today claims that there is no campaign and that it cannot be conducted. The burden of propaganda against the presidential elections, required by the constitution, has shifted to other areas. The Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, for example, announced that the envelopes would be infected. If that were the case, the municipal administration, which issues thousands of documents and certificates daily, would be committing thousands of crimes every day. But this is not the case; envelopes do not infect. Most arguments against the elections have been refuted. Only one serious argument remains: postponing the vote would have saved the Civic Platform's candidate from a painful defeat. But is that a sufficient reason to suspend Polish democracy?”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/496986-jeden-argument-przeciw-wyborom-zniknal-na-dobre-i-slusznie -- DGP ON BALLOTS: WITHOUT PKW STAMPS AND ELECTION DATE - Grzegorz Osiecki, Tomasz Żółciak: “Another doubt concerns the appearance of the ballot. Although Deputy Prime Minister Sasin stated on TVN24 that ballots are being printed according to the design determined by the National Electoral Commission (PKW) in February, our information suggests the ballot will differ. The heading will not conventionally indicate the daily election date. This is how the government is likely securing itself against a scenario where the elections planned for May 10th have to be postponed to another date. The second difference concerns the element confirming the ballot's authenticity. Until now, these were the stamps of the PKW and the polling station commission. Such security will not be possible in the case of postal voting (election packages will reach the polling stations at the very end), which is why graphical security (special ink) is foreseen.” -- THE PKW COULD DECLARE THE ELECTIONS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONDUCT - DGP ON THE CHAOS SCENARIO: “We heard another option from a politician of the ruling camp. The PKW could declare that the elections cannot take place, and on that basis, the Marshal of the Sejm would announce new elections. What next? This is real political science fiction. The elections would likely take place after the end of Andrzej Duda's term. So, what about fulfilling the duties of the head of state after that date? This illustrates the potential state of chaos that could occur if a clear scenario cannot be worked out in parliament or the government. Much depends on what happens in the Sejm with the Senate's amendments.”
https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/7390299,karty-wyborcze-brak-daty-piec-ci-pkw.html -- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI ON THE DIVERGENCE OF OPPOSITION NARRATIVES AND RIVALRY OVER WHO WILL LEAD IT - WRITES IN GW: “Everything indicates that after the negotiations, instead of a convergence of positions, Gowin's and the opposition's proposals are increasingly diverging. Moreover, the opposition's narrative is diverging, although it is currently difficult to determine what is a boastful ideological declaration made for the media and what is a pragmatic negotiating stance. The reason for the greatest difficulties is the difference in political goals that the opposition and Jarosław Gowin set for themselves. The second element hindering agreement is the rivalry among political leaders over who should be the "savior of the homeland" leading it out of the chaos that presidential elections in the midst of a pandemic could prove to be. The third is the struggle for who will be "second after Duda" in the presidential elections in order to then try to lead the opposition.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25888621,z-misji-gowina-nic-nie-bedzie-poza-destrukcja-opozycji.html -- NACZELNY RZ ON HOW A POOR RESULT COULD TRIGGER REFLECTION ON LEADERSHIP IN PO - WAS THE REPLACEMENT OF SCHETYNA A MISTAKE: “In the short term, the Civic Coalition benefits from the postponement of the elections, which could become a tragedy for the weakening party. A poor result for MKB would be not only proof of the campaign's inadequacy and the candidate's weakening potential but also a political defeat for Budka and his team. In PO, this could be followed by reflection that replacing Schetyna with Budka was a fundamental mistake. The postponement of the elections offers PO a chance to consolidate, strengthen, rethink its campaign strategy, and perhaps even change the candidate.” -- CHRABOTA ON THE SODA WATER ERUPTION IN PSL: WKK FEELS LIKE PRESIDENT: “The PSL is different. Here, there's an eruption of soda water. WKK already feels like president, a feeling reinforced by his close circle. Nothing could be further from the truth; the chance for the PSL leader to be elected president can only be given by a strong Civic Coalition and its mobilized electorate, and that cannot be counted on. Therefore, WKK will not become president. However, in the event of the disintegration of the United Right, he could find himself in the position of deputy prime minister. If snap elections were to occur, the PSL could profit from the electorate of Kaczyński's weakened party.” -- LEWICA WILL GAIN NOTHING FROM A BOYCOTT - NACZELNY RZ CONTINUES: “And the most important question the gentlemen from the trio must ask themselves is: will the next three and a half years until the next parliamentary elections be a period they can survive in their seats? Will they not be swept away by factional struggles, the pressure of young wolves, the emergence of new formations, etc., etc.? If they were a united Kwaśniewski and Miller – they would have a chance of survival. But they are not. History can unceremoniously throw them overboard. Unless they sit down at the table (also with Gowin) and try to change the main course of history. Doing nothing, i.e., boycotting, will yield no benefits.”
https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/200429669-Boguslaw-Chrabota-Lewico-na-bojkocie-nic-nie-zyskasz.html -- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON THE COURSE TOWARDS THE ORBÁN MODEL - WRITES IN RZ: “This very situation – uncertainty, the lack of a single clear opposition scenario, and the sharp determination of the ruling camp, coupled with a lack of ironclad certainty about its effectiveness – is a collection of premises for the worst possible development of events. Namely, the real, Orban- or Putin-style, transformation of the system in Poland into a facade for actual autocracy. Both variants, the one with the current ruling camp losing its majority in the Sejm, and the one where it implements its will with a 30% turnout, signify very profound political changes. It would be a kind of culmination of the process of stripping Poland of its democratic remnants. And moreover, not in a situation of Gomułka-era "small stabilization," but during an economic and social crisis created by the epidemic.” -- A DARK SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE IF THE OPPOSITION CONTINUES TO CALCULATE ITS CHANCES - DĄBROWSKA CONTINUES IN RZ: “These will no longer be speculations about whether it is better to accept a government that "may steal, but at least shares," or neoliberals waiting their whole lives for a windfall. It will be a system where the army and police will have to actively defend the interests of the rulers, thanks to the law changed by the pandemic. This is a very dark scenario. But such scenarios write themselves easily. And if the opposition parties continue to calculate every point of a potential agreement in terms of their candidates' chances in elections, which are like a specter haunting Poland – then this is precisely what might happen.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200429668-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-Zamach-kwietniowy.html -- MIŁADA JĘDRYSIK ON GOVERNMENT ANALYSES INDICATING THE PANDEMIC IS FAR FROM OVER: “As OKO.press has learned, the government possesses analyses indicating that the epidemic is far from fading. The key reproduction rate R is not falling below 1. Other sources confirm that R = 1.2. Therefore, relaxing restrictions, let alone holding elections (even postal ones), is a significant risk. Instead of political manipulation, more information is needed.” -- JĘDRYSIK INTERESTINGLY ON THE INDICATOR: “Here too, the basic reproduction rate has been calculated for Poland at 1.2. For the Czech Republic, it is 0.98, for Austria 0.42, for Switzerland 0.68, and for Germany 0.79. A value of R below 1 means that the number of infected people is starting to decrease, meaning there are more recoveries than new infections. Austria has the best result and it has begun to significantly reduce the restrictions imposed on the economy. In Great Britain, where the epidemic is still raging, R is estimated at 1.44. In Russia, where new cases are growing very rapidly – as high as 1.99. In Slovakia, which closed its borders just before us, R is similar to Poland's – 1.15. Chancellor Angela Merkel, a doctor of science, probably explained the significance of the R coefficient best. 'If the R coefficient is 1.1, we will eventually reach the limits of our healthcare system. If it is 1.2 – we will reach them already in July.'” -- WE ARE NOT AT THE STAGE THAT AUTHORIZES OPENING THE COUNTRY - JĘDRYSIK CONTINUES: “It is evident that we are not yet at a stage where we can seriously talk about opening the country. In Austria, the Czech Republic, or Switzerland, both the number of new cases and active cases are significantly declining, indicating that they have passed the peak of the epidemic. Not to mention that all of them have fewer active cases than Poland (in absolute numbers, as they are still more infected per million inhabitants). In Poland, we have not yet reached the peak of infections. Perhaps this is why the first stage of easing restrictions involved revoking the irrational ban on walking in forests and parks and allowing minors to go out without adult supervision. These are changes that should not reduce the effectiveness of social distancing and were rather intended to show that our government is also "opening something.”
https://oko.press/rzad-wie-ze-epidemia-nie-wygasa-ukrywa-czesc-informacji-by-nie-podwazac-decyzji-o-wyborach/ -- OTHER COUNTRIES RELAXING MEASURES HAVE ALREADY PASSED THE PEAK - MINISTER OF HEALTH IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PAP: “The lifting of restrictions must be gradual. After each stage, we must assess the epidemiological consequences of the introduced “loosening.” We must verify the scale of infection increases. Let us remember that other countries that began the process of lifting restrictions before us are at a completely different stage of the epidemic. Most have already passed the critical point of infections, they have passed the peak. We have flattened the curve of illnesses, thanks to which we have a fully functional healthcare system, but this means that our increases are spread over a longer period. As a person responsible, I cannot freely, without any analysis, use dates that may later turn out to be, quite simply, inaccurate.” -- SZUMOWSKI ON THE NEED FOR CONSENSUS REGARDING THE ELECTION DATE: “My recommendation regarding the presidential elections is quite clear. I recommend traditional elections in two years. And if there is no agreement among political formations to hold the elections in this safe form, then the only possible form of elections during the epidemic is postal voting. We must limit interpersonal contact, and postal voting allows for limiting contact. I notice that part of the political scene places the responsibility for the elections solely on my shoulders, but I would suggest that everyone take their own responsibility. If we want to choose safety, then consensus must simply be reached in parliament.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/497007-szumowski-jestesmy-przed-szczytem-zachorowan -- BIRTHDAYS: Anda Rottenberg, Anna Kalczyńska-Maciejowska, Jakub Bodziony.

Łukasz Mężyk