-- PRESIDENT ON DROUGHT, CIVIC PLATFORM TURNS TO NIK OVER ELECTION PREPARATION BASIS, TRZASKOWSKI AND NITRAS ON POSSIBLE ELECTION BOYCOTT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/04/22/ -- A CAMPAIGN IS NECESSARY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ - IF NOT FOR THE CAMPAIGN, WE WOULDN'T HAVE SEEN KOMOROWSKI'S DISCONNECTION IN 2015: “It was precisely the campaign that disillusioned PO voters and led to a reversal of public support. Campaigns are the best time for politicians to compromise themselves. If it weren't for the 2015 election campaign, we wouldn't have seen how detached Komorowski and his entourage were from reality, how much they missed what Poles expected. Contrary to PiS propaganda, Poland was not in ruins in 2015. The problem was the extraordinary complacency of the then-governing camp, which prevented them from seeing how the aspirations of millions of Poles had changed.” -- THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN WAS A NEGATIVE TEST FOR BOTH DUDY AND KIDAWY - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “The same principle applied to the current campaign until the outbreak of the pandemic. Duda's ratings could have been worse, as his campaign team and he himself made numerous mistakes at the beginning, showing that holding this office detaches one from reality. The campaign was also a negative test for Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. Initially, some suspected she was ill-suited as a candidate; the longer the campaign lasted, the more people became certain of this.” -- THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN HAS ALWAYS IGNITED MECHANISMS THAT HAVE GIVEN LONG-TERM DYNAMICS TO POLITICS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “A presidential election campaign also ignites various mechanisms that give long-term dynamics to political events. In 2000, it determined the end of the AWS project. The 2005 campaign led to the end of the dream of a PO-PiS alliance, and Andrzej Lepper's good result determined PiS's shift towards a populist stance. The 2010 election, held in the shadow of the Smolensk catastrophe, preserved PO's hegemony for the next few years. The 2015 elections turned the table, creating the dynamics that gave PiS full power. All of this thanks to election campaigns.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/304219894-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Kampania-wyborcza-jestpotrzebna.html -- KOSINIAK IS EMERGING AS DUDY'S MAIN RIVAL - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is emerging as Andrzej Duda's main competitor for the presidency. However, he is not fighting for the Presidential Palace now, but for the position of prime minister or president in the next elections. Paradoxically, thanks to the elections in May pushed by PiS, against which Kosiniak is strongly protesting, he may become the leader of the opposition.” -- GĄDEK ON HOW KOSINIAK COULD BECOME THE OPPOSITION LEADER: “Goal No. 1: In the first round, Kosiniak is only outranked by Andrzej Duda. Without this, the PSL will not be able to speak of success, especially since the Peasants' Party has inflated expectations regarding their candidate's result. Goal No. 2: A second round of elections is necessary, involving Duda and Kosiniak. And this is effectively the maximum goal under current conditions. If a second round involving Duda and Kosiniak becomes a reality, the PSL leader will gain the status of the leader of the entire opposition. All other candidates (with the exception of the extreme ones) will be forced to support Kosiniak-Kamysz. In such a hypothetical scenario, the Peasants' Party representative will be doomed to be devoured by PiS and the propaganda machine of the ruling camp. In the eyes of opinion-forming circles supporting the opposition, he will be considered a 'conservative'.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25886212,psl-jest-przeciw-a-nawet-za-wyborami-w-maju-bo-kosiniak-kamysz.html -- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON HEADING FOR A POLITICAL HEAD-ON COLLISION - writes in Krytyka Polityczna: “The 2020 presidential elections. Politicians are driving at maximum speed. They are heading for a head-on collision. Yet, none want to be the one to back down first and swerve. The result? For the first time in the Third Polish Republic, millions of Polish women and men may consider that the president was not elected in a fully honest and democratic manner. (...) In other words, everything is heading towards a total crash. Politicians are failing the test of political maturity and responsibility for the state today. Instead of dealing with the two crises already destroying the country – the epidemic and the economic one – they are adding a third, political one.” -- AT THE FINISH LINE OF KIDAWY'S CAMPAIGN, KOMOROWSKI'S SEEMS NOT SO BAD AFTER ALL - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “More pragmatic calculations may also lie behind the reactions of the Left and PSL. There are many indications that the May elections could be the biggest catastrophe for the Civic Coalition candidate, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. Her inexplicable behavior in recent weeks – running in elections for which she calls for a boycott – gave the impression of complete confusion. Against the backdrop of Kidawa-Błońska's campaign finish, even Komorowski's seems not so bad after all.” -- MAJMUREK ON THE PROSPECT OF THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE PLATFORM AS WE KNOW IT: “If Kidawa-Błońska were to lose in the first round to Kosiniak-Kamysz, it could be the beginning of the end for the Civic Platform as we know it. The PSL and the Left would likely benefit from the disintegration of this formation.” -- DUDY'S POLITICAL PASSIVITY IS REACHING CURIOUS PROPORTIONS - JAKUB MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “In this whole political crisis, as Mr. Shakespeare put it, there is also a corner for buffoonery. It is located in the palace on Krakowskie Przedmieście. The political passivity of Andrzej Duda and his entire presidency has reached truly curious proportions in recent weeks. When a president capable of negotiating a sensible solution to the election problem would be needed as never before, Duda is active on TikTok, praises 500+ and other government social programs, and with his characteristic flair, talks about everything except what he should be talking about at this moment. Is liberal democracy in Poland really going to collapse over when we decide whether to extend this presidency for another five years?” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/jakub-majmurek-wybory-prezydenckie-2020-gowin-budka/ -- GOWIN IS NOT OUTSIDE THE UNITED RIGHT AT ALL, BECAUSE THERE IS NO SECOND SIDE THAT WOULD GUARANTEE ANY STABILITY - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ AND ANDRZEJ GAJCY IN ONE: “Our interlocutors from both Porozumienie and PiS assure that there is no 'Gowin plan' that assumes a political coup or the overthrow of the current government. — It is not true that Jarosław is outside the United Right, because there is no other side today that would guarantee any stability. The opposition is internally divided and quarrelsome today, so there is no chance that any other stable majority could emerge from this chaos that could threaten the current ruling coalition or parliamentary majority — a close associate of Gowin tells Onet.” -- GOWIN TOLD THE CIVIC PLATFORM ABOUT 8 DEPUTIES - Onet reports: “Gowin cannot be sure of the behavior of his deputies in such a vote. Or rather, he is sure that some will betray him, going over to Kaczyński's side. He just doesn't know how many. Theoretically, Porozumienie has 18 people in the United Right club. In contacts with the Civic Platform, Gowin estimated that he could count on half of his club, i.e., 8 people. But even that is an optimistic scenario for Gowin. According to our information, it may turn out that only four deputies will stand behind Gowin. In practice, this means that all votes – whether on mail-in ballots or for a new Sejm Marshal – are uncertain, as their outcome will depend on the votes of individual deputies.” -- ONET ON CIVIC PLATFORM'S CALCULATIONS REGARDING KACZYŃSKI'S REACTION - HE MAY INTRODUCE A STATE OF EMERGENCY: “Finally – and this is the biggest unknown – how will Jarosław Kaczyński behave in such a situation? After the parliamentary elections in the fall, he lost control of the Senate. Now he would have to accept losing the majority in the Sejm, and even the dismissal of his own Marshal? And this at a time when he cannot organize presidential elections, and therefore also loses control of the Presidential Palace. - Kaczyński's reaction might be pragmatic and calm. But it doesn't have to be. That is why we are assuming two emergency solutions. He might introduce a state of emergency, which will lead to the postponement of the presidential elections. Or he might try to dissolve the Sejm and call early parliamentary elections — a member of the Civic Platform's highest authorities tells us.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/tak-opozycja-chce-ograc-kaczynskiego-w-sprawie-wyborow-jak-zareaguje-pis-analiza/vjwnfrh -- OPEN CHANNELS FOR TALKS WITH THE OPPOSITION ARE A NORMAL THING, NOT A FREAK OR TREASON - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “Open channels for official and unofficial talks between representatives of the ruling camp and the opposition are an obvious certainty in a democracy and healthy public life. Especially on issues crucial to the entire community – and the organization and timing of elections is undoubtedly one such issue – such contact is necessary to avoid a systemic crisis that could destabilize the already regularly tested boat of the Polish state.” -- FIJOŁEK WITH THE METAPHOR OF AN OPEN PORTHOLE: “Getting out of this deadlock is not easy, but meetings like the one on Monday are an opening of a window, perhaps just a porthole, which allows for a breath of fresh air in a stuffy room.” -- WE SHOULD CHEER FOR THE OPENING OF GATES - FIJOŁEK'S CONCLUSION: “And again – if we want public life in which the political class does not solely focus on how to outsmart and humiliate opponents, but is at least sometimes able to agree on fundamental matters, we should cheer for such meetings, declarations, and conversations. Most of them will not bring any breakthrough, but they will open gates for the future (also for others), lower the temperature of political dispute, and make politics, at least once in a while, have the face of dialogue rather than a fight (which we will not avoid, and rightly so!). Not to mention such important words as a state-level approach to fundamental issues. The question remains open regarding the extent of goodwill from both the ruling camp and the opposition. Here, I am no longer such an incorrigible optimist, but I would like to be proven wrong.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/496706-furtki-do-rozmow-rzadu-z-opozycja-to-szansa-a-nie-zdrada -- 70% BELIEVE THE MAY ELECTIONS WILL BE INVALID - In GW, Agnieszka Kublik describes research conducted cyclically by Prof. Radosław Markowski: “As many as 81% believe that 'the PiS government is making a huge mistake by forcing people to participate in the presidential elections during the epidemic.' 12% assess that 'the PiS government should hold the presidential elections on time, regardless of the threat of further spread of the epidemic.' The vast majority (70%, including 58% categorically) agrees with the statement: 'If the presidential elections are held in May, they will be invalid, as the law prohibits changing election rules within 6 months before the elections, and also because forcing the entire society to vote by mail is unconstitutional.'” -- PEOPLE ARE AFRAID THERE IS NOT ENOUGH EQUIPMENT, TESTS, ETC. - MARKOWSKI'S RESEARCH FROM SWPS CONTINUES: “Two-thirds see the cause of ineffectiveness in the fact that 'doctors do not have basic protective equipment – masks, gloves, suits, etc.' And the lack of tests. 63% selected the answer in the survey that 'the main problem for effectively combating the virus is that very few tests are conducted in Poland, even for people in quarantine or sick.' We are also afraid – 73% – that 'the healthcare system has too little life-saving equipment, especially ventilators.'” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25886161,sondaz-swps-rzadowi-nie-ufamy-lekarzy-szanujemy-polacy-w.html -- Photo. EDWARD HOPPER, ROOMS BY THE SEA, 1951, private collection. *“The view that accompanied him during his childhood was enviable. Living in Nyack, a small port near New York, Hopper observed ships and sailboats sailing on the Hudson Bay from his family home. This scenery would have a huge impact on him, serving as inspiration for many of his future paintings, in which he would repeatedly return to this idyllic view. Hopper realized quite quickly that he was drawn to solitude, as even as a young boy he was shy, quiet, and rather kept to himself.”* https://niezlasztuka.net/o-sztuce/samotnosc-w-wielkim-miescie-edward-hopper/ -- THE GRAND LADY OF POLISH LEFT - GW in remembrance of Krystyna Łybacka. -- SHE TREATED PARENTS AND STUDENTS WITH RESPECT - from Krytyka Polityczna: “Krystyna Łybacka, a teacher, ZNP activist, politician, and MP, has passed away. She made her mark in Polish political history by keeping a promise made during her election campaign, and in Polish educational history by treating students and teachers with respect as Minister of Education.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/nie-zyje-krystyna-lybacka-ministra-edukacji/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Donald Tusk, Gabriel Janowski, Stanisław Kopeć, Mariusz Marasek, Krzysztof Grabczuk, Wojciech Lubawski, Jerzy Wenderlich, Elżbieta Gelert, Mateusz Nowaczyk.