state of play: 04/20/2020
STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski asks, 'For what reason should we save PO?' Dąbrowska says PO has abdicated, Borowski claims voters will condone PiS's brazenness, Trzaskowski states no one is talking about boycotting elections
-- BUDKA PROPOSES ELECTIONS IN A YEAR, SAWICKI COUNTERS HIM, KOLENDA ASKS ABOUT RE-ELECTING CANDIDATES, PRIME MINISTER ON POLISH PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION CAPABILITIES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/04/20/
-- EVERY VOTER WHO RESPECTS THE CONSTITUTION SHOULD NOT PARTICIPATE IN THESE ELECTIONS - MAREK BOROWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON OKO PRESS: “Elections based on the law currently in the Senate are illegal elections. They violate the Constitution, the electoral code, and the Sejm's regulations. They are not secret, nor universal elections, and many people will not have access to them. That is enough. If elections that violate the Constitution, are not secret or universal, are organized in a democratic state ruled by law, how can one participate in them?
- You will not vote?
- No.
- Are you urging your voters not to vote?
- Every voter and every candidate who respects the Constitution and the rule of law should not participate in these pseudo-elections.”
-- VOTERS WHO PARTICIPATE PRIORITIZE POLITICAL INTEREST OVER THE LAW - BOROWSKI CONTINUES: “Many people will participate. Does that mean they do not respect the rule of law?
- It means they prioritize political interest over the law, over the Constitution. PiS has repeatedly violated the Constitution, and many citizens do not mind supporting this party. Everyone is responsible for themselves.
- Not only PiS voters will vote in May. Some opposition voters will too.
- I advise against it.”
-- THOSE WHO VOTE WILL CONDONE THE BRASHNESS - BOROWSKI CONTINUES: “- Will those who participate in these elections be indecent?
- They will condone the brashness and insolence of the PiS camp and its affiliates. Everyone decides according to their own conscience.
- Opposition voters don't know what to do in this situation. We see this from the comments on OKO.press. Many feel a dilemma where the arguments are equally valid.
- These are not equally valid arguments. This is a moral dilemma, and a moral dilemma must be resolved in favor of decency.”
-- BOROWSKI: I BELIEVE IN THE CHAMBER OF EXTRAORDINARY CONTROL, THERE IS A GROUP OF DECENT JUDGES THERE: “The law can be sent when it is passed and signed by the president. This will not stop the elections on May 10 or 17. And we know how the so-called Tribunal works, and we are familiar with this institution. I have more faith – although not excessively – in the Chamber of Extraordinary Control. At least there is a group of decent judges there.”
https://oko.press/borowski-nie-bierzmy-udzialu-w-wyborach-w-maju-bareja-do-spolki-z-mrozkiem-by-tego-nie-wymyslili/
-- RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI ON A LAST-MINUTE DECISION - states in an interview with Jacek Nizinkiewicz in Rzeczpospolita (RZ): “Every serious political formation must reserve the right to make decisions at the last minute. Nobody is talking about boycotting the elections today. Today is the time for all parties to focus on postponing the elections to a safe time. We are trying to make voters realize that postal elections, which PiS is pushing for, are a blatant mockery of democracy. Elections should be held at a later date – then surely no one will contest them.
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/304199941-Rafal-Trzaskowski-Trzeba-rozmawiac-z-Gowinem.html
-- IT WAS ENOUGH FOR SZUMOWSKI NOT TO MEET THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE III RP TO BECOME A MONSTER IN THEIR MEDIA'S EYES - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “It is also worth noting what happened to the Minister of Health, Prof. Łukasz Szumowski – it was enough for him to issue a recommendation inconvenient for the III RP camp, and he immediately became a monster in the eyes of their media. If he had issued a different one – he would have been a hero. This shows how rigged the game is.”
-- KIDAWA-BŁOŃSKA DROWNED HER CAMPAIGN NOT BECAUSE SHE COULDN'T SPEAK, BUT BECAUSE SHE SPOKE A LOT AND WAS HEARD - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The election campaign is in full swing. Some gain, others lose, but all – without a doubt – have the opportunity to express themselves, and Poles listen and watch more attentively than in normal times. It is difficult not to notice that Ms. Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska drowned her campaign not because she couldn't speak, but precisely because she spoke a lot and was heard.”
-- KARNOWSKI: GOWIN IS GAMBLING WITH 5 YEARS OF ACHIEVEMENT WITHOUT A CLEAR, RATIONAL ARGUMENT: “For what reasons is Mr. Jarosław Gowin behaving so irrationally? I admit, I don't understand. Jan Rokita, usually favorable to the ideas and proposals of the Porozumienie leader, also doesn't understand. It therefore looks like some kind of entanglement, if motivated by anything, then by non-political factors, ambition, an inability to back down. However, the Deputy Prime Minister must be warned that the costs can be very serious. This is precisely gambling with Poland's future. The entire achievement of the last five years, as well as Poland's political and social stability in a difficult post-crisis period, is being subjected to powerful tensions without any visible rational argument, merely to the delight of opponents.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/496498-wiekszosc-argumentow-ktore-mial-gowin-upadla
-- FOR WHAT REASON SHOULD THE RULING CAMP SAVE THE CIVIC PLATFORM? - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “For what reason should the ruling camp save the Civic Platform? For what reason should it allow it to replace an incompetent candidate with someone else? This would only make sense if, in return for this transaction, the Civic Platform agreed to a radical change in the form of opposition it practices. If it rejected totality, daily aggression, those tugs at the ankles that tire everyone, regardless of the circumstances. If PO were to become a normal, democratic opposition – then we could talk. But like this, without any serious declarations, it makes no sense. It would be a harmful move for Polish democracy. Because it is in its interest to significantly rebuild the political scene on the opposition side.
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/496494-propozycja-zmiany-konstytucji-jest-bardzo-hojna-zbyt-hojna
-- PLATFORM HAS ABDICATED - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “PO's stance – further reinforced by Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska's aristocratic reluctance to talk to the plebs who, 'disregarding democratic standards, are breaking the constitution' – has led to a dramatic drop in polls. Furthermore, it contributed to very poor turnout forecasts, which further motivated PiS to insist on the May date. PO and the entire Civic Coalition have abdicated, and their candidate has gone into internal exile. Those fundamentalists who say that only a boycott will be the only stance worthy of law-abiding elites have themselves forgotten how they once sat at tables of various shapes to talk to people far from democratic ideals. And I'm not just talking about genetics.”
-- DĄBROWSKA ON THE PLATFORM'S ARROGANT SILENCE: “The largest opposition party, in an attempt to abandon the strategy of arrogant silence, will present a proposal regarding the presidential elections on Monday. It will thus accept the sad truth that it is PiS, the winner of the elections, who holds the political cards.”
-- DĄBROWSKA ON THE FALLACY OF CONTEMPTUOUS BOYCOTT: “There will be time enough for national mourning and embroidering banners with the likeness of Leszek Balcerowicz. Politicians have an obligation to resolve the electoral quagmire in such a way that all groups of voters can, with a bit of autosuggestion, vote for their candidate with a clear conscience. If this does not happen, the act of voting will be challenged. And if someone expects PiS to compromise itself with the May vote and that the strategy of contemptuous boycott will suddenly open voters' eyes, they are very mistaken. Not for the first time in recent history.”
https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/304199959-Dabrowska-Czy-Platforma-zejdzie-z-piedestalu.html
-- THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION WILL SPEAK TODAY - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON OKO: “The National Electoral Commission should take a stance, because the situation is surprising and unprecedented,” one of the members of the NEC tells OKO.press. The Commission members are outraged because, behind their backs, PiS has stripped the NEC of its influence over the organization of elections. This shows the scale of legal and organizational chaos before the elections that PiS is so keen to hold in May. “The legislator has allowed for a legal vacuum,” we hear.”
https://oko.press/dzis-pkw-ma-wydac-oswiadczenie-ws-wyborow/
-- MICHAŁ KOLANKO WRITES IN RZ THAT LEWICA REFUSES TO MEET WITH GOWIN: “On Monday, former Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin begins his Sejm consultations on amending the constitution. They will not be easy. According to our conversations, Lewica, for example, will not talk with Gowin.”
-- SZUMOWSKI IS NOT IN LINE WITH NOWOGRODZKA'S THINKING - KOLANKO CONTINUES IN RZ: “According to our conversations, this message was not in line with Nowogrodzka's thinking, which expected direct support for the May date from Szumowski. However, this was not explicitly stated. Szumowski also stated that he would issue his assessment of the regulations for postal elections when the 'law is fully formed,' meaning no earlier than after the vote in the Sejm.”
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/304199960-Jaki-plan-na-wybory-ma-Koalicja-Obywatelska.html
-- SZUMOWSKI DID NOT SATISFY NOWOGRODZKA AT ALL - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “He clearly stated that it would be best to hold normal elections in a year and a half or two years. The opposition is attacking Szumowski, not realizing that the Minister of Health's stance did not satisfy Nowogrodzka, the headquarters of PiS, at all. It is no secret that despite the skepticism of those holding constitutional power – mainly government members who have already realized that postal elections on May 10 are technically impossible to conduct – Jarosław Kaczyński will push for such a solution at all costs. Szumowski did not say that postal elections on May 10 are the best solution. And surely the PiS leader will not forget this. His consent to postal elections is conditional.”
-- THE OPPOSITION PROBABLY DID NOT LISTEN TO SZUMOWSKI: “However, one might get the impression that the opposition did not listen to Minister Szumowski's statement in its entirety, or did not want to understand it. After all, it consisted of three messages. First: presidential elections with polling stations cannot be held now. The earliest date for their safe conduct is when the epidemic ends. The epidemic, according to Szumowski, will end earliest in a year and a half, meaning when a vaccine for the SARS-CoV-2 virus is introduced.”
-- EXPRESSING DISGUST IS NOT ENOUGH - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON THE OPPOSITION: “Indeed, it did not satisfy the opposition either. However, what else could a doctor propose? Introducing a state of natural disaster? This is not within the competence of the Minister of Health. And even if it were introduced, who can be sure that elections could be held in three months? So the Minister of Health did what he could within his competencies and as a PiS MP. Of course, one could have expected him to resign. However, this would not be a good solution or proof of responsibility for the health of Poles. The opposition should consider what real scenarios are currently on the table, and what can be done to prevent the elections on May 10. Simply showing disgust for PiS rule is not enough. Because these will not be normal or fully democratic elections.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/304199957-Szuldrzynski-Wewnetrzne-rozdarcie-polityka-i-lekarza.html
-- THE EUROPEAN UNION MUST UNDERSTAND THE DIMENSION OF THE NATION-STATE - DARIUSZ GAWIN IN THE THIRD VIEWPOINT OF TVP KULTURA: “Up to a certain point, I was amused by the idea that Europe would build a common army. Now, such voices, after these experiences, will anger me, because it will mean that someone is detached from reality. This is a great challenge for the Union. I'm not saying it's unnecessary, but it will have to either learn this lesson and understand that the dimension of the nation-state is primary and fundamental, or it will cease to exist in its current form. It did not fully learn the previous lesson, the financial crisis, and the fate of Greece is the best proof. We will see what happens in the future.”
-- INFANTILE POLITICAL RATIONALISM, THE BELIEF THAT EVERYTHING CAN BE MANAGED - DARIUSZ KARŁOWICZ: “There is a certain metaphysical level with which this great project confronts, and I have the impression that this plague is striking a kind of infantile political rationalism that believes everything can be managed. No, not everything can be managed. The second point is that certainly, as a result of this experience you are talking about, the conflict between supporters of a return to a certain concept of unification based on nation-states and those who will say that what has happened is proof that we must boldly go further will greatly increase. I do not believe there will be many takers for the latter solution, because the experience of Italy today is a shocking experience. Anyone who considers the symbolic, but also real, concrete fact that when Italians need help: masks, respirators, and so on, Germany prohibits the export of such products. Indeed, this entire generation of Italians alive today will not forget this to the Germans for the rest of their lives. The letter from Gianluca di Feo, deputy editor-in-chief of 'La Repubblica,' an obvious supporter of the European project, is now being published, but bitterness seeps through his words that no one came to help. And who is helping Italy today? The Chinese. Masks, respirators are coming in large quantities. I know this from confirmed sources. If we also consider that the European project will probably have to face, hopefully not, but it seems to me that it will be difficult to avoid, the vision of closed borders and restricted movement, freedom of movement, that main idea. Then it may turn out that after all this, God willing, as soon as possible, we will be in a completely different world. The second big issue is what will happen to this model of late liberal individualism, which must face challenges it has not faced before. The issue of sacrifice, discipline, solidarity. These are very difficult challenges, and the question is whether there will be some shifts here too.”
https://teologiapolityczna.pl/cichocki-gawin-karlowicz-o-koronawirusie
-- MORAWIECKI PRESENTED A SENSIBLE PROJECT FOR REFORMING THE EU - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Once in a while, February has 29 days, Poland beats Germany in some team game, and Polish officials speak sensibly on pan-European topics. February of this year was therefore doubly unusual, first because it had 29 days, and second, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki presented a sensible proposal for reforming the European Union at the EU summit. During the negotiations for the next budget perspective, Poland proposed the introduction of three pan-European taxes that have appeared on the EU forum several times before – referring to a digital tax, a carbon footprint tax, and a tax on the unified EU market. (...) The new EU taxes proposed by Poland and the fight against European tax havens would not only increase the budget revenues of EU countries and the Community itself, but also curb many negative phenomena, such as speculation in financial markets, CO2 emissions caused by global trade, or tax optimization.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/reforma-podatkowa-szansa-dla-ue-wojcik/
-- I DO NOT EXPECT A DESTABILIZATION OF PUBLIC FINANCES - MAREK LUSZTYN, PRESIDENT OF PEKAO, IN CONVERSATION WITH MIKOŁAJ KUNICA ON BUSINESS INSIDER: “Poland's public debt is currently around 47% of GDP. This is one of the lowest ratios in Europe and a safe starting point in times of crisis. Of course, this debt ratio in all countries affected by the epidemic will clearly increase, both due to additional borrowing for the needs of fighting the economic consequences of the pandemic and due to the level of GDP decline, which in many countries is the largest GDP decline since World War II. This will be the price we have to pay for the hibernation of the economy and maintaining employment. In short, states, as the only entities capable of bearing such colossal financial outlays, are financing support measures through debt. The costs of servicing it globally and in Poland are currently record low. The activity of the NBP, using a wide spectrum of monetary policy tools, de facto precludes the occurrence of serious market anomalies and the inability to issue debt. In short, I do not expect a destabilization of public finances.”
-- LOW RATES WILL REMAIN PERMANENT - LUSZTYN CONTINUES: “Lower interest rates, of course, pose a challenge for the banking sector as they reduce the interest margin. We expect that very low interest rates will be a permanent element of the business environment for banks. The flat yield curve also reduces interest income from maturity transformation. This kind of 'Europeanization' of the environment means that the composition of banks' earnings will permanently change, and the interest income will play a smaller role.”
-- DEMAND FOR OFFICE SPACE WILL DECREASE - LUSZTYN CONTINUES ON THE REAL ESTATE MARKET: “It is clear that demand for real estate will decrease in the near future. Households will postpone certain decisions, modify them, or give them up entirely. Some investments (for short-term rentals and related to tourist traffic) have lost their rationale and will end with the sale of these properties. The revealed potential for mass remote work and companies reassessing their office space needs will likely reduce demand in this segment. However, it should be remembered that the Polish real estate market does not have the same significance for the real economy as in Spain before 2008, nor such intensive ties to the financial system as in the US at that time. The market will find a new equilibrium point with lower prices than would be the case in a world without a pandemic, but it will not cease to function. Let's also remember that in a world of zero interest rates, apartments will be an important and attractive class of assets in the long term. It is also important to remember that in Poland, we still have a housing deficit – there are 366 dwellings per thousand people, compared to the European average of 460, so we still have unsatisfied natural demand.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gielda/wiadomosci/marek-lusztyn-prezes-pekao-o-panice-na-rynkach/46lr2cs
-- PHOTO. Edward Dwurnik's Triptych on the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. Triptych Ghetto 19 IV 1943, 1989, oil on canvas, 156 x 151 cm each. Pola Dwurnik on FB: My father was born 77 years ago, on the day of the outbreak of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. He later dedicated many paintings to the theme of the uprising, including this triptych. https://www.facebook.com/edwarddwurnikfoundation/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Gałażewski.
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