state of play: 04/09/2020

POLITICAL STANDOFF: Gowin Awaits a Reset, Fijołek Urges Counting to Five, Considering August, Rzepliński Foresees Presidential Mandate Challenges, Szomburg on a New Transformation

Łukasz Mężyk

-- ADAM GLAPIŃSKI TURNS 70 TODAY.  -- BGK SHIELD TO AMOUNT TO 10% OF GDP, APPROX. PLN 212 BILLION https://300polityka.pl/biznes/2020/04/08/bgk-pakiet-pomocowy-dla-firm-wspiera-polskich-przedsiebiorcow/ -- SZUMOWSKI ON CERTAIN RELAXATIONS, EMILEWICZ NOMINATED, NITRAS ON ARMY REBELLION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/04/09/ -- MANDATORY MASKS AFTER EASTER - SE: “According to unofficial information from „SE,” the mandatory wearing of masks in public places will be announced today. We reassure those who do not have masks – the new regulation is to come into force only after Easter! Minister of Health, Łukasz Szumowski (48), has been informing for several days that he is very seriously considering this restriction. Doctors from the Association of Healthcare Employers, among others, have appealed for its introduction.” https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/uwaga-beda-nowe-obostrzenia-maseczki-obowiazkowe-aa-JtU1-ALqL-iAcq.html -- GOWIN SENT A SIGNAL TO THE CAMP: PLEASE COUNT TO FIVE - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “Everything indicates that when it comes to the vote on rejecting the Senate's 'veto' (which will require an absolute majority of those voting), with full opposition mobilization, the veto might simply be upheld. It is enough for the previously mentioned parliamentarians: Michałek, Sroka, Maksymowicz, and Wypij to vote against or abstain, and Gowin to join their ranks. Not to mention the other parliamentarians of Porozumienie, who directly admit that their support for the project on Monday was conditional, agreed upon with Gowin, and they are making their vote in May dependent on many other factors (including the development of the epidemic situation and their leader's stance). In short: Gowin on Monday (besides his resignation) sent a clear signal to the entire United Right camp: please count to five. Regardless of the assessment of the former deputy prime minister's behavior, it is impossible not to notice this when discussing the possible date of the elections.” -- THE LAST THING WE NEED IN A PANDEMIC IS A POLITICAL FIGHT OVER THE RECOGNITION OF THE HEAD OF STATE'S MANDATE - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “Finally, last but not least, the issue of the election's validity. It can already be expected today that such a postal voting system – if not prepared to exhaust all possible negative scenarios – will be protested by many citizens. We cannot guarantee (even at the level of legal sensitivity of judges) whether the appropriate chamber responsible for determining validity will not acknowledge at least some of the reported problems (such as those I presented above, but there are also others, legal and political, concerning secrecy or universality), stating that their scale is too large to speak of valid elections? The last thing we need in the post-pandemic era is a major political fight over the recognition of the head of state's mandate.” -- WE NEED TO RETURN TO REFLECTING ON SCENARIOS, THE AUGUST DATE - FIJOŁEK'S CONCLUSION: “The clock is ticking, and there is less and less time for potential corrections and effective state action to prepare for professional election conduct, even if the elections were to take place on Saturday, May 23rd. I understand that Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin and President Tomasz Zdzikot are efficient officials, but the challenges are numerous, and a professional response to a significant portion of them simply requires time and preparation. Even more so if Minister Szumowski and Prime Minister Morawiecki are right and we are facing the peak of infections in May. In my opinion, we need to return to reflecting on the scenario concerning the August date, which, incidentally, was on the table (and at one point even accepted) and still is. We have little time for this reflection, but in reality, it will be available until the very end.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/495090-gowin-liczy-do-pieciu-ale-w-sprawie-maja-to-najmniej-wazne -- GOWIN IS THE FIRST RIGHT-WING POLITICIAN IN YEARS TO SO OPENLY OPPOSE KACZYŃSKI'S WILL - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “All of this means that Kaczyński cannot be sure if the United Right will have enough votes to reject potential opposition amendments from the Senate to the postal voting. This would mean that a few days before the May elections, legal chaos would ensue, and the government would be forced to introduce one of the states of emergency to postpone the elections. How long will the Leader endure the moves of the Porozumienie leader, which he considers political insults? Gowin is the first right-wing politician in years to so openly oppose Kaczyński's will and for now, he indeed holds the better cards in this hand.” -- GOWIN WILL WAIT FOR THE RESET MOMENT - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “The former deputy prime minister has one foot in the government and the other in the opposition. Resigning as deputy prime minister gives him room to maneuver, time, and the opportunity to look for ways to postpone the May elections, but also to plan several moves ahead and prepare for a scenario where the epidemic leads to a reset of the current balance of power in Polish politics. He may wait for the moment when we will be talking about the United Right in the past tense.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200409319-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Mocne-karty-Gowina.html -- Photo. Jacopo Robusti Tintoretto, "The Last Supper", San Giorgio Maggiore church in Venice. "The Last Supper" by Tintoretto, painted between 1592-94, was completed in the year of the artist's death. His concept for depicting this extremely important moment of the institution of the sacraments stands in opposition to Leonardo's intention. The composition is dark, receding into the depths of the painting, with diagonal lines predominating. Expression, illumination, vision – dominate the concept for composing this scene. The light appears completely subjective. It flashes in two points – from the oil lamp hanging on the left and from Christ's halo. The oil lamp actually explodes, rather than shines, and the same is not much better around Jesus' head. Some wish to see in the light bursting from the lamp the manifestation of the Holy Spirit. Without getting entangled in interpretations, it must be admitted that nothing like this had been seen before in European painting. It is not surprising that the painting was not well-liked, for example, by Rubens visiting Venice. Somewhat later, Velázquez had to succumb to its power, painting a copy of it.” https://www.rp.pl/artykul/733564-Ostatnia-Wieczerza-Tintoretto.html -- ANDRZEJ RZEPLIŃSKI ON THE PRESIDENTIAL MANDATE BEING CHALLENGED: “We must consider that a new world order will emerge from the current epidemic deluge sweeping the world. The Republic of Poland cannot be a state where the appointment of the head of state by the nation contradicts the principle of free, universal, secret, equal, and fairly conducted elections. A President of the Republic elected in compliance with these principles will have – in the post-pandemic era – an indisputable internal and external mandate. He will be a partner to heads of state, he will be free from the consequences of taking office with the 'help' of a temporarily damaged constitution.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25855501,wolne-wybory-prezydenta-rzeczypospolitej-2020-przeprowadzone.html -- THE CHAMBER CANNOT ACT - MAREK SAFJAN in conversation with Ewa Ivanova in GW: “The Disciplinary Chamber, from the moment the decision was announced, cannot act. It cannot rule, undertake any actions within disciplinary proceedings against judges until the case against Poland by the Commission is concluded.” -- SAFJAN: CHAMBER JUDGES CANNOT RULE: “Let's turn the question around: can one imagine that a judge found to be not meeting the basic guarantees for his status, or at least risking not meeting such guarantees, could rule in one category of cases and not in another? Would he suddenly become independent and impartial in relation to prosecutors and legal advisors? The fact that the ECJ ruling mentions disciplinary proceedings against judges stems from the nature of the main proceedings before the ECJ, but the criteria for independence and impartiality are indivisible: either a judge can rule, or not. There is no intermediate situation here; any other stance would lead to an evident contradiction.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25856241,prof-safjan-o-orzeczeniu-tsue-polska-bedzie-w-ue-albo-poza.html -- WE NEED TO MATURE - JAN SZOMBURG in RZ: “It is high time to abandon the approach deeply ingrained in our cultural code: 'Let there be war all over the world, as long as Poland's village is at peace.' We need to mature. Now we are affected by a plague and an economic crisis – that is where our attention is focused. But this has not reduced the climate threats. We had an almost snowless winter this year, which deepened the drought and water deficit after the hot and dry 2019. Drought will affect this year's harvests, and these – food prices, which are already rising under the pressure of crisis phenomena.” -- A GREAT TRANSFORMATION AWAITS US - SZOMBURG CONTINUES: “Arranging and calming the rules of the game within the political community can open the way for a renewed explosion of Polish creativity and entrepreneurship – as happened in the early years of post-communist transformation. Now, a new great transformation awaits us, whose cornerstone will no longer be just my individual success, but the construction of entire development ecosystems based on a slightly different life philosophy, on creating productive closed-loop systems that conserve our planet's resources, on building collective resilience to threats associated with pandemics or the effects of climate and environmental changes.” https://www.rp.pl/Publicystyka/200409303-Dr-Jan-Szomburg-Tworczy-reset-po-epidemii.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Żelichowski, Adam Glapiński, Marcin Dzierżanowski.

Łukasz Mężyk