state of play: 04/08/2020
POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Trudnowski: Gowin is buying time and postponing a tragic choice; Chwedoruk: Solidarna Polska politicians are winners; Wielowieyska: PiS is fighting for a majority in the Senate
-- ONE YEAR AGO, THE NATIONWIDE TEACHERS' STRIKE BEGAN.
-- SEVEN YEARS AGO, MARGARET THATCHER DIED.
-- HOLY WEEK WITH SISTER MAŁGORZATA CHMIELEWSKA - WHAT WAS JUDAS' BETRAYAL ABOUT? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kWO6zzQXAw&feature=emb_logo
-- Spy Wednesday (Maundy Wednesday) – the fourth day of Holy Week in Christian liturgy, where the Gospel recounts Judas' betrayal. During the Liturgy of the Word, a passage from the Gospel of Matthew (Mt 26:14-25) about Judas' betrayal is read. On this day, the first reading conveys the prophecy of Isaiah about God's suffering servant (Is 50:4-9a), foretelling Christ's passion and death. Spy Wednesday is a preparation for the Easter Triduum – the last three days of Holy Week.
-- Photo: Fresco by Michelangelo Buonarroti depicting the prophet Isaiah, one of the four major prophets of the Old Testament. Painted on the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel in St. Peter's Basilica.
-- Photo: Prophet Isaiah as Raphael's response to Michelangelo's fresco, in the early Renaissance church Basilica di Sant'Agostino, near Piazza Navona in Rome. Inside, one can also admire Caravaggio's Baroque painting Madonna di Loreto.
-- CJEU FREEZES THE SUPREME COURT'S APPEALS CHAMBER, FOGEL ON SZUMOWSKI'S RECOMMENDATION NOT BEING BLACK AND WHITE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/04/08/
-- GOWIN'S GAME WILL BE ASSESSED ON MAY 10 - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI, PRESIDENT OF THE JAGIELLONIAN CLUB: “Jarosław Gowin is trying to buy time and postpone the moment of making a tragic choice between elections in May or the government's collapse in the middle of a pandemic. A coalition crisis, early elections, a potential technical government with support from Janusz Korwin-Mikke to Adrian Zandberg – each of these scenarios during a pandemic, economic crisis, and potential international turmoil is extremely dangerous. Elections in May mean an increase in infections and a spectacular failure of the state attempting to prepare for an unprecedented postal voting operation for 30 million Poles in a month. This is a ready recipe for a multi-month, and perhaps multi-year, constitutional and systemic crisis. Therefore, it is worth withholding a final assessment of the political actions of the declaratively former Deputy Prime Minister until early May.”
-- GOWIN IS PLAYING AT THE COST OF BEING MISUNDERSTOOD BY THE MEDIA AND COMMENTATORS - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Although this action seems like incomprehensible acrobatics to the majority of public opinion, it has a deeper meaning. Gowin, at the cost of being misunderstood by the media and commentators, is trying to avoid the necessity of making the tragic choice we face today: either elections in May or the government's collapse.”
-- WHETHER POLITICAL VIRTUE CAN BRING BENEFITS TO THE COMMUNITY WILL BE SEEN IN MAY - TRUDNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “It is worth withholding a final assessment of the political salto mortale of the declaratively former Deputy Prime Minister until early May. If elections in May are avoided, and the United Right survives at least until the pandemic subsides – we will owe him recognition for yesterday's acrobatics. Then history will once again show that political virtue can bring tangible benefits to the community and social recognition only when fortune also smiles upon it. And if not? Jarosław Gowin's political defeat will be the least of the problems anyone should be concerned about then.”
https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/04/07/zatrzymac-wybory-uratowac-koalicje-akrobacje-gowina-ocenmy-10-maja/
-- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON PIŚ FIGHTING FOR A MAJORITY IN THE SENATE - writes in GW: “However, Kaczyński is currently preoccupied with a completely different problem: he is not sure if he has a majority in the Sejm. So his people are tempting individual MPs from Jarosław Gowin's Agreement and the opposition to switch to PiS. Efforts are also ongoing to bribe a senator to destroy the opposition's majority in the Senate. Kaczyński reportedly hopes that they will be able to pass postal voting for everyone in the Senate without amendments.”
-- WIELOWIEYSKA ON GOWIN'S CONSULTATIONS WITH THE OPPOSITION: “After Monday's rebellion, Jarosław Gowin has nothing to look for in PiS. Therefore, he is currently conducting intensive political consultations with the opposition. Of course, not about a constitutional amendment to extend Andrzej Duda's term by two years, as this project is completely unrealistic. In the corridors of the Sejm, there is talk of forming a government – and various names are mentioned – a 'technical,' 'temporary,' 'national unity' government.”
-- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE OPPOSITION'S PRESIDENTIAL DILEMMA: “What's worse, opposition presidential candidates will face an even more dramatic question: what to do if Kaczyński consistently and successfully, and at the same time illegally, implements his Bavarian variant? Should they withdraw from the elections or call for a boycott? Today, the parliamentary opposition has no common position on this matter, and Jarosław Kaczyński hopes it never will.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25852106,czy-gowin-z-opozycja-odbiora-wladze-kaczynskiemu.html
-- PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK - THE WINNERS ARE THE POLITICIANS OF SOLIDARNA POLSKA: “I therefore think that in the current situation, the politicians of Solidarna Polska, who have maintained loyalty to this party, will be certain winners within the United Right, even though before the coronavirus, they seemed to be the part of the United Right that would emphasize its independence more. On the other hand, I think that after the last vote, the strength of Agreement, due to internal disagreements, will be much smaller. If nothing changes, various politicians from this milieu will sooner or later pursue individual paths for their continued careers in politics.”
-- THERE WILL BE AN ATTEMPT TO CREATE SOMETHING AROUND PSL - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “However, I have no doubt that an attempt will be made to create a liberal-conservative formation around PSL – perhaps with the participation of Platform, or part of Platform, but certainly around PSL and the Kukiz movement currently associated with it – once again. All attempts so far have failed because in Poland, the electorate that is culturally traditionalist and economically market-oriented is very small and does not offer a chance to enter the Sejm, and such an attempt will be made again, and I have no doubt that those associated with Jarosław Gowin will be the subjects there.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/494819-nasz-wywiad-prof-chwedoruk-zwyciezcami-sa-politycy-sp
-- ALL RESPONSIBILITY FALLS ON SZUMOWSKI - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “Poles are already extremely tired of prolonged restrictions and fear for their jobs and economic standing – in May, this state will likely be even greater. And if, according to Morawiecki and Szumowski's assessments, there is an increase in infections and a peak in cases precisely next month (as indicated by the curves compared to other countries), then perhaps the only solution will be to introduce a state of natural disaster, postponing the elections to the summer or autumn months. Unless, of course, Minister Szumowski decides that postal voting in May will not involve the risk of additional infection – but we will know the answers to these questions in about a week. All responsibility today falls on this man, who in recent weeks has gained the trust of many Poles, including those who are not PiS voters. He will likely issue final recommendations after Easter.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/494720-cala-odpowiedzialnosc-za-maj-jest-na-barkach-szumowskiego
-- THE OPPOSITION KNOWS THAT THE ELECTIONS ARE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “There are moments in politics when something that was a subject of dispute yesterday suddenly becomes – to quote a classic – 'an obvious certainty.' And this is what has happened to us. A few dozen hours ago, the opposition held its ground under the banner of 'postpone the elections or die,' but on the night from Monday to Tuesday, it quietly moved under the slogan 'the elections will happen, but we will do everything to make them as bad as possible and as difficult for you as possible.'”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/494879-opozycja-juz-wie-ze-wybory-odbeda-sie-w-maju
-- PIS CHECKED IF BRUSSELS WOULD RECOGNIZE THE ELECTIONS - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ AND KAMIL DZIUBKA ON ONET: “However, our conversations indicate that the number of people who vote does not matter to PiS. 'Turnout does not affect the validity of the election,' emphasizes our interlocutor from the ruling camp who participated in the work on the bill. 'Of course, in the event of low turnout, the opposition will question the winner's mandate, i.e., probably Andrzej Duda. But even if the elections were held under normal conditions,' argues the ruling camp, 'they would question it anyway. The opposition's opinion has no legal significance; Duda will be the legal president.' 'We even checked through unofficial channels what the international reactions would be, including in Brussels. They will recognize these elections as democratic and accept their outcome,' our interlocutors state.”
-- ONET ON HOW PIS WANTS TO REFINE THE ELECTION LAW: “There are more doubts. It is unknown what will happen to residents of localities where there is not a single post box and people who want to send letters have to travel several kilometers. Another problem is voter registers. Many of us do not live at our registered address. Therefore, according to Onet's information, PiS is considering further amendments to the law. This includes making it easier to apply for electoral packages for people who do not live at their registered addresses. The version of the law adopted by the Sejm puts such voters in a difficult situation: how to register in the voter list in another municipality if one cannot travel? 'We are thinking about resolving this situation. Perhaps such people will report by phone to the municipal office to be added to the list and order an electoral package,' says our interlocutor.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/jak-bedzie-wygladac-glosowanie-korespondencyjne-watpliwosci-wokol-wyboru-prezydenta/j3enbf0
-- WHAT IF THE OPPOSITION TRIED TO WIN THESE ELECTIONS? FOR EXAMPLE, WITH ONE JOINT CANDIDATE - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN CRITIQUE: “Duda's victory in the first round is not yet a foregone conclusion. Secondly, it is not certain who could make it to the second round. The survey was conducted before the PiS circus in the Sejm on Friday and Monday. The survey was also conducted before the stimulus package came into effect, which, as many Poles see, protects against nothing. And day by day, Poles are learning about layoffs, day by day they are terrified, and day by day trust in the government, which is speeding towards a wall and completely turning away from society, is dwindling. A society that, by a vast majority, does not want elections. Therefore, this 10-point polling lead for Andrzej Duda is not impossible to overcome by an opposition candidate.”
-- GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR POINTS TO HOŁOWNIA: “And although I don't want to believe what I'm writing, the only one left is... Szymon Hołownia. He has a clean slate, doesn't infringe on anyone's party interests, and knows how to run a campaign online. And from now on, that's the only kind of election campaign there will be. Hołownia also has an economic program slightly to the left of Kosiniak, similar to Kosiniak's, but without Kukiz, and a democratic reform program. True, he is a candidate of the Łagiewniki church with a branch in 'Tygodnik Powszechny,' but aren't Kosiniak-Kamysz or Kidawa-Błońska such candidates? Besides, if Hołownia were supported by the Left, it would probably not be difficult to demand a commitment not to worsen the legal situation in areas as important to the Left as women's rights or minority rights. And anyway, there is no possibility of improving this situation in this Sejm.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/a-co-gdyby-opozycja-sprobowala-te-wybory-wygrac-na-przyklad-jednym-wspolnym-kandydatem/
-- PIS IS DOING EVERYTHING TO UNDERMINE DUDA'S DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The logic of conflict has won again. Local government officials rebelled against Jarosław Kaczyński's will, so the new law is to enable elections to proceed anyway. Standards? Democratic values? Who would care about that in a situation of another total conflict. This time, however, the PiS leader has a more serious opponent. Not only local government officials are against holding elections in May, but also three-quarters of society. Postal elections may not be recognized as free and democratic by international organizations. As a result, instead of securing another term for Andrzej Duda, the PiS leader is doing everything to undermine its democratic legitimacy.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/304079882-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Logika-konfliktu-prezesa.html
-- JAROSŁAW FLIS ON HOW THE IMPERFECTIONS OF THE SYSTEM CAN FALSIFY JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S VOTE IN RZ: “Electoral fraud and crimes are undetectable in such a system. Any resident of Żoliborz, if they so desire, can send a ballot with Jarosław Kaczyński's PESEL code on a declaration (from the KRS database), with an illegible signature and a vote for Robert Biedroń in a sealed envelope. There is a 50/50 chance that when the actual vote of the leader reaches the commission, there will already be a 'tick' next to his name on the voter list. A correctly cast vote might not reach the ballot box at all. The commission has no tool to defend the voter against the fraudulent invalidation of their vote. If the packages were strictly verified, such a solution would make no sense. The fact that the number of distributed packages will be tens of millions more than the number of people who actually want to vote changes a lot. It can be expected that unused packages will circulate quite freely in society, tempting the most fervent activists.”
-- THE POSTAL VOTING CONSTRUCTION WILL FALL APART - FLIS'S CONCLUSION: “Jarosław Kaczyński is determined because the failure of this undertaking will mean his personal disgrace before his own people. But among his opponents, there is no shortage of determination or tools of struggle. The tried and tested weapon of bureaucracy – cautious inertia – will now be used with a sense of righteousness, out of concern for health and democracy. But perhaps even that will not be needed – this construction will fall apart at the first attempt to get moving.”
https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/304079898-Jaroslaw-Flis-Wunderwaffe-czyli-harakiri.html
-- DUDA WOULD BENEFIT FROM INITIATING THE POSTPONEMENT OF ELECTIONS - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The President should convene the National Security Council, during which he would preside over the development of a consensus with all political forces. Andrzej Duda could gain by initiating the postponement of the elections and seeking an agreement across divisions. In the eyes of many citizens, he would rise to the rank of a statesman and gain trust as someone who risked his career to not risk human lives. Naive? Yes, but the alternative could have tragic consequences. If the May election takes place, the President will not only fail to rise to the occasion but will also be considered an usurper by some Poles holding the office of President. By his own doing. The safety of Poles is in Andrzej Duda's hands today.”
https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/304079896-Jacek-Nizinkiewicz-O-czyje-zycie-walczy-Kaczynski.html
-- HOPES THAT SZUMOWSKI IS THE ONLY RIGHTEOUS PERSON ARE FADING - ALEKSANDER HALL IN RZ: “Hopes that there is at least one righteous person in the PiS government: Łukasz Szumowski, the Minister of Health, are fading. I admit that his serious tone in his statements also impressed me. His worried face inspired trust. We wanted to forget that he bears a significant part of the responsibility for the dramatic shortages in healthcare supplies. Szumowski also failed by not speaking out on the issue of the presidential election date. It is not true that we still have time. Keeping Poles in uncertainty on this important state matter, in times of plague, is irresponsible. Elections are too serious a matter for citizens to learn about their date at the last minute. Deputy Szumowski votes in the Sejm according to the will of the PiS leader. Therefore, much indicates that he is just another figure in his puppet theater. Fifth. I am raising the most serious issue.”
-- HALL WARNS OF DISTURBANCES: “Mass protests will not occur under epidemic conditions, but what will happen when the epidemic passes, and very many of us believe that we have been deprived of the possibility of democratically choosing our government? Anger will be fueled by the sense of injustice of people who have not received help from the state during the crisis, people who felt deceived by the propaganda of success of the authorities and government media. Collective anger and the feeling that the government cannot be changed through democratic procedures can lead to a scenario that I truly wish my homeland would not experience. I do not want blood to flow on the streets of our cities. Unfortunately, the policy pursued by the PiS leader makes this scenario dangerously probable. Therefore, we must sound the alarm before it is too late.”
https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/304079904-Aleksander-Hall-Polacy-moga-wyjsc-na-ulice.html
-- JUROVA TELLS ANNA SŁOJEWSKA IN RZ THAT SHE IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE POLISH ELECTIONS: “I have been following this process very closely. I am concerned about free and fair elections and the quality of voting, about the legality and constitutionality of such elections. If I were a citizen of Poland, I would want to know exactly how the voting will take place, as it will happen very soon. Postal voting is a major change, and this method will be used for the first time; people are not used to it. I would have many other questions, but it is up to Poles to ask them. We are left to remind the Polish authorities of international standards, such as the Council of Europe's recommendation not to make fundamental changes to the electoral code in the year preceding their date. Poland is a member of the Council of Europe.”
https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/304079893-Komisarz-Jourova-Niepokoje-sie-o-wolne-i-uczciwe-wybory-w-Polsce.html
-- SE DESCRIBES UNDUE BENEFITS RECEIVED BY THE WIFE OF THE PO LEADER: “The amount is impressive. In the documents obtained by 'Super Express,' we read that it concerns PLN 13,245.44. This amount accumulated from what ZUS claims was unjustly received sickness and care benefits. In a letter to Kuczyńska-Budka, the Social Insurance Institution provides specific dates from April to June 2019 when the woman, due to the benefits she received, was supposed to be undergoing rehabilitation and caring for her grandmother. What was she doing during this time? ZUS also has a specific list of accusations. The document includes a list of events in which the politician's wife participated. The list is long. During the time she was supposed to be unable to work, Kuczyńska-Budka participated in, among others, a concert in Sosnowiec, a volleyball match in Gliwice, and the Solidarity Day celebration in Gdańsk. That's not all. ZUS also accuses her of leaving her place of residence while receiving care benefits for her grandmother. During this time, the woman visited Warsaw, where she attended a gala for one of the newspapers and participated in a Congress in Katowice. We checked these places and dates. Katarzyna Kuczyńska-Budka indeed attended galas and concerts. She did not hide her activities and widely reported everything on social media. There are photos and recordings. ZUS must have also seen these reports, hence the serious reservations. Officials noted, among other things, that according to the doctor's recommendation, the sick person should not leave home.”
https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/katarzyna-kuczynska-budka-zona-lidera-po-pobierala-nienalezne-swiadczenia-balowala-na-zwolnieniu-musi-oddac-zus-13-5-tys-zl-aa-1X9K-pKcx-NrKT.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Sawicki, Dorota Warakomska, Renata Kim, Bogdan Pęk, Danuta Hübner.
live
12 min
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„This Isn't About Servility, It's About Responsibility for Your Words.” — Dworczyk on Czarzasty
23 min
„He Immediately Defends His Post-Communist Colleague.” — Przydacz on Tusk
34 min
„He Spoke, Among Others, with J.D. Vance.” — Przydacz on the President's Activities in Italy
36 min
Dworczyk: Marshal Czarzasty Should Not Speak in a Way That Could Harm Relations with the USA
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Cieszyński: Tusk Repays Czarzasty with Loyalty for Loyalty
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Siemoniak: Someone Invented It – Probably Cenckiewicz – That the National Security Council Should Be a Court for Czarzasty
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"Political Personal Business": Siemoniak on the National Security Council's Agenda
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„He Doesn't Have to Consult, He Expresses His Views.” — Siemoniak on Czarzasty
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„Sometimes Even Friends Argue.” — Siemoniak Calm About Poland's Relations with the USA
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