state of play: 03/31/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Onet Reports Universal Mail-In Voting? Szumowski on Elections: I Will Prepare a Strictly Medical Recommendation, Karnowski: Opposition Hasn't Fully Understood State of Emergency

Łukasz Mężyk

-- GOWIN ON THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF IMPLEMENTING UNIVERS MAIL-IN VOTING BEFORE MAY 10, SOBOLEWSKI ON THE ELECTION DATE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/03/31/ -- ONET WRITES ABOUT UNIVERSAL MAIL-IN VOTING AS A NEW PIS IDEA: "Law and Justice is considering introducing the possibility of mail-in voting for all citizens into the election code – Onet has confirmed from several independent sources. At the same time, PiS is working on an emergency exit plan in case the elections need to be postponed." -- ONET WRITES THAT PIS IS CONSIDERING A STATE OF EMERGENCY, BUT WANTS THE OPPOSITION'S DEMAND TO BE CLEAR: "Indeed, heated discussions are underway within the ruling party regarding a so-called emergency plan. According to our sources, one of its variants would involve introducing a state of emergency, which would lead to the postponement of the elections. However, PiS would want this to happen at the very explicit request of the opposition. The goal is to ensure that any restrictions on civil rights, as well as compensation that the state would have to pay, related to the introduction of a state of emergency, do not fall on the political account of the ruling party. This solution, however, is a last resort, as the autumn deadline for the presidential elections is the least favorable for Andrzej Duda. It is the incumbent president, as well as the ruling camp, who will bear the brunt of the consequences of the pandemic, both economic and social, in the autumn." -- ONET ON BLACKMAIL AGAINST GOWIN: "According to our interlocutor, Gowin was supposed to object, but Kaczyński allegedly threatened to remove Porozumienie [Gowin's party] from the government. – I cannot confirm or deny this information. The coming days will certainly be very interesting – stated one of the leading politicians of the ruling coalition in an interview with Onet. Will PiS ultimately decide on the May variant of the presidential elections, taking full responsibility for the fact that for the next five years everyone will be able to question the choice of the head of state?" https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-prezydenckie-2020-koronawirus-w-polsce-pis-analizuje-kilka-opcji/r2b57qm -- ŁUKASZ SZUMOWSKI ON DGP'S QUESTION ABOUT HIS RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING THE ELECTIONS (Klara Klinger, Grzegorz Osiecki): "I emphasize that the sole basis for my recommendations is the health of Poles. I will not change my approach in this matter. I have no knowledge today of what the state of infections will be before the elections or before the exams. I will not throw around figures and numbers because that is not the point. I assure you that I will prepare a strictly medical recommendation. It will, of course, have political implications. (...) When the elections will be and what they will look like, that is a more distant topic for me for now. But I emphasize, in due course, the Minister of Health's recommendations will appear and will be exclusively medical." -- SZUMOWSKI ON RESTRICTIONS CONCERNING THE HOLIDAYS: "I know this is a difficult time, I know the holidays are approaching. It's hard to experience them without loved ones. However, as a responsible person, as a doctor and minister of health, I cannot rule anything out." -- KEY COMING DAYS AND WEEKS - SZUMOWSKI CONTINUES: "We are looking and will continue to look at growth curves and daily differences, the number of patients on ventilators or in intensive care units. I cannot precisely answer this question today. We are comparing our curve to its course in other countries. The coming days and weeks will be crucial – differences in the course of the disease are visible in Spain and, for example, in Japan. The curve should not be sharply increasing; it should be spread out over time. We would like not only to flatten the curve but to lower it." https://serwisy.gazetaprawna.pl/zdrowie/artykuly/1465277,szumowski-koronawirus-wywiad-wielkanoc-liczba-chorych.html -- PROF. SIMON ON VIRUS DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS - quoted by Onet: "The virus will rapidly change its character, as was the case with SARS, and will cease to appear. It may smolder at a low level like MERS in the Arabian Peninsula region. Or it may remain in our environment. Most people will recover, gain immunity, and stop transmitting the virus between individuals – Professor Simon noted." -- PROF. SIMON ON ELECTIONS: "I don't think that in this country any specific group of people should push for any elections over the corpses of society. We have more important matters, we have a gigantic problem with the epidemic, there are mass layoffs – people are losing their jobs – said Professor Simon." https://wroclaw.onet.pl/koronawirus-w-polsce-prof-simon-krytykuje-zakazy-ministerstwa-zdrowia/nffnpz4 -- WE CANNOT CLOSE FACTORIES LIKE THE ITALIANS - GW DESCRIBES SCENARIOS DEVELOPED BY SCIENTISTS ASSOCIATED WITH GOWIN (Agata Kondzińska, Iwona Szpala): "That is why Jarosław Gowin is promoting a 'second phase of the fight against coronavirus' scenario in the government. The first is to suppress the maximum number of infections. – Now we need to identify the groups most vulnerable to infection, provide them with state care, isolate them, but ensure social assistance for those who cannot work. The rest of society should start functioning in some way. We cannot close factories like the Italians – admits Jarosław Gowin. He says that maintaining restrictions for longer can lead to collapse, for example, in healthcare. - Postponed surgeries will threaten the lives of many patients – he explains." -- GW ON GOWIN'S THREE TEAMS: "The lifting of restrictions cannot be a one-time event, however. Expert data is to be the guide. That is why three teams have been established at the Ministry of Science: one distributes grants among scientists for research and indicates future research directions; the second, an economic team, estimates the economic consequences of the epidemic; the third consists of mathematicians and computer scientists who forecast the spread of the epidemic. Last week, the advisory team began its work, headed by Prof. Maciej Żylicz – a biochemist, molecular biologist, president of the Foundation for Polish Science, and a member of the Polish Academy of Sciences. From here, a forecast of the epidemic's development in Poland is expected – a recommendation that can be used to build scenarios for the coming weeks." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25831176,druga-faza-walki-rzad-szuka-ekspertow-na-czas-epidemii-koronawirusa.html -- Photo credit: Jessie Homer, Emily Carr in the Ross Bay Cemetery, 2000. Courtesy of Various Small Fires, Los Angeles / Seoul. “*Self-taught Jessie Homer, a French artist, shows scenes from her Californian town that draw a line between the mundane and the macabre. For example, in Emily Carr In The Ross Bay Cemetery (2000), she shows us how tree roots wrap around bodies buried beneath a peculiar cemetery*” – writes the portal News Arnet: https://news.artnet.com/market/discoveries-at-independent-new-york-2020-1795302 -- THE SELF-GOVERNMENT WILL BLOCK THE ELECTIONS - GW front page. -- REBELLION OF SELF-GOVERNMENT BODIES AND DOUBTS FROM THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH - DGP. -- GOVERNMENT CENTER OF HELPLESSNESS - GW on RCB (Government Crisis Management Center). -- A COMPROMISE ON CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT WOULD HAVE TO BE REACHED IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS - Tomasz Pietryga in RZ: "An express amendment to the constitution requires at least six weeks, which means that political consensus across divides on this matter would have to be reached within the next three days. Otherwise, the amendment to the constitution could not enter into force before May 10. It would also not be possible to repeal the current order to hold the elections. The second option is for the government to introduce a state of natural disaster, but this means the risk of excessive restriction of civil rights and freedoms. However, the corset of deadlines in this case is not as rigid." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/303309861-Tomasz-Pietryga-Wirus-odwola-te-wybory.html -- OPPOSITION HASN'T FULLY UNDERSTOOD WHAT A STATE OF EMERGENCY IS - JACEK KARNOWSKI: "This is important: the constitution does not contain a provision stating that the electoral process is annulled as a result of declaring a state of emergency. This is not mentioned anywhere. There is no presumption that everything – including candidate registration – must be started anew. The Constitutional Tribunal would probably have to rule on this matter. And in the current situation, this is a crucial issue. The opposition calling for the postponement of the vote wants to replace the main candidate, who has clearly failed to meet the challenge. The opposition calling for a state of emergency has probably not read the law on the state of emergency. If they had read it, they would certainly not be so willing to entrust such immense power to the current government." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/493673-czy-stan-nadzwyczajny-przerywa-caly-proces-wyborczy -- FIGHT FOR NARRATIVE - WHO AND HOW WILL EXPLAIN TO CITIZENS WHAT IS HAPPENING - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "The dispute over the election date, which is absorbing media attention, is only the tip of the iceberg. The real competition is taking place on a completely different level and concerns... narrative, i.e., who and how will explain to citizens what is happening. We have found ourselves in a crisis that most people living in the wealthy world today have never experienced. Therefore, the battle to explain the causes and course of this crisis is global in nature." -- ONLY A SMALL GROUP REALIZES THE STAKES OF THE DISPUTE, AND THEY ARE NOT OPPOSITION POLITICIANS - PAWŁOWSKI CONTINUES: "It is very possible that the competition will be won by another 'great simplifier' who will convince people that he has not only found a miracle solution to global problems but has also found the culprits. And if only we give him unlimited power, entrust him with our personal rights and individual freedoms, he will fix everything. Observing the Polish political scene in recent weeks, one might get the impression that only a small group of politicians realizes how high the stakes of this dispute are. And these are not politicians from opposition parties." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/03/31/pawlowski-koronawirus-polityka-populizm-polska/ -- AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON CALCULATIONS THAT KOSINIAK WILL OVERTAKE KIDAWĄ: "How is it possible that Kosiniak-Kamysz is gaining, even though there is almost no election campaign, and Andrzej Duda, Prime Minister Morawiecki, and PiS politicians dominate the media? The PSL leader, even in brief appearances, manages to combine moderation with firmness, and makes the impression of an empathetic professional. All this is associated with the medical profession, which he refers to at every opportunity. 'If there were a war, a general would have the best chance; during an epidemic, a doctor gains,' sums up a Lewica MP. 'In the coming days, Kosiniak-Kamysz will overtake Kidawa. KO wants to preempt this overtaking. Later, it will be said that the candidate's poor results are the effect of her withdrawal,' speculates a Lewica politician." https://oko.press/dlaczego-opozycja-nie-chce-zbojkotowac-wyborow-prezydenckich-7-argumentow/ -- POLONIA WILL NOT CHOOSE THE PRESIDENT - RZ: "Agnieszka Tracz, author of the Polonia.net blog and a resident of New York, a metropolis gripped by the pandemic, also says that the elections have no chance of taking place. – For most Polish citizens living in the USA, exercising the privilege of voting in the presidential elections will unfortunately not be worth the risk of infecting themselves or others – she predicts. She adds that gatherings are banned in her city, and New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo has moved the presidential primary date from April 28 to June 23. – Considering the alarming rate of infections in the USA, even the most optimistic do not predict that the situation will change quickly – she insists." https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/303309892-Polonia-nie-wybierze-prezydenta-jesli-wybory-beda-10-maja.html -- LET THE RIGHT LOOK FOR HEROES WHO WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAILY, ARDUOUS WORK OF REBUILDING THE STATE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "But what we need to defeat the coronavirus is social discipline. We need more positivism than romanticism today. We see the effects of insurrectionary romanticism every year in road fatality statistics. For many, obeying the law is a sign of weakness. Even more positivism will be needed when emerging from the epidemic. Some are already predicting the greatest crisis since World War II. We will therefore need professors, engineers, and entrepreneurs who will rebuild the Polish economy together. And if the right wants to succeed in this endeavor, it should start looking for heroes today who will be associated with the daily, arduous work of rebuilding the state, rather than those who bravely resisted." https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/303309890-Szuldrzynski-Epidemia-koronawirusa-jest-wielkim-testem-zachowan-spolecznych.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Alojzy Pietrzyk, Tomasz Poręba, Anna Paluch, Elżbieta Jaworowicz, Justyna Dobrosz-Oracz.

Łukasz Mężyk