state of play: 03/21/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Żakowski: If they manage, they'll win not only re-election but also lasting good memory. If they don't manage - nothing will help them, Stankiewicz: PiS may not currently have a majority

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PROFESSOR EWA ŁĘTOWSKA TURNS 80 ON SUNDAY. -- LAW AND OPERA - LECTURE BY PROF. ŁĘTOWSKA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEjCCBgTSeM -- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI ON HIS VISIT TO SMOLENSK, THE LACK OF GROUNDS FOR A STATE OF EMERGENCY, AND THE TECHNICAL MODIFICATION OF THE ELECTION PROCESS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/03/21/ -- ORBAN INTRODUCES STATE OF EMERGENCY UNTIL YEAR-END, SUSPENDS PARLIAMENT, AND IMPOSES 5-YEAR PRISON SENTENCES FOR SPREADING FAKE NEWS: https://twitter.com/balazscseko/status/1241272447187419137?s=20 -- OKO.PRESS PRINTS TRANSLATION OF MERKEL'S ADDRESS: “Let me say that this is a serious situation. I ask you to take it seriously. Since the reunification of Germany, and indeed since World War II, our country has not faced a challenge where acting in solidarity would be so important.” -- MERKEL ON EGOISTIC SHOPPING: “However, we must maintain a sense of proportion. Panic buying, as if there were no tomorrow, is pointless and a sign of a complete lack of solidarity.” -- MERKEL'S OBSERVATIONS ON THE HEALTHCARE SYSTEM - EVEN THE BEST CAN BE OVERWHELMED: “Germany has an excellent healthcare system, possibly one of the best in the world. This can be a comfort to us. However, our hospitals would be completely overwhelmed if they had to admit too many patients with severe symptoms of the virus in a very short period.” -- WE ARE HELPLESS - MERKEL AGAIN: “This is what the epidemic makes us realize – how helpless we are, how much we must rely on the considerate behavior of others, and that through joint action we can protect each other and provide each other with support and encouragement.” https://oko.press/merkel-epidemia-uswiadamia-jacy-jestesmy-bezbronni/ -- THE BIGGEST CRISIS OF OUR GENERATION, DECISIONS MADE NOW WILL SHAPE OUR WORLD IN THE FUTURE - Yuval Noah Harari, Israeli historian and author of the bestsellers “Homo Sapiens” and “Homo Deus,” in the FT: “Humankind is now facing a global crisis. Perhaps the biggest crisis of our generation. The decisions people and governments take in the next few weeks will probably shape the world for years to come. They will shape not just our healthcare systems but also our economy, politics and culture. We must act quickly and decisively. We should also take into account the long-term consequences of our actions. When choosing between alternatives, we should ask ourselves not only how to overcome the immediate threat, but also what kind of world we will inhabit once the storm passes. Yes, the storm will pass, humankind will survive, most of us will still be alive — but we will inhabit a different world.” -- WE NEED TRUST, PEOPLE SHOULD TRUST SCIENCE AND IRRESPONSIBLE POLITICIANS HAVE UNDERCUT THIS FAITH FOR YEARS - HARARI FURTHER IN THE FT: “But to achieve such a level of compliance and co-operation, you need trust. People need to trust science, to trust public authorities, and to trust the media. Over the past few years, irresponsible politicians have deliberately undermined trust in science, in public authorities and in the media. Now these same irresponsible politicians might be tempted to take the high road to authoritarianism, arguing that you just cannot trust the public to do the right thing. https://www.ft.com/content/19d90308-6858-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 -- DIE ZEIT ON THE PROBLEM WITH PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT IN GERMANY: “On Friday morning, a general practitioner in Berlin can no longer stand it and posts on Facebook: 'Soon there will be no more disinfectants, protective masks, and protective gowns. If you have any supplies you don't need, contact us.' In the intensive care unit in Aachen, virus-resistant protective masks are kept in a safe and issued individually to colleagues. Other clinics are instructed by the Robert Koch Institute to set up stations in front of patient rooms where each caregiver can put on a personal mask that they can only use with a specific patient – so that nurses and caregivers can use masks multiple times during a shift. The fight against the virus is also a material battle. And material is currently scarce everywhere.” https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2020-03/schutzausruestung-coronavirus-atemmasken-schutzanzuege-krankenhaeuser-knappheit-hersteller -- ZEIT ON THE POWER STRUGGLE IN GERMANY USING THE EXAMPLE OF DIFFERENT STRATEGIES TOWARDS THE VIRUS BY BAVARIAN MINISTER-PRESIDENT SOEDER (who refused to shake Merkel's hand) and the MAYOR OF BERLIN FROM THE SPD: “Bavaria was the first federal state where Söder announced a state of disaster. Bavaria was also the first federal state to announce school closures this week after the aforementioned round of minister-presidents with Merkel. Three Bavarian districts were the first in Germany to introduce a general curfew. Söder was also the first to restrict leaving one's home on Friday. All of this shows that Söder is not afraid to create facts. He quickly implements measures he believes are correct. He notices concerns and resistance but does not let them guide him. Others have to orient themselves according to his actions. On the other hand, Berlin is certainly not one of the fastest states in terms of corona measures. The state hesitated for a long time before canceling important events.” https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2020-03/krisenmanagement-markus-soeder-michael-mueller-csu-spd -- IF THEY MANAGE, THEY WILL WIN NOT ONLY RE-ELECTION BUT ALSO LASTING GOOD MEMORY - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI: “For Andrzej Duda and his colleagues, I have only one piece of advice. Let them temporarily forget about the elections and deal with the crisis that awaits Poland. If they manage, they will win not only re-election but also lasting good memory. If they don't manage – nothing will help them, and in a year at the latest, angry people will remove them from the palaces of power.” https://magazyn.wp.pl/opinie/artykul/jedna-rada-dla-pad -- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON THE FACT THAT PIS MAY NOT HAVE A MAJORITY IN THE CURRENT SITUATION - writes in Onet: “But Duda's move is not a simple trap for the opposition, an attempt to silence them and force them to support the government in the face of an epidemic. This time, the matter is more complicated. Namely, PiS has a fragile majority in the Sejm – just five MPs. It can be assumed that at the next session next week, some of them will not appear – they are in quarantine, or even sick, like the Minister of Environment Michał Woś. The coronavirus is democratic, which is why several opposition MPs are also under observation. Nevertheless, it may turn out that next week PiS will not have a majority to push through its 'shield' in parliament.” -- HOW CAN YOU CAMPAIGN ABOUT WHAT POLAND SHOULD LOOK LIKE IN 5 YEARS WHEN YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT IT WILL LOOK LIKE IN A WEEK - STANKIEWICZ FURTHER: “The catch is that at the same time, the president and PiS do not take the opposition seriously. Duda is using the epidemic to conduct his campaign, while other candidates cannot campaign at all – after all, large gatherings cannot be organized. Moreover, how can you campaign about what Poland should look like in five years, when you don't know what it will look like in a week? -- THE AUTHORITIES DESTROY THE CREDIBILITY OF APPEALS FOR UNITY AND COOPERATION - STANKIEWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “Since in such a dramatic situation, the ruling camp acts mainly under the influence of political calculations, it destroys the credibility of its calls for unity and cooperation.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/koronawirus-w-polsce-wladza-jest-zdana-na-opozycje-ale-chce-ja-ograc-komentarz/z1m5yg8 -- ARE WE READY TO SAY GOODBYE TO THE OLD WORLD? - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “To combat the epidemic to an acceptable level, societies would likely have to be kept in a state of hibernation for long months, perhaps years. We still hope that perhaps the spring sun will drive away the plague, or perhaps it will pass as suddenly as it came. But what if it doesn't? Are we ready to say goodbye to the old world, to the way of life of all of us? To accept a drop in national income by a dozen or so percent, or perhaps more? Can the world stand still? But how to set it in motion if it involves real risk for large groups of the population?” -- KARNOWSKI ON EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DILEMMAS: “In a few weeks, extremely difficult dilemmas will be resolved worldwide – including in Poland. And this will eventually lead to some form of 'herd immunity,' meaning acceptance of the fact that the weakest, most vulnerable must be protected, but the rest – for whom the virus is not deadly – must return to work, schools, and also to the entertainment and consumption that drives the economy.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/492217-juz-niedlugo-bedziemy-musieli-podjac-arcytrudne-decyzje -- THE LIST OF PLOT TWISTS ON WHICH A PIS CANDIDATE CAN FALL IS EXHAUSTIVE - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI in TVN24's weekend magazine: “The list of potential plot twists on which a PiS candidate can stumble is virtually inexhaustible. And forecasts that until recently sounded like a disaster movie scenario now seem quite realistic. Let's imagine that in the near future, the virus is diagnosed in more members of the government – after Minister of Environment Michał Woś – or in the Prime Minister himself. How will the state function then? And what if the president himself – or any of his opponents – turns out to be a carrier of the virus? That's not all. We don't know how the members of the ruling team would behave in such a situation – would the information about the infection be disclosed immediately, or – which would be reprehensible, but cannot be ruled out – would it be hidden from the public? Would the president's spokesperson then also argue that the state is functioning normally and we should not think about postponing the vote scheduled for May 10? -- PIS WANTS TO SHOW THE BENEFITS OF ONE-CAMP RULE - PAWŁOWSKI FURTHER: “PiS clearly wants to show that the president and the government coming from the same camp guarantee close and effective cooperation in times of crisis. However, this is a completely misguided argument, because after postponing the presidential elections, Duda will remain in office and will still be able to cooperate with Morawiecki.” -- IF THINGS ARE SO GOOD, WHY FEAR A FIGHT UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS? - PAWŁOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “Making a choice at a time when normal campaigning is impossible, when for health reasons not everyone will be able and willing to vote, when no one guarantees the safety of election commission workers, may drastically undermine the seriousness of the presidential office and provoke accusations that the election was conducted illegally. And this, in turn, risks undermining the legitimacy of the entire political order, which will seriously harm us all, including PiS. If the current government is as effective and as good for Poland as the ruling camp claims, Jarosław Kaczyński and President Duda should not fear a fight for re-election under normal, fair conditions.” https://tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/majowe-wybory-to-skrajne-ryzyko,262,4567 -- WHEN ORDINARY POLES TALK ABOUT THE BUREAUCRATIC MAZES THEY'VE FALLEN INTO, MY ENTHUSIASM IMMEDIATELY WEAKENS - PIOTR ZAREMBA in RZ: “The current ones have probably passed the exam for the style in which they inform Poles about their work, and Dr. Szumowski would be a surefire candidate for any office. However, when ordinary Poles talk about the organizational mazes they get into when reporting symptoms of illness, my enthusiasm immediately weakens. And there is another area of war: the accusation that those in power may not know if they can cope, but they are certainly using the situation for immediate political gain.” -- IN MAY, THE MOOD MAY BE DIFFERENT - ZAREMBA FURTHER in RZ: “In May, the mood may be entirely different. Frustrations related to isolation in apartments, to loss of income, will deepen, and there may be impressions of growing inadequacy of district hospitals, which today are only waiting for developments – not necessarily completely ready. Those in power face thousands of challenges and questions from various fields. How do they intend to solve the problem of all school years, including the matura students? – that's the first one that comes to mind. And if incidents occur where someone blames those in power for someone's unnecessary death? Will the roles not change then? Will Duda, even with Szumowski behind him, not fall victim to this change in polls?” -- ZAREMBA ON KACZYŃSKI'S JOKING REFERENCES TO STALIN: “But writing somewhat humorously, the finale can be varied. Kaczyński likes to model himself – also jokingly, but with something more beneath the surface – on Stalin. After World War II, he noticed that wartime necessities had created a new class of military commanders and civilian bureaucrats who proved themselves in the era of crisis and became popular, contrary to the logic of the system. So he eliminated some (Voznesensky) or marginalized others (Zhukov). What does the PiS leader intend? He probably doesn't know yet. For the hard core electorate, he remains infallible, though invisible. Will he be able to use his usual methods of settling affairs, the logic of 'divide and rule'? The issue is that we do not know the scale or duration of the crisis. And after it, nothing will be the same. Poland will not be the same either.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/303209994-Wirus-i-polityka-Stan-wojny-wyjatkowej.html -- DONALD TUSK ON HIS QUARANTINE - says in an interview with GW: “I have been in isolation since March 12. Before that, I had public meetings in Belgium, Germany, Romania, Luxembourg. After returning, I started coughing, but fortunately, I didn't have a high fever. The doctor decided, without a test, that I had to stay home for at least 14 days. I am in telephone contact with her. My colleagues take care of me, every two or three days I find a bag of food under the door. My family stayed in Poland, in Gdańsk. I am in touch with my children and grandchildren to participate in their lives despite all this. The separation hurts me the most, but I bear this burden in solidarity with other Europeans. Thousands of people are in the same situation. I know how they feel.” -- DEMOCRACY DOES NOT MEAN THE STATE IS INEFFICIENT - TUSK FURTHER: “Democracy does not mean that the state is inefficient. In South Korea, it was possible to isolate sick citizens without introducing Chinese methods, without suspending free media and human rights. The authorities are subject to critical evaluation, but they are coping with the crisis.” -- PACKAGE FOR THE ECONOMY IS INSUFFICIENT - TUSK FURTHER: “However, the recent announcements by the Polish government regarding the anti-crisis package for the economy are very insufficient and regrettable. I have analyzed them in detail. It is striking that they do not take into account the condition of thousands of small businesses. The crisis that awaits us requires much larger and non-standard actions. I don't know the state of public finances in Poland, but in recent years money has been spent left and right, so I fear that the lack of funds may be very severe. I wish I were wrong.” -- THERE WILL BE NO ELECTIONS IN MAY - TUSK FURTHER in GW: “These elections will not take place in May. Firstly, it would expose thousands of people to the risk of losing their health and lives. Even a government, which I have a very poor opinion of, even a party as hungry for power as PiS, will not take such a risk. Secondly, campaigning cannot take place during a plague. Now everyone must cooperate in solidarity. People must believe that they are not being outmaneuvered. Election campaigning involves someone outmaneuvering someone. Therefore, it cannot last under any circumstances. The third reason is the drastically unequal conditions for campaigning. It seems that elections held under such conditions would not have a binding character, and would certainly be easy to challenge, also in a legal sense. PiS also knows that elections are currently unacceptable. Only for a reason unknown to us is it playing a spectacle.” -- ONLY A MADMAN OR A CRIMINAL WOULD PROPOSE PEOPLE GOING TO POLLING STATIONS - TUSK AGAIN: “I see no possibility for anyone in Poland to participate passively or actively in elections where human health and life would be at risk. China, so praised by some, where the epidemic began in November, needed four months to control the situation, and that with the use of very radical measures. In May, we will be living in pandemic conditions. Only a madman or a criminal would propose people going to polling stations.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25807948,donald-tusk-lek-na-koronawirusa-wiecej-zjednoczonej-europy.html -- THE CORONAVIRUS HAS DEEPENED NATIONAL PREJUDICES. ALSO TOWARDS EASTERN EUROPE, INCLUDING POLAND - KAJA PUTO in Krytyka Polityczna: “The European Union has not received competencies from member states to manage Europe during an epidemic – it can provide money, but health, migration, and security policy still lie with individual states. That is why today all citizens look with hope to their governments – and at their neighbors with at least distrust. The epidemic will pass, borders will be opened, the European economy will recover. But stereotypes that withered a few years ago will take root, and I may not live to see them eradicated. And perhaps that – alongside the social costs of the coming economic crisis – is what I fear most now.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/kaja-puto/koronawirus-narodowe-uprzedzenia-europa-wschodnia/ -- WE WERE NOT PEOPLE, BUT HUMAN CAPITAL - JAN ŚPIEWAK in PN magazine: “The world created by Thatcher, Balcerowicz, and their ilk stripped us of our human instincts. It reduced us, as in the movie The Matrix, to the function of a battery whose sole purpose is to provide energy to the system. We were not someone's children, parents, siblings, with feelings and needs. We were human capital. The system rewarded selfish and short-sighted behavior, and punished altruistic and far-sighted behavior. In this world, destroying the planet in the name of corporate profits was the most rational action.” -- ŚPIEWAK ON THE NEED TO INVEST IN PUBLIC SERVICES AND THE GREEN DEAL: “Today, we need not a policy of belt-tightening for the poorest, but the rebuilding of the state and its institutions. Investments in public services, led by education and healthcare, are necessary. However, this is not enough. We also need to invest in new infrastructure. After the crisis, we will have to create thousands of new jobs. We know that if we want to protect ourselves from catastrophic drought and further temperature increases, we must abandon coal and switch to clean energy sources. The crisis gives us a unique opportunity to accelerate the green transformation. Today, not only Poland but the entire world needs a green renaissance.” https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-03-21/koniec-swiata-jest-codziennie-chyba-ze-cos-z-tym-zrobimy/ -- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON HEJTER (The Hater): “It can only be regretted that 'Hejter' did not enter cinemas last year, at the height of the double elections and the double victory of PiS – then it would have become the subject of front-page discussions. But it must still be seen, pandemic or not, it will be one of the most important Polish premieres this year.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kultura/film/jakub-majmurek-hejter-albo-polski-trojkat-bermudzki-recenzja/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Varga, Jarosław Szymczyk, Michał Olech, Rafał Zasuń, Jerzy Jaskiernia, SUNDAY: Ewa Łętowska, Stanisław Stec.

Łukasz Mężyk