state of play: 03/20/2020

THE STATE OF PLAY: Anonymous PiS politician in Gazeta Wyborcza: "We're luckier than we are smart that Morawiecki is on the front lines today, not Szydło." Ruszkiewicz: "Kędryna was in Germany, but didn't get out?"

Łukasz Mężyk

-- GLIŃSKI ON ELECTION DECISIONS IN TWO WEEKS, PLATFORMA SUBMITS ZUS PROJECT - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/03/20 -- PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE DIRECTOR TRAVELLED TO GERMANY WHILE EVERYONE RETURNING WAS SENT TO QUARANTINE - SYLWESTER RUSZKIEWICZ IN WP: “According to Wirtualna Polska’s findings, last week an official took a private trip to… Germany. Our sources claim he may have been abroad for 2-3 days. The trip reportedly took place during a period when the number of infections in our western neighbor exceeded 2300, and eight people had died. According to data from March 19, there were over 11,000 coronavirus infections in Germany, and 31 deaths. WP’s information indicates the trip occurred on Friday. The return was on Sunday, the day borders were closed, including the border with Germany. From that day on, all individuals returning to Poland were directed to a 14-day quarantine.” -- RUSZKIEWICZ WRITES THAT KĘDRYNA WAS IN GERMANY FOR 3 DAYS: “Our sources claim he may have been abroad for 2-3 days. The trip reportedly took place during a period when the number of infections in our western neighbor exceeded 2300, and eight people had died. According to data from March 19, there were over 11,000 coronavirus infections in Germany, and 31 deaths. WP’s information indicates the trip occurred on Friday. The return was on Sunday, the day borders were closed, including the border with Germany. From that day on, all individuals returning to Poland were directed to a 14-day quarantine.” -- HE WAS THERE BUT DIDN'T GET OUT: “I was in Germany for an hour, maybe an hour and a half. I wasn't there for three days. I would have had to be quarantined then. I entered Germany on Friday at 11:30 PM, and returned at 1:00 AM. I had to drive someone to Berlin. I didn't get out of the car at all. It was 24 hours before the borders closed,” says Kędryna. He adds that he did not violate any safety procedures and did not have to be quarantined. According to WP’s findings, none of the presidential ministers or advisors have been abroad in recent days, with the exception described by us. The presidential spokesperson, Błażej Spychalski, did not answer our calls or respond to our request for contact.” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/dyrektor-z-kancelarii-prezydenta-wybral-sie-do-niemiec-nie-wychodzilem-z-auta-6490685020616321a -- JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI ON MERKEL'S RESURRECTION - WRITES IN RZ: “To explain that we are turning our lives upside down to preserve them. One could joke that one of the great political changes the coronavirus epidemic is forcing upon us is Angela Merkel's comeback. She was clearly tired after 15 years as Chancellor; months, even weeks, were being counted down to her departure. And suddenly, on Wednesday evening, she delivered the most important address to the nation of her entire career. Things are very bad, she made it understood. This is thanks to that knowledge from experts: she likely saw what was happening to the lungs of the victims.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/303199865-Jerzy-Haszczynski-Przyspieszony-kurs-dyscypliny.html -- MARYJKA SZUROWSKA IN 300GOSPODARKA NEWSLETTER - 300 SECONDS ON MERKEL'S SPEECH: “Eckart Lohse, head of the parliamentary desk at the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, wrote that in her entire career, Merkel has never spoken to her compatriots this way. 'This is a completely new tone,' writes Lohse. 'Angela Merkel is not addressing the people with a 'basta' tone, but is asking for cooperation and help.' (FAZ)” -- 300SEKUND - THE BEST DIGEST (!) FROM THE WORLD AND ECONOMY - SUBSCRIPTION: https://300gospodarka.us19.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=91b0a236c6725527fee39090c&id=9f4c29caa3 -- JAN CIEŃSKI IN POLITICO EUROPE ON THE CORONA CANDIDATE, DUDDA'S RISK, AND UNDERESTIMATED CASES IN POLAND: “But Duda is taking a risk. For now he's riding a wave of support as worried Poles turn to the government for help during scary times. But if the pandemic gets much worse, opinion could shift. As of Wednesday, Poland had 282 coronavirus cases and five deaths. However, those numbers are almost certainly a wild understatement as Poland has low testing rates — only 7,899 tests had been conducted as of Wednesday, far fewer than in other big EU nations such as Spain and Germany. Those who do manage to overcome bureaucratic obstacles and get tested complain of long lines and delays.” https://www.politico.eu/article/polands-corona-candidate/ -- ITALIAN PRIME MINISTER IN TALK WITH FT APPEALS TO EC FOR USE OF EUROPEAN SUPERPOWER: https://www.ft.com/content/2038c7cc-69fe-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75 -- WE HAVE MORE LUCK THAN SENSE THAT MORAWIECKI AND SZUMOWSKI ARE HERE, NOT SZYDŁO AND RADZIWIŁŁ - ANONYMOUS PIS POLITICIAN IN TEXT BY AGATA KONDZIŃSKA AND IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “We have more luck than sense that Morawiecki is on the front lines today, not Szydło, and Szumowski is the health minister, not Radziwiłł; they are doing a good job for us. Of course, everyone who governs benefits from it, but that doesn't mean there are no problems. We also make mistakes; everything can change in two weeks,” says a politician from Nowogrodzka.” -- KONDZIŃSKA AND SZPALA ON THE RESULTS OF PIS'S RESEARCH: “The party continues to conduct research and polls. – We have a sharp increase in trust for the authorities. Andrzej Duda is already winning in the first round, with over 50% support. Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska is losing, although she still has the advantage of the strong party label of PO. It's different for Kosiniak-Kamysz. He has developed significantly, but PSL is not as strong a brand as PO – says a campaign staffer.” -- RESEARCH FOR PO SHOWS THAT SOME PiS VOTERS DON'T WANT ELECTIONS - FURTHER IN GW: “The Civic Platform also commissions opinion polls and conducts focus groups weekly. It’s hard to draw firm conclusions or lasting political strategies because every day brings unpredictable situations. But there is – claims a politician from the party’s board – some information that is not very favorable for PiS, which is insisting on May elections. – The latest surveys we conducted show a huge, 25% jump in the PiS electorate of people saying: ‘We don’t want elections.’ I think they know this very well at Nowogrodzka because they conduct their own polls. Of course, as PO, we will appeal for a postponement of the date, but in reality, it will be the PiS voters who tell them what is possible and what is not. We believe that May elections are impossible to conduct. Polls show that PiS could pay a heavy political price for its stubbornness – we hear from a politician from the Civic Platform’s board.” -- ON THE LEFT'S ARGUMENT THAT THE PiS ELECTORATE WILL VOTE, ANONYMOUS PiS POLITICIAN RESPONDS - GUESSING FROM COFFEE GROUNDS: “PiS campaign staffer: – These are amateur calculations that anyone can make. But today, turnout cannot be predicted. We can similarly say that older people in villages who take buses will not go to the polls. It’s like reading coffee grounds.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25805230,pis-sie-nie-cofa-ale-wybory-sa-wielka-niewiadoma.html -- POSTPONING THE ELECTIONS BENEFITS KOSINIAK, A TURBULENT REALITY ELIMINATES KIDAWA - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The plan to postpone the elections clearly benefits only one candidate – Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. A change in date will provoke a discussion about a common opposition candidate, from which he may emerge as the victorious politician, especially if Donald Tusk officially supports him. A weakening Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska can only dream of the presidency in the current constellation, hoping that she will somehow make it to the second round, and then 'call a referendum' against President Duda and PiS; if sentiments in the country worsen significantly, she would not be without some chances. However, if the vote takes place in the autumn or in a year, no one will put forward Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska again. It will be a new, highly turbulent reality. And if the world is spinning, the weakest fall out of circulation. One can even assume that those KO politicians calling for the postponement of the elections actually want to get rid of their candidate in this 'discreet' way.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/492060-przelozenie-wyborow-to-ruch-w-interesie-kosiniaka-kamysza -- PERHAPS IN 1-2 WEEKS THE NUMBER OF NEW INFECTIONS WILL SLOW DOWN - ŁUKASZ SZUMOWSKI in conversation with Karolina Kowalska in RZ: “There are various scenarios for the development of the situation. Certainly, in the coming days, we will record about 1–1.5 thousand infections. Of course, in the following days, this number will increase, perhaps to tens of thousands. We hope, however, that in a week, or perhaps two, our preventive measures, such as closing schools, kindergartens, and shopping malls, will bring results, and the number of new infections will slow down. I emphasize the word 'slow down' here. Our goal now is to slow down the number of cases.” -- SZUMOWSKI ON THE INEVITABILITY OF LOCKING DOWN THE COUNTRY: “It was introduced to stop the spread of the virus. We must protect our elderly parents, people with cancer, and those with weakened immune systems. So far, the quarantine is working. I am deeply impressed by social responsibility. I did not expect Poles to be so disciplined. Out of 13,000 people in quarantine, checked by the police in one day, only a dozen or so were outside their homes. I realize that introducing so-called social quarantine, meaning the closure of schools, kindergartens, and shopping malls, is a serious financial problem for many people. I know that the entire economy will feel the effects of the lockdown. But we have a choice – a kind of lockdown of the country and limiting social activity to a minimum, or tens and hundreds of thousands of sick people, and additionally hundreds of deaths. I don't want doctors to have to choose who to put on a respirator, as in Italy.” https://www.rp.pl/Zdrowie/303199851-Koronawirus-Lukasz-Szumowski-o-walce-z-epidemia---albo-zamkniecie-panstwa-albo-setki-zmarlych.html -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI, THAT MPS WILL JOIN HIGH-RISK PROFESSIONS - WRITES IN RZ: “For many MPs, this could be a moment of trial. A situation where being an MP will not be associated – as it is daily – with power, influence, or privileges, but will put our parliamentarians before a choice: either fulfill their duties or risk their own health. MPs will suddenly stop feeling like the chosen ones of the nation, but will feel like tens of thousands of Poles working in professions essential for the functioning of the state, but exposing them to the risk of infection. Like doctors, nurses, and other medical staff who are on the front lines every day. But also those without whom our cities could not function: grocers, couriers delivering packages or food, municipal workers taking out trash. Each of them takes some risk when leaving home, but each of them goes to work.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/303199871-Szuldrzynski-Poslowie-przed-ciezka-proba.html -- WILL JAKUBIAK CAUSE TROUBLE IN THE CAMPAIGN? - MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ: “If he registers – and the National Electoral Commission (PKW) is expected to be particularly vigilant this year in verifying signatures, so more than 100,000 are needed – he will primarily be a competitor to Krzysztof Bosak and President Duda on the right. The coronavirus has already hit entrepreneurs very hard. Jakubiak, as an entrepreneur, can position himself as an alternative. And this, regardless of when the campaign will actually take place. Whether it will be the turn of April and May, or autumn 2019.” -- WITH JAKUBIAK REGISTERED WITH THE PKW, THE OPPOSITION WOULD HAVE A HARDER TIME WITH THE NUCLEAR OPTION - FURTHER KOLANKO: “Then Poland’s economic problems could be much greater. And one more thing. If Jakubiak becomes a candidate, it will be much harder for the opposition to implement the 'nuclear option' of all candidates withdrawing, which would annul the current elections. Jakubiak, regardless of the remaining five, will likely want to run a campaign. This in itself makes it worth watching how many signatures he collects and whether the PKW will accept his candidacy. Because politics – despite the epidemic – continues to be intensely conducted in offices.” https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2010/303199869-Marek-Jakubiak-namiesza-w-kampanii.html -- CITIZENS TO THE BALLOT BOX - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “The authorities are unconcerned that concentrating the population may worsen the epidemic, that some voter or polling station member may fall ill, or die. One tragedy already – the Smolensk catastrophe and the lie about a supposed assassination attempt – brought PiS to power. This is the price of PiS's victory and another five years of Andrzej Duda in the Palace.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25805317,obywatele-do-urn.html -- KAMIŃSKI DISMANTLED RCB - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “Until July 2017, Poland had a fully equipped, modern crisis management center. Its headquarters was liquidated by the current head of the Ministry of the Interior and Administration, Mariusz Kamiński. He turned it into the office of the coordinator of special services. August 2017, some regions of Poland are threatened by a flood. However, the Government Crisis Management Centre (RCB) is not responding to the situation. For years, RCB accustomed people to messages sent to their phones about natural disasters and weather breakdowns. Now, there are no such messages. The reason? The centre is in the process of relocating from its premises at Aleje Ujazdowskie 5 (next to the Prime Minister's Chancellery) and cannot operate at full capacity.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25805926,jak-kaminski-rozlozyl-rzadowe-centrum-bezpieczenstwa-to-ono.html -- HOW TO KEEP AS MANY EMPLOYEES AS POSSIBLE, AT LEAST AT A MEDIUM LEVEL - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA: “Despite everything, the offer for employees, who are the vast majority of the professionally active citizens, is not very generous. Ensuring 80 percent of average wages for full-time employees and 80 percent of the minimum wage for the self-employed and precarious workers means a definite decrease in current income for several million citizens. There is also no guarantee of full wages for people on sick leave, and currently, it is particularly important that no economic mechanisms discourage people from using sick leave. Maintaining citizens' living standards at least at a medium level should be the government's economic priority during the epidemic. Although Poland's aid package looks spectacular on paper, it unfortunately will not ensure this goal is achieved.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/morawiecki-koronawirus-pakiet-pomocowy-wojcik/ -- THE BEST OF 300GOSPODARKA: -- 6 GRAPHS: WHO IS MOST THREATENED BY COVID-19: http://300gospodarka.pl/wywiady/2020/03/20/w-szeroko-rozumianej-branzy-imprez-odbywa-sie-pogrom-mowi-o-epidemii-wiceprezes-targow-poznanskich/ -- VICE PRESIDENT OF TARGOW POZNAŃSKICH: A ROUT IN THE CONGRESS AND TRADE FAIRS SECTOR: http://300gospodarka.pl/wykres-dnia/2020/03/20/statystyki-koronawirus-wlochy-covid19/ -- DEUTSCHE BANK PREDICTS THE BIGGEST COLLAPSE SINCE WWII BUT ALSO A QUICK RECOVERY: http://300gospodarka.pl/news/2020/03/19/deutsche-bank-przewiduje-najwieksze-spowolnienie-od-ii-wojny-swiatowej-ale-i-szybkie-odbicie/ **** -- BIRTHDAYS: Andżelika Możdżanowska.

Łukasz Mężyk