state of play: 03/17/2020

THE STATE OF PLAY: Wielowieyska: Duda Gains Thanks to Morawiecki, Radziejewski: Serious Problems Become Trivia Here, and Trivia is Hammered in the Media Like Serious Problems

Łukasz Mężyk

-- CABINET COUNCIL POSTPONED FOLLOWING MICHAL WOŚ'S TEST RESULT, TUSK APPEALS FOR MORE TESTS… - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/03/17 -- WE ARE NOT PREPARED FOR ANYTHING BECAUSE POLITICAL DEBATE HAS LONG BEEN DRAINED OF IMPORTANT ISSUES - BARTŁOMIEJ RADZIEJEWSKI FROM NOWA KONFEDERACJA IN CONVERSATION WITH GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI in Gazeta.pl: “It all depends on the scale of this epidemic. In an optimistic scenario, the world will falter, but in a few weeks it will start to return to normal. There will be neither a deep economic crisis nor fundamental changes in other spheres, only some adjustments. In a pessimistic one, where major economies are paralyzed for many months, the death toll will reach hundreds of thousands, and after this pandemic, we will wake up in a new political reality. Both global, regional, and internal. We should be prepared for such a scenario in Poland. We are not. Also because public debate has been completely drained of serious problems. It has been like this for years. Serious problems are treated as trivia here, and trivia are hammered in the media like serious problems.” -- SERIOUS PROBLEMS ARE TREATED AS TRIVIA HERE, AND TRIVIA ARE HAMMERED IN THE MEDIA LIKE SERIOUS PROBLEMS - important words from Radziejewski to Sroczyński worth noting. -- WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH A LOT - RADZIEJEWSKI CONTINUES: “Everything has changed. Until recently, one could – barely – get by like that, because times were good. And we've been through a lot for these 30 years. The era of easy money, easy security, and easy independence is ending. We need to prepare for what will happen in 5, 10, 20 years. Moreover, 'black swans,' like this pandemic, mean it could be a year or two. History is accelerating, that's certain. We don't know the future pace, however. It's more responsible to assume it will be rapid.” -- DISMISSING GERMANY IS THE GREATEST FOLLY WE CAN COMMIT - RADZIEJEWSKI CONTINUES: “Dismissing Germany is one of the greatest follies we can commit. It has always been a large, important country with very serious potential. Today, it is still the fourth-largest economy in the world, seven times larger than Poland's. Under the right conditions and with political will, Germany will decide to translate its wealth into power and return to the list of superpowers.” -- POLAND IS ENTERING A TIME OF REEVALUATION AS AN INEFFECTIVE, WEAK, AND DIVIDED STATE - RADZIEJEWSKI CONTINUES: “Poland is entering a time of great reevaluation as an ineffective state, mired in a state of semi-anarchy, weak, and divided. We already have an area of legal dualism, all sides of the dispute are resorting to the heaviest artillery; this is not an ordinary – even if sharp – political dispute, it is a battle for the legitimacy of power. It's as if a revolution or civil war were about to begin, and it's just two parties fighting to win elections.” -- POLITICIANS HAVE DONE NOTHING AND ARE BOASTING ABOUT THE DROP IN UNEMPLOYMENT - RADZIEJEWSKI CONTINUES: “We still hear politicians boasting about... the drop in unemployment. How can they boast about this? It wasn't our politicians who did it; unemployment in Poland was eliminated by the ongoing demographic catastrophe, including the fact that two million people left to work abroad simultaneously. The West opened its labor markets, and they left immediately. The unemployment problem solved itself, with the complete inadequacy of Polish political elites who could do nothing about this gigantic brain drain, which is, after all, harmful to the state. They did nothing about it and are still boasting.” -- A VERY WEALTHY, BORED SOCIETY COULD OCCUPY ITSELF WITH WHAT WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT - RADZIEJEWSKI AT SROCZYŃSKI’S: “Andrzej Leder coined the metaphor of a 'slept-through revolution' to describe what happened in 1944-56, when Poland was effectively torn from the feudal world by the communists, torn away by force. Leder claims that Poles observed this process as if they were in a dream. I find this very apt. And I propose extending it over a longer period; in my opinion, we have largely had a slept-through transformation after 1989, and now we are in a period of a slept-through change of the international order. I turn on our television – regardless of whether it's anti-government or pro-government, let's be symmetrical now – and I see a parallel reality where the main problem is what someone said about someone, whether Piotrowicz will apologize or not, how the party leaders looked at the last convention. These are all issues that a truly deeply bored, very wealthy, and very secure society could be concerned with. Some Belgians or Swiss. We are not in a situation that justifies such carelessness.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,173952,25791147,radziejewski-ta-epidemia-moze-przebudowac-swiat-trafila-w.html -- THE SPECTER OF RECESSION PUTS GOVERNMENTS ON THE SPOT - GW front page. -- ECONOMIC "BAZOOKA" FROM NOW ON - RZ title. -- NBP FIRES ITS "BAZOOKA" IN THE FIGHT AGAINST THE EPIDEMIC - DGP title. -- SHOCK THE ECONOMY HASN'T SEEN - GW title. -- CORONAVIRUS IS FINISHING OFF COMPANIES - GW title. -- IT WOULD BE BETTER IF THE NBP DIDN'T EASE UP, PRINTING MONEY WON'T HELP - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Nothing bad will happen, as long as it's a temporary situation. But massive purchases of state debt by the central bank demobilizes the government from repairing public finances when the crisis passes. Quantitative easing was a response to the great financial crisis of 2008. But several central banks, including the ECB, maintained it even after the crisis passed. Governments became dependent on this mechanism, which ultimately led to stock market bubbles and investor confusion. It would be better if the NBP hadn't started this experiment.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,25796174,drukowanie-pieniedzy-nie-pomoze-gospodarce-co-powienien-zrobic.html -- DUDA GAINS THANKS TO MORAWIECKI - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “More and more PiS politicians and ministers are gaining favor in the eyes of the public. Health Minister Łukasz Szumowski, who has not had any image blunders so far, is building considerable sympathy. He opted for direct information dissemination. He appears in all media, is not afraid of questions, while some ruling politicians fear journalists independent of PiS. Alongside Szumowski, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and his chief of staff Michał Dworczyk are gaining. Thanks to them, President Duda is also gaining in presidential polls, trying to latch onto this group.” -- MORAWIECKI STRENGTHENS HIS POSITION - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “However, the internal war within PiS has now quieted down. The coronavirus has saved the cohesion of this camp – Morawiecki is strengthening his position, and everyone has united for one goal: to push through the presidential elections in May at all costs, before Poles feel the true effects of the pandemic. In such a situation, disputes recede into the background. If Duda wins, Morawiecki and his ministers will maintain their popularity, and the 'slaughter' mentioned by Wybranowski will not happen. That is why the PiS camp will defend itself tooth and nail against postponing the election date, even though the opposition is demanding it ever louder.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25795764,pis-dzieki-ci-skladamy-koronawirusie-nasz-zbawco.html -- EDITORIAL OFFICE OF FAKT, KATARZYNA KOZŁOWSKA ON THE NEED TO AGREE WITH THE OPPOSITION ON A NEW ELECTION DATE: “Election campaigns are always brutal, and their main principle is to reach the goal at any cost. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking it's otherwise. Therefore, if the United Right demands action rather than judgment from all fellow citizens, it should state its case clearly. First: cancel the presidential election date previously scheduled for May 10. Second: agree on a new date through broad consensus and find a legal solution that makes it possible. It's hard to keep two eggs in one basket. If the authorities want to be effective both in combating the virus and in achieving their political goals, they should remember this.” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/koronawirus-i-wybory-prezydenckie/xm7frl4 -- MAZUREK WROTE HONESTLY - IT'S NOT ABOUT STANDARDS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “PiS treats proposals to postpone elections in political terms – the May date suits the ruling party, not the opposition, so anyone talking about changing the date wants to help the opposition. Beata Mazurek from PiS honestly wrote this on Twitter, stating that the current situation allows Andrzej Duda to win in the first round, which is practical and sensible and will avoid unnecessary complications. If for someone, a democratic procedure like a second round is an unnecessary complication, it means it's not about standards.” -- CAN THE PRESIDENT BE SURE THE VIRUS WILL WORK IN HIS FAVOR - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Therefore, Duda's competitors have their hands tied today. But the president also cannot be sure that the virus will work solely in his favor. Poles' patience may run out quickly, and then social emotions may turn against the ruling party.” -- THE CONFLICT OVER ELECTIONS WILL NOT HELP - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Therefore, the discussion about postponing the election date should be a manifestation of responsibility for the state and democracy. We appeal to both opposition politicians and the ruling camp to meet and engage in dialogue on this matter. It is important that this be a joint decision in this difficult time, so as not to cause a political conflict that will certainly not help in the fight against the epidemic.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/303169858-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Epidemia-w-Polsce-Wybory-prezydenckie-trzeba-opoznic.html -- THE PRESIDENT CANNOT GIVE IN AND SHOULD GO TO THE FRONT - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “President Andrzej Duda cannot give in. He must show himself, he must go to the front. Despite the shouting, despite the witch hunt. If he were to give in, it would mean agreeing to undermine the moral foundations of his presidency. That would be the end. Those who are now calling for the head of state to self-isolate would not leave a dry thread on Andrzej Duda. They would trample him to death. And they would launch a campaign around the accusation that the head of state sat under the chandelier in a time of trial. Mr. President, you cannot let yourself be locked up in the palace. This is a very important front line today. Perhaps – in a few years' perspective – one of the most important.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/491534-panie-prezydencie-nie-moze-pan-ulec-nagonce-trzeba-jezdzic -- ELECTIONS AND THE CONSTITUTION: A SUBITO AMENDMENT - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “Those who want to postpone the elections should put PiS against the wall as quickly as possible by proposing a constitutional amendment.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25793930,koronawirus-wybory-i-konstytucja-poprawka-subito.html -- THE RISK OF UNDERMINING THE FAIRNESS OF THE ELECTIONS - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Holding elections in an epidemic creates a risk of undermining their fairness. And this can have powerful consequences for the entire political system and the stability of the country. Democracy – unlike authoritarian and dictatorial systems that rely on fear – is based on trust. On trust in the institutions and procedures for choosing power, as well as the regulations that set the limits of this power. It is thanks to trust that losers in elections acknowledge their validity and patiently wait for a chance for revenge. Even in Poland, a country extremely divided politically, opponents of the ruling party do not question the legality of its election. We may disagree with PiS, we may consider that both the party and its president are performing their duties poorly, abusing power, or even breaking the law, but there are no serious attempts to question the legality of their election.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/03/17/wybory-prezydenckiej-koronawirus-epidemia-pawlowski/ -- THE GOVERNMENT ADMITTED THAT OUR HEALTHCARE SYSTEM WOULD NOT WITHSTAND THE ITALIAN SITUATION - JERZY BUZEK IN CONVERSATION WITH JAKUB BODZIONY: “Returning to the fight against the epidemic itself: by taking such decisive action, the government has in a sense admitted that if the virus spread like in Italy, our healthcare system would not withstand it. The weakness of our healthcare system, evident for years, is the lack of anesthesiologists, paramedics, nurses, medical equipment, or finally – the lack of flexibility to react to threats like today's.” -- EVEN THE RULING CAMP WILL EVENTUALLY FEEL THAT THIS IS A BREACH OF ELEMENTARY DECENCY - BUZEK CONTINUES IN KL: “No, they should be postponed. Every election campaign requires enormous energy, which should now be devoted to fighting the virus, protecting the lives and health of Poles, saving the economy, and engaging in community efforts across the continent. Can you imagine that soon we will have many people on respirators (incidentally, most of them with the inscription 'financed by EU funds' or '…WOŚP'), and in the background – instead of huge mobilization and joint actions – we will hear the sounds of an election campaign with all its jarring notes? I think that even the ruling camp will eventually feel that this would be a breach of elementary decency.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/03/17/jerzy-buzek-koronawirus-ue-gospodarka-wybory-prezydenckie/ -- AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK ON MORAWIECKI'S FRENCH TRAP - writes in Oko: “The Prime Minister stated that there is no need to postpone the presidential election date. Since France is holding them, Poland can too. Especially since we are in a better situation than France. Six hours later, France postponed its elections. The Prime Minister may be doubly mistaken: it is unknown whether we will cope with the coronavirus better than the French.” https://oko.press/morawiecki-podpiera-sie-francja-a-francja-przesuwa-wybory/ -- EUROPE MUST DECIDE - EITHER A STRUCTURE CAPABLE OF SOLVING PROBLEMS, OR A LOOSE FEDERATION - RADOSŁAW PYFFEL IN NOWA KONFEDERACJA: “Europeans must decide whether they want a structure capable of solving continental problems, or a loose federation of states, which – let's be frank – will cope poorly with problems like coronavirus.” https://nowakonfederacja.pl/widmo-koronawirusa-krazy-po-europie/ -- THE NUMBER IS NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING FOR THE CHURCH - JANUSZ GAŁKOWSKI IN TEOLOGIA POLITYCZNA: “It seems that the fundamental, not fully articulated, assumption of the text is the belief that the Church's task as an institution is to be the largest and most powerful. A decreasing number of faithful (the author dazzles us with charts about dominicantes) or information about decreasing religious engagement among youth should be – as Jarema Piekutowski indicates – a measure of the Church's success. And yet, the opposite is true. The Church, or God, does not need the faithful; it is the faithful who need the Church for salvation. Departures from faith, from sacramental life, and finally from the Church, are a loss not for the institution but for the apostates. We preach the Good News, not to inflate statistics or for rhetorical exercises, but to bring as many brothers and sisters as possible to God. The decreasing number of faithful does not diminish in the slightest the multiplicity of the divine-human entity that is the Roman Catholic Church. From the Old Testament, we know that numbers are no limitation for the Creator. The words about the remnant of Israel are a great lesson for the faithful, perhaps primarily for those living today.” -- JĘDRASZEWSKI IS THE PUNCHING BAG, BUT I WOULD PREFER HIM NOT TO REPEAT JOURNALISTIC PHRASES ABOUT PLAGUES AND IDEOLOGIES - GAŁKOWSKI CONTINUES IN TEOLOGIA: “And although I believe that the Ordinary of Kraków has become the designated punching bag, I would prefer him to talk about the threat that a Gnostic attitude, 'always' in dispute with the Savior's teaching, poses to our thinking, rather than repeating journalistic phrases about plagues and ideologies. The problem is that the example comes from above. If such a prominent figure in the Church as the Metropolitan of Kraków uses these phrases (even if they are homiletically justified), there is a risk that this phrase will be repeated in dozens of subsequent sermons and articles. And this impoverishes both our language and our thinking. The Church in Poland is intellectually capable of taking on difficult theological topics and translating them into the language of sermons and publicistics.” -- "SACRO-POLO" INSTEAD OF FORMATION - GAŁKOWSKI CONTINUES: “We are increasingly lacking in solid intellectual formation, and instead, we are getting 'sacro-polo' and 'Sister Anastazja's kitchen recipes.' Is this an exaggeration? Let's then ask ourselves: do we know more about what diet Saint Hildegard of Bingen promoted, or what her concept of music, liturgy, and theology was, or what her mystical experiences were about? Since regaining independence (i.e., over four generations), there have been calls in our Polish Church to care for intellectual formation. Have these calls fallen on deaf ears? Our faith is withering because we have been afflicted by atrophy of the second wing. How do we want to contemplate and convey truth to others? It's not about everyone reading the Summa. But one must have something in one's head. Reading the Diary of Sister Faustina – an uneducated and simple person – it is clear that she mastered the basics of the catechism perfectly. Mystical experiences fell on fertile ground, not drained of sentimentality.” https://teologiapolityczna.pl/juliusz-galkowski-czas-apokalipsy-1 -- BIRTHDAYS: Elżbieta Jakubiak, Zbigniew Girzyński, Ewa Tomczyk, Andrzej Rozenek.

Łukasz Mężyk