-- PIOTR PACEWICZ ON AN EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE ITALIAN SCENARIO AND 28 THOUSAND INFECTIONS AROUND MARCH 28: “We must do everything to halt the upward trend of COVID-19 infections, because we are currently following an exponential curve, and the number of cases doubles every 48 hours. If this continues, by March 28, there will be 13,000 infections, which means 305 cases per million. Exactly the same as Italy had on Saturday, March 14.” -- IT COULD BE LIKE IN ITALY, BUT THERE ARE REASONS TO EXPECT IT TO BE BETTER - CONTINUES PACEWICZ: “As you can see, the number of cases doubles every 48 hours, almost perfectly following the pattern: 1, 5, 11, 22, 51, 104… If this were to continue – as we show on the bar chart in gray – the forecast is grim: we would reach the Italian level of infections in about two weeks – on March 29, there would be 13,312 people infected with the virus, or 350 per million inhabitants. Exactly what Italy currently has (data from March 15) (349.9 per million). In the case of an exponential function, the growth is so rapid that the bars with real data up to March 15 are so small they are almost invisible… Of course, it may turn out that this purely mathematical calculation will not be confirmed and, for example, there will be a dozen or so new infections this evening, not several dozen. Let’s hope so! There are also reasons to expect it to be better than in Italy.” -- BUT ITALY TESTED MORE OFTEN - CONTINUES PACEWICZ: “On the other hand, Italy has conducted significantly more tests to detect the disease – according to official data, by March 8, there were 60,761 tests, or 1005 per million inhabitants. In Poland – as reported by the Ministry of Health on March 15 – only 5493, which is 144 per million, i.e., 7 times less. This may mean that the number of cases in Poland is already much higher than official statistics (111 cases – March 15 morning).” https://oko.press/prognoza-koronawirusa/ -- SOBOLEWSKI: OTHERWISE, THEY WOULD ASK WHERE THE PRESIDENT IS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/03/16/#post-557553 -- KACZYŃSKI DID NOT LISTEN TO THE BISHOPS - JEDYNKA SE: https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/jaroslaw-kaczynski-poszedl-do-kosciola-nie-boi-sie-koronawirusa-zdjecia-aa-nVjP-YFwM-P1Y1.html -- IF TUSK WANTS TO POSTPONE THE ELECTION, IT MEANS HE RATES THE GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS AS A FIVE - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Besides, it's not just Tusk who sees that the government has not only not failed so far, but has gained broad, and to some extent, cross-party recognition. Some voices from the opposition, including the media, along with the creation of fake news and passionate nitpicking, are a clear expression of envy that things are proceeding as they are. Some, moreover, still fail to realize that the government did not oversleep, did not underestimate the threat, and was able to react decisively and flexibly; the opposition’s propaganda is so strong in some circles that they cease to see reality.” -- ONLY TROUBLES ARE A CHANCE FOR THE OPPOSITION - CONTINUES JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Tusk clearly counts on the postponement of the elections being beneficial for the opposition, primarily because the coming months may bring either an economic slowdown or even a crisis. This is a sensible calculation. Yes, today the opposition’s chances are primarily troubles – big troubles. In normal conditions, and with such a deck of candidates, winning will be very difficult.” -- IF VOTING IS POSSIBLE - DO NOT POSTPONE - CONTINUES KARNOWSKI: “Representatives of the ruling camp, when asked about postponing the elections, respond that it is too early to decide. That’s true, it’s too early. And indeed, the situation may become so dramatic that voting will be technically impossible. But if it is possible – then the elections should not be postponed. With such an opposition, so desperate, it is simply dangerous. Postponement will be used not to strengthen democracy, but to rock the Polish boat as much as possible, even risking its capsizing.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/491233-tusk-chce-przelozyc-wybory-to-znaczy-ze-ocenia-rzad-na-5 -- THE OPPOSITION WANTS TO ANNUL ITS - TODAY FORESEEN - DEFEAT - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “I emphasize: I don’t know, perhaps the situation will develop such that postponing the elections will become unavoidable. Safety issues must take precedence here. But today, in my opinion, opposition representatives are making these appeals for a different reason. They don’t want to postpone the elections, but to annul their – already felt – defeat. The plan to checkmate President Andrzej Duda with the candidacy of a woman of aristocratic roots, pretending she never governed, did not succeed. I’ve heard of surveys where opposition voters rate Ms. Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska and her campaign worse than Bronisław Komorowski. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz’s campaign arouses admiration mainly in the media of the Third Polish Republic and nowhere else. Robert Biedroń seems to have completely given up. Krzysztof Bosak is trying, but for now he has to fight not to lower the natural support of Konfederacja. Szymon Hołownia is, however, an undeniable candidate (from) TVN, and it shows. There’s no excitement.” -- PLAYING FOR A CHANGE OF CANDIDATE - CONTINUES KARNOWSKI: “Looking coldly, the opposition rightly concluded that success was not in sight. They decided, therefore, to play for the annulment of the upcoming, predicted defeat. They want to gain time for a deep regrouping, presumably a change of the main candidate. That is why, and not out of concern for democracy, this campaign for postponing the elections is so coordinated and will intensify.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/491219-opozycja-nie-chce-wyborow-przekladac-ale-anulowac-porazke -- ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI ON THE DYNAMICS OF KIDAWĄ AND KOSINIAK - WRITES IN GW: “So I spend a longer moment pondering the results of Kidawa-Błońska and Kosiniak. Within a month, Kosiniak reduced the gap to Kidawa-Błońska by 9.7 percentage points (from 22.2 pp to 12.5 pp). It is unlikely, but I calculate: if such a dynamic of change were to continue in the course of further election campaigning, Kosiniak could overtake Kidawa-Błońska in mid-April. And then…”. -- FOR THE SAKE OF ELECTION FAIRNESS, EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY IS NEEDED - CONTINUES MACHOWSKI: “And the opposition? In the summer of 1939, Władysław Broniewski wrote a famous poem in which – despite the fact that 'there are grievances in the homeland' – he appealed to Poles to unite in the fight against those who 'will come to set the house on fire.' The opposition, when the main task today is to combat the epidemic, is essentially doomed to 'speak like Broniewski.' The presidential elections must be postponed. The fairness of elections is not only about the fact that the votes taken from the ballot box are exactly as they were put in. For the fairness of elections, equality of opportunity is equally important. With the absence of campaigning and the constant presence of the ruling party in all media (because we are fighting the coronavirus), the May elections could be compared to a race where five contestants have to run 100 meters, and one – Duda – only 50. Such a race cannot be won against Duda, even if one is a far superior sprinter.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25791068,wybory-w-cieniu-koronawirusa-to-kpina-z-demokracji.html -- ONLY SHOWING OTHER CANDIDATES LIKE DUDY, ANY OTHER PRACTICE IS GROSS ELECTION FRAUD - NACZELNY RZ: “Only showing the counter-candidates on public television on equal terms with Andrzej Duda would be consistent with the appeals to the opposition to cooperate with the government in the face of danger. Any other practice will be gross election fraud.” -- LET TVP RISE TO THE OCCASION - CONTINUES CHRABOTA: “The opposition’s argument should therefore be to win fair, equal representation of candidates on public television (at least until the official announcement of the postponement of the elections). I am aware that this is a difficult demand, but it is hard not to make it. Only showing Andrzej Duda’s counter-candidates on TVP on equal terms would be consistent with the rulers’ appeals for cooperation between the opposition and the government in the face of danger. Any other practice will be gross election fraud, which the new president of television, Maciej Łopiński, and the old-new advisor, Jacek Kurski, will not be forgotten by history. Therefore, I take the liberty of making this appeal. Let TVP rise to the seriousness of the moment, not exploit the situation for hidden propaganda. Is there a chance for this?” https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1424336-Kampanijny-wirus-w-TVP.html -- ELECTIONS SHOULD BE HELD WHEN IT IS SAFE - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The coronavirus deprives the opposition of any possibility of campaigning. People are not interested in politics now. Everyone is focused on safety. Attacks on the government make the opposition appear as quarrelsome during a time of trial. And the opposition has no tools to fight the epidemic. The authorities have them, and the president is part of them, who is using the tragedy politically. If elections are held in May, Poles will vote with emotions, not their minds. Fear will overcome reason. Safety, you fool! – this should be the overriding slogan for politicians, and not just them. Today, more than ever, we need a sense of community, which politicians are trying to take away from society, dividing it in a difficult historical time. Elections should be held when it is safe. Because what if, even if someone manages to gain something from the tragedy? The coronavirus will pass, but the shame will remain forever.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/303159952-Jacek-Nizinkiewicz-Niebezpieczna-zadza-wladzy.html -- OPPOSITION CANDIDATES SHOULD JOINTLY APPEAL TO POSTPONE THE ELECTIONS - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN CRITIQUE: “An appeal to postpone the presidential elections would only have strength if it were a joint appeal by the opposition. Let’s note that together, opposition candidates represent 60% of voters. What’s more, such an appeal, if they appeared together in one campaign video, would be difficult to ignore. Importantly, the government would have to find itself in a dilemma, on the one hand, scaring with deaths and closing everything, and on the other, disregarding the threat at polling stations.” -- AND SO IN MAY, OPPOSITION VOTERS MAY TURN OUT IN LARGER NUMBERS AND IT COULD BE LIKE WITH THE SENATE - CONTINUES MAJOR: “Finally, Duda’s situation, despite the obvious advantages mentioned above, has one, or rather two, fundamental drawbacks. In the event of a sharp increase in infections, it will be the authorities, including President Duda, who will have to explain themselves. During the debate, everyone will pounce on him and beat him like a drum. However, if the elections are held during the epidemic, even its receding phase, it may be opposition voters who turn out in larger numbers at polling stations. They are more determined than Duda’s lukewarm voters, whose votes prevail in polls. So, in May, the scenario known from the Senate elections may repeat itself, and Duda should fear that the most.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/opozycja-przesunac-termin-wybory-prezydenckie/ -- BERNADETA KRYNICKA… ON THE UNPREPAREDNESS OF HER HOSPITAL: “Former PiS MP Bernadetta Krynicka critically comments on the planned transformation of the provincial hospital in Łomża into an infectious disease hospital. She says it bluntly: – This hospital is unprepared in every way. It’s like sending soldiers with fists to tanks. (…) – We are so unprepared that it’s unbelievable. There are no conditions, the staff is untrained and doesn’t even know about it – stated Krynicka” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,173952,25792260,krynicka-krytykuje-przeksztalcenie-szpitala-w-lomzy-jakbysmy.html# -- GOWIN: KRYNICKA SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS AN AUTHORITY ON PUBLIC MATTERS: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/03/16/gowin-o-wpisie-krynickiej-ta-wypowiedz-utwierdza-mnie-w-przekonaniu-ze-pani-posel-raczej-nie-powinna-byc-traktowana-jako-autorytet-w-sprawach-publicznych-nawet-w-sprawach-medycznych/ -- CORONAVIRUS OVERTHROWS THE MYTHS OF INDIVIDUALISM - TOMASZ S. MARKIEWKA in Krytyka: “We live in times of privatized responsibility. Everything depends on you and only you, you owe no one anything, and others owe you nothing – this is the official ideology of our time. In this way, we become 'entrepreneurs of ourselves,' who take matters into their own hands and manage their lives like a sole proprietorship. As sociologist Ronen Shamir observes, we are expected to be rational and completely self-sufficient market actors. An interesting side effect of the coronavirus is that it exposes the absurdities of such an extremely individualistic worldview. Suddenly, we remember that we all have to rely on others and on a well-organized state: from small entrepreneurs, through precarious workers, to large financial institutions. The world cannot be explained and understood solely on the basis of market categories.” -- MARKIEWKA ON RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE COMMON GOOD: “The coronavirus pandemic is a good moment to remember this better side of humanity. Today, we all need responsibility for the common good, not a focus on self-interest. And it would be wonderful if this time we didn’t forget this lesson once the risk has passed.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/koronawirus-obala-mit-indywidualizmu-markiewka/ -- WE DID NOT UTILIZE THE BOOM FOR IMPROVING PUBLIC SERVICES - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Poland did not use the period of good economic conditions for reforms or for improving public services. The PiS government strengthened propaganda and bought voters from 2015 onwards. Now we will pay for it.” -- MAY THE WORD REFORM SOUND WITH FRESH BRILLIANCE - CONTINUES GADOMSKI: “I hope that serious politicians will emerge who propose fixing institutions that are not working well, reforms, and the denationalization of the economy. The forgotten, and even hated, word 'reforms' will shine with new brilliance when people feel firsthand that without these reforms the state does not function or protect them. However, this is not a strong hope. In times of crisis, darker forces, feeding on human misfortune, often come to the fore.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25790907,gospodarka-i-koronawirus-koniec-karnawalu.html -- CORONAVIRUS AND ENTREPRENEURS: WHEN IN TROUBLE, TURN TO THE STATE - PIOTR WÓJCIK: “In situations of sudden turmoil, supporting private enterprises is absolutely justified. However, it is difficult to forget that business has repeatedly exploited various kinds of crises to push through solutions aligned with its interests, which, by some strange coincidence, have then lingered.” -- PUSHING THROUGH SOLUTIONS THAT BUSINESS DREAMED OF BUT WAS AFRAID TO ASK FOR - CONTINUES WÓJCIK: “Economic crises are also excellent opportunities to push through solutions that business has always dreamed of, but was ashamed to ask for before. This strategy was described by Naomi Klein in The Shock Doctrine, but we know it from our own backyard. For example, the possibility of widespread use of civil law contracts instead of employment contracts was justified by the very high unemployment that prevailed in Poland at the beginning of the 21st century. Currently, unemployment is 2.9 percent – only in one EU country is it lower than ours – and civil law contracts are still widely used. According to GUS, their popularity has even been growing recently.” -- STATE ACTIVITY MUST HAVE LIMITS - WÓJCIK’S CONCLUSION: “The lack of state activity during a crisis may, on balance, cost much more than the budgetary expenditures incurred to support businesses. However, this support should be conditional, repayable, and, as far as possible, controlled. After all, we have been told many times that there are no free lunches.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/koronawirus-przedsiebiorcy-lewiatan-wojcik/ -- A POSSIBLE INTEREST RATE CUT WILL ACHIEVE NOTHING - PKO BP ECONOMISTS ACCORDING TO 300GOSPODARKA: “According to PKO BP economists, the expected interest rate cut will not achieve the intended goal. 'The epidemic situation changes the way traditional (neoclassical) channels of monetary policy transmission should be viewed. A rate cut through the wealth and intertemporal substitution channel supports private consumption, but during an epidemic, it will not translate into increased consumption because people are staying home (e.g., in quarantine), and uncertainty about the future is at its peak,' they write.” http://300gospodarka.pl/news/2020/03/15/obnizka-stop-w-dobie-epidemii-koronawirusa-nie-pomoze-gospodarce-a-nawet-moze-zaszkodzic-mowia-ekonomisci-pko-bp/ -- FAMILY OF THE DECEASED FROM THE VIRUS ACCUSES JAŚKOWIAK OF LYING: “The president based his statement on information obtained from services involved in the fight against coronavirus in Poznań – PAP was informed by the spokesperson for the Mayor of Poznań. Over the weekend, in the local press, the family of a 57-year-old woman who died from coronavirus accused the mayor of lying.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/wydarzenia/artykuly/6462578,koronawirus-poznan-zmarla-prezydent.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Wanda Buk, Anna Grodzka, Józef Gruszka, Marek Markiewicz.