state of play: 03/07/2020

STATE OF PLAY: The Screenwriter of 'Heater': "Poland A's" Exclusion Made the Law and Justice Party Realize "Poland B" Seeks Dignity; Karnowski Post-Kurski Departure: Weakened Cohesion and Predominantly Question Marks

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 63 DAYS TO ELECTION SILENCE. -- HE FOUND ANALOGUE, HE LEFT DIGITAL - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON JACEK KURSKI: “He inherited an analogue, neglected television, scandalously underserved in many areas – he left a modern, digital, competitive one. He arrived when commercial stations triumphed in reach and influence. But their complacency eventually turned into anger, because TVP started winning in many areas. That's why they are happy today that such a competitor is leaving. It wasn't obvious. How it could have unfolded can be seen in comparative examples. In the most difficult moments, like the attempted coup in December 2016, thanks to his composure, attempts to violently change election results and incite panic failed.” -- WEAKENED COHESION AND PREDOMINANTLY QUESTION MARKS - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “This is a moment when another element defining the camp of change, the pro-Polish camp, in 2015 has been deemed necessary for change. One must see this in a broader context. This camp is undergoing a very deep and serious, but also consciously led, transformation, a metamorphosis. Something different is being forged. Better? Worse? Different. Today, there is only one thing to say: from the perspective of people concerned about Poland, despite several weaknesses, not always their fault, TVP has been an important point of reference in the last five years. In my assessment, President Jacek Kurski passed this difficult exam. And what's next? Certainly, a period of some transitional chaos, certainly a weakened sense of cohesion, and predominantly question marks. Because – I repeat – this change must be seen in a broader perspective.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/490090-kurski-traci-stanowisko-pozostaje-powiedziec-tylko-jedno -- THE PROBABILITY OF A STAGED CONFLICT IS VERY SMALL - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK, MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI IN OKO: “Meanwhile, Friday, March 6, 2020, was a day of bloody factional fighting within Jarosław Kaczyński's team. So spectacular that even the most suspicious commentators must admit: the probability that it was a staged conflict is very small.” https://oko.press/kurski-wylecial-z-tvp-duda-podpisal-miliardy-dla-tvp-wszystko-po-walce-na-noze-na-oczach-calej-polski/ -- THIS CAMPAIGN IS GOING POORLY FOR THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “This campaign is going poorly for Duda. He constantly has to explain himself (e.g., about an MP giving the middle finger; the head of his campaign, who bit someone, and neither apologized nor was punished) and doesn't have time to explain why anyone would want to keep Adrian in the Presidential Palace for another five years. Kaczyński raised Adrian (in the words of Duda's spokesperson, he made him his 'errand boy') and is stuck with him. And Duda is stuck with Kaczyński. Both also need a well-funded TVP. Only then can they maintain their percentages.” -- THE INITIAL SETUP TURNED INTO A REAL CONFLICT - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK CONTINUES: “The chief may have a headache now. The initial setup has turned into a real conflict. News of the war has leaked out, and there's much to suggest it's weakening the Law and Justice party by showing divisions. Voters need a clear message about what to think. They are supposed to think that TVP is great. The lack of a clear slogan about what is good and what is bad demobilizes the electorate, making people who expect clear directives feel lost. Their self-confidence disappears and, consequently, doesn't radiate to other voters. This is what Jarosław Kaczyński feared.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25763789,dudzie-idzie-jak-po-grudzie-wina-kaczynskiego.html -- KACZYŃSKI CONSIDERED THE PRESIDENT'S SULKING HARMFUL - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The campaign staff's idea of winking at moderate voters irritated Kaczyński. Because his vision for the campaign was entirely different. He believes the president's sulking over the 2 billion [PLN] is very harmful, as there is no time or space for wavering. Kaczyński has simple expectations: a disciplined army carries out orders. Such antics, questioning one's own camp's decisions, can be indulged in the middle of a term, but not two months before an election. He believes that showing weakness and giving in to the opposition, which linked Joanna Lichocka's finger to the 2 billion for oncology, is harmful. In his opinion, only the camp's unity and a clear campaign can mobilize the ruling party's supporters. Any internal friction weakens this strategy. Kaczyński is convinced of this because he saw that a hard line towards various professional groups and the radical language of politicians and TVP brought him electoral success three times in a row.” -- KACZYŃSKI BELIEVED NO ONE WOULD PERFORM THE TASK BETTER THAN KURSKI - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “This allows him to attract and retain less affluent viewers from small towns who like this version of TVP. Thanks to this, he can feed them the Law and Justice ideology. In short – with public money, he built a highly effective channel for the Law and Justice party to reach social groups that were inaccessible to many politicians. And Kaczyński believes it works. Therefore, he didn't want to touch Jacek Kurski and doesn't care about the weaklings who turn up their noses because this propaganda insults viewers' intelligence. The party leader thinks no one will perform this task better than Kurski, who will not shy away from the greatest injustice if it serves the ruling camp. Kaczyński has always rewarded absolutely disciplined soldiers, not leaving them alone on the battlefield. He sees this as the source of his success.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25763567,dlaczego-kaczynski-wsciekl-sie-na-prezydenta.html -- IT IS DIFFICULT FOR ANYONE EXCEPT THE MOST ARDENT FANS TO ACCEPT TARCZYŃSKI - PIOTR ZAREMBA in Polsat magazine: “Tarczyński is a type of politician whom it is difficult for anyone to accept, perhaps except for the most fervent party fans. His political merits are unknown, apart from brawls, provocations, and clashes with other people. He snatched a mobile phone from an opposition MP during a scuffle in the hall. He insulted a left-wing activist in a truly vulgar manner, even by today's lowered standards. He provided heavily distorted information about a candidate for mayor of Kielce.” -- I SHARE THE HOPE FOR A BREAK FROM THIS THEATER OF MUD-SLINGING - ZAREMBA's CONCLUSION: “One could say: just like Tarczyński, to whom we owe not a single legislative project or sensible interpellation. But the current Law and Justice MEP is merely a skirmisher. And Michnik was considered the leader of a camp for years. Not a party, but an environment engaged in metapolitics. He ends up as a retiree flinging warnings laced with venom. What I am writing does not mean, God forbid, that I approve of what happened to him. incidentally, I believe that Tarczyński, with his theatrical hatred, is heroizing him, pulling him up. Those young people who think Michnik's achievements from the times of dismantling the PRL are irrelevant today are wrong. But I largely share their hope for a breakthrough from this eternal theater, a spectacle of wrestling in the mud or jelly.” https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-03-07/zaremba-o-tarczynski-wieczny-warchol/ -- WE ARE CELEBRATING IMPORTANT ANNIVERSARIES IN A WAY THAT SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT THE HELPLESSNESS OF THE RIGHT-WING GOVERNMENT, IN POWER FOR THE FIFTH YEAR - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “By then, the Museum of the Battle of Warsaw will obviously not be built, because one should have started its construction four or five years ago. And back then, the 'good change' was so busy with the war against the total opposition, the war over the courts, and other wars, that it didn't have the time and strength to properly prepare for the celebrations. Of course, we will likely see historical reenactments, military parades, and several solemn field masses. And then we will return to everyday life and quickly forget about the anniversary. Meanwhile, one of the greatest victories in the history of Polish military affairs will once again return to the books. The way we celebrate anniversaries (or rather, don't celebrate them) tells us a lot about ourselves. And also about the helplessness of the right-wing government, in power for the fifth year, in this sphere. Probably around July, there will be a frenzy, everyone will be organizing something at the last minute, we will inflate our historical pride for a few days, and then, like air from a balloon, it will deflate again. And it will turn out that a gnomon for the centenary was the peak of our capabilities. https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/303069991-Pomnik-Bitwy-Warszawskiej-Gnomon-szczytem-mozliwosci.html -- JAN ROKITA ON CHANGES TO THE SENATE REGULATIONS - BUILDING A CHANCELLOR-LIKE MODEL FOR THE MARSHAL OF THE SENATE - writes in Polsat magazine: “Why am I writing about all this? For two reasons. Firstly, because I have the impression that contemporary politicians demonstrate an exceptionally poor level of understanding of the state's system, which unfortunately from time to time leads to not the best consequences. And secondly, to clearly state the thesis that attempts to build a chancellor-like model for the office of the Marshal of the Senate are a complete systemic misunderstanding. While the temptation to build fortifications against Mr. Grodzki is somewhat politically understandable (as there is fear in Civic Platform that one day PiS will 'buy' a senator and carry out a change ad hoc), the idea of copying an institution characteristic of the Prime Minister's office for this purpose is flawed.” https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-03-07/zaremba-o-tarczynski-wieczny-warchol/ -- IT WILL BE EASY FOR THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY TO SILENCE UNCOMFORTABLE TOPICS - JAKUB MAJMUREK in TVN24 magazine: “In a campaign where the virus becomes the topic of the day, it will be easy for the Law and Justice party to silence uncomfortable topics like the judiciary, the constitution, or Marian Banaś. It’s not the time to deal with all of that when we all have to fight the epidemic. Besides, in crisis situations, people usually unite around those in power and are less inclined to risk changing them.” -- IF THE GOVERNMENT MANAGES THE VIRUS, IT WILL BECOME STRONGER - MAJMUREK CONTINUES - THE "OLSEN GANG" NARRATIVE WILL FALL ON DEAF EARS: “For such an opposition narrative to work, the state would have to completely fail in its confrontation with the epidemic, which doesn't seem like the most probable option. If, despite various slip-ups, the government somehow manages the virus in Poland, it will strengthen the camp forming it and its president. The narrative about the 'Law and Justice Olsen gang,' popular among the opposition and sympathetic commentators, will increasingly fall on deaf ears in such circumstances.” -- DIFFICULT CONDITIONS FOR THE OPPOSITION: “If, in response to the government's continued actions related to the epidemic, the opposition becomes too polemical, it risks accusations that even in the face of a fundamental challenge, it cannot rise above the level of political mud-slinging. If it is too submissive, its voice simply won't be heard. These are not comfortable conditions for opposition candidates to conduct their campaigns.” -- MAJMUREK ON JOB PRECARITY RESULTING FROM CIVIC PLATFORM GOVERNMENTS: “The premiere of the new Bond was even postponed due to fear of empty cinema halls. To whom will the electorate turn in such a situation? To a candidate with the reputation of being social and caring for the weaker, like the Law and Justice party? Or to a Civic Platform candidate – a party that, while guiding Poland relatively safely through the 2008 crisis, did so at the cost of job precarity, and then was never able to recognize the need for a more active social policy?” https://tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/kampania-w-czasach-zarazy-podstawowa-emocja-strach,260,4537 -- MAREK BALICKI TELLS ELIZA OLCZYK IN RZ HOW KOPACZ'S POPULISM COULD FEED ANTI-VAXXERS: “I remember when the then Minister of Health said on television that our grandmothers used to say that raspberry tea was best for a cold. I assure you, it won't help with the flu. The government was saving face, saying they deliberately didn't purchase vaccines. But that probably wasn't the case, and by spreading various theories, it contributed to completely different problems. With its rhetoric, it began to reinforce harmful anti-vaccine conspiracy theories. At that time, various theories were popular – either that Americans wanted to rebuild economically after the financial crisis and caused an epidemic, or that pharmaceutical companies colluded to make huge profits from flu vaccines. And the government alluded to the latter theory, saying that greedy corporations wanted to foist unnecessary vaccines on us. As if the disease didn't exist. And the epidemic was a fact. The threat of swine flu was much greater than that of ordinary flu, as it also affected young people, for example. In Wolski Hospital in Warsaw, where I worked, our intensive care unit was full. Later data showed that alongside deaths from the flu, less than 200, there was a significant increase in hospital deaths due to respiratory failure. That's why we had to improvise, importing artificial lungs from abroad, which could temporarily replace failing human ones. And this was necessary because in about 1% of those infected, the course of swine flu was dramatically severe.” -- TODAY, IT IS NOT EXTREME PARTIES, BUT THE MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY RESORTING TO CONSPIRACY THEORIES - BALICKI to OLCZYK: “Meanwhile, we know that the government has no secret laboratories, and in today's age, with the internet, nothing can be hidden. This is absurd. It worries me, because resorting to conspiracy theories usually characterizes extreme parties. Meanwhile, in Poland, the main opposition party is doing it.” -- I AM ASTOUNDED BY WHAT KIDAWA IS SAYING - MAREK BALICKI CONTINUES: “The opposition, in turn, has no scruples about using this topic in the campaign. However, if the Deputy Marshal of the Sejm from the main opposition party, a presidential candidate, talks about the government hiding the truth about the coronavirus, I must admit it amazes me. Such situations did not occur in the past.” -- WHY DIDN'T YOU YOURSELVES GIVE 0.5 BILLION MORE FOR ONCOLOGY? - BALICKI ASKS CIVIC PLATFORM: “Besides, Civic Platform really shouldn't be playing with this, because they can always be asked: why didn't you yourselves give at least 0.5 billion PLN more for oncology? Serious issues cannot be discussed in this way.” -- WE DON'T KNOW CIVIC PLATFORM'S PLAN FOR ONCOLOGY - BALICKI CONTINUES: “Somehow, we don't know Civic Platform's plan for spending that 2 billion PLN on oncology. Without it, this demand remains just a catchy slogan. This year, there will be more money for healthcare than last year – by several billion zlotys. One can, of course, put another 2 billion PLN into the system, it will certainly be useful. There is equipment in oncology, we have enough hospital beds, but the conditions in hospitals and access to innovation should improve. So I am eagerly awaiting Civic Platform's program and systemic proposals regarding health.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/303069999-Marek-Balicki-Koronawirus-Wladza-robi-co-trzeba.html -- THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY REALIZED THAT POLAND B SEEKS DIGNITY; AS LONG AS POLAND A THREATENS THIS DIGNITY, POLAND B WILL SEEK IT WHERE IT HAS A CHANCE TO GET IT - MATEUSZ PACEWICZ, SCREENWRITER OF "GOD'S BODY" AND "HEATER" - IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JĘDRZEJ SŁODKOWSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “After the terrible events at the Equality Parade in Białystok, attacked in a pogrom-like atmosphere by hooligans and right-wing militias, some of the comments I encountered from the liberal side were in the spirit of: 'Look at those faces, you can tell immediately they are a separate species of human. Or perhaps only a humanoid creature.' This is how the spiral is fueled. Will the contempt you show me change my thinking? Of course not. It will only strengthen me in it. The Law and Justice party understood that Poland B seeks dignity. And as long as Poland A threatens its dignity and denies it dignity, Poland B will seek it where it has a chance to get it. Whether in the form of real social actions or cynical playing on nationalistic fantasies.” -- HOŁOWNIA, AN INTERESTING PLAYER, A ONE-SIDED ARBITER - PAWEŁ MUSIAŁEK IN THE JAGELLONIAN CLUB: “Szymon Hołownia rightly points out that at the current culmination point of the Polish-Polish war, we should be looking not for more attackers on the field, but for an impartial arbiter who will civilize the rivalry between parties and create a haven for statesmen who do not want to be ground up by party machinery. It turns out, however, that one cannot be both a party to a dispute and an arbiter.” -- MUSIAŁEK WRITES ABOUT HOŁOWNIA FROM A DIFFERENT GENERATION: “Hołownia is fresh. In terms of language, communication, or even the method of financing, he appears as a candidate from a different generation. The freshness of his perspective on many public matters and his way of operating, different from the traditional for party candidates, could be a breath of fresh air in a stuffy room.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/03/04/szymon-holownia-ciekawy-zawodnik-jednostronny-arbiter/ -- POLITICAL DIVISIONS HAVE TRANSLATED INTO CLASS DIVISIONS IN THE WORST POSSIBLE WAY, WE ARE SCREWED - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “As a society, we are truly screwed. Political divisions have overlaid class divisions in the worst possible way. Values such as tolerance, equality, openness are perceived as traits that successful people can 'afford.' And for these values to exist in society, the middle class, lower-middle class, and working class must also adhere to them. They cannot be solely the characteristic of worldly people who have seen it all and are surprised by nothing. Because what's wrong with Tomek not knowing how to eat a shrimp?” https://wyborcza.pl/7,101707,25766030,mamy-przerabane-jesli-nie-przestaniemy-gardzic-wyborcami-pis-u.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Dobrosz, SUNDAY: Tomasz Latos.

Łukasz Mężyk