state of play: 01/30/2020

STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski: What about citizens electing judges? Gadomski: Fiesta's over, the treasury is aggressive towards entrepreneurs because the government needs money, Szułdrzyński: PAD will have a hiccup

Łukasz Mężyk

-- FIESTA'S OVER, GOOD TIMES HAVE ENDED - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “The treasury's actions towards entrepreneurs are increasingly aggressive because the government needs money to buy voter support. The stifling, nationalistic atmosphere introduced by PiS and the devastation of the courts discourage foreign investors, while legal uncertainty makes domestic companies reluctant to expand their operations. The PiS government benefited from excellent international economic conditions in the previous term and inherited a self-sustaining, growing economy. Much indicates that the good times have ended.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,25646468,dzialania-pis-hamuja-gospodarke.html -- ABOUT KACZYŃSKI POSTPONING HIS KNEE SURGERY UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION: “Whether PiS will have full power depends on the presidential election in May. - This is a crucial test for us – a close associate of Jarosław Kaczyński (71) tells us. Therefore, as 'Super Express' has learned, the PiS leader will be heavily involved in the presidential campaign, postponing his second knee surgery until after the elections. - The leader will travel around Poland, meet with voters, and try to convince them of our views – our interlocutor emphasizes.” https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/duda-wazniejszy-niz-kolano-prezes-pis-aktywnie-wlaczy-sie-w-kampanie-prezydencka-aa-UjKR-X3tk-yow3.html -- WHAT TIMES WE LIVE IN, OLIGARCHIC CZECH REPUBLIC SHOULD RATHER LOOK IN THE MIRROR REGARDING THE RULE OF LAW - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “What times we live in. It seems that another blow to our sovereignty will be attempted by her, Viera Jourova, an EU commissioner with a very unusual past and a childlike expression. Although Christianity came to us from the Czech Republic, Dobrówka/Dobrawa had something priceless in the realm of faith: credibility. But in the sphere of democracy and the rule of law, the oligarchic Czech Republic should rather look in the mirror than lecture us.” -- WHAT ABOUT ELECTING JUDGES BY CITIZENS? - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “One needs to have an open mind on this matter. If the judicial community cannot be opened up through reforms of the current system, perhaps we should try a different approach? Why not consider a shocking democratization of the judiciary by drawing on the experiences of Anglo-Saxon countries? Perhaps we should opt for the election of judges by citizens? For justices of the peace? This would also have the advantage of dispelling the accusation of allegedly seeking to politicize the judiciary.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/484586-a-moze-pojsc-w-strone-wybieralnosci-sedziow-przez-obywateli -- ZIOBRO PROFITS FROM THE DISPUTE, THE PRESIDENT FEELS GREAT IN IT, BUT IT WILL COME BACK TO HAUNT HIM - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Zbigniew Ziobro also benefits from the dispute. Among the most radical right-wing voters – and it is precisely this electorate's hegemony that he cares about most – he gains fame as the first tough guy who did not bow to Europe. President Duda also seems to feel great, getting worked up in his speeches at successive rallies and seeing how the audience enthusiastically reacts to his increasingly harsh language, tirades against judges, and promises to thoroughly cleanse the Polish house. Although, in my opinion, these statements will eventually come back to haunt him.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/301299905-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Jeszcze-mozna-uniknac-katastrofy.html -- FURTHER FROM COMPROMISE, NOT CLOSER - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “This chain of events makes it difficult to consider Wednesday's meeting between President Andrzej Duda and representatives of parliamentary clubs a step towards an agreement. And – unfortunately – the "good change" camp, arming itself with further legal arguments, is today more inclined to continue its aggressive course towards the judiciary than to seek compromise solutions. And subsequent decisions by the European Commission and referrals to the ECJ have no bearing today on the decisions made by Jarosław Kaczyński's party.” https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1421160-Coraz-dalej--do-kompromisu.html -- AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK RECONSTRUCTS THE COURSE OF THE MEETING WITH PAD - THE PRESIDENT'S REACTION TO THE REQUEST FOR PRESSURE TO DISCLOSE LISTS OF SUPPORT FOR THE KRS: “Jakub Kulesza from Konfederacja asked Andrzej Duda to withhold signing the law until the lists of support for candidates to the National Council of the Judiciary (KRS) are published. The President responded that the lists should not be published. 'Judges appointed by the new KRS are being repressed. These are human dramas' – Sylwia Gregorczyk-Abram (Wolne Sądy) tells OKO.press, another participant in the meeting, about President Duda's words. For the President, this was an argument for not disclosing the lists of support. 'I see no possibility of this law being vetoed,' concludes Gregorczyk-Abram. 'I don't have the impression, which the President's Chancellery might have wanted to create, that Andrzej Duda is open to all arguments. The discussion showed that he fully shares the government's position.'” -- SZCZĘŚNIAK ON PAD CONSIDERING THE LEFT'S IDEA GOOD: “Lewica speaks of its success. They wanted the president to refrain from appointing new judges until the crisis surrounding the judiciary was resolved. 'The President said he would consider it because it's a good idea. That's a big deal,' says Krzysztof Gawkowski.” -- SZCZĘŚNIAK CALCULATED THAT PAD MEETS WITH THE OPPOSITION ONCE A YEAR AND FIVE WEEKS: “This is the fourth meeting in Andrzej Duda's presidency with opposition representatives. It occurs on average once a year and five weeks apart.” https://oko.press/po-spotkaniu-opozycji-z-duda-byly-emocje-podniesione-glosy-a-prezydent-pietnowal-represje/ -- THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL RULES UNDER PIS'S DICTATE - GW's lead story. -- THE TRIBUNAL HAS EXECUTED PIS'S WILL - GW headline. -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK COMMENTING ON ŻAKOWSKI'S CONVERSATION WITH CHWEDORUK - PIS GROWS WHEN DISPUTES ARISE OVER ISSUES UNCLEAR TO A LARGE PART OF THE ELECTORATE: “A vicious cycle that benefits PiS as a party that has its share of misdeeds, has sinned, and has alienated some voters, but still appears as a group striving for change – for better or worse, with various side effects – but still changing the state. This is compounded by the social right of veto (as Jacek Karnowski called it), which allows for the sanding down of major flaws through nominal or real steps backward and concessions. Chwedoruk also notes this: PiS grows when a bipolar dispute arises over issues that are unclear to a large part of the electorate. When the dispute is clear, PiS avoids the fight. Even when it has to admit defeat. As in the case of bonuses for ministers or President Banaś – assesses the political scientist, adding that "PiS is less willing to make concessions today than in 2015" – especially on issues not burdened by public interest and real or even possible widespread outrage.” -- EVEN THE EXTERNALLY OBSERVING HOŁOWNIA GETS SWEPT UP IN THE NARRATIVE OF FRANKENSTEIN - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: “If the professor's conclusions are true, then in this logic, the opposition should break with the narrative and agenda of topics served by dominant centers in the Third Polish Republic. Somewhat based on a hunch, which some candidates in the internal elections in Platforma mentioned: break with the fear of what one or another chief editor and publicist will say about us, and focus on rising prices and other growing issues in provincial Poland. However, changing strategy requires courage and consistency, which is lacking in both Borys Budka's entourage (especially the Civic Coalition candidate in the presidential election) and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz's (though there are some early signs here), and other leaders. Even Hołownia, who is looking from the outside (at least in theory), is easily drawn into the narrative about the need to reverse judicial reforms and Poland as a 'Frankenstein' of the Western world. This is a completely ineffective approach, pigeonholing the former presenter into the 'defense of the status quo' bubble.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/484582-chwedoruk-szokuje-zakowskiego-jak-zaskoczyc-polityke -- BEWARE OF DEFENDERS - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GW: “Bad governments and bad people seeking power can be recognized by the fact that they are always defending us from something or promising to defend us. They point to the bad guys and attack them. They focus on who bad person they will destroy, not on what good they will create. Beware of defenders! Appreciate honest people.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25646307,po-czym-poznac-zla-wladze-czyli-strzezcie-sie-obroncow.html -- OUT OF REVENGE, PIS WILL TORMENT WITH CONTROLS - Fakt on Banaś's front page. https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/szef-nik-marian-banas-zemsci-sie-na-pis/d7cwm66 -- JOANNA ĆWIEK ON WHAT SOLIDARNOŚĆ GAINS BY RISKING BEING A SATELLITE OF PIS - she writes in RZ: “The trade unionists are determined and ready to pay for it with their position. Because although during the meeting with the President, Piotr Duda emphasized that 'S' is an independent and self-governing union, one cannot escape the impression that over the last five years it has become an increasingly larger satellite of PiS. – We don't care anymore. Unions have always had to make arrangements with parties, otherwise they won't achieve anything. For us, the interests of our members are most important, not the entire labor market – says an activist. And 'S' is willing to pay even with its face.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/301299880-Joanna-Cwiek-Sojusz-Dudy-z-Duda.html -- EDWIN BENDYK ON THE REPORT INDICATING A DECLINE IN SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRACY: “For domestic readers, the report's finding that the level of dissatisfaction with democracy in Poland has decreased by as much as 20 percentage points to 25% will likely be surprising. The largest drop occurred between 2000–10, followed by a smaller but significant one after 2015. The authors preempt suspicious questions, explaining that satisfaction with democracy does not necessarily go hand in hand with recognition of liberal democratic values. In other words, the strength of populist rule stems precisely from a high degree of satisfaction, or a low level of dissatisfaction.” -- THE FALL OF LEHMAN BROTHERS, REFUGEES - BENDYK ON TURNING POINTS IN THE DEMOCRACY CRISIS: “An analysis of changes in the level of satisfaction with democracy over time clearly shows correlations between drops and crisis situations. The collapse of Lehman Brothers bank and the start of the financial crisis in 2008, the refugee crisis in the European Union in 2015 – these are important turning points. But where does this almost universal crisis come from? The report's authors emphasize that a systematic erosion of trust in democratic institutions worldwide is a crucial factor influencing the results, including in mature democracies like the United States and Great Britain. These institutions are increasingly failing to fulfill their tasks, and this deteriorating quality is revealed precisely in crisis situations.” -- BENDYK ASKS IF A NEW FORCE WILL EMERGE: “For us in Poland, the question of when the supporters of the current ruling formation will lose trust in them is particularly interesting, because then their good mood will likely quickly dissipate. What will happen then? Will there be a change and the opposition will take power? Or will we face the destruction of the political scene and the emergence of a new force, as happened in 2017 in France and last year in Ukraine, and which Szymon Hołownia is currently trying to initiate in Poland?” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1940402,1,demokracja-jest-w-kryzysie-ale-polacy-sa-zadowoleni.read -- BORYS BUDKA'S WIFE ON HER HUSBAND'S SIMILARITIES TO TUSK - she tells Fakt: “– They both really like and respect people. Years ago, I had the opportunity to work on organizing Donald Tusk's visits, and I remember how he would go to places where he had few supporters. After most of those meetings, he gained their sympathy and trust. Borys has similar qualities. I travel with him sometimes and I see that he is received very well, he is not afraid to answer difficult questions. People appreciate that.” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/kim-jest-zona-borysa-budki-wywiad-z-katarzyna-kuczynska-budka/wcec14t -- WORKLOAD LIKE IN STALINIST RUSSIA - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN TP: “At first glance, that experiment seems distant to us. Where is the Soviet Union, and where are we, the proud inhabitants of a rapidly developing country on the Vistula River (we like to think of ourselves that way, don't we?). But are we really that different? Aren't modern capitalist economies, in many respects, heading towards their own perpetual motion? Only, of course, never decreed? Let's look at the data. Eurostat periodically checks, among other things, how many residents of developed countries work on weekends. In Poland, this percentage (2018) is about 50% for Saturdays. And almost 30% for Sundays. Those who work every weekend in Poland are about 15%. Interestingly, in the West, it's even worse in this regard than here. Across the entire EU, weekend work is a normal phenomenon for about 25% of employees.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/gdzie-sie-podzialy-tamte-weekendy-161891 -- POLITICAL MORNING LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/01/30/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Maria Zajączkowska, Anna Skowrońska-Łuczyńska, Maciej Samcik.

Łukasz Mężyk