NEWS
03/04/2025
15:52
Glapiński on inflation in the coming quarters:
It will be significantly lower than one might have expected.
– This high inflation today [...] is mainly a result of regulatory and fiscal factors. This inflation does not stem from market factors, nor from the actions of the National Bank of Poland or other banks; it is a regulatory-fiscal action, an action of the government, the state administration, and central offices that regulate various prices, electricity, gas, etc. – said Adam Glapiński at a press conference.
– The dynamics of food prices, incidentally, remain at a high level, but please remember that the VAT rate increased last year. […] Inflation is also pushed up by administered prices for cold water supply and sewage services […] the effects of raising excise duty on cigarettes and tobacco […]. With this basket, with this data from the Central Statistical Office, there isn't 5.4% inflation […] but 4.9% – he continued.
– New CSO data also changed the core inflation, which is even more important to me. It can be assessed that in the first quarter, core inflation decreased to near the upper limit of the NBP's target deviation, i.e., 3.5%. And such a level of core inflation […] it was 4.1%, now it is 3.5% – he went on to say.
– The inclusion of this new data […] along with lower global crude oil prices […] also leads to a revision of the projected inflation path for the coming quarters. […] We were supposed to have 4.8% at the end of the year […] currently, according to calculations […] it comes out to 4.2%, a significant difference. […] It will remain elevated all the time because the target is 2.5% +/- 1%, but it will be significantly lower than one might have expected, considering the earlier CSO data – he added.
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