Today's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: CBOS: Government Performance Ratings Decline Further, Onet: Nawrocki Reaches All-Time Trust Record, Trzaskowski Suffers a Crash

Łukasz Mężyk

-- NEW CBOS SURVEY:

-- GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE RATING: GOOD: 33% (-2) (down 7 since April), BAD 51% (+3) (up 7 since April).

-- TUSK GOVERNMENT'S LOWEST POINT: 31% GOOD – July 2025, 59% BAD – June 2025.

MORAWIECKI GOVERNMENT IN NOVEMBER 2023: GOOD 40%, BAD 51%.

-- GOVERNMENT SUPPORTERS: 32% (-1) (down 3 since April).

CURRENT TUSK GOVERNMENT'S LOWEST POINT: 29% – September 2025.

MORAWIECKI GOVERNMENT AFTER ELECTION LOSS – November 2023: 32%.

-- GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS: 42% (unchanged) (up 3 since April).

CURRENT TUSK GOVERNMENT'S LOWEST POINT: 48% OPPONENTS – July 2025.

MORAWIECKI GOVERNMENT IN NOVEMBER 2023: 44%.

-- PRIME MINISTER SATISFACTION – CBOS: 35% unchanged, (down 2 since April), MORAWIECKI: 36% in November 2024. TUSK'S LOWEST – 31% in July 2025.

-- PRIME MINISTER DISSATISFACTION: 54% (+2) (up 5 since April), MORAWIECKI: 53% in November 2023. TUSK'S LOWEST: 59% DISSATISFIED WITH PRIME MINISTER – 59% in July 2025.

-- THE GOVERNMENT IS THIS CLOSE TO ITS LOWEST SUPPORT LEVELS THIS TERM:

GOVERNMENT SUPPORTERS: 3 percentage points.
GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS: 6 percentage points.
GOVERNMENT PERFORMANCE RATING: 2 percentage points.
PRIME MINISTER SATISFACTION: 4 percentage points.
PRIME MINISTER DISSATISFACTION: 5 percentage points.
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=7225

-- CBOS CHECKED AUTHORITIES' RATINGS BEFORE THE DR. KACPRZYK SCANDAL AT WARSAW'S SOUTHERN HOSPITAL REALLY KICKED OFF – AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his cabinet's ratings are declining, slightly but for the third time in a row. CBOS checked the authorities' ratings before the Dr. Kacprzyk scandal at Warsaw's Southern Hospital really kicked off.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32878471,cbos-sprawdzil-poparcie-dla-rzadu-nieznaczny-spadek-gabinetu.html

-- NAWROCKI WITH A TRUST RECORD, TRZASKOWSKI SUFFERS A CRASH – ONET: “The latest trust poll by IBRiS for Onet brings very serious changes. President Karol Nawrocki notes a huge increase in trust, achieving the highest result in history. Grzegorz Braun also shows a significant increase in positive responses, rising from his long-held last place. Meanwhile, Warsaw's Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski is experiencing a crash in his ratings.”

-- IN THE NEW IBRIS POLL COMMISSIONED BY ONET, THE PRESIDENT HAS 54.8% POSITIVE INDICATIONS ("DEFINITELY TRUST" - 23.8%, "RATHER TRUST" - 31%). THIS IS 8.4 P.P. MORE THAN A MONTH AGO. 39.3% of respondents have a negative opinion of the president ("definitely do not trust" 30.5%, "rather do not trust" 8.8%).

-- THIS MEANS KAROL NAWROCKI BEATS THE ALL-TIME RECORD BY 0.4 P.P., previously held by Szymon Hołownia. The then-Marshal of the Sejm, at his peak popularity in January 2024, was trusted by 54.4% of people. The President is also regaining a unique advantage: he has significantly more positive than negative indications.”

-- WARSAW MAYOR RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IS EXPERIENCING A REAL RATING CRASH – CONTINUES ONET: “which may be related to the scandal at the Southern Hospital. It should be noted that the survey was conducted after the first reports of irregularities at the capital's facility. The Vice-Chairman of Civic Coalition is experiencing the largest drop among all politicians in the poll, as much as 5.6 percentage points. Currently, less than a third, only 32.5% of Poles, trust him.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/sondaz-zaufania-karol-nawrocki-z-rekordem-rafal-trzaskowski-zalicza-krach/8pzs9vy,79cfc278

-- VIP LOUNGE FOR KACPRZYK – A SONG BY JAS KAPELA:
https://x.com/JasKapela/status/2070181081765101761?s=20

-- THE SCALE OF INCOMPETENCE OF THE CIVIC COALITION AND THE ENTIRE GOVERNMENT IN HEALTHCARE IS UNPRECEDENTED – JACEK GĄDEK: “The scale of incompetence of the Civic Coalition and the entire government in healthcare is unprecedented. Two ministers. The first one, a last-minute replacement – allegedly wanted to do something but couldn't. The second – Prime Minister Donald Tusk's personal idea – doesn't exist. The government has delivered nothing from the "KO specifics" in healthcare (KO itself admits this on its website). A hole in the National Health Fund, cancelled appointments. And in Warsaw, in a super-modern hospital, a party loyalist without specialization earned PLN 1.5 million a year, a VIP lounge was created (Warsaw authorities admitted this in a statement). Healthcare has for years – according to voters' declarations – been the most important issue for the authorities. And it's the last one. Those with money or connections have a chance for express treatment. Those who don't have it have a chance to fall silent in a cemetery.”
https://x.com/JacekGadek/status/2070220781053698490?s=20

-- MYSTERIOUS TENDER, OVERPRICED CONTRACT FOR DELOITTE, AND A SECRET PROTOCOL. ANOTHER SCANDAL AT THE SOUTHERN HOSPITAL – JUDYTA WATOŁA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Warsaw's Southern Hospital paid PLN 725,000 to prepare an application for funding from the National Reconstruction Plan. Other hospitals paid PLN 25,000-35,000. The inspection protocol was classified because its "disclosure would threaten essential interests." And why did he decide to pay 725,000 PLN for the application, when other hospitals paid 25,000? – From the hospital's perspective, it was crucial to prepare the documentation effectively and obtain funds for oncology development. This goal was achieved. Furthermore, the procurement department always conducted proceedings independently. I really had a lot on my plate and did not interfere with their work. This applied to all orders. It's a large hospital in development and many different matters – explains Artur Krawczyk.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32878806,tajemniczy-przetarg-i-tajny-protokol-kolejna-afera-w-szpitalu.html

-- DOCTORS ARE ASTOUNDED BY REPORTS THAT A DEAD PATIENT MAY HAVE BEEN SCANNED WITH A TOMOGRAPH AT THE SOUTHERN HOSPITAL. – “WE HAVE NEVER ENCOUNTERED ANYTHING LIKE THIS,” THEY TELL INTERIA.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-bulwersujace-watki-ws-szpitala-poludniowego-lekarze-przecier,nId,23505168

-- PRESIDENT TRZASKOWSKI PROMISED PROTECTION. THE WHISTLEBLOWER WAS FIRED – PATRYK SŁOWIK AND JAKUB STYCZYŃSKI ON PORTAL ZERO: “A whistleblower from the Warsaw Road Management (ZDM) was fired from their job, even though Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski had assured them protection in writing. One of the reasons cited was the loss of trust resulting from filing a complaint against ZDM authorities to Trzaskowski. The mayor's associates shared the whistleblower's accusations with those against whom the complaint was filed.”
https://zero.pl/news/warszawski-sygnalista-z-zarzadu-drog-miejskich-zwolniony-rafal-trzaskowski-obiecal-ochrone

-- MERZ WANTS WITHOUT POLAND: “Friedrich Merz believes that it is better to talk to the Russians, Ukrainians, and the USA without Poland and Italy, report journalists from the German newspaper 'Der Spiegel'. According to the Chancellor, Germany, France, and Great Britain should negotiate the terms of future peace on behalf of Europe, because the participation of the other two countries in the E5 format 'could complicate everything.'
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/zagranica/news-bez-polski-i-wloch-podczas-negocjacji-pokojowych-mieli-prete,nId,23505244

-- THE END OF COLA FOR LESS THAN PLN 10. THE GOVERNMENT IS PREPARING TO HIT POCKETS – JUSTYNA WĘCEK, HEAD OF THE MONEY SECTION AT FAKT: “For carbonated cola drinks of 1.5-liter capacity (such as Coca-Cola or Pepsi), the change in sugar tax rates will be particularly painful. A bottle may increase in price on the shelf by approximately PLN 1.35. Currently: the regular price outside of promotions is from PLN 7.00 to PLN 9.50 (in multi-buy promotions: PLN 5.00–7.50). It will be: the standard price may increase to the range of PLN 8.35 to even PLN 10.85 per bottle!”
https://www.fakt.pl/pieniadze/ceny-coli-i-energetykow-w-gore-to-oplata-cukrowa-resort-finansow-ujawnia-plany/pfp2mc5

-- STILL MINERAL AND SPRING WATER IN POLAND IS SUBJECT TO THE BASIC, 23% VAT RATE, WHILE SOME SWEETENED BEVERAGES, INCLUDING FLAVORED WATERS AND SOME DRINKS WITH ADDED JUICE, HAVE BENEFITED OR ARE BENEFITING FROM PREFERENTIAL RATES – INTERIA: “As noted by portalspożywczy.pl, representatives of Nałęczów Zdrój state that reduced VAT rates should be exceptional and primarily apply to essential goods. In their opinion, current solutions violate fair competition and may constitute prohibited state aid for selected companies. Robert Gwiazdowski, quoted by Wyborcza.biz, asks how the state explains preferences for drinks sweetened with concentrated juice over unsweetened water. Robert Gwiazdowski assesses that a situation where the state provides fiscal preferences to one category of beverages at the expense of another may be contrary to EU law.”
https://biznes.interia.pl/gospodarka/news-znany-producent-wod-mineralnych-pozywa-polskie-panstwo-poszl,nId,23505270

-- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Przydacz, Nelli Rokita, Piotr Adamowicz, Krzysztof Ziemiec, Paweł Wojtunik, Krzysztof Łapiński, Mieczysław Baszko, Aleksandra Klimont.
 


Łukasz Mężyk