state of play: 05/30/2026
-- ONE YEAR AGO, THE LAST POLLS BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF ELECTIONS WERE PUBLISHED:
OGB for WP: Nawrocki leads by 1.2 points.
IBRiS for Polsat: Trzaskowski leads by 1 point.
Onet forecast: Trzaskowski leads by 0.2 points.
Ipsos/TVP: Trzaskowski leads by 1 point.
CBOS forecast: Trzaskowski leads by 0.6 points.
Opinia24/TVN24: Trzaskowski leads by 1.1 points.
Pollster/SE: Trzaskowski leads by 2.4 points.
Ipsos/Oko: Trzaskowski leads by 1 point.
IBRiS/Onet: Trzaskowski leads by 1.7 points.
Opinia24/RadioZet: Trzaskowski leads by 3 points.
https://300polityka.pl/pl/stan-gry/2025-05-30/stan-gry-trzaskowski-na-czele-wiekszosci-sondazy-ale-analitycy-cbos-pewnosc-wskazania-zwyciezcy-jest-stosunkowo-niska
-- PiS ACTIVISTS ARE MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE CZARNKOWSKI VS. MORAWIECKI FIGHT, AND WHO FORTUNE FAVORS; THEY ARE INFATUATED WITH MORAWIECKI. BUT IS ANYONE INFATUATED WITH CZARNKOWSKI? - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Moreover, the group of the former prime minister’s opponents has one fundamental weakness: it lacks a clear leader. Therefore, among the ‘scouts,’ the conviction is growing that Morawiecki might indeed take over the entire PiS. His people believe that their leader’s stubbornness, coupled with Kaczyński’s increasingly visible fatigue and weakening, will lead more and more people to focus on the former prime minister. They are good organizers, young, energetic, inventive – and infatuated with Morawiecki. But is anyone infatuated with Czarnkowski?”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,32816712,wielowieyska-morawiecki-juz-kompletnie-lekcewazy-polecenia.html
-- LESZEK MILLER: If there were presidential elections next week and we had today’s situation, I would naturally vote for Nawrocki.
https://x.com/OficjalneZero/status/2060410990093562263?s=20
-- ZELENSKY IS HARMING POLISH-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS AND IS BEHAVING UNFAIRLY TOWARDS ONE OF UKRAINE'S CLOSEST ALLIES BY GLORIFYING THE PERPETRATORS OF GENOCIDE FROM THE UPA - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ.
-- ZELENSKY ALLOWS KAROL NAWROCKI TO TAKE ON THE ROLE OF LEADER OF THE NEW, ALREADY SLIGHTLY POST-PIS RIGHT – BARTKIEWICZ FURTHER IN RZ: “Nawrocki decided to use the opportunity created for him by Zelensky’s decision, which is insulting to Poles, and demonstrate that – although he was a candidate supported by PiS – he actually belongs to the new wave of right-wing politicians.”
-- NAWROCKI SHOWED THAT HE CAREFULLY LISTENS TO THE VOICE COMING FROM THOSE WHO SEE LIFE ON THE RIGHT BEYOND PiS – BARTKIEWICZ FURTHER IN RZ: “To such voters, who are at least skeptical of the PiS government’s Eastern policy, Karol Nawrocki has just shown that he understands their emotions and shares them. It is symbolic that he wants to revoke the order that was bestowed upon Zelensky by his predecessor, Andrzej Duda, who, unlike Nawrocki, was truly a PiS president. Nawrocki is using the whole affair to show that he is the president of the entire right wing. He already demonstrated his autonomy from Jarosław Kaczyński by appointing a new First President of the Supreme Court, against the PiS leader’s wishes. Now, by responding so unequivocally to the appeal of the Confederation club leader, he has shown that he carefully listens to the voice coming from those who see life on the right beyond PiS.”
-- NAWROCKI IS GAINING CREDIBILITY WITH CONFEDERATION VOTERS TO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN 2027 – CLAIMS BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “If Nawrocki were perceived as a president awaiting orders from the central headquarters at Nowogrodzka Street, he would be a hardly credible mediator for potential PiS coalition partners in coalition negotiations. However, if in the eyes of Confederation politicians, and especially the voters of these parties, he is someone who rises above party logic, and at times is simply their president, then his role in the coalition-forming process could be decisive.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44508311-artur-bartkiewicz-jak-karol-nawrocki-skorzystal-na-decyzji-wolodymyra-zelenskiego-ws-bohaterow-upa
-- THE PRESIDENT VERY ACCURATELY READ THE SOCIAL MOOD – ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI FROM OGB QUOTED IN RZ: “– Our research shows that animosity towards Ukraine and its president now extends beyond the electorates of Grzegorz Braun or the Confederation. What's more, I am convinced that if a poll were conducted today asking whether one is in favor of revoking the Order of the White Eagle from Zelensky, the majority of respondents would say yes – assesses Łukasz Pawłowski. In his opinion, Karol Nawrocki has thus very accurately read the social mood. And what’s more, he has put Donald Tusk in a difficult position. – According to the Constitution, revoking the Order of the White Eagle requires the prime minister’s counter-signature. As a result, Nawrocki will be able to play on anti-Ukrainian sentiments for longer. And ultimately, the revocation of the order will not happen anyway – assesses Łukasz Pawłowski.”
https://www.rp.pl/dyplomacja/art44502431-karol-nawrocki-nie-odbierze-orderu-wolodymyrowi-zelenskiemu-wymagana-jest-zgoda-donalda-tuska
-- ZELENSKY IS DEPRIVING POLAND OF ILLUSIONS – JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI IN RZ: “I don’t even know what to appeal for. Hopes for reflection from the highest authorities in Kyiv are disappearing. (...) In this way, the comforting myth for some has collapsed – that love for the UPA, the glorification of criminal Ukrainian nationalism, is a political niche in Ukraine. Extremely nationalist parties are not needed at all, since the President of Ukraine sets the UPA as an example. In this way, the comforting myth for some has collapsed – that love for the UPA, the glorification of criminal Ukrainian nationalism, is a political niche in Ukraine. Extremely nationalist parties are not needed at all, since the President of Ukraine sets the UPA as an example.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44498271-jerzy-haszczynski-bohaterowie-upa-wolodymyr-zelenski-pozbawia-polske-zludzen
-- ZELENSKY, IN AN INCOMPREHENSIBLE WAY, ALMOST STEPPED ON A LANDMINE IN POLISH-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS – JAGIENKA WILCZAK ON THE TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “It was obvious that an international scandal would erupt. For completely incomprehensible reasons, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, named the elite unit – the Separate Center for Special Operations ‘North’ – after the Heroes of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. This is almost like stepping on a landmine in Polish-Ukrainian relations. And this at a time when it seemed that we were emerging from a great trauma that had divided and separated our nations for decades. When – thanks to the efforts of the Polish side and the understanding of the Ukrainian side – the exhumations of Poles brutally murdered in Volhynia by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army had just begun.”
-- UKRAINE MUST CONFRONT THIS ISSUE IF IT WANTS TO BELONG TO THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY – JAGIENKA WILCZAK FURTHER: “He should have learned that much. Ukraine must confront this issue if it wants to belong to the European community. Especially since Russian war propaganda speaks of the need to liberate it from fascism.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2345087,1,burza-o-bohaterow-upa-zelenski-nadepnal-na-mine-trzeba-zadbac-o-polska-racje-stanu.read?src=mt
-- IT IS, HOWEVER, AN OUTSTANDING FEAT: TO LOSE POWER IN AN IMPORTANT CITY IN A HUMILIATING WAY A YEAR BEFORE THE ELECTIONS – ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONE: “If we look at the elections coolly, KO is failing across the board. In 2023, they lost to PiS, and they rule mainly thanks to the good results of their current coalition partners. The local government elections in 2024 nationwide were won by PiS, and in the European elections, it was a draw with a slight advantage for KO. The Krakow campaign again showed that KO simply cannot cope in the dirty electoral game. And yet, this was just a training ground before next year’s elections.”
-- THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THEMSELVES ARE A CONCERT OF KO'S ELECTORAL IMPOTENCE. THE PARTY FAILED TO ORGANIZE A COMPETENT CAMPAIGN TEAM AND AN EFFICIENT CAMPAIGN FOR A CANDIDATE WHO WAS A SURE FAVORITE – STANKIEWICZ FURTHER: “The presidential elections themselves are a concert of KO’s electoral impotence. The party failed to organize a competent campaign team and an efficient campaign for a candidate who was a sure favorite. It was clearly visible that Rafał Trzaskowski – apart from his political missteps – became the target of a coordinated bot attack. When it became clear that he was sinking, a group of campaign experts emotionally connected to KO offered their help. Just as Miszalski did in Krakow today, Trzaskowski refused a year ago. And Tusk agreed to this, which in both cases ended in a catastrophe whose consequences are unimaginably costly for the current government.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/stankiewicz-w-usuniecie-miszalskiego-zaangazowane-byly-duze-pieniadze/xk2mv5q,452ad802
-- THOSE WHO WERE HELD UP AS EXAMPLES OF "FAVORS" IN THE REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN CAN SLEEP PEACEFULLY AFTER MISZALSKI’S RECALL – ANNA KOLET IN GW: “What will happen in the offices, municipal companies, and units in the autumn will largely depend on who wins the elections. If it is someone from the same side of the political scene as Miszalski, then indeed the vast majority of employees have nothing to fear. However, if someone else wins the elections, the situation will not be so clear.”
-- FIXED COMPETITIONS AT EVERY LEVEL OF POSITIONS – KOLET FURTHER IN GW: “One of the residents shared his personal story with us: – I had a personal motivation to come here and vote for the recall of this authority – he stated. – This can be called cronyism. I participated in the recruitment for a vacant position in the office, I lost, but after analyzing the results of the recruitment, I found out that the position I applied for already had someone else assigned to it.”
-- COALITION PARTNERS FROM KO AND PSL ARE EVEN IN SANEPID – KOLET FURTHER IN GW: “Similar to the position of Sanepid director, which went to former PO councilor Andrzej Hawranek. Hawranek lost the competition for this position, but the Voivode Krzysztof Klęczar from PSL, who had the final decision, insisted and pushed him into this role. He did this against the stance of the Chief Sanitary Inspector Paweł Grzesiowski. Immediately after, Hawranek hired PSL politician Marek Gajowy as his deputy, who had previously been a councilor in Spytkowice, among other positions. Simultaneously with Hawranek, Krzysztof Marcinkiewicz, a PO activist, also took a position as deputy director at Sanepid.”
https://krakow.wyborcza.pl/krakow/7,44425,32816325,kolesie-zatopili-miszalskiego-nie-mialem-zadnego-wplywu.html
-- FAKT ON THE PRIME MINISTER’S CLOSEST COLLEAGUES: “According to the register of government flights, Tusk often takes Ostachowicz on board state-owned planes for official trips. He has been working with the 'manager' since at least 2007. When Tusk left his prime ministerial post 12 years ago, Ostachowicz joined the management board of PKN Orlen, which caused a political outcry. Two days after his appointment, he resigned from the lucrative position and moved to the private sector (as an advisor at Deloitte).”
https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/najblizszy-krag-donalda-tuska-na-liscie-jest-tylko-kilka-nazwisk/2lm0v4v
-- NEW MINISTRY OF EDUCATION PRIORITIES. THEY SMELL OF AN ACCOUNTANT, NOT A PEDAGOGUE. WHAT ABOUT THE NEEDS OF CHILDREN? – DARIUSZ CHĘTKOWSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The directions of state educational policy for 2026/2027 are permeated with the spirit of an administrator, even an accountant, not a pedagogue. Although there is nothing wrong with evaluating children and based on this taking actions to improve safety, ensure coherence in providing psychological-pedagogical assistance, addiction prevention, etc. Care is evident here to avoid duplicating efforts by various entities, which will reduce education costs.”
-- NOWACKA MINDLESSLY SPOILED IT – CHĘTKOWSKI FURTHER IN POLITYKA: “Although the official language does not sound like an apology for Barbara Nowacka calling parents a nightmare for schools, it should be treated as such. Teachers will be repairing relationships with parents, which the minister mindlessly spoiled. There are too many nightmares in schools to create new ones. In the face of reform, we should be gaining friends rather than creating new enemies.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/spoleczenstwo/2345099,1,nowe-priorytety-men-bije-od-nich-duch-ksiegowego-a-nie-pedagoga-co-z-potrzebami-dzieci.read
-- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Czaputowicz, Barbara Zdrojewska, Jerzy Budnik. SUNDAY: Renata Butryn.
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