state of play: 05/26/2026
-- A YEAR AGO, 5 DAYS BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF OGB ELECTIONS INDICATED NAWROCKI, IBRIS - TRZASKOWSKI:
-- OGB SURVEY:
TRZASKOWSKI 45.5
NAWROCKI 48
UNDECIDED: 6.5
https://x.com/OGB_Pro/status/1926885594690416645
-- IBRIS FOR PR24:
TRZASKOWSKI 45.7
NAWROCKI 44.9
UNDECIDED: 9.4
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/nowy-sondaz-prezydencki-na-ostatniej-prostej-kandydaci-ida-leb-w-leb/vkghm00,79cfc278
-- PRESIDENT KAROL NAWROCKI HAS STRENGTHENED IN THE MAY CBOS SURVEY: "46% of respondents rate the activity of President Karol Nawrocki positively (an increase of 1 percentage point), and negatively - 42% (a decrease of 2 percentage points). Compared to last month, the balance of opinions has not fundamentally changed – similar to April, opinions on the head of state's activity remain highly divided, with the lead of positive over negative opinions increasing to 4 percentage points."
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=7207
-- BOGDAN RYMANOWSKI IS THE BEST-PERFORMING JOURNALIST IN TERMS OF SOCIAL TRUST - CBOS SURVEY: "Bogdan Rymanowski is the best-performing journalist in terms of social trust. Out of fourteen journalists we also asked about in September 2024, the social perception of five of them has changed significantly, with Bogdan Rymanowski being the only one to currently achieve a significantly higher average on the trust-distrust scale (an increase in average from +1.09 to +1.43), while the others recorded significant declines."
https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=19/2026
-- A CLEVER TRICK LIKE TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN LAST YEAR - KO'S COMMUNICATION LINE TODAY: PIS WILL FIELD CZARNEK IN KRAKOW - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-05-26
-- AFTER KO'S CATASTROPHE IN KRAKOW, REFERENDUMS ARE MULTIPLYING LIKE RABBITS. NOW RZESZÓW? - WOJCIECH KOŚĆ IN OKO.PRESS: "Following the success of the right-wing (and partly the opposition left-wing) in Krakow, it didn't take long for the announcement of another referendum to recall the mayor of a large city connected to the ruling coalition. This time, Rzeszów is in the spotlight."
https://oko.press/na-zywo/na-zywo-relacja/po-katastrofie-ko-w-krakowie-referenda-mnoza-sie-jak-kroliki-teraz-rzeszow
-- REFERENDUM IN KRAKOW. KO WAS ASLEEP. IT HAS A PROBLEM NOT JUST IN THIS CITY - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: "PiS hopes that the referendum in Krakow will be the first domino to fall, while the KO's defeat in the parliamentary elections next year will be the last. It doesn't have to be this way. Which doesn't mean the outcome of the referendum organized in Krakow is insignificant. Because KO has a problem. The systemic problems of the party are concentrated in the Krakow lens."
-- UNTIL NOW, KO WON IN LARGE CITIES BECAUSE IT WAS THE ONLY OPTION FOR A LARGER GROUP OF VOTERS. BUT IT'S NO LONGER ENOUGH TO JUST BE ITSELF - FLIEGER FURTHER IN RZ: "It's possible that the repeat elections in Krakow will again be won by a KO candidate. But the game has changed. Until now, KO won in large cities because it was the only option for a larger group of voters. But it's no longer enough to just be itself. It needs to offer something."
-- KO'S WEAKNESS IS NON-METROPOLITAN POLAND. NOW IT TURNS OUT THAT THE PARTY IS SURPRISED BY THE NEEDS AND ASPIRATIONS OF BIG CITY RESIDENTS - FLIEGER YET AGAIN IN RZ: "KO's weakness is non-metropolitan Poland. Now it turns out that the party is surprised by the needs and aspirations of big city residents. Neither PiS needs to understand them better, nor do the dominoes have to fall immediately. But Krakow sends a lesson, above all, about where real change can occur."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44447661-estera-flieger-referendum-w-krakowie-ko-zaspala-ma-problem-nie-tylko-w-tym-miescie
-- IN ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI'S OPINION, A REFERENDUM COULD SUCCESSFULLY TAKE PLACE IN RZESZÓW, LUBLIN, KIELCE, GLIWICE, OR BIAŁYSTOK - IN ANNA KOŁEC'S ARTICLE IN GW: "In Krakow, the right-wing party also never seized power, but – as Pawłowski points out – there is Łukasz Gibała here, who lost to Miszalski by a hair's breadth in 2024 and will now be the favorite in the upcoming elections. According to Łukasz Pawłowski, a referendum could successfully take place in Rzeszów, Lublin, Kielce, Gliwice, or Białystok. - These are cities with a low threshold, where after a referendum, someone from the conservative camp or local political environment could win - emphasizes Łukasz Pawłowski."
https://krakow.wyborcza.pl/krakow/7,44425,32812015,prawicy-nie-wystarczy-odwolanie-miszalskiego-ida-po-wiecej.html
-- KO IS TRYING TO MINIMIZE THE SCALE OF THE DEFEAT, PIS FORECASTS THE END OF THE POWER STRUCTURE - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA AND IWONA SZPALA IN GW: "- Tusk's position is that if you create trouble for yourself, you have to endure it, withstand criticism, and come out of it - says a politician close to the prime minister. And he predicts that the party's leadership will now enter the game, as there is no other scenario. - Krakow will have to return to the national level, Tusk will certainly get involved, because the losses for the coalition are too great - says a politician from Civic Coalition."
-- IN WARSAW, THEY ARE ALREADY PRESSURING TRZASKOWSKI NOT TO EXPAND CLEAN AIR ZONES AND TO SLOW DOWN PAID PARKING ZONES, OTHERWISE THEY WILL START A KRAKOW HERE FOR HIM - SAYS A WARSAW KO POLITICIAN - IN KONDZIŃSKA AND SZPALA'S ARTICLE IN GW: "Krakow is the first city above half a million inhabitants where a referendum was successful after 2010. In KO, some fear the Krakow effect for politics in other cities. - In Warsaw, they are already pressuring Rafał Trzaskowski not to expand clean air zones and to slow down paid parking zones, because they will start a Krakow here for him - says a Warsaw KO politician."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32811498,krajobraz-po-referendum-ko-probuje-obnizyc-skale-porazki-pis.html
-- THE PRESIDENT OF KRAKOW WAS RECALLED BY RESIDENTS OF DISTRICTS OUTSIDE THE CITY CENTER. THE RIGHT-WING VOTERS DECIDED - BARTŁOMIEJ KURAŚ IN GW: "Such electoral preferences of people voting for the recall of the Civic Coalition mayor largely overlap with the results of the last elections in Krakow. Both national and local elections, in which PiS and Confederation candidates achieved better results in districts outside the city center. The Old Town, Krowodrza, and Grzegórzki more often choose Civic Coalition candidates."
-- THE RIGHT-WING ELECTORATE REMAINS MOBILIZED. AND THIS SHOULD GIVE THE CIVIC COALITION SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT - KURAŚ FURTHER IN GW: "A turnout of around 30 percent, with a boycott of the referendum by supporters of Aleksander Miszalski, also shows that the right-wing electorate remains mobilized. And this should give the Civic Coalition, currently governing the country, something to think about. Calling for non-participation in the referendum to cause its invalidity due to low turnout turned out to be an action detrimental to the Civic Coalition president."
https://krakow.wyborcza.pl/krakow/7,44425,32810480,prezydenta-krakowa-odwolali-mieszkancy-dzielnic-spoza-centrum.html
-- KRAKOW KO POLITICIANS LONG DENIED REALITY - MONIKA WALUŚ IN ONE T: "Krakow KO politicians long denied reality, claiming that the referendum did not threaten President Aleksander Miszalski. Even after his recall, they admit that 'the result is not a surprise,' and local structures will now face a 'moment of reckoning.' However, admitting guilt may not be enough when Prime Minister Donald Tusk intervenes in settling party sins in Krakow."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetkrakow/kto-moze-byc-kandydatem-ko-na-prezydenta-krakowa-sa-konkretne-nazwiska/zr4gh1c,79cfc278
kowa-sa-konkretne-nazwiska/zr4gh1c,79cfc278
-- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Warlikowski (turns 64), Teresa Liszcz, Leon Kieres, Julia Pitera, Janusz Śniadek, Łukasz Schreiber.
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