state of play: 05/20/2026

STATE OF PLAY: Janicki: The Question of Whether Tusk Can Recreate a Festive Atmosphere After What Has Happened – and Especially What Hasn't – OGB: Miszalski's Approval Ratings Worse Than Revoked Mayor of Zabrze

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 60% OF KRAKOV RESIDENTS SEE THE NEED TO RECALL MISZALSKI, WHILE BEFORE THE SUCCESSFUL RECALL REFERENDUM IN ZABRZE, 14 PERCENTAGE POINTS FEWER THOUGHT SO ABOUT THE CITY'S MAYOR - OGB:
https://x.com/Stan360PL/status/2057013529576607802?s=20

-- STANOWSKI HAS INVITED VIEWERS TO 8:05 PM FOR A SPECIAL PREMIERE EPISODE OF "MAZUREK I STANOWSKI LIVE" ON TELEWIZJA ZERO:
https://zero.pl/news/telewizja-zero-wystartowala-gdzie-ogladac-zasieg-i-program-kanalu-stanowskiego

-- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ AFTER TALKS WITH AMERICANS: I WAS ASSURED - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-05-20/

 

-- ALTHOUGH TUSK'S GOVERNMENT FORMALLY HAS OVER A DOZEN MONTHS LEFT, IT FEELS LIKE THE FINISH LINE IS ALREADY IN SIGHT; THE EARLIEST CAMPAIGN LAUNCHED IN DECADES - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Although Donald Tusk's government formally has over a dozen months left, it feels like the finish line is already in sight. Everyone has been preparing for elections for a long time. This is probably the earliest campaign launched in decades.”

-- A POLL STANDOFF CONTINUES, WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY FALSE, BECAUSE ALL THREE RIGHT-WING ASSETS ARE ABOVE THE ELECTORAL THRESHOLD, WHILE TWO OUT OF THE FOUR GROUPS IN THE RULING COALITION ARE BELOW IT - FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “This is also because a poll standoff has been ongoing in Polish politics for months, which is essentially false, because all three right-wing assets are above the electoral threshold, while two out of the four groups in the ruling coalition are below it, so in terms of seats, the right-wing usually has an advantage. However, this psychological stalemate leads to the opinion that it must be maintained until the elections and decisive blows must be delivered during the campaign itself.”

-- THE CHAIRMAN OF THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY (PIS) CLEARLY HAS NOT YET DECIDED WHICH BUTTON TO ULTIMATELY PRESS - JANICKI CONTINUES: “The chairman of PiS has clearly not yet decided which button to ultimately press. If he doesn't go with the coarse, folk-religious nationalism that Przemysław Czarnek is to promote, he will probably return to Morawiecki's 'aspirational-developmental' approach. Finally, Zbigniew Bogucki might appear as a man of the president – the patron of the entire right-wing. Someone from the second tier might also emerge, like Nawrocki at the time. If Morawiecki is not to be PiS's candidate for prime minister, Kaczyński will likely take some of his people or cut them from the electoral lists, convinced that they would leave PiS anyway after entering the Sejm out of frustration.”

-- THE RIGHT-WING WANTS TO MAKE TUSK'S GOVERNMENT SEEM HELPLESS AND INEFFECTIVE. OVERALL, HOWEVER, IT IS A POLITICALLY RATIONAL AND DANGEROUS PLAN FOR THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION - CLAIMS JANICKI: “The president's vetoing of laws and the constant resistance of people from the PiS circle placed in the Constitutional Tribunal, the Supreme Court, the National Broadcasting Council (KRRiT), and other institutions are intended to make Tusk's government appear helpless and ineffective. Therefore, since Nawrocki cannot be replaced in the coming years, the government must be replaced for any significant changes in the state to become possible. In this game, the right-wing must be careful not to overdo it, so that this strategy doesn't become too obvious. Overall, however, it is a politically rational and dangerous plan for the current administration.”

-- TUSK IS PERHAPS MORE CONCERNED WITH STIRRING UP A FEELING OF DISLIKE TOWARDS THE EMBLEMATIC FIGURES OF THE PIS REGIME THAN WITH DEFENDING THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT - MARIUSZ JANICKI CONTINUES: “So, perhaps the goal is more to evoke a negative reaction towards the emblematic figures of the PiS regime than to defend the achievements of the current government. It is unknown whether this will be enough, just like drawing dichotomies such as 'PiS's East and Platform's West,' the threat of Polexit, a nationalist, clericalist museum, etc. It is impossible to assess how productive these emotions still are, or whether indifference will emerge, a desire to get back at Civic Coalition (KO) for unfulfilled promises on the principle of – let PiS govern then, at least they don't pretend and do what they say. Restoring the sense of struggle after the presidential catastrophe, countering the belief that 'nothing matters anymore,' will be decisive here.”

-- IF TUSK HAS DECIDED TO SOAR IN GRAND POLITICS, THEN KACZYŃSKI'S PEOPLE REMAIN MASTERS OF SMALL, EVERYDAY POLITICS, WHICH CAN DECIDE THE ELECTION OUTCOME - WRITES MARIUSZ JANICKI FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “But PiS, which lacks a good entry into international forums, has a lot of time for domestic affairs, is constantly present, and probes all issues: healthcare, electricity prices, larger or smaller KO scandals, to which there is no quick reaction from the government side. If Tusk has decided to soar in grand politics, then Kaczyński's people remain masters of small, everyday politics, which can decide the election outcome.”

-- THE QUESTION IS WHETHER TUSK WILL MANAGE TO RECREATE THAT FESTIVE ATMOSPHERE, AFTER WHAT HAS HAPPENED – AND ESPECIALLY WHAT HASN'T HAPPENED – DURING HIS YEARS IN POWER - MARIUSZ JANICKI AGAIN: “So the question is whether Tusk will manage to recreate that festive atmosphere, after what has happened – and especially what hasn't happened – during his years in power. It won't be easy, because subsequent election promises after the '100 Concrete Actions' from 2023 will not sound credible, settlements will no longer work as they have practically not taken place, and partner unions or easing abortion regulations as a second promise from Tusk also don't make much sense. Besides, it is evident that KO has decided to be a pro-European right-wing now and is looking for a program that would fit this profile.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2343505,1,ko-kontra-pis-zacieta-prekampania-szykuje-sie-meczaca-walka-na-punkty-i-bledy-przeciwnika.read

-- WE ARE FACING THE BIGGEST CRISIS IN AGRICULTURE IN YEARS - ALEKSANDRA BILEWICZ IN GW: “The situation of farms is the most difficult in years, and everything indicates that many of them will not survive the crisis. (...) It seems that further subsidies and compensations for farmers or intervention purchases will not be a sufficient prescription for the crisis in agriculture. Deeper, more systemic actions are needed to help overcome the hitherto dominant way of thinking about agriculture, according to which one should move towards increasing farm sizes, their specialization, and mechanization.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32798379,mamy-najwiekszy-kryzys-w-rolnictwie-od-lat-co-zrobic-aby-nie.html

-- THE COST OF THE EU SAFE LOAN MAY TURN OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN THE POLISH GOVERNMENT PREVIOUSLY ASSUMED. NEW CALCULATIONS BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION INDICATE AN INCREASE IN INTEREST RATES TO 3.32% FROM THE ORIGINAL 3.17% - MONEY:
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/koszty-programu-safe-rosna-sa-nowe-wyliczenia-brukseli-7287819265108064a.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Aleksander Hall, Marzena Okła-Drewnowicz, Magdalena Sobkowiak. 
 


Łukasz Mężyk