state of play: 05/07/2026

Zero: Tusk and Nawrocki with Different Visions: More USA vs. More Europe, Karnowski: Mentzen Might Speak Rudely, But I Prefer Him to Cynics, Wielowieyska: Not the Constitutional Tribunal nor Zonda Will Decide Election Results

Łukasz Mężyk

-- BIELAN: WITHOUT HOŁOWNIA'S PARTY, THERE IS NO MAJORITY, AND IT'S A QUESTION OF WHAT HOŁOWNIA WILL DO ABOUT IT. HE IS NO LONGER A LEADER IN THE FORMAL SENSE, BUT I THINK HE STILL HAS A VERY SIGNIFICANT SAY THERE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-05-07

-- NAWROCKI AND TUSK WITH DIFFERENT SECURITY VISIONS - ZERO PORTAL: “Karol Nawrocki declared that Poland is ready to host American soldiers if Donald Trump decides to limit their presence in Germany. Donald Tusk, on the other hand, is a proponent of strengthening the European defense system. The statements by Nawrocki and Tusk show differences in approach to the issue of US troops' presence in the region. On one hand, there is readiness to increase military presence in Poland, and on the other, an emphasis on maintaining European unity.”
https://zero.pl/news/polska-gotowa-na-wojska-usa-nawrocki-i-tusk-z-roznymi-wizjami-bezpieczenstwa

-- MENTZEN MIGHT SPEAK RUDELY, BUT I PREFER HIM TO CYNICS WHO, FOR THE SAKE OF PEACE, GIVE EVERYTHING TO THE GENERALS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Almost everyone, from left to right, from pro-government to anti-government experts, jumped to General Kukuła's defense. They are certainly right about Mentzen's words that the general is 'abnormal' and 'incompetent.' Those words shouldn't have been uttered. General Kukuła has competence, is normal, understands the need to modernize the army to meet the demands of the modern battlefield, not the old one. The President strongly supported him. But at times, this criticism of Mentzen goes further, suggesting that a politician should not even, cannot, argue with a general. And here I disagree. Politicians have the right and the duty to debate how the army should be organized; generals can also make mistakes, and there isn't enough money for everything. We have to choose – decide what the priority is. And I prefer Mentzen, who may be wrong, may speak rudely, but cares about the issue, over cynics who, for the sake of peace, give everything to the generals.”
“No, we cannot make this mistake again.”
https://x.com/michalkarnowski/status/2052059820878930223?s=46&t=K_brXCL7Ambpzi_jCOU9JA

-- HEALTH AND ENERGY PRICES WILL TRULY BE THE ELEMENTS THAT DECIDE WHO WINS THE ELECTION NEXT YEAR, NOT ZONDA KRYPTO NOR THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON JUSTYNA DOBROSZ-ORACZ'S SHOW: “I also think that health issues and energy prices will truly be the elements that decide, the factors that will determine who wins the election next year. And if Donald Tusk's government does not guarantee stable energy prices, so that people are not hit by sudden increases, if queues for doctors do not decrease, if there is better healthcare organization, at least an IT system that allows for booking appointments, efficient cancellations, and reducing queues. Then Donald Tusk's government will lose the election, because it won't be ZONDA krypto, nor the Constitutional Tribunal, nor any such issue that decides it, but healthcare and energy prices.”
https://x.com/tvp_info/status/2052133803842212250?s=20

-- THERE IS NO REFLECTION. IT MAY APPEAR AFTER THE AUTUMN 2027 ELECTIONS - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA: “Civic Platform pretends that nothing bad is happening. Meanwhile, we have the case of Senator Lenz. Wrocław TVP is blocking a report about Jacek Sutryk. There is no media law, and TVP, in liquidation, operates at the beck and call of the rulers. Accused Sławomir Nowak appears on this TVP and is portrayed as a martyr without challenge. Stanisław Gawłowski, who was unappealably convicted of corruption, remains the head of the Senate climate committee. There is no reflection. Perhaps it will appear after the autumn 2027 elections.”
https://x.com/DWielowieyska/status/2052261211039834522?s=20

-- THE DECISION ON LAYOFFS AT RINGIER AXEL SPRINGER POLSKA CAUSED A STIR AT THE HEADQUARTERS ON DOMANIEWSKA STREET IN WARSAW. THE SCALE AND MANNER OF THE ANNOUNCED REDUCTIONS SURPRISED EVEN EXPERIENCED JOURNALISTS. PEOPLE ARE IN SHOCK - DOMINIK SENKOWSKI ON WIRTUALNE MEDIA: “The atmosphere at the Warsaw editorial headquarters on Domaniewska Street is, according to our sources, the worst it's been in months. The meeting where key information was conveyed reportedly lasted only ten minutes. – The mood in the corridors is somber. On Tuesday, my editorial team was in total panic – says one of the journalists in an interview with Wirtualnemedia.pl. Not everyone is surprised, however. Some of the team had observed the competition's moves – for them, earlier reductions at Agora or Wirtualna Polska were a warning sign.”
https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/ringier-axel-springer-polska-zwolnienia-grupowe-rasp-pracownicy-onet-zwiazek-zawodowy,7283012273154080a

-- THE EMERGENCE OF THE KO-LEWICA ELECTORAL BLOC WORSENS THE SITUATION FOR THE DEMOCRATS - OPINIA24 SURVEY FOR GW DESCRIBED BY AGNIESZKA KUBLIK: “So what would the results look like if a two-party electoral bloc of Civic Coalition and The Left ran in the 2027 elections? Such an electoral bloc could count on 35.7% support. PiS – 23.4%. Confederation WiN would receive 12.2%, and Confederation Korona Polska – 7.9%. Below the threshold would be Razem (4%), Poland 2050 (3.1%), and PSL (3%). As can be seen, the emergence of the KO-L electoral bloc worsens the situation for the democrats. The estimated voter turnout in this scenario (63.1%) would be slightly lower than in the scenario of KO and The Left running separately (64.7%). 35.7% want to vote for the KO and The Left bloc – which is less than the combined support of KO and The Left in the separate running scenario (38.6%).”

-- 720 THOUSAND FEWER VOTERS THAN THE TOTAL NUMBER OF VOTERS SUPPORTING KO AND THE LEFT IN THE SEPARATE RUNNING SCENARIO - KUBLIK FURTHER IN GW: “Knowing the number of eligible voters (approximately 29.5 million), we can – given the turnout – estimate the electorate for a joint list at roughly 6.65 million voters. This is 720,000 fewer than the total number of voters supporting KO and The Left in the separate running scenario (7.37 million). The joint list 'loses' primarily Left voters. Its electorate in the separate running scenario is approximately 1.34 million voters. Of these, only 70.4% declare their intention to vote for the joint KO and The Left list. As many as 400,000 Left voters, instead of the joint list, support other parties or choose between 'I don't know who to vote for' and not voting.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32772490,sondaz-opinia24-dla-wyborczej.html

-- POLES ARE INCREASINGLY NOTICING THAT THERE ARE MORE OLDER PEOPLE AROUND THEM AND VERY FEW CHILDREN - ACCORDING TO A SURVEY COMMISSIONED BY RZ: “61% notice that the number of older people is increasing, and for 45.2% of respondents, this is also a reason for the lengthening queues for doctors. In turn, 44.3% of those surveyed indicated that they know about schools and kindergartens that are or will be closed due to a lack of children. In 14.2% of responses, the closure of public transport connections due to a lack of passengers was noted, which is also related to age. Moreover, almost every third respondent (30.8%) admitted that they notice other signs of an aging society. The specific signs were not indicated, but the first things that come to mind are the closure of maternity wards, e.g., in Bieszczady, or a shortage of labor.”
https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art44317401-sondaz-ibris-dla-rzeczpospolitej-na-co-dzien-widzimy-ze-jest-nas-w-polsce-coraz-mniej

-- BIRTHDAYS: Jan Okoński, Stanisław Żółtek, Monika Antkiewicz.
 


Łukasz Mężyk