state of play: 05/04/2026

STATE OF PLAY: Poczobut Unyielding, Dudek: A Center-Right Government Would Rule Today, Morawiecki Could Bring 30 MPs, Czuchnowski: The Crypto Affair Weakened Wipler, Surmacz: Newsmax in Poland is More Centrist

Łukasz Mężyk

-- I'LL SERVE TIME. SO WHAT, NELSON MANDELA SERVED FOR SO MANY YEARS, THE HOME ARMY SOLDIERS SERVED – ANDRZEJ POCZOBUT IN A MAJOR INTERVIEW WITH GW: “I want to try to return to Belarus. Everything depends on how things unfold at the border. Will they let me in, as they promised, or not. 
And what if they let you in, and then imprison you again?
– Then I'll serve time. So what, Nelson Mandela served for so many years, the Home Army soldiers served”.

-- 51% RATE THE GOVERNMENT POORLY, 29% WELL – OGB
https://x.com/Stan360PL/status/2051189768524800276?s=20

-- BIELAN: TRUMP IS THE FIRST US PRESIDENT IN DECADES WHO HAS MUCH MORE SYMPATHY FOR POLAND THAN FOR GERMANY. WE SHOULD UTILIZE THIS – 300LIVEhttps://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- MAY 28TH IS THE DATE WHEN INFORMATION ABOUT THE SCHEDULE AND FACES OF THE STATION WILL BE REVEALED. THE CHANNEL'S LAUNCH IS PLANNED FOR EARLY JUNE, WE HAVE APPLIED FOR A LICENSE IN THE NETHERLANDS – NEWSMAX EXECUTIVE PRODUCER WOJCIECH SURMACZ IN AN INTERVIEW WITH WIRTUALNEMEDIA.PL: “On May 28th, we will be able to say more on this topic. The launch will take place then, where we will present the schedule, and talk a bit more about Newsmax in Poland. A distinguishing feature will be, for example, broadly understood documentary blocks. We will be preparing them in Poland for the long term, but there will also be American blocks, blocks from other Newsmax stations in Europe. Additionally, in parallel, the Polish viewer will be able to watch the same content as the American viewer. There will be several American titles with Polish subtitles. We are working to ensure it is available on essentially all platforms, except for terrestrial transmitters”.

-- APART FROM BEING A TELEVISION CHANNEL WITH A SLIGHT CONSERVATIVE TILT, IN POLAND IT WILL BE MORE CENTRIST – SURMACZ FURTHER STATES TO WM: “Apart from being a television channel with a slight conservative tilt, in Poland it will be more centrist. It's true, as you wrote a few weeks ago based on anonymous sources. Now I can confirm it anonymously. The programming line of Newsmax Polska is intended to be center-right.”

-- I HAVEN'T FOUND THIS IN POLISH MEDIA. ONE CAN ASK: WHY? DIDN'T IT FIT THE NARRATIVE? – SURMACZ FURTHER ON THE FINANCING SOURCES OF SERBIAN TELEKOM: “In 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine. I have a feeling that a lot has changed during that time. Not just in Serbia. In 2024, a real transaction took place on the Dublin stock exchange in Ireland. Serbian Telekom issued bonds worth about 900 million dollars. They sold for almost 5 billion dollars. Banks such as Bank of America, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Erste, Raiffeisen Bank, UniCredit, and the strongest Japanese financial group Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group participated in this transaction. I haven't found this in Polish media. One can ask: why? Didn't it fit the narrative?”

-- THE ENTIRE NEWSMAX IS PRO-UKRAINIAN. IF NO ONE HAS NOTICED THIS IN POLAND, I AM SORRY – SURMACZ FURTHER IN WM: “They can only be more pro-Ukrainian. The entire Newsmax is pro-Ukrainian. If no one has noticed this in Poland, then I am sorry.”
https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/newsmax-polska-wywiad-szef-wojciech-surmacz-transfery-republika-koncesja-jak-ogladac,7280971212097568a

-- REGARDING MY "EFFECT", DON'T OVERDO IT, I'M JUST GETTING STARTED. WE HAVE STUDIES THAT INDICATED MANY POSITIVE CHANGES – PRZEMYSŁAW CZARNEK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK AND GRZEGORZ OSIECKI FOR WP: “Let's leave that. Regarding my 'effect', don't overdo it, I'm just getting started. We have studies that indicated many positive changes, especially before the holidays, then there were slight turbulences for known reasons, and today we are returning to balance and initiative. I approach the difficult task set before me with great humility and responsibility. Our goals are clear. I agreed to the proposal of the party leader and leadership and became the driver of our high-speed train, which is hurtling towards victory. This is obvious, but it's about emphasizing the task to be accomplished at this stage. We have two tasks. Firstly, reversing the trends that have been present since the beginning of this year. Since January, almost every poll has shown a systematic decline in PiS's ratings – even to the level of 18 percent. We managed to stop this within four weeks, and we are also seeing the first increases. Secondly, it's about presenting a conservative offer for right-wing voters, which is intended to have an impact over the next dozen or so months.”

-- THE LAST THING I'M THINKING ABOUT IS ANY PROVOCATIONS. I'M STRONGLY COUNTING ON THE SUPPORT OF MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI AS WELL – CZARNEK FURTHER IN WP: “I am the politician of Law and Justice who probably speaks most often and loudest about unity and focus on the goal, which is winning the elections. The last thing I'm thinking about is any provocations. I'm strongly counting on the support of Mateusz Morawiecki as well. We agreed that today we are not discussing at all who will be who after a victorious election. Today, we are discussing how to win.”

-- IF I FORESEE A COALITION BREAKUP, TODAY I ASSESS IT AT 5%, WHEREAS IN THE AUTUMN IT WAS EVEN 25% – CZARNEK FURTHER WITH OSIECKI AND ŻÓŁCIAK IN WP: “I think there is some reason why Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is being held by Donald Tusk by the cuff, even though PSL is sinking terribly in the polls. I don't understand why they are still going along with all of this. But if you gentlemen ask me if I foresee a coalition breakup, today I assess it at 5%, while in the autumn it was even 25%.”

-- AND DO YOU GENTLEMEN CONSIDER DEFENDING THE MONUMENT TO THE RED ARMY SOLDIERS AS CONSERVATIVE? THAT IS MADNESS – CZARNEK ON BRAUN'S CIRCLE: “And do you gentlemen consider defending the monument to the Red Army soldiers as conservative? That is madness. I don't understand people who are with Braun today, and at the same time are associated with, for example, the World Union of Home Army Soldiers and tolerate their circle defending monuments to the Red Army soldiers, who, among other things, murdered those soldiers. This is so internally contradictory that it must shatter.”

-- GERMANY AND FRANCE WANT TO PUSH AMERICA OUT AND MAKE A DEAL WITH PUTIN. WHO WILL LOSE OUT ON THIS? ME AND YOU. ALL OF POLAND – CZARNEK FURTHER IN WP: “I want to build alliances with everyone, but especially with those who can help us the most. We have 10,000 American soldiers in Poland. Not German. And we want to have more of them, because we know that the military potential of the United States is the only one capable of stopping Putin. If anyone believes that Germany and France will stop Putin, they completely misunderstand reality. Germany and France want to push America out and make a deal with Putin. Who will lose out on this? Me and you. All of Poland.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/przemyslaw-czarnek-w-wp-dopiero-sie-rozkrecam-7281851814340640a

-- MORAWIECKI INTRODUCING EVEN 30 OF HIS LOYAL PEOPLE INTO THE SEJM AS PART OF SOME NEW THIRD WAY SEEMS REALISTIC TODAY. BOTH TUSK AND KACZYŃSKI WOULD NEED THEIR VOTES FOR A MAJORITY – PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “In the next Sejm, such a formation could become a kingmaker, especially if it ran together with PSL under the guise of a new Third Way. Potentially, it would therefore be a force that both Tusk and Kaczyński would need for a majority. Such a formation wouldn't even have to enter the government but could control it from the outside. And securing such a position or introducing even 30 of their loyal people into the next Sejm seems like something Morawiecki could realistically try to achieve today.”

-- TODAY, I FIND IT MORE PROBABLE THAN THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT MAJORITY THAT THE RIGHT-WING PARTIES WILL GAIN A MAJORITY IN THE NEXT SEJM – DUDEK FURTHER WITH MAJMUREK: “I don't believe in PiS returning to power on its own, Kaczyński – I suspect – doesn't either anymore. But today, I find it more probable than the maintenance of the current majority that the right-wing parties will gain a majority in the next Sejm. And then Karol Nawrocki will strive to become the patron of a new right-wing arrangement. Perhaps one capable of even changing the constitution.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/pis-wypchnie-mateusza-morawieckiego-prof-antoni-dudek-o-scenariuszach/xe53pwg,452ad802

-- ACCORDING TO OUR SOURCES, THE CRYPTO AFFAIR HAS GREATLY WEAKENED WIPLER'S POSITION IN KONFEDERACJA – WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “PiS and Konfederacja officially assure that they had no ties to Zondacrypto. However, according to our sources, the crypto affair has greatly weakened Wipler's position in Konfederacja. In turn, before the weekend, PiS removed MP Janusz Kowalski from its club. The decision was driven by the MP's involvement in supporting Zondacrypto. Kowalski says he left on his own because he 'did not tolerate certain arrangements'. However, according to wp.pl, Kowalski visited the Katowice headquarters of Zondacrypto and other premises associated with its head, Przemysław Kral, four times. According to the portal's interlocutors, 'during his visits, jammers were turned on in the company.' 'Ultimately, Kowalski was ruined by an anonymous tip that came to Nowogrodzka, describing the MP's ties to the exchange. The material was detailed, containing a lot of information that implicated Kowalski,' writes wp.pl.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32766055,zonda-z-tylnego-siedzenia.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Wojciech Mucha, Piotr Tyma. 


Łukasz Mężyk