state of play: 04/30/2026

POLITICAL STANDOFF: Morawiecki Edges Closer to Trust Podium, Nawrocki Outpaces Competition, RZ Poll: Poles Unconcerned by Zondacrypto Affair

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRZYDACZ ON US ENGAGEMENT IN POCZOBUT'S RELEASE: IT WAS A GAME CHANGER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-04-30/

-- PRESIDENT'S TRUST RATINGS IMPROVE ACCORDING TO ONET, HE IS THE ONLY ONE WITH MORE POSITIVE THAN NEGATIVE INDICATIONS: “President Karol Nawrocki, in a new IBRiS poll commissioned by Onet, recorded 49.1% positive indications ('I definitely trust' — 24.4%, 'I rather trust' — 24.7%). This is 2.8 percentage points higher than in the March survey. 41.6% of respondents have a negative opinion of the president ('I definitely do not trust' — 28.5%, 'I rather do not trust' — 13.1%). This means that Karol Nawrocki is the only politician in the rankings to register more positive than negative indications.”

-- HE JUMPS TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE PODIUM AND COULD POTENTIALLY TARGET THE TOP THREE IN THE FUTURE — HE TRAILS RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI BY ONLY 0.6 PERCENTAGE POINTS - WRITES ONET: “The opposition leader in the rankings remains PiS Vice-Chairman Mateusz Morawiecki, who is trusted by 36.8% of respondents, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from last month. This means the former prime minister and founder of the Rozwój Plus association is now in a position just off the podium and could potentially target the top three rankings in the future — he trails Radosław Sikorski by only 0.6 percentage points.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/nowy-sondaz-zaufania-ibris-nawrocki-odsadza-konkurencje-zmiany-w-czolowce/18ge194,79cfc278

-- POLES DON'T CARE ABOUT THE ZONDAKRYPTO AFFAIR - RZ POLL: “Over 82% of Poles are against state aid for clients of the Zondacrypto exchange. 58.7% believe that investors should be aware of the risks, and for 23.5% of respondents, cryptocurrencies are simply speculation.”
https://www.rp.pl/konsumenci/art44269031-sondaz-dla-rzeczpospolitej-polacy-uwazaja-ze-klienci-zondacrypto-sa-sami-sobie-winni

-- I CANNOT SYMPATHIZE WITH THE "VICTIMS" OF ZONDACRYPTO - EWA SZADKOWSKA IN RZ: “I don't want my taxes to go towards supporting risk-takers and speculators who have made a mistake. Fortunately, I'm not alone in this sentiment.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art44267891-ewa-szadkowska-nie-potrafie-wspolczuc-ofiarom-zondacrypto

-- FOR NOW, WE KNOW ONE THING – TUSK HAS TAKEN A BIG RISK - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The conflict with Iran is shaking the global economy and testing NATO's credibility. As Donald Trump threatens NATO, and Donald Tusk questions its loyalty, Friedrich Merz seeks a place for Germany in the new security architecture. (...) In this arrangement, Poland has yet to find its place. And this is how Tusk's rather risky statement should be understood. It could harm Poland if we fail to reach an understanding with Germany and the Americans. If we succeed, we will praise it. For now, we know one thing – Tusk has taken a big risk.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44270251-michal-szuldrzynski-iran-nato-3-0-i-nowy-lad-w-europie-w-co-graja-trump-merz-i-tusk

-- RAFAŁ KALUKIN ON THE SCENARIO OF PULLING HOŁOWNIA INTO THE GOVERNMENT - WRITES IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “But other scenarios are also circulating. Such as another attempt to bring Hołownia into the government as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Culture (replacing Cienkowska), who still has a small group of devoted supporters within the Polski 2050 club. This would tie him more closely to the coalition and create a counterweight to the unmanageable Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. However, it is unclear whether Hołownia would be tempted by this, as after reducing his ambitions, he has reportedly appreciated his current role as Deputy Marshal of the Sejm. Regardless, the current state of affairs seems unsustainable in the long run. The question is whether the Polski 2050 problem will be solved with a stick or perhaps a carrot.”

-- TRYING TO PULL OUT A TOOTH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN BREAKING THE ENTIRE JAW - KALUKIN ON MORAWIECKI'S POSITION IN PIS: “Consequently, it is difficult to intimidate Morawiecki. At most, he can be expelled, but Kaczyński, being cornered, cannot do this without further losses, because — as surveys show — the former prime minister represents a significant portion of the PiS electorate. And when he has now consolidated his position within the party club, an attempt to pull out a tooth would likely result in breaking the entire jaw. Morawiecki has attracted various circles to his faction, also responding to the general sense of confusion and loss of faith in the PiS leader's political instinct.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2340875,1,burze-w-koalicji-burze-w-opozycji-tusk-traci-cierpliwosc-kaczynski-moze-stracic-kontrole.read

-- IN YESTERDAY'S STAN GRY, WE ATTRIBUTED THE STATEMENTS OF DR. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK TO PROFESSOR JAROSŁAW FLIS, for which we apologize.
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2340661,1,rafal-chwedoruk-dla-polityki-tusk-ma-dwie-strategie-boi-sie-powtorki-z-wyborow-prezydenckich.read

-- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Rostowski, Marek Jakubiak, Steve Mull, Mikołaj Lizut, FRIDAY: Joanna Szczepkowska, Piotr Skwieciński, Jarosław Sellin, Małgorzata Chmiel, Andrzej Śmietanko, Andrzej Wojtyła.
 


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