-- 48% FOR THE PRESIDENT, 37 AGAINST - OGB: The latest poll indicates that 48.3% of respondents have a positive opinion of Karol Nawrocki's performance in his role. A neutral stance, expressed as "neither good nor bad," was taken by 15.2% of respondents. Conversely, 36.6% of respondents expressed a critical opinion of the president.
https://x.com/Stan360PL/status/2049066545763041322?s=20

-- SIEMONIAK ON POCZOBUT'S RELEASE: NAWROCKI'S CONVERSATION WITH TRUMP CERTAINLY HAD SIGNIFICANCE FOR THE MATTER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2026-04-29/

-- "NEW YORK TIMES": "ANOTHER SUCCESS FOR TRUMP'S POLICY TOWARDS BELARUS": “Several countries participated in a prisoner exchange that included a well-known journalist released to Poland – this is a result of the Trump administration's efforts towards Belarus, which are yielding further benefits. Belarus, a close ally of Russia, released five prisoners in exchange for two Russians and three other individuals held by countries hostile to Moscow. Intelligence services from seven countries facilitated the exchange, with additional support from the Trump administration.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,32758367,sukces-polityki-trumpa-krok-minska-w-strone-zachodu-swiatowe.html

-- AMERICAN INTERVENTION AND SANCTIONS RELIEF FOR BELARUS ARE IN THE BACKGROUND - MIŁADA JĘDRYSIK IN OKO.PRESS: “Such a prisoner exchange, which also involved Russians – due to Butiagin – would likely not have been possible without the intervention of the United States, which has been softening its approach towards Belarus since Donald Trump took office. Since 2025, Lukashenka has been successively releasing political prisoners, including the most well-known ones, such as Aleś Bialacki and Maryja Kalesnikava. In total, around 500 people have been released from prison. In return, the Trump administration is easing sanctions imposed on Belarus – especially for companies exporting fertilizers – as Marta and Andrzej Goworscy write in "GW." This commodity is particularly valuable to the American market, which, after the White House initiated a trade war with Canada among others, is facing significant problems due to rising prices of this commodity.”
https://oko.press/andrzej-poczobut-juz-w-polsce-sikorski-mamy-go

-- POLISH DIPLOMACY, TOGETHER WITH US PRESIDENT'S SPECIAL ENVOY JOHN COALE - RUSŁAN SZOSZYN IN RZ: “Evidently, Polish diplomacy, together with the US President's special envoy John Coale (whom Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski met in Warsaw on Tuesday), found the appropriate arguments to convince Alexander Lukashenka.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44255521-ruslan-szoszyn-andrzej-poczobut-na-wolnosci-jak-dobro-zwyciezylo-zlo

-- KO AND THE LEFT COULD GOVERN ALONE - NEW IBRIS POLL FOR RZ: KO 32 (-0.4), PiS 23.2 (-1.3), Konf 12 (-1.4), Lewica 8.7 (+1), Braun 7.9 (+0.4), PSL 4.4, Razem 4 (+1.1). Converting the poll support, Donald Tusk's and Włodzimierz Czarzasty's parties together have 232 seats – says sociologist Prof. Jarosław Flis in an interview with "Rzeczpospolita."

-- DRAW BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION: “There is almost an equilibrium between the ruling and opposition camps. The ruling parties have a total of 45.6% support, and the opposition 47.1%, but it's hard to imagine the left-wing Razem supporting the right-wing – summarizes Prof. Flis.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art44253171-nowy-sondaz-partyjny-ko-i-lewica-moglyby-rzadzic-samodzielnie

-- KO HAS A GLASS CEILING ABOVE IT. IT'S EVEN WORSE IN PIS - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Civic Platform – to paraphrase a famous phrase – is winning the poll but not celebrating. Donald Tusk's party has reached 32% support and is unable to take another step. And this – given the results of other parties – could mean a Pyrrhic victory similar to the one achieved by PiS in 2023. At the same time, PiS can only envy KO's problems, as the party is spinning its wheels and yearning for the support level of 30%, which was once obvious for this grouping. If Przemysław Czarnek was meant to bring about the so-called Czarnek effect, in the form of reversing poll trends, it is currently a symptomless effect.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44251791-artur-bartkiewicz-wnioski-z-nowego-sondazu-ko-ma-nad-soba-szklany-sufit-w-pis-jeszcze-gorzej

-- ORBÁN'S DEFEAT ALSO SHOWS THAT ISSUES OF WAR, SECURITY, ETC., DO NOT NECESSARILY WIN ELECTIONS; IF THE WAR TURBULENCE SUBSIDES IN EUROPE BY THEN, THE PROBLEM OF SOCIAL ASPIRATIONS WILL RETURN – WHICH PO WAS UNABLE TO ANSWER – PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JAKUB MAJMUREK ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: “Orbán's defeat also shows that issues of war, security, etc., do not necessarily win elections. In 2027, the elections might be about something entirely different than security. If the war turbulence subsides in Europe by then, the problem of social aspirations will return – which PO failed to address after 2011, paving the way for PiS's victory in 2015.”

-- AT SOME POINT, THE YOUNGER PART OF POLISH SOCIETY BEGAN TO DRIFT AWAY FROM PIS, FOR WHOM THE PARTY'S MESSAGE IS SIMPLY UNINTELLIGIBLE - FLIS CONTINUES AT MAJMUREK'S: “After 2011, to survive its second term in opposition, PiS had to become insular, and as a result, it became a more conservative party than it was intended to be and more social than would be evident from the views and biographies of its leaders. The reformed PiS then won in 2015 and 2019, but a problem arose related to the gap between the generation that remembers the pre-globalization world and the one that did not experience it; between the generation raised in the world of new technologies and the one that relies more heavily on traditional mass media. In other words: at some point, the younger part of Polish society began to drift away from PiS, for whom the party's message is simply unintelligible.”

-- TUSK HOLDS THE KEY TO KONFEDERACJA'S NORMALIZATION - FLIS CONTINUES AT MAJMUREK'S: “Konfederacja has practically been functioning as a centrist party for some time, not ideologically, but functionally, as a force independent of PiS – despite being more radical than PiS on worldview issues. Tusk holds the key to Konfederacja's normalization. His policy will determine whether Konfederacja becomes a normal party with which a government can be formed, or extremists who must be surrounded by a 'sanitary cordon’.”

-- NAWROCKI WILL RATHER BUILD BRIDGES BETWEEN PIS AND VARIOUS CIRCLES ON THE RIGHT, AND EVEN WITH PSL - CLAIMS PROF. FLIS: “Nawrocki will rather build bridges between PiS and various circles on the right, and even with PSL, if that party survives as an independent entity. The extent to which he will be able to implement this scenario depends on how long his honeymoon period lasts, how long he will be perceived as a politician outside the establishment. PiS has bet on a very risky candidate with many burdens. This risk has paid off – although it narrowly avoided a bad outcome – but over time, voters will start to look closely at Nawrocki. And they may realize that, given the president's real views, Andrzej Duda, not to mention Lech Kaczyński, are almost centrist politicians in comparison.”

-- TUSK'S TWO STRATEGIES - WITH MENTZEN OR WITH THE LEFT - FLIS CONTINUES AT MAJMUREK'S: “The success of two basic strategies that Tusk can implement depends on whether this tactic works. The first is building bridges towards some agreement with Konfederacja or a minority government with its Mentzen faction. If Radosław Sikorski's importance grows, and Civic Platform remembers that in its early days it was a conservative-liberal party, it will be a sign that this strategy is being implemented. The second is an attempt to fight for a majority with Nowa Lewica.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2340661,1,rafal-chwedoruk-dla-polityki-tusk-ma-dwie-strategie-boi-sie-powtorki-z-wyborow-prezydenckich.read

-- BIRTHDAYS: Jarosław Duda, Piotr Gontarczyk, Vadim Makarenko, Piotr Barełkowski, Jacek Bendykowski.