state of play: 04/23/2026

STATE OF PLAY: Rokita: Only aspirational right can win elections in Poland, I see no other politician besides Morawiecki; Szczerek: Magyar is a phase 'after' the cultural war

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRESIDENT TRAINED WITH CHILDREN AND YOUTH AT THE FIGHT ACADEMY: https://www.facebook.com/reel/976485045078415

-- THURSDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: TUSK AT THE EU SUMMIT, MORAWIECKI AND PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ IN KATOWICE FOR AN EKG, KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ IN SOKOŁÓW PODLASKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- DEBT IS GROWING AT AN ALARMING RATE, ONLY ROMANIA IS WORSE - RZ: "Debt is growing at an alarming rate. Poland is a step away from the constitutional barrier. The public finance deficit in 2025 has soared to 7.3% of GDP, and debt to almost 60% of GDP – reported the Central Statistical Office in a statement on Wednesday. Unfortunately, our performance in the EU is abysmal, only Romania is worse."
https://www.rp.pl/budzet-i-podatki/art44206211-dlug-rosnie-w-zastraszajacym-tempie-polska-o-krok-od-konstytucyjnej-bariery

-- TUSK'S LEADERSHIP IS LIKE CLASSICAL TYRANNY, THERE IS A STATE, I WOULD SAY, OF INTERNAL PSYCHOSIS WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR ANY INTERNAL DEBATE AT ALL - JAN ROKITA ON KANAŁ ZERO: "There is a rather fundamental difference between the leadership of PiS and the leadership of Civic Platform. That is, between Tusk's leadership and Kaczyński's leadership. More precisely, Tusk's leadership is, I would say, a classical tyranny, a classical party tyranny, of course. That is, the principle of 'hands off the seams' applies there. That is, one must not oppose Tusk, and no one would have the courage to oppose Tusk. There is a state, I would say, of internal psychosis, which does not allow for any internal debate at all. The party is a kind of fiction, that is, it is an appendage, in reality, to the political activity of the leader and the chief, and the principle of absolute obedience applies within it. Such a simple, classical tyranny."

-- TYRANNY IN PiS IS DIFFERENT. I WOULD SAY IT IS LIBERALIZED TYRANNY. TURMOIL IN THE PARTY IS PERMANENT, SOME SHAKING, TURMOIL, CONFLICT IS PARADOXICALLY WELCOMED - ROKITA CONTINUES ON KANAŁ ZERO: "Tyranny in PiS is different. I would say it is liberalized tyranny. What does the liberalization of this tyranny consist of? Obedience also applies there, and above all, subservience to the chairman. These are fundamental elements of this party system. Without subservience to the leader, there is no possibility of membership in either party. But the difference is, and this is very interesting in my opinion, and it has always been so. In Kaczyński's parties, it was like that even in Centre Agreement. Now it is the same in PiS, that while subservience to the chairman is absolutely required, at the same time, permanent turmoil in the party, some shaking, turmoil, conflict is paradoxically welcomed. Experts on this party, experts on PiS from the inside, have often explained to me in various situations that Chairman Kaczyński is a man who likes to manage permanent conflict. He feels best in such a situation. I don't know if this is true or not. I have never been in PiS and probably never will be. However, there is some truth in this description."

-- KACZYŃSKI SHOWS HE HAS A REVOLVER, BUT HE TAKES OUT THE REVOLVER, AIMS AT MORAWIECKI, BUT DOESN'T SHOOT, HE JUST SHOWS HE HAS A REVOLVER - ROKITA CONTINUES: "He simply not only shows that he has a revolver, but he takes out the revolver, aims at Morawiecki, but doesn't shoot, he just shows that he has a revolver. They won't be on these lists if they don't back down, if they don't do something, if they get involved in this, if they get involved in this. This is a revolver in the party system, this is a revolver. It's not a shot yet, but it's a revolver. And in a moment, literally in a moment, we hear that this revolver is being sheathed. Or maybe they will have places on the lists? If not, if they don't do anything wrong, it depends on what they do at all, he says."

-- WITH TUSK, THE CONSEQUENCE WOULD BE IMMEDIATE EXECUTION. THERE WOULD BE NO TRACE OF THEM LEFT, THEY WOULD STILL BE SMILING AFTER DEATH - ROKITA STATES: "With Tusk, the consequence would be immediate execution. There would be no trace of them left, they would still be smiling after death, really, because Tusk kills in such a way that they still smile after death, so it would be immediate. Here there is no execution, and here there is a gun that is shown and then it is. This moment of withdrawal is an act on Kaczyński's part."

-- WHICH CZECHOV VARIANT COMES INTO PLAY HERE. WILL THERE BE THE CHERRY ORCHARD? WILL THE GUN FIRE IN THE FOURTH ACT, OR WILL IT NOT FIRE? - ROKITA ASKS ON KANAŁ ZERO: "I love Czekhov's dramas terribly. If you remember, for example, The Seagull, things really happen like that, right? The artist who comes with a gun in the first act commits suicide with the same gun in the fourth. But if you look at, for example, The Cherry Orchard, it's completely different. There is the clerk Semyon Epikhodov, who walks around with a revolver all the time, but it turns out that in the end he loses everything and doesn't use the revolver. Czekhov pokes fun at his own principle a bit. Why am I telling these stories about Czekhov? Because in essence, Morawiecki's key problem right now, after what happened on Thursday, April 16th, boils down to which Czekhov variant comes into play here. Will there be The Cherry Orchard? Will the gun fire in the fourth act, or will the gun not fire? This is fundamental for Morawiecki and for all his people."

-- THEY WILL NEVER BE SURE OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THEM UNTIL MAY NEXT YEAR, AND TO WHAT EXTENT THEY WILL BE EXTERMINATED ON PARTY LISTS - ROKITA CONTINUES: "April 16th changed their situation, because they will never be sure of what will happen to them until May next year, when the decisions about electoral lists begin, they will no longer be sure of what will really happen to them and to what extent they will be subjected to extermination on party lists. A purely literary matter, one might say, but in this case, a political matter."

-- THE ASPIRATIONAL RIGHT IS BASICALLY THE ONLY KIND OF RIGHT THAT IS NOT ONLY NEEDED IN POLAND, BUT WHICH CAN WIN ELECTIONS IN POLAND, I DON'T SEE ANY OTHER POLITICIAN BESIDES MORAWIECKI - ROKITA STATES ON KANAŁ ZERO: "I'm talking about conservatism being conservatism, and the cultural war being the cultural war, these are all very important things, but that it is not enough in today's reality, meaning that one needs to look for ways, that it is the function of the right to accelerate development, and the acceleration of Poland's development, because only then will Poland mean more in the world. Only then will people earn more money, only then will there be a higher level of satisfaction. I share this logic. I believe that the aspirational right is basically the only kind of right that is not only needed in Poland, but which can win elections in Poland. And I have no doubts about that. Here I have no doubts on this one matter, that if we are talking about aspirationalism, that is, about a government that has aspirations. I consciously use this word to push Poland forward decisively in its development. Then I don't see any other politician besides Morawiecki who would truly have such an ambition in Poland."

-- MORAWIECKI IS CREDIBLE AND THERE IS NO ONE MORE CREDIBLE IN THIS REGARD IN POLAND, MORAWIECKI'S OPPONENTS IN PiS ARE INCREASINGLY BECOMING ARTERIOSCLEROTIC CONSERVATIVES - ROKITA CONTINUES: "Morawiecki is credible and there is no one more credible in this regard in Poland. This is a fundamental thing. Is Tusk lazy? And are the opponents of Morawiecki in PiS increasingly becoming arteriosclerotic conservatives? Are they not really interested or do they have no idea how to find ways to truly accelerate Poland's development?"
https://youtu.be/OQveWiMGQS0?si=Aioru81MhVw7uv8S

-- MATEUSZ IS SACROSANCT. NO ONE IN PiS SO FAR HAS BEEN ABLE TO ALLOW THEMSELVES SO MUCH - JACEK PRUSINOWSKI ON PORTAL ZERO: "Mateusz Morawiecki is one of as many as eleven vice-chairmen of Law and Justice, but only on paper. In practice, in PiS, the position of first deputy to Jarosław Kaczyński has been created, and it is held by the former prime minister. Morawiecki has obtained permission for his association's activities, albeit with certain restrictions."

-- THE TRUE TEST OF THE DURABILITY AND QUALITY OF THE CEASEFIRE IN PiS, BECAUSE IT IS NOT PEACE, WILL BE THE TIME OF ARRANGING LISTS - PRUSINOWSKI CONTINUES ON PORTAL ZERO: "The problem is that, remaining in the logic of power, the chairman of Law and Justice still possesses by far the most arguments. He yielded, but as I hear from those least benevolent towards Morawiecki, it may only be a temporary concession. The true test of the durability and quality of the ceasefire in PiS, because it is not peace, will be the time of arranging lists before the parliamentary elections. It is then that the chairman can reward for good deeds and punish for bad ones, which representatives of the more radical (I don't care for the term 'maślarze') party faction emphasize with evident hope in their voice."
https://zero.pl/news/dla-czesci-politykow-pis-to-morawiecki-a-nie-kaczynski-jest-dzisiaj-prawdziwym-liderem

-- PiS IS NOTCHING ITS LOWEST POLL RESULTS IN A DECADE. SINCE THE 2023 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THE PARTY HAS LOST AS MUCH AS 8.9 PERCENTAGE POINTS, OR MORE THAN A QUARTER OF ITS ELECTORATE. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KO AND PiS NOW EXCEEDS 9 PERCENTAGE POINTS - MICHAŁ ROGALSKI ON ONE: According to Onet's April electoral forecast, Civic Coalition is achieving record support of 34.8%. This is the highest level in many years and an increase of 1.7 percentage points in a month. Law and Justice ranks second with a result of 26.5%. PiS is recording its lowest poll results in a decade. Since the 2023 parliamentary elections, the party has lost as much as 8.9 percentage points, or more than a quarter of its electorate. The difference between KO and PiS now exceeds 9 percentage points. Confederation scores 12.5% (a decrease of 0.5 points), and Confederation of the Polish Crown – 8.5%. This latter party is a thorn in the side of Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak – according to Onet, it is precisely responsible for Confederation's poll slump. New Left achieves 6.1% and records a decrease of 0.3% compared to the results of an analogous poll from a month ago.
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/rekordowy-wynik-tuska-pis-w-defensywie-co-pokazuje-prognoza-wyborcza-onetu/wlt1fnq,79cfc278

-- CONFEDERATION DIDN'T EVEN DREAM THEIR MOTION WOULD CAUSE SUCH TURMOIL IN THE COALITION - TOMASZ NYCZKA IN GW: "When I ask in Confederation if the matter has unfolded to their liking, I hear that even more so – they didn't expect to succeed in sowing discord among coalition partners so much. Because Poland 2050, and incidentally PSL, for many days – and the vote is only at the end of April, so the matter is developing – have been following their lead exactly, and the ruling coalition is once again going through turbulence as during the most serious crisis to date, when divisions occurred in Poland 2050."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32744871,konfederacja-nie-marzyla-nawet-ze-jej-wniosek-spowoduje-taki.html

-- TRZASKOWSKI PREFERRED TO OFFEND LGBT VOTERS, AND HOW HE WILL PAY FOR IT, HIS POSITION IN THE PARTY IS CLOSER TO A FERN - MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: "The LGBT community didn't have high hopes for Tusk's government. But they felt betrayed when Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, repeated the same rhetoric. Trzaskowski is between a rock and a hard place. He cannot meet the expectations of issuing marriage transcripts to everyone. He would have to go to war with his own party. He cannot do it, he does not want to, it is not his element. He is not the leader of the progressive wing in Civic Coalition, as was once believed. His position in the party after losing the presidential election for the second time is closer to a fern."

-- THE WRATH OF THIS COMMUNITY IS HARMFUL TO HIM. IT STRIPS HIM OF ANOTHER LAYER OF TEFLON, ALREADY HEAVILY SCRATCHED AFTER THE ALCOHOLIC NIGHT SILENCE, WHICH SHOWED THAT HE IS NOT AN AUTHORITY EVEN FOR CIVIC COALITION'S CITY COUNCILLORS - WOJTCZUK CONTINUES IN GW: "But the wrath of this community is harmful to him. It strips him of another layer of Teflon, already heavily scratched after the alcoholic night silence, which showed that he is not an authority even for Civic Coalition's city councillors. And it doesn't matter that later it turned out that Trzaskowski was factually right, and the councillors had to change their minds by 180 degrees in a compromising manner and support restrictions on alcohol sales."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32745381,czy-trzaskowski-zostanie-wygwizdany-na-paradzie-rownosci-i-co.html

-- MAGYAR NOT AS A REPRESENTATIVE OF ONE OF THE CULTURAL WAR CAMPS, BUT AS SOMEONE WHO CONSCIOUSLY BUILDS A PROJECT "AFTER IT" - ZIEMOWIT SZCZEREK IN GW: "Magyar is part of this correction. Voters were happy with his victory because it led to the re-centering of the pendulum that had swung strongly to the right under Viktor Orbán. But they already treat him more as a politician of a new type: not as a representative of one of the cultural war camps, but as someone who consciously builds a project 'after it'."

-- ON THE ONE HAND – COMMITMENT TO THE NATION-STATE AND MIGRATION CONTROL, AND ON THE OTHER – THE REBUILDING OF THE RULE OF LAW AND RELATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION - SZCZEREK CONTINUES: "His program combines elements that a few years ago would have been considered mutually contradictory. On the one hand – commitment to the nation-state and migration control, and on the other – the rebuilding of the rule of law and relations with the European Union. Moreover, this is not just a simple ideological synthesis. It seems rather that we are dealing here with a practical response to social fatigue with conflict. And it is this that has defined politics for years – not only in Hungary, but throughout the West."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32741463,magyar-zatrzymal-wahadlo-wojny-kulturowej-zachod-jest-coraz.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Anda Rottenberg, Anna Kalczyńska-Maciejowska, Jakub Bodziony. 
 


Łukasz Mężyk