state of play: 04/20/2026

STATE OF PLAY: GW on US Bases Relocation to Poland: Unprecedented Security Level, but EU Risks; Bielecki: France is Plan B for Trump, Poland Might Get Nuclear Strike

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MORAWIECKI: TUSK WANTS TO MOVE TO THE CENTER-RIGHT, AND I DON'T WANT TO LEAVE HIM SPACE; MORAWIECKI ON TODAY'S MEETING WITH KACZYŃSKI: WE WILL DEFINITELY CLARIFY CERTAIN THINGS; DOMAŃSKI ON RAISING THE SECOND TAX THRESHOLD: POLSKA 2050 AND PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ DID NOT DIRECTLY PROPOSE THIS TO ME - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- DANIEL FRIED ON THE RELOCATION OF US TROOPS TO POLAND: I WOULD ACCEPT THIS OFFER - IN DOROTA ROMAN'S ARTICLE IN GW: “Daniel Fried is more optimistic here. The former US Ambassador to Poland believes that relocating American troops from Western Europe to Polish soil could be an effective, albeit costly, tool to mitigate Trump's critical stance towards NATO. – A withdrawal from Ramstein is costly and simply doesn't make much sense. But if we are to satisfy Donald Trump's needs, one can consider on what basis you can move from Western European countries to Poland and Romania. I would accept this offer – Fried told PAP.”

-- GOOD RELATIONS WITH PRESIDENT NAWROCKI AND ROMANIA'S STANCE ARE KEY HERE - FURTHER IN DOROTA ROMAN'S ARTICLE IN GW: “According to Fried, such a reshuffle would be a political success for Trump. Key here are good relations with President Nawrocki and Romania's stance – Bucharest has declared its support on the issue of Iran and is leveraging its proximity to the Middle East, making it a strategic partner for US interests beyond Europe.”

-- THE MATERIALIZATION OF TRUMP'S PLANS WOULD PROVIDE US WITH AN UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF MILITARY SECURITY; THE PRICE FOR THIS ADVANCEMENT MAY BE DIPLOMATIC ISOLATION WITHIN THE EU STRUCTURES - FURTHER IN DOROTA ROMAN'S ARTICLE IN GW: “Although the materialization of Trump's plans would provide us with an unprecedented level of military security, the price for this advancement may be diplomatic isolation within EU structures. Warsaw must be aware that by becoming a beneficiary of Washington's political games, it risks playing the role of a 'Trojan horse' that will help Trump permanently divide Europe.”https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32722809,relokacja-sil-usa-w-europie-polska-w-pulapce-zemsty-trumpa.html

-- FRANCE IS TUSK'S PLAN B FOR DONALD TRUMP - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “France was disappointed with Vladimir Putin, Poland with Donald Trump. This has brought the two countries closer. On Monday, Emmanuel Macron will visit Gdańsk, but the rapprochement with France will not survive Marine Le Pen's victory.”

-- MACRON'S ONLY PARTNER IS TUSK: THERE WILL BE NO MEETING WITH KAREL NAWROCKI - FURTHER IN BIELECKI'S ARTICLE IN RZ: “Even now, Macron's only partner is Tusk: there will be no meeting with Karel Nawrocki, who also comes from the Tricity. On the other hand, Jarosław Kaczyński's party unanimously supported the Treaty of Nancy signed a year ago, opening a new chapter in relations between the two countries, and the president quickly signed it.”

-- ANOTHER ASPECT OF WARSAW'S GREATER DISTANCE FROM WASHINGTON IS THE REAL CHANCE OF AWARDING THE CONTRACT FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SECOND NUCLEAR POWER PLANT TO THE FRENCH EDF - FURTHER IN BIELECKI'S ARTICLE IN RZ: “Another aspect of Warsaw's greater distance from Washington is the real chance of awarding the contract for the construction of the second nuclear power plant in our country to the French EDF. The contract for the first one was obtained by the Americans almost automatically. Despite everything, the French had to go away empty-handed when the Swedes obtained the contract for submarines for the Polish Navy.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art44184421-jedrzej-bielecki-emmanuel-macron-w-gdansku-francja-to-plan-b-na-donalda-trumpa

-- 43% OF RESPONDENTS WERE IN FAVOR OF EQUALIZING ZUS BENEFITS FOR SAME-SEX UNIONS, 50.5% AGAINST - IBRIS FOR RZ: “The IBRiS pollster, at the request of 'Rzeczpospolita,' asked Poles if, in their opinion, same-sex couples should receive ZUS benefits equivalent to those of married couples. As many as 40.8% of respondents answered 'definitely not,' which is the highest percentage of responses in this survey. In total, 50.5% of respondents have a negative attitude towards such solutions. As many as 43% of respondents were in favor of equalizing ZUS benefits for same-sex unions (nearly every fourth respondent strongly supports this). 6.5% of respondents are undecided.”https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art44184131-sondaz-dla-rzeczpospolitej-polacy-nie-chca-swiadczen-z-zus-dla-par-jednoplciowych

-- WARSAW AND TRZASKOWSKI UNDER PRESSURE. CHAOS SURROUNDING THE TRANSCRIPTION OF SAME-SEX MARRIAGES - WOJCIECH KARPIESZUK IN GW: “Warsaw may become a symbol of legal chaos: some couples will obtain recognition of same-sex marriage, others will be refused and will go to court. Here are the backstage details of a dispute that damages the government's credibility.”

-- WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A RELATIVELY SMALL GROUP OF VOTERS; THE CIVIC COALITION WAS NEVER A PARTY THAT BUILT ITS IDENTITY SOLELY ON THE RIGHTS OF LGBT PEOPLE; THIS IS NOT OUR MAIN ELECTORATE - ANONYMOUS KO ACTIVIST IN KARPIESZUK'S ARTICLE ON OFFE: “I notice that the government is losing control of this matter, and the majority of the KO electorate supports not only partnership unions but also marriage equality. I ask, is there no fear that this electorate will drift away from the party. – We are talking about a relatively small group of voters. This is not an issue that decides elections. Moreover, LGBT people themselves vote differently, including for the right. Their decisions often stem from many other issues, not just orientation. Moreover, the Civic Coalition was never a party that built its identity solely on the rights of LGBT people – this is not our main electorate – admits a KO activist openly.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,32735450,warszawa-i-trzaskowski-pod-presja-chaos-wokol-transkrypcji.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Gliński turns 72, Andrzej Gałażewski.
 


Łukasz Mężyk