Today's State of Play

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Wielowieyska on Government-Palace Cooperation Amidst Mockery, Kalukin on the Shifting Roles of Tusk and Czarzasty

Łukasz Mężyk

-- POLAND FORFEITED SAFEGUARDS AGAINST MERCORSUR'S IMPACT, PROTECTS ONLY VODKA – PIOTR MAZURKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The Mercosur agreement included over 340 products with designations protected against the import of cheaper equivalents or imitations from other countries. France reported the most, with 63 products, Spain for 59, and Italy for 57. Germany sought special protection for 27. It caused immense outrage that Poland only did so for two products, specifically vodkas.”
https://www.rp.pl/handel/art43671771-polska-odpuscila-zabezpieczenia-przed-skutkami-mercosur-chroni-tylko-wodke

-- FOR NOW, THE AVERAGE POLL FOR MID-JANUARY GIVES TISZA APPROXIMATELY 45% OF THE VOTES, AND FIDESZ APPROXIMATELY 42%. THE SUPPORT FOR BOTH GROUPS IS ALSO CLOSING IN – MICHAŁ PROTAZIUK ON THE HUNGARIAN CAMPAIGN:
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wybory-na-wegrzech-piec-partii-odpadlo-co-wskazuja-sondaze/ns22cek,79cfc278

-- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ: POLAND IS A LINK BETWEEN STATES AND EUROPE – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- REGARDLESS OF THE MOCKERY, THE GOVERNMENT SEEMS TO BE COOPERATING WITH THE PALACE – DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Regardless of the mockery, the government seems to be cooperating with the Presidential Palace to resolve this issue. The President immediately called the Prime Minister, and then his Chancellery sent a request to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for a statement regarding Trump's invitation. No one is in a hurry to respond, although the zealous ones have already reported to the US President.”

-- AND I AM JUST GLAD THAT THESE CONTACTS BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT AND THE PRIME MINISTER EXIST, BECAUSE IT MEANS THEY ARE PLAYING TOGETHER IN A SITUATION OF GREAT TENSION IN TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS – WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Nawrocki will probably inform Trump's people that he would, of course, be very happy to be on the council and that any wish from the USA is important to him, but unfortunately, the bad people, meaning Tusk and Sikorski, are blocking him, and they have the deciding vote and the majority in the Sejm, which allows them to torpedo such a decision. I don't rule out that this was the subject of Tusk's conversation with Nawrocki. And I am just glad that these contacts between the President and the Prime Minister exist, because it means they are playing together in a situation of great tension in transatlantic relations, related, for example, to Trump's threats towards Greenland.”

-- THE GOOD COP, BAD COP TACTIC TOWARDS WASHINGTON. IN THIS VERY DIFFICULT GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION, THIS IS PROBABLY THE ONLY CORRECT STRATEGY – WIELOWIEYSKA STILL IN GW: “Both centers of power are dividing their responsibilities: the government handles Europe, with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz maintaining good relations with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. And the Presidential Palace continuously cultivates ties with Trump. This is the good cop, bad cop tactic towards Washington. In this very difficult geopolitical situation, this is probably the only correct strategy.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32544760,rada-pokoju-alibi-od-rzadu-dla-prezydenta-nawrockiego.html

-- AT THIS MOMENT, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR RAISING THE SECOND TAX THRESHOLD – MINISTER OF FINANCE AND ECONOMY ANDRZEJ DOMAŃSKI TELLS BUSINESS INSIDER IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GRZEGORZ KOWALCZYK: “At this moment, there is no room for raising the second tax threshold. As I said, we need to ensure stable and secure budget revenues. I am, of course, pleased that inflation has finally fallen below the NBP's target. The latest reading of 2.4% is encouraging. If we also look at the prices of food items in the largest retail chains, we can see that they have simply stopped rising too. Wages are growing.”

-- WE ARE NOT WORKING ON A DIGITAL TAX IN THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE. OUR POSITION HAS NOT CHANGED IN ANY WAY – DOMAŃSKI STILL IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “As you know, Mr. Editor, the Ministry of Digital Affairs, under the care of Deputy Prime Minister Gawkowski, is dealing with the digital tax. We are focusing on creating competitive conditions for companies investing in Poland, including in this sector. I will be meeting here in Davos with representatives of companies from this sector, those at the forefront of technology, such as OpenAI. We are committed to creating jobs in Poland – not just any jobs, but jobs in the most advanced sectors that will build the competitiveness of the Polish economy in the coming decades. As I said, we are not working on a digital tax in the Ministry of Finance. Our position has not changed in any way. Whatever happens with this tax will be decided by the government. Prime Minister Tusk will make the decisions.”

-- THERE IS NO ROOM AT THIS MOMENT FOR LARGE, NEW, COSTLY SOCIAL PROGRAMS; IT IS A PITY THAT THE PRESIDENT, WITH HIS DECISIONS AND VETOES OF IMPORTANT LAWS, IS NOT HELPING IN THIS WORK – DOMAŃSKI STILL IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “There is no room at this moment for large, new, costly social programs. We are spending PLN 200 billion annually on security and defense. This is almost 5% of our GDP. Security is our priority. We will modernize the Polish army. Everyone can see the deliveries of new, advanced equipment for the Polish army. In this situation, strong and stable public finances are absolutely crucial. It is a pity that the President, with his decisions and vetoes of important laws, is not helping in this work.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/domanski-w-davos-o-trumpie-progu-podatkowym-i-wydatkach-socjalnych-polski/y742kzz

-- THE SCENARIO OF THE CURRENT 31-MEMBER CLUB SPLITTING INTO SMALLER GROUPS, WITH WHOM NEGOTIATING VOTES WOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT, SEEMS MORE PROBABLE AFTER ALL – RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Despite everything, the scenario of the current 31-member club splitting into smaller groups, with whom negotiating votes would be even more difficult, seems more probable. It is partly for this reason that the Marshal of the Sejm, Włodzimierz Czarzasty, recently excluded representatives of small parliamentary circles (i.e., fewer than 15 members) from the convention of elders. The first to be removed from the parliamentary elite were, of course, Grzegorz Braun's people from Konfederacja Korony Polskiej and the four-person parliamentary group Razem, which emerged from the Lewica club. But in the future – as heard in the Marshal's corridor in the Sejm – this is intended to be a factor preventing potential schismatics within the quarreling Polska 2050.”

-- THE COALITION WILL LIKELY FACE A THOROUGH RESTRUCTURING – RAFAŁ KALUKIN CONTINUES: “The coalition of October 15th will likely face a thorough restructuring. In its original form, it was a balanced political arrangement with Civic Coalition (KO) at the center, the right wing represented by Trzecia Droga, and Lewica on the opposite flank. However, this did not work very well, as the two extreme elements most often clashed and blocked each other. The collapse of Trzecia Droga last summer, however, weakened the pressure from the right, and Tusk himself and his formation began to adopt themes associated with it (e.g., deregulation). Since the campaign of Rafał Trzaskowski, his party has clearly lost its desire to flirt with left-wing sensibilities.”

-- THE EXCHANGE OF ROLES BETWEEN TUSK, WHO ESCAPES INTO MIMICRY, AND THE OFFENSIVE CZARZASTY, WHO IS TO ACT AS A SHIELD AGAINST RIGHT-WING POPULIST ATTACKS – RAFAŁ KALUKIN STILL IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “With the exchange of roles between Tusk, who escapes into mimicry, and the offensive Czarzasty, who is to act as a shield against right-wing populist attacks. The clear division of tasks has been further aided by the marginalization of Rafał Trzaskowski, who for large groups was until recently a benchmark of a left-wing politician.”

-- LEFT-WING POLITICIANS COUNT ON THE DIGITAL TAX BEING BLOCKED, ALTHOUGH THIS IS SUPPOSED TO FIT WITHIN A GENERALLY FRIENDLY MODEL OF RELATIONS – KALUKIN STILL: “The partnership has therefore survived the temporary crisis. Further crises cannot be ruled out, for example, regarding the digital tax on large platforms, which is being pushed by the left-wing Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski. Will Tusk allow a regulation whose only effect will be to anger the American ambassador, given that the President will in no way sign it? Left-wing politicians count on the tax being blocked, although this is supposed to fit within a generally friendly model of relations.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2329135,1,kabaret-polska-2050-to-sie-moze-skonczyc-rozbiorem-koalicje-czeka-gruntowna-przebudowa.read

-- THE PRIME MINISTER IS GOVERNING FROM THE SKI SLOPES – JEDYNKA FAKTU: https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/donald-tusk-wyjechal-na-ferie-polski-premier-zabral-rodzine-we-wloskie-dolomity/02r5exq
 


Łukasz Mężyk