Yesterday's State of Play

STATE OF PLAY: Flieger: PiS Opponents Have Normalized 'Polexit' for Poles, Perhaps Even Pinned It on PiS; Szubartowicz: Can Governance in Poland Be Maintained Through Hegemony and Autocracy?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MIECZYSŁAW CZERNIAWSKI, FORMER MP AND MEMBER OF THE FINANCE COMMITTEE FROM SLD, HAS PASSED AWAY:
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/podlaskie/news-nie-zyje-mieczyslaw-czerniawski-byly-posel-i-prezydent-lomzy,nId,22506595

-- PRZYDACZ: THE MAIN TOPIC OF THE MEETING BETWEEN THE PRIME MINISTER AND THE PRESIDENT WILL BE INTERNATIONAL MATTERS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live

-- EITHER WE ACCEPT THE THEATER, AND A POOR ONE AT THAT, OR WE FORCE THE LEADERS – TUSK AND NAWROCKI – TO AGREE ON MATTERS OF STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “I want to believe that much still depends on us: either we accept the theater, and a poor one at that, or we force the leaders – Donald Tusk and Karol Nawrocki – to agree on matters of strategic importance for Poland.”

-- AFTER 2015, PI(S) POLITICAL OPPONENTS HAVE NORMALIZED THE CONCEPT OF 'POLEXIT' FOR POLES, PERHAPS EVEN PINNING IT ON PI(S). IN THIS CONTEXT, I FEARED A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY - FLIEGER CONTINUES: “I will present a completely unpopular opinion: after 2015, PiS's political opponents have normalized the concept of 'Polexit' for Poles, perhaps even pinning it on PiS. In this context, I feared a self-fulfilling prophecy. An English-speaking publicist would now reach for the phrase 'crying wolf,' which comes from Aesop's fable – 'The Boy Who Cried Wolf.' It was about a shepherd who jokingly shouted that there was a wolf in the pasture. When people rushed to his aid, it turned out the predator wasn't there. And when it actually appeared, no one rushed to help anymore. The wolf ate all the sheep.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43605061-estera-flieger-w-sprawie-bezpieczenstwa-polski-nie-ma-miejsca-na-teatr

-- 'SHOULD POLAND LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION?' - POLLSTER SURVEY FOR SE: 51% DECIDEDLY NO, 10% DECIDEDLY YES: 51% responded 'definitely no.' Another 18% of respondents answered 'rather no,' meaning 69% of the survey participants were against leaving the EU. On the other hand, 10% of respondents answered 'definitely yes,' and 12% chose the answer 'rather yes.' This means a total of 22% of respondents, or more than one in five, were in favor of Poland leaving the EU. 9% of those surveyed had no opinion on the matter.

-- TO THE QUESTION ABOUT ADOPTING THE EURO, AS MANY AS 70% OF RESPONDENTS ANSWERED NEGATIVELY. In contrast, 21% of Poles were in favor of the European currency, and 9% of respondents had not formed an opinion on the matter.
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/poznalismy-obecne-opinie-polakow-o-polexicie-stosunek-do-euro-pozostaje-bez-zmian-aa-LRXX-oLMJ-XY3x.html

-- RADIO ESKA: TUSK AGREED WITH NAWROCKI VIA SMS: As Radio ESKA reporters have learned, Donald Tusk sent an SMS to Karol Nawrocki proposing a meeting. The politicians exchanged several messages.
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/zaskakujace-doniesienia-tusk-umowil-sie-z-nawrockim-przez-sms-a-kulisy-spotkania-aa-9CEs-9cjT-iHcG.html

-- THE MOST IMPORTANT CONFRONTATION - FOR POWER AFTER 2027 - WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN TUSK AND NAWROCKI - PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “The political scene will face many open and hidden battles, in which representatives of all groupings will participate. The most important confrontation – for power after 2027 – will take place between Donald Tusk and Karol Nawrocki. The announcements of warming relations in the name of national security – for example, by organizing a meeting with heads of services – are a theater for those who perceive politics in romantic terms.”

-- WILL THE GOVERNMENT MAINTAIN POWER, OR WILL NAWROCKI UNITE THE RIGHT FROM PiS TO GRZEGORZ BRAUN - SZUBARTOWICZ CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “In essence, the devastating war between the prime minister and the president is about brutally asserting dominance within their own camps and drawing new lines of the Polish divide. And above all, it is about whether the government will maintain power, or whether Nawrocki will unite the right from PiS to Grzegorz Braun.”

-- ON THE RIGHT, A WAR OF ALL AGAINST ALL IS ONGOING, WHICH WILL END THE MOMENT AN eventual POST-ELECTION VISION OF APPOINTING PEOPLE TO STATE-OWNED COMPANIES COMPELS IMMEDIATE BURIAL OF THE HATCHET - SZUBARTOWICZ STILL IN INTERIA: “Braun is also a strictly political problem – because it is difficult for PiS to emulate him, and for Konfederacja to maintain the guise of anti-establishment rebellion. The aggressive politician with the fire extinguisher symbol has pushed the Overton window into the farthest and most repulsive corners, pushing Mentzen and Bosak into positions of almost centrist mainstream. That is why on the right, a war of all against all is ongoing, which will end the moment an eventual post-election vision of appointing people to state-owned companies compels the immediate burial of the hatchet and a joint seizure of power.”

-- THE CLOSER IT GETS TO THE ELECTIONS, THE LOUDER THE QUESTION WILL BECOME: CAN GOVERNANCE IN POLAND BE MAINTAINED THROUGH HEGEMONY AND AUTOCRACY OF TUSK - SZUBARTOWICZ STILL IN INTERIA: “For the prime minister, he is an internal rival precisely because no one of such ambitions and capabilities has yet emerged among the younger generation. The closer it gets to the elections, the louder the question will become: can governance in Poland be maintained through the hegemony and autocracy of the democratic camp, or should one open up to several currents.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-wszyscy-przeciwko-wszystkim,nId,22506252

-- KACZYŃSKI REFERENCED A CONVERSATION WITH A HIGHLY PLACED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION WHO WARNED HIM AGAINST ANY COOPERATION WITH BRAUN - KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: “Another interlocutor adds that the party leader directly stated what he also says at open meetings with voters – that cooperation between PiS and Braun would mean a crisis in Polish-American relations. - Now, in his speech, he also referenced a conversation with a highly placed representative of the American administration who warned him against any cooperation with Braun – reports another MP. – Generally, we should do everything so that after the 2027 elections, Braun is not needed for us to govern – he adds.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-kaczynskiemu-wyrasta-rywal-prezes-pis-ostrzega-odslaniamy-ku,nId,22506524

-- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Belka, Konstanty Radziwiłł, Michał Szułdrzyński.
 


Łukasz Mężyk