Today's State of Play
-- INTERNAL DISPUTES WEAKEN POLAND'S POSITION, WE SIMPLY CANNOT AFFORD RECKLESS DISPUTES BETWEEN THE PRESIDENT AND THE PRIME MINISTER ON SERVICE X - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “I critically assess Karol Nawrocki playing on anti-Ukrainian sentiments in Polish society, but at the same time, he emphasizes – contrary to Konfederacja – the necessity of supporting Kyiv in repelling Russian aggression. Therefore, labelling him as part of a pro-Russian team only undermines the authority of the president, who is engaged in talks with Trump about future peace. For the same reason, it is imprudent for Nawrocki to engage in a war with Tusk.”
-- PUTTING KAROL NAWROCKI IN THE SAME BASKET AS GRZEGORZ BRAUN IS SENSELESS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “Putting Nawrocki in the same basket as Braun is politically effective, but has little to do with facts. Unlike Braun, who directly represents pro-Russian narratives, Nawrocki stands elsewhere: he considers Russia our enemy and seeks support in Washington to defend against Putin. How does this position differ from Tusk’s approach?”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art43567821-michal-szuldrzynski-co-maja-przykryc-twitterowe-wojny-donalda-tuska-i-karola-nawrockiego
-- SZEFERNAKER: IT IS THE PRIME MINISTER WHO ATTACKS THE PRESIDENT. ON MATTERS OF REAL IMPORTANCE, IT HAPPENS THAT THE PRESIDENT RESPONDS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/pl/live
-- IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, THE PRIME MINISTER RECEIVED A KIND OF CONSOLATION PRIZE IN THE FORM OF CIVIC COALITION MAINTAINING ITS FIRST PLACE, THE MAJORITY OF FRIGHTENED SUPPORTERS OF THE GOVERNMENT COALITION CONCENTRATED AROUND TUSK - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN INTERIA: “In the second half of the year, the Prime Minister received a kind of consolation prize in the form of Civic Coalition consistently maintaining its first place in subsequent polls. However, the expected surge in support for PiS in Nowogrodzka, which the 'Nawrocki effect' was supposed to trigger, did not occur. Instead, clear cracks appeared on the PiS monolith. The success of the President of the Institute of National Remembrance was not a great victory, but a hard-won one, after which the majority of frightened supporters of the government coalition rallied around Tusk. This explains why KO, not PiS, became the poll beneficiary of Nawrocki's success.”
-- THE NEW PRESIDENT HAS BEGUN TO BUILD HIS OWN POLITICAL CAMP, NOT TO COMPETE WITH PIS. RATHER, IT IS ABOUT TAKING CONTROL OF THE PARTY - PROF. DUDEK FURTHER IN INTERIA: “Immediately after taking office, the new president began building his own political camp. Of course, not one that would compete with PiS. It's more about taking control of a party that many right-wing voters (especially young ones) associate with Grandpa Jarosław and his musty stories, repeated without significant changes for two decades. Many younger PiS politicians also notice this, although of course they will not confirm it publicly. At least not in the immediate future.”
-- IF THE PRESIDENT SUCCEEDS IN ESTABLISHING A SENATE PACT, HE MAY BECOME THE ACTUAL ARCHITECT OF THE NEXT RULING CAMP - ANTONI DUDEK FURTHER: “If the president succeeds in establishing a senate pact, including a common candidate list from PiS and Konfederacja (and perhaps also Braun’s Korona), then he – not Kaczyński – may become the actual architect of the next ruling camp.”
-- CZARZASTY ALSO SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY COALITION PARTY LEADER WHO MANAGES TO GET SOMETHING FROM TUSK - CLAIMS PROF. DUDEK: “Czarzasty also seems to be the only leader of a coalition party who manages – of course, only from time to time and never publicly – to get something from Tusk, whose dominance in the coalition today seems proportional to KO's poll advantage over its other participants.”
-- GRZEGORZ BRAUN DESERVES THE 'BROWN' MEDAL - DUDEK FURTHER: “Grzegorz Braun deserves the 'brown' medal. After all, he benefited from this year's presidential games even more than Zandberg. One might think that Konfederacja – thanks to Sławomir Mentzen's third place – should have seen an increase in support, but it turned out otherwise.”
-- A NEW CONSTITUTION IS NAWROCKI'S STRATEGIC GOAL - DUDEK IN HIS CONCLUSION FOR INTERIA: “This will, of course – in the event of a coalition – provide them with a majority in the next Sejm sufficient to form a government, but still too small to push through the project of a new constitution, which would significantly strengthen presidential power, and this is Nawrocki's strategic goal.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-medal-zloty-srebrny-i-brunatny-podsumowanie-2025-roku-w-pols,nId,22503346
-- ENOUGH SAID - THE POLITICAL WINNER OF THIS YEAR IS KAROL NAWROCKI - IWONA SZPALA AND AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “Enough said – the political winner of this year is Karol Nawrocki. Little known before, he won the casting for PiS’s candidate, and then – the presidency itself. Thanks to Jarosław Kaczyński, he burst into national politics.”
-- CIVIC COALITION MAINTAINS FIRST POSITION IN RANKINGS, IS SEVERAL PERCENTAGE POINTS AHEAD OF PIS, BUT IT IS FAR TOO LITTLE - SZPALA AND KONDZIŃSKA FURTHER IN GW: “Civic Coalition maintains its first position in the rankings, several percentage points ahead of PiS, but it is far too little to repeat the success of 2023 in the elections in two years. Of Tusk’s coalition partners, only the Left is above the electoral threshold, which does not guarantee a parliamentary majority. However, it gives the Left a second wind, which it caught with the change in the Sejm Marshal’s chair.”
-- IT IS ALREADY CLEAR WHAT TUSK WILL USE IN THE 2027 CAMPAIGN. HE TALKS ABOUT A 'BROWN' COALITION THAT WILL LEAD POLAND OUT OF THE EU - KONDZIŃSKA AND SZPALA FURTHER IN GW: “Donald Tusk is politically exploiting the conflict that has gone beyond Nowogrodzka. Since the presidential election, he has been talking about the end of the Kaczyński era, and is increasingly positioning himself against Nawrocki. Additionally, he is pushing PiS towards radicalism with the vision of governing with Braun and Konfederata. This gambit is timely because PiS has not yet responded to which direction it will go. Such hedging has its political price. And it is already clear that Tusk will use it in the 2027 campaign. He talks about a 'brown' coalition that will lead Poland out of the Union, normalize relations with Russia, and leave us geopolitically isolated.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,32481023,rok-w-polityce-kilka-zwyciestw-w-tym-jedno-gorzkie-i-jedna.html
-- 2026 MAY BRING A CORRECTION, BRAUN IS MOBILIZING THE FORMER OCTOBER 15 ELECTORATE TO CREATE A UNITED RESISTANCE FRONT, POLITICS IN 2026 PROMISES TO BE TRANSITIONAL, AN ERRATUM, A CORRECTION TO 2025 - JERZY BACZYŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA NEW YEAR'S ISSUE: “The year 2026 may bring a correction. The pendulum has swung too quickly and too far from left to right. In America, midterm congressional elections may take away the Republicans' majority; support for Trump has fallen to 36 percent. The European Union has already made a self-correction, reducing ambitious climate goals, tightening its migration policy, and undertaking the financial effort of aid for Ukraine and armaments in case of Russian attack and US passivity. In Poland, the rise in KO's ratings and the crisis in PiS confirm the shift in sentiment after the elections. And Braun is mobilizing the former October 15 electorate to create a united resistance front against the right-wing's madness. The air will also start to go out of Nawrocki, who is inflated with pride today. In Polish, European, and global politics, 2026 promises to be transitional, an erratum, a correction to 2025. Much indicates that the adjustments will move towards realism and reason. Let's hope so.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2327097,1,trump-cesarzem-lokalnych-trumpkow-ale-2026-moze-byc-rokiem-korekty
-- STRUZIK REMAINS ADAMANT. CONTRARY TO THE MINISTRY, HE APPOINTED A KO COUNCILLOR AS DIRECTOR OF THE MUSEUM OF LITERATURE - ROMAN PAWŁOWSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “The Mazovian Voivodeship Board, at its last meeting before Christmas, appointed KO councilor Beata Michalec as the head of the Museum of Literature in Warsaw – we learned unofficially from three sources. Beata Michalec has been a Warsaw KO councilor for two terms; her husband, Paweł Michalec (KO), was the mayor of Żoliborz and is currently the mayor of the Wawer district. In the 2023 parliamentary elections, she unsuccessfully ran for a parliamentary seat on behalf of KO. Michalec has no experience in the field of literary history. For several years, she was the deputy director of the Museum of Independence, subordinate to Marshal Struzik. Earlier, she worked as a kindergarten director.”
https://oko.press/struzik-michalec-muzeum-literatury
-- BIRTHDAYS: Sylwester Tułajew, Bartosz Arłukowicz, Tomasz Głogowski.
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