Today's State of Play

POLITICAL STANDING: PiS Gains in OGB Polls and Braun Nearly Overtakes Confederation, Morawiecki Seeks a Broad Right-Wing Tent à la Reagan, GW Warns of Resuming Tree Logging

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PIŚ GAINS IN OGB POLLS AND IS ALMOST LEVEL WITH BRAUN'S CONFEDERATION:
Civic Coalition 35.3% (-2.7)
Law and Justice 31.2% (+3.2)
Confederation of the Polish Crown 11.2% (+2.3)
Confederation 10.7% (-3.3)
The Left 4.95% (+0.7)
Razem 3.33% (+0.5)
Polish People's Party 1.7% (-1)
Poland 2050 1.66% (+0.3)
https://x.com/Stan360PL/status/2001178444151886191?s=20

-- ON THE RIVALRY BETWEEN BRAUN AND THE CONFEDERATION - LUKASZ PAWLOWSKI ON THE OGB SURVEY: Braun's party is catching up to the Confederation among the 18-39 age group (Braun received the highest support among all age groups in the presidential election among those aged 30-39 - 10%). Braun's party has equaled Confederation's support among men. Braun's party has overtaken Confederation in rural areas. Braun's party is now the second-largest party among voters declaring right-wing views.
https://x.com/LukasPawlowski/status/2001179201295000051?s=20

-- WE NEED TO RETURN TO THE MODEL OF SEEKING BROAD SUPPORT FROM ALL RIGHT-WING CIRCLES. JUST AS U.S. PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN DID ONCE AND FOREVER CHANGED AMERICAN POLITICS, AND BY THE WAY - SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE FALL OF THE EVIL EMPIRE - MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI: "Unity means honest debate, not marginalizing 90% of the community and competing on radicalism. That is why we must return to the model of seeking broad support from all right-wing circles. Just as U.S. President Ronald Reagan did once, forever changing American politics, and by the way - significantly contributing to the fall of the evil empire, i.e., the USSR. Today, to defeat common enemies - domestic, political ones - and those external ones who threaten us with war, we must unite. Let's fight this government that is harmful to Poland. Let's fight Brussels' centralist ambitions. Let's fight the harmful Green Deal ideology. Let's fight the Migration Pact. Let's fight for secure, sealed borders. Let's fight the budget deficit. Let's fight for better healthcare. Let's not fight the Polish right. Let's not fight among ourselves."
https://x.com/MorawieckiM/status/2001185594463150560?s=20

-- I AM CALM REGARDING THE SITUATION WITHIN THE PARTY BECAUSE JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI REMAINS THE PARTY LEADER - SAID JOACHIM BRUDZIŃSKI ON "PORANNY RING" - 300LIVE:
https://300polityka.pl/pl/live/2025-12-17/

-- EUROPE IS BECOMING THE SAFEST CEMETERY OF INNOVATION - PAWEL ROŻYŃSKI IN RZ: "European business is protesting and wants the suspension of regulations. It is evident that the Union is increasingly falling behind the USA and China in the field of technology, and businesses are losing competitiveness. The Union has embarked on thorough regulation of something that defies rigid paragraphs. Changes in AI are so dynamic that any regulation becomes obsolete after a week."
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art43512861-pawel-rozynski-europa-staje-sie-najbezpieczniejszym-cmentarzem-innowacji

-- "LEX SZYSZKO II". THE TUSK GOVERNMENT WANTS TO FACILITATE TREE LOGGING IN POLAND - JAKUB CHEŁMIŃSKI IN GW: "A new idea for the 'deregulation' of tree logging has already passed through the committee of MP Ryszard Petru, and on Wednesday, December 17th, the Sejm is to consider it. Environmentalists warn that logging could be as massive as during the infamous 'lex Szyszko' law. - This is not deregulation at all, but a concession to developers or other large businesses who can profit from it - assesses Radosław Ślusarczyk from the Workshop for All Beings."
https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,32474598,lex-szyszko-ii-w-ramach-deregulacji-rzad-proponuje-ulatwienie.html

-- THE PRESIDENT HAS BECOME THE NEW LEADER ON THE RIGHT - JACK NIŻKIEWICZ IN RZ: "Nawrocki's success did not bring a bonus to PiS. It's even worse. The president has become the new leader on the right. Undeniably, the past year belongs to Karol Nawrocki, not Jarosław Kaczyński. The head of state plays his own political game, to which Nowogrodzka (PiS headquarters) often has to adapt, as evidenced by the chain law and the cryptocurrency case."

-- 2026 WILL BE AN EXCEPTIONALLY DIFFICULT TIME FOR PIS - NIZINKIEWICZ FURTHER IN RZ: "Unfortunately for PiS, Nawrocki's victory has triggered a new political dynamic that has ultimately strengthened everyone except the party that nominated him. The year 2026 will be an exceptionally difficult time for PiS."
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art43504361-jacek-nizinkiewicz-pozar-w-pis-czy-partia-bezpowrotnie-stracila-czesc-wyborcow-na-rzecz-obu-konfederacji

-- THE POLISH TABLE - GIVEN THE GENERAL DIPLOMATIC DEGRADATION OF THE OLD CONTINENT - IS NOW IN THE SECOND ROW - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: "What is important is that - in not very significant talks - Poland finally participated. Does that sound strange? It shouldn't. Within NATO countries, we are spending record amounts on armaments. Russian missiles are aimed at us. Therefore, Poland's place is at the European negotiation tables. However, this table - given the general diplomatic degradation of the Old Continent - is now in the second row. Well, it happened, though, without our participation."
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-pobozne-zyczenia-kanclerza-niemiec,nId,22499088

-- THE STATE IS HELPLESS IN THE FACE OF THE WAVE OF VIOLENCE TARGETING UKRAINIANS - MICHAŁ OLSZEWSKI IN GW: "Such a social catastrophe is happening before our eyes. The crimes against Ukrainians living in Poland in recent months are not incidents, but a chain of dramatic events with no end in sight. And which journalists, activists, and Ukrainians themselves have been warning about for a long time. All these warnings were like crying in the wilderness. (...) And so we find ourselves at a point where speaking Ukrainian on the street or in a tram becomes an act of great courage."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,32474472,kleska-ukrainska-pod-flaga-bialo-czerwona-panstwo-jest-bezradne.html

-- GERMANY HAS VERY ACCURATELY UNDERSTOOD THE POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS MATTER FOR PRIME MINISTER TUSK - GERMAN AMBASSADOR - ON REPARATIONS FOR SURVIVORS OF GERMAN OCCUPATION IN CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ KOKOT IN GW: "However, I would like to remind you that the German government made such a proposal to Poland in 2024, and these funds were even preliminarily included in the German budget at that time. However, the sum of 200 million euros was considered insufficient by the Polish side. From this perspective, we would have had a resolution to this issue a year and a half ago. I assure you, however, that Germany has very accurately understood the political significance of this matter for Prime Minister Tusk."

-- STATEMENTS REGARDING THIS COURT PROCEEDINGS ARE NOT NECESSARILY NECESSARY - GERMAN AMBASSADOR ON PRIME MINISTER TUSK'S WORDS ABOUT THE COURT RULING regarding the defendant accused of blowing up Nord Stream 2, stating that the perpetrators of the attack deserve a medal rather than condemnation, and Germany should remain silent on the matter.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,32471917,ambasador-niemiec-w-polsce-zamiast-o-reparacjach-mowmy-o-przyszlosci.html

-- IS SOMEONE HERE STEPPING INTO PiS'S SHOES? SPECIFICALLY, THE CIVIC COALITION - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON JACK HARŁUKOWICZ'S ARTICLE IN ONE:
https://x.com/DWielowieyska/status/2001164014059966640?s=20

-- THE PLATFORM'S GOLDEN BOY CONNECTS BUSINESS WITH POLITICS. "HE KNOWS EVERYONE, SO HE MONETIZES HIS CONNECTIONS" - JACK HARŁUKOWICZ IN ONE: "He used to play football with Donald Tusk and was considered one of Platform's 'golden boys.' Today, he connects big business people with ministers. And he earns well from it. For a meeting with government representatives 'on the side,' one has to pay from 15 to 35 thousand PLN. - He doesn't tolerate opposition, and if someone stands up to him, it ends with threats - his colleagues from politics and business say about Maciej Bogucki."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/zloty-chlopiec-platformy-haratal-z-tuskiem-w-gale-dzis-bryluje-w-biznesie/026gksn,79cfc278

-- BIRTHDAYS: Elżbieta Witek, Jacek Cichocki, Adam Jarubas, Anna Sztark, Tadeusz Dziuba, Maciej Nowak, Dariusz Piontkowski.
 


Łukasz Mężyk